[Andy Larsen on Twitter explaining his thought process:](https://twitter.com/andyblarsen/status/1646680161738444800?s=46&t=hc5NrTRIWu5hhJBvuuWS9g)
> Basically… the advanced stats all favor Kessler, and I’ve always been an analytically-oriented voter. I think I would have made this vote even if I covered another team.
> Here’s where the rookies rank in EPM, and here’s what I wrote in explaining my vote.
His charts and full explanation are attached as images connected to his tweet, so click the link if you want to see them.
by AashyLarry
50 Comments
I wonder who he voted for MVP!
Edit: he actually voted Embiid, wow
Who ever is his dealer stop holding out and share bro.
dude is a homer, it’s that simple. Banchero was the first option as a rookie on a team that ended up winning way more games than people expected.
advanced stats are being abused
holding efficiency against a 19 year old rookie putting up 20 a game on a tanking team … watch the games buddy
[removed]
I think its a completely valid choice and you can argue Kessler’s rim protection helps his team win more than Banchero’s volume scoring at this stage.
Yeah its not what ROY historically has been but there is absolutely an argument for choosing Kessler
How am I supposed to tell my children that Paolo won ROTY despite having a worse PER, BPM, OBPM, VORP, WS, WS/48, EPM, RAPTOR WAR, and RAPTOR than Kessler?
Am I insane or does it seem like advanced stats overrate rim protection like… a lot.
I dont think its that crazy of a vote. I would vote for Paolo bc I think it will age better and I dont think of ROY as like an MVP but for rookies, I think of it more as like “who is the closest to a star already” but if someone wanted to argue Kessler was a more impactful player this year I wouldnt argue.
Also, who cares about unanimous ROY?
He didnt even put banchero second lol
Analytically-oriented AKA dont watch ball
Kessler is a really good player but rookie of the year is the rookie who stood out the most or showed the most greatness to me
And comparing metrics between a player who was put who was put in the best possible situations and another player who had to figure it out as he went along is dumb. Especially with rookies
ROY is an offensive player award.
Banchero has the worst plus minus on the Magic. Kessler has a positive plus minus despite being on a non playoff team. The Magic are significantly better with Banchero on the bench. And of course, the advanced stats are going to favor the guy shooting 72% from the field who plays great defense vs the inefficient volume scorer who isn’t a good defender. I wouldn’t blame anybody voting Kessler for ROY but i’d take Jalen Williams personally.
“EVEN If I covered another team” 🤔
ROY is unique that it’s about skills they’ve shown and potential; not impact, production and efficiency.
Riiiight lol
Whatever. It’s not like it’s the deciding vote. Paolo was very impressive but was pretty inefficient too, far and away deserves the award but still.
Kessler had a very impressive season, blocked an absurd amount of shots and was 72% from the field (low volume, most all obvious open shots and putbacks, etc. but cool for a rookie). If your own team’s journalist won’t give you any credit then who else will
Tldr: 🤓
I guess it depends on how you view the award. The player you think showed the most potential, or the best player this year. I think if your goal this year was to win games and make the playoffs, a vast majority of teams would take Kessler over banchero this year. To me Kessler is the rookie of the year because he was the player who helped his team win the most in my opinion. Just because a player shows high potential in their rookie year doesn’t just automatically mean that they performed well towards winning that year.
I generally like Andy but this is a bit far imo lol
Tbf, he’s definitely an “analytics guy” without a statistical background (that I know of, pretty sure his background is the normal journalism stuff) so misusing things like on/off by ignoring confounding variables is not too crazy for him
Whether you agree with it or not I’m not gonna fault someone from putting Kessler Williams or Banchero first, as long as you have a rational argument for it.
(its fine. Paolo’s season didn’t scream UNANIMOUS ROY anyway)
Someone is getting their voting privileges revoked next season
Outjerked by Andy Larsen
What a fucking homer
kessler had a great rookie year too. yeah he didnt start the year really well and had limited minutes at first but paolo wasnt as consistent either and had terrible stretches.
Keegan Murray 3rd? Light that beam
Kessler has had a nice season. S/O Woodward academy putting another one in the league but this is nonsense. Paolo has been the clear guy from day 1.
So if he’s so analytically oriented he voted for Jokic and not Embiid… Right???
MF just biased.
better have voted Timelord for all nba then if it’s all about metrics lol.. some of these guys get too cute, analytics are an important part of the game but 30/30 gms are taking Paolo over Walker. and i say that as a huge Walker fan
Honestly ok with this. I think it’s evident that Banchero is the more talented player and imo he shoud¿ld be ROTY, plus the role of a 1st-2nd offensive option is tougher than that of a backup big that mostly just protects the rim. However, I can definitely see the argument that Kessler´s play was more conducive to winning, as very rarely are rookies even winning players at all (even the best ones) and I don’t know if Banchero was.
Man I wish the voters got more attention. Why even bother with the actual awards ?
Paolo’s legacy is ruined.
Nerd
Analytics has ruined the nba man Jesus Christ
I mean yeah I would’ve voted Paolo too but I don’t think it’s that crazy to vote Kessler
Ahh just realized he’s a Jazz journalist. Optics there aren’t great chief.
Making analytics the basis of ROY voting will mean that low-usage role-playing rooks on good teams will always be favoured over high-usage lead guards/wings on bad teams.
It’s nonsensical. I’m not saying it doesn’t have a role, but it feels like it’s swinging a bit too far one direction.
Honestly as a Magic fan who follows this team and watches tons of games Paolo started super hot, then played god awful for months, then slowly returned to serviceable starter levels which is where he finished.
So idk who else would get roty but I would totally understand if he didn’t win. Because he was actually bad for 70% of the season. But it seems like everyone kinda sucked so he deservedly won.
We can argue semantics but I would go as far to say most everyone in this thread is taking Paolo over Kessler if they had to build around one player out of this past years draft
Does the fact Kessler was traded for Gobert make his performance stand out more? He was traded for a 3x DPOY but is averaging 2.3 blocks and 8.4 rebounds his rookie year. Meanwhile Gobert may not even play Friday.
As someone who plays fantasy basketball Kessler is my rookie of the year too.
Rookie of the year isn’t hard to figure out. Who had the best numbers or had the greatest impact on a winning team
It cracks me up that idiot homers like this literally get to determine how much these grown ass professional athletes are allowed to be paid
Advanced stats are the worst thing to happen to the nba, people don’t watch they just pick whichever random advanced stat says their favourite player is better and treat it as gospel.
Paolo is a going to be great but let’s not act like he had some luka rookie season. His shooting was awful and his team was better with him off the court
Yes he could’ve been unanimous but tbh that’s more of a testament to the other rookies in the class having good but unspectacular seasons. Yes Paolo was impressive in terms of averaging 20 ppg as a rookie but he was also a 6’10 PF shooting 42% for a bad team. Does that really deserve an unanimous vote?
Just reminds me of Chuck Swirsky, the old Raptors announcer, who had a vote and was the only one who chose Bargnani over Brandon. Shameless stuff to me. If you’re the only one against unanimous then it’s you who had the problem.
People should stop caring about unanimous MVPs for this reason. It’s a homer vote for sure, but not a crazy one like picking PatBev for MVP or something.
Paulo won ROTY by a landslide. A single voter didnt influence that. Nothing else matters