Whether we’re tanking or not can still be up for argument (19 games left, currently 10th best odds, 0.5 a game out of 8th odds, 2.5 games out of 6th, with 17 games to go), but it’s never too early to think about our roster for next season.
We have the following contracts.
[Contracts](https://imgur.com/f7DTHhn.png)
I think it’s all but assured that Rudy Gay, THT, and Damian Jones will pick up their player options. The FO was negotiating with Clarkson to see if we could keep him around, but it sounds like he’s on the fence and will explore his options. Meanwhile, Olynyk is only guaranteed for $3M next season, so we could get even more savings by letting him go.
Bolmaro, Dok are already guaranteed gone. JTA will be a UFA.
Therefore, our roster becomes the following.
1. Lauri Markkanen
2. Walker Kessler
3. Ochai Agbaji
4. Collin Sexton
5. Simone Fontecchio (yes, his contract is guaranteed for one more season)
6. Rudy Gay (PO)
7. Talen Horton-Tucker (PO)
8. Damian Jones (PO)
9. Jazz FRP (curr. #10)
10. Wolves FRP (curr. #18)
11. Worst of Brooklyn, Houston, Philly FRP (curr. #27)
12. Jordan Clarkson? (PO)
13. Kris Dunn?
14. FA signing #1?
15. FA signing #2?
16. Johnny Juzang? (Two-Way #1?)
17. Two-way #2?
That makes 11 roster spots we’re fairly certain to fill.
I think the biggest questions are the following.
1\. Can we convince Jordan Clarkson to return on his player option?
If we does, we might get a sign-and-trade for him at the trade deadline. Otherwise, he walks. I think we definitely see what his asking price is, but I also think we let him test the free agency waters, since him declining his PO means more cap space for us. He probably wants more years (3 or 4) than we’re willing to give him since this may be his last big bag and I think some team may be convinced he’s the missing piece they need to make a run. If multiple teams want him, we may be able to pull off a sign-and-trade, though we may not have the leverage to do so.
2\. Will we keep Olynyk or cut him before his contract guarantees?
If we cannot find enough decent players to finish out the roster, have the cap left over, and cannot find any trades for him, we might hold onto him. He’s a big who can shoot (40% this season!) and pass at a decent level. Yeah, he often looks goofy, his drives look downright awkward, and he’s good for a few mental gaffes a game, but he’s still surprisingly effective. His contract ($12M expiring after next season) isn’t super heavy and he might be a candidate to get dealt during the season if we guarantee him.
Otherwise, we have the option to cut him before 6/28 for cap savings (his $12M contract becomes $3M guaranteed).
3\. How might we wheel and deal our draft picks leading up to the 2023 draft?
Though we already have enough talent to not be among the basement dwellers, we may want to try to load up on talent now so we can try to align with the young group of Markkanen/Walker/Agbaji/Sexton, with two rookies on rookie contracts and two guys locked up for 2 (Markkanen) and 3 (Sexton) more seasons respectively.
If we packaged, say, one of the lower two picks with a future protected pick (like the Cavs 2025 or the Wolves 2029 protected) to move this year’s T’Wolves pick into the lottery, I wouldn’t be surprised. Examples in past years include the Fultz/Tatum trade (1/3 swap, sending Langford at #14) and the Luka/Trae trade (3/5 swap, sending Reddish at #10). I think a future protected pick of some sort (like 1-8 protected, idk) doesn’t seem too high of a price to pay to move up like 6 spots to go from like #18 to #12, for instance.
We may also be incentivized in this manner because we have a lot of roster spots and not a lot of quality depth. I would not be surprised if we parted with Fontecchio/Gay/Jones after the upcoming season. Dunn’s return is not guaranteed either, though bringing him in on a vet min is within reason.
4\. What will we do with our remaining cap for free agents?
The cap is jumping to $134M next season. We have $93M in contracts, $84M if we cut Olynyk, $70M if Clarkson declines his PO. We’ll give up some dead cap to our FRPs, but we can delay signing them until FAs are signed.
Considering our 2024 FRP is sent to the Thunder (protected 1-10), I think our free agency priorities are thus.
* First, even though that FRP persists after 2024 (protected 1-10 in 2025, 1-8 in 2026… yuck), our options are to be a lotto team for three more seasons (lol) or bite the bullet and send over as bad of a pick as possible (aka we have a good record as soon as we can ensure it).
* Do not sign any ball-dominant players to long-term contracts. The ball is ideally in Lauri’s or Collin’s hands and it should stay there, barring injury. That means no Kelly Oubre, no Kuz (despite the Utes connection), no FVV, no GTJ, do not offer Clarkson a 4 or 5 year contract, etc.
* This is a bit terrifying to suggest, considering the Poole incident, but maybe see if Draymond wants to play for us. We could use a defensive-minded veteran presence, and I think he could really accelerate the growth of various players (Kessler, Agbaji, FRPs). Of course, I also understand if he asks for too much in FA or doesn’t want to play for us altogether.
