Someone at ESPN needs to fix this projections analysis, theres clearly something wrong with it. Teams are 0-149 when down 0-3 in the playoffs, and they’re saying the celtics have more than 1/4 odds to win the series still??
https://www.espn.com/nba/bpi/_/view/playoffs
by riceybois
33 Comments
Mike Malone is gonna be so mad about this for some reason.
They’ve even been making fun of this on ESPN this morning. The algorithm was just not equipped for what the Heat have done which just goes to show how unique/impressive their run has been IMO.
I don’t think people understand how modeling and probabilities work.
People are overreacting to these formulas man. BPI takes into account what has taken place place during the season/post season, and the heat were dogshit and were a couple bad plays from missing the playoffs. Teams like this dont bust the doors down during the playoffs. Until the one time they do. Now. Its called in outlier. Always gonna be outliers.
It’s not based on any data or analytics. It’s really just based on opponent and the Heat are an 8 seed. That big of a disparity between their seeding and also record is why
Sounds like they received a 25% buffer for being named the Celtics
Lakers have a better chance of coming back bc it seems their players are actually interested unlike Brown and Horford
lol it says Boston has a 15% chance of winning the finals still while the Heat have a 12% chance
Can’t wait for the latest ESPN’s “the Celtics have a 0% chance of making the finals despite being down 0-4” ☠️
Leave us alone. It’s over, we’ll try again next year.
We shouldn’t take those number seriously. It’s now for clicks not for accurate reporting.
Are the world trying to prank me???
I ain’t falling for this shit.
I think the teams who were up 3-0 has 194-0 record to win the series.
The 17-18 Warriors are the ONLY team that could pull this one off.
IIT people that don’t understand probabilistic models.
I think y’all confusing possibility vs probability. They’re 1 of 4 teams left giving them a 25% possibility (chance) of going to the finals. Factoring in their 25%, and down 0-3, the probability is more like .25%.
I wish ESPN would make a sportsbook
ESPN’s analytics only accounts for talent, roster construction, %’s in certain stats, etc. They don’t account for coaching and DAWG/36. That’s where Miami and Boston are in 2 different leagues.
The model doesn’t account for dawg in them
This team getting booed off the court tomorrow night lol. This series is completely over. Jimmy and Bam have gutted them alive
Kevin Pelton being exposed as a clown right now.
Boston will probably still have a 20% chance when they go down 0-4.
BPI is meh
You know they say that all men are created equal, but you look at me and you look at Mazulla Joe and you can see that statement is not true. See, normally if you go one on one with another wrestler, you got a 50/50 chance of winning. But I’m a genetic freak and I’m not normal! So you got a 25%, AT BEST, at beat me. Then you add Spo to the mix, your chances of winning drastic go down. See the 10 way, at Miami, you got a 33 1/3 chance of winning, but I, I got a 66 and 2/3 chance of winning, because Tatum KNOWS he can’t beat me and he’s not even gonna try!
So Mazulla Joe, you take your 33 1/3 chance, minus my 25% chance and you got an 8 1/3 chance of winning the series. But then you take my 75% chance of winning, if we was to go one on one, and then add 66 2/3 per cents, I got 141 2/3 chance of winning the series. See Joe, the numbers don’t lie, and they spell disaster for you at Game 4.
– Jimmy B
This team of quitters having a 25% chance to do something no NBA team has ever done before? Is that not direct proof the statistics are beyond flawed?
This means, mathematically, that they’re giving the Celtics approximately a 71% chance to win each game. Which isn’t insane unless you see how the Celtics have been playing recently.
Celtics down 3-0 and have higher chance of title than Miami up 3-0. 😭
Yeah they’re not even trying to hide their bias at this point
I’m guessing it has something to do with the fact that teams down 0-3 have forced game 7s before and these Celtics have a pretty good game 7 record.
Lmao the bigger thing is the fact the celtics have the higher chance at winning a title @17% than the The Heat @14% despite them being down 0-3 at the moment lmao
That implies the Celtics have about a 71% chance to win each of the remaining games, on average. I’m not shocked that the analytics model would get to that number. The Celtics were a significantly better team throughout the regular season, and it’s not like the computer is actually watching the games.
4 teams left aren’t there? Same thing with the probability of dinosaurs being extinct: there are two possible outcomes, either they are extinct or they aren’t. It’s a 50-50 chance
No
Don’t worry Lakers fans, they gave you guys a better chance of coming back from 3-0 down than they initially gave miami to win this series, and look at miami now
Algorithm does not account for heart.
This model is obviously dumb af obviously. I by no means think Boston is going to come back, but someone’s going to come back from 0-3 one day it’s inevitable that it’s going to happen eventually