NBA Finals predictions; ESPN – Denver winning with 88.7% chance, 538 – Denver winning with 73% chance, Basketball Reference – Denver winning with 70.6% chance.
Do you think these odds are fair?
Source:
[ESPN](https://www.espn.com/nba/bpi/_/view/playoffs/sort/playoffs.probwintitle/dir/desc)
[538](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-predictions/)
[Basketball Reference](https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.html)
by The_Dumblebee
29 Comments
11.3%? We’re finally getting some respect!
Cool! Keep the jinx coming
It’s Denver’s turn!
ESPN really willing a Heat win
So, Miami in 7 then
Heat play far better when they are the underdogs
Feel like Martin and Butler should be able to just solely stick to Murray the whole game. Let Spo and Bam try their best against Jokic and let the chips fall.
Nice what are the Celtics’ odds to win?
Odd they didn’t specify they predictions still showing 11% for Boston to still miraculously pull through from Cancun
The Heat are brutal but even accounting for talent and home court and health, The fact remains when They had a 3-0 lead it went to 7, when Denver had a 3-0 lead, they swept their opponent. You could argue The Celtics are better than The Lakers but I wouldn’t.
Heat will win game 1, this place will explode with fatherhood fantasies about Jimmy Butler, then Denver will win the next 4, with game 5 being the lowest televised ratings, as the NBA realizes the best player in the league is not a player the NBA hype machine was designed to promote.
Hmmm idk I think heat are at like 3%
[How many times do we have to teach you this lesson old man?](https://youtu.be/ymHyOmlUlP0)
Vegas is at about a -400, which is 80%. Seems fair IMO.
I want to root for the Heat because of Jimmy but the Nuggets have never won a chip. I guess I’ll be happy with whoever wins, lol.
I don’t like how people are counting out Miami
We are better on paper but that’s been the case for arguably every series they’ve played (except maybe NYK) and idk I’m not going to make the same mistake Celtics and Bucks fans did
Honestly I think the Celtics would be better for the Nuggets than the Heat. Heat are mentally strong and have a very good coach, Celtics are all over the place when things go wrong. But I guess that’s why they didn’t make the finals.
Am I crazy or denver is better than Cs..
How did espn give them 97 for Cs and only 70 for Denver vs heat
89% feels high but I would say it’s probably around a 75% chance Denver wins
Miami is legit but I think this is a really bad matchup for Miami
Makes sense. Nuggets have the best player, have gone undefeated at home so far and have homecourt and are coming off 10 days of rest while Miami’s series stretched to 7 games. Heat play well as underdogs but I think they might be too gassed to run with the Nuggets by the end.
Denver looks unbeatable to me this year
I don’t like being the favorites.
Never count out the Zombie Heat. We have too much evidence over the course of these playoffs to think this will be an easy series for Denver. This is gonna be a slog and Miami could absolutely win. Anyone who thinks the Nuggets will walk over them in 4 or 5 is foolish.
We definitely had a better chance at beating the Celtics than Denver, this team terrifies me as they won’t let go of the rope like Boston, and are a matchup nightmare. To do it, we’ve gotta shoot like we did in the Bucks or Celtics series, while also having Bam/Jimmy kill the Nuggets in the paint, and possibly force Jokic into foul trouble a few games.
I’m not paying any attention to this statistical stuff after seeing a 3% chance for the heat to win
Aight so Miami is definitely winning, then. Got it.
Denver is a better team, with more rest and are healthier. Plus, they have home court advantage in the mountains.
I love the heat, but I just don’t see it.
Seriously, will Miami avoid a sweep?
I see a 4-1 Denver win with Miami taking game 3
if Denver doesn’t sweep i will be amazed.
jokic is going to absolutely murder Bam. Murder.