* Outbid other teams for at least one solid role player in their prime for a fat 2-3 year contract (e.g., Jerami Grant, Cameron Johnson), giving them a chance to secure one more bag before they start declining. Bonus points if they can shoot 3’s and play PF for maximum lineup synergy. A shorter contract benefits us for obvious reasons (our history of getting FAs and the option to reset our cap again in a few years).
* Chase depth guys entering UFA who may get lowballed by their current teams, like Mo Wagner, Jalen McDaniels, Austin Reaves, or Yuta Watanabe.
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Okay, I kind of ran out of steam at this point, but feel free to sound off with any other moves you want to see us make.
* Any specific players we should to go after?
* Any particular player archetype (i.e., 3&D wings, veteran backup center, steady ball handler, etc.) we should pursue?
* Any ideas on trying to move out certain players who we do not want to see next season?
* Thoughts on what would help us get the most out of the upcoming draft?
by epoch_fail
8 Comments
The variables are very…. Variable? Between 3 months and now. We’re looking at getting a solid contributor or an International super-star that could improve the very economy of the city and state.
Get a top 3 pick and draft Henderson. If not hope Anthony Black, or Carson Wallace are there at 10, if picked before, then trade pick 10, pick 18, and a future Cavs first and hope we can trade for Anthony, or Carson. That’s if we actually have pick 10, and pick 18
Hope Dame asks for a trade, and trade for him. Alright, those are unlikely, here some realistic stuff, that I want to happen
Sign Cam Johnson to a 4 year 95 million dollar contract, he could be current Bojan, a 40 percent from three power forward
If we can’t get Henderson, Anthony, or Carson, find whatever is the best floor general, and sign them. I do actually wouldn’t mind Draymond, he’s a good floor general, leader (ok not really because he punched Poole, but he has finals experience). Collin isn’t a floor general, so Draymond being the floor general would be perfect. Problem is, he might want an expensive contract, but maybe offer a 3 year front loaded, 3rd year team option contract for 100 million. Remember Boozer, and Bojan are the only good players to sign here
Whatever is left, sign bench players. I don’t have any rookies in this hypothetical situation, as I don’t know who we draft
Collin, Agbaji, Lauri, Draymond, Walker, with Cam Johnson being our sixth man 40% from three shooter to make three’s off the bench would be a solid lineup. We’d have salary left over to sign a backup center, and maybe a bench floor general. Obviously who we draft likely changes that, as if we get Carson, or Anthony, they’d start instead of Collin
We need to keep cap space for next off season as that is when we can renegotiate and extend with Markkanen. The plan is to offer him the max, $35 to $ 40 million depending on the cap, for the 24-25 season in exchange for him extending for two-three new years way below this. If we can get away with paying him $40 million for that year and an average of $30 million for the next three, we are very well set up for the future. That would be three years $112 in new money and a good deal for all sides as long as he stays healthy and continues to improve.
I`d also expect the front office to offer Clarkson something like 2/$40 with the second year a ~~player~~ team option if he does not get any long term offers he likes. That way we would have salary matching for a big trade while keeping a guy we really like happy by both paying him and giving him another season to shine as our second or third option.
I’d be interested to see if we could get a first round pick from the heat to take on Kyle Lowry and maybe we’d send Olynyk to the Heat as part of the trade. (We could buy out Lowry)
And agree on the Clarkson point would be happy to lose him there is a risk of overpaying in terms of salary and length
The Jazz have a lot of very nice, moveable contracts (THT, Olynyk, Gay all expiring and easy to package to match salary) so I expect they will be very aggressive in trying to package those guys plus picks for players (even if it isn’t a star). They will have plenty of cap space but I don’t see them going after top free agents, but rather focusing on guys like Grant Williams and Cam Johnson. The second a star becomes available they will probably come in with a strong offer and make sure they get the guy they want. That could be this summer or next, but I expect it to happen relatively soon.
As for the draft they will likely pick 7-10 and there will be a lot of good players to choose from. While I love Anthony Black I can see Ainge really falling for Ausar Thompson. He tends to go after guys with the athletic traits of a star and try’s to develop them. For that reason I think he could go hard after Ausar or even Whitmore if he falls. Jaylen Brown had the athletic traits but was very raw coming out. He shot 29% from 3 and wasn’t a good playmaker yet. Ainge could see a similar projection with Cam and Ausar and pick them over Black.
Tldr
Clarkson is a big question mark. He can be great, but I still think his best role is a 6th man scorer. I don’t think he’d be happy going back to that role for the Jazz, and he’d probably be too expensive to keep around just for that role.
We need a big win from the draft or free agency. I understand the tank this year, but if we bomb next year we run the risk of ruining player and coaching morale. I don’t want us to waste Hardy and Lauri’s years
Can we not see Rudy Gay next season? What do we need to get for that?