>”Of all the preseason expectations I’ve seen, this is the one that absolutely floors me the most. The prognosticators have the Raptors finishing more than five games worse than last season and landing nearly 10 below .500. Apparently, most people think the Raptors are going to suck this year, which I presume is the result of the reductive math equation: “Average team minus [Fred VanVleet](https://archive.ph/o/B32Pv/https://theathletic.com/nba/player/fred-vanvleet-DJq74red8aTFXbfg/) equals suck.” > >To me this is a triumph of The Narrative over common sense. This roster still strikes me as playoff-caliber, especially in the NotGreatBob assemblage that is teams No. 3 through No. 15 in the Eastern Conference.” > >Yes, going from VanVleet to [Dennis Schröder](https://archive.ph/o/B32Pv/https://theathletic.com/nba/player/dennis-schroder-Prd7BnWIcVC7T4mJ/) is a downgrade (FIBA competitions aside), but that’s not the only change. Remember, relative to last season’s Raptors, the biggest positional difference isn’t at point guard, it’s that they get a full season with a real center. > >Toronto only played 26 games with [Jakob Poeltl](https://archive.ph/o/B32Pv/https://theathletic.com/nba/player/jakob-poeltl-wzkpB8YKmxhyMN2h/) after acquiring him at the trade deadline; the Raptors went 15-10 with him as a starter and had a plus-3.2 average scoring margin in those games. Yes, the usual disclaimers about March basketball apply, but that’s a decent proof of concept for the “Raptors with somebody bigger than 6-foot-9” approach. > >Meanwhile, check out the rest of the team. The Raptors have a looooong way to go before they become a 35-win team; they had everything go wrong last year and still went 41-41 with a plus-1.5 scoring margin. [Pascal Siakam](https://archive.ph/o/B32Pv/https://theathletic.com/nba/player/pascal-siakam-O4WMbrh2Eb51D9jq/) is an All-Star, [O.G. Anunoby](https://archive.ph/o/B32Pv/https://theathletic.com/nba/player/og-anunoby-QdEOH7cdW2HOrPHU/) is an all-world defender who should look even better now that he doesn’t have to masquerade as a part-time center, [Scottie Barnes](https://archive.ph/o/B32Pv/https://theathletic.com/nba/player/scottie-barnes-q6oHKUdJcW7PgLaq/) could be poised for a breakout and the most important players are all in their 20s.
Eclectic_Canadian
Still don’t see how anyone thinks this is a 35 win team. I get the ceiling isn’t great and there’s discussions to be had about the long term direction, but we have a team of very good players that just didn’t play well together last year.
People seem to forget this team won 48 games 2 years ago. Since then we’ve lost Fred and gained Poeltl, Schroder, Otto, Dick and McDaniels.
kpeds45
I agree with this analysis. We were a better than 41 win team by point differential last year even before the Poeltl trade I believe. I can’t see us being worse this year with a full year of Yak. One thing I would like is a trade if Boucher for a PG on the bench. Boucher+Flynn for…player X.
After-Contribution27
As well even though offense gets most of the discussion these days, I think a big part of swapping coaches is to finally get this roster of really strong defensive players to stop underachieving relative to their talent. Top 10 minimum to top 5 defenses rarely do that poorly in the NBA regular season.
Ylissian
35 wins is definitely too low. This defense is poised to be top 10, maybe even top 5 level. I feel most elite defenses end up above .500
carryyoulikeakoala
I see no lies.
This is not a 35 win team as built. Unless we go through heavy injuries or trades. I just don’t see being a bottom dweller.
8 Comments
If you don’t have a subscription, [this link may help.](https://archive.ph/2023.10.03-100643/https://theathletic.com/4922246/2023/10/03/nba-win-total-over-under-projections-raptors-grizzlies-nets/)
>”For this exercise, I’ve used [consensus Vegas over/unders](https://archive.ph/o/B32Pv/https://www.thelines.com/odds/nba/win-totals/), including BetMGM, most recently updated Sept. 27.”
​
>”Of all the preseason expectations I’ve seen, this is the one that absolutely floors me the most. The prognosticators have the Raptors finishing more than five games worse than last season and landing nearly 10 below .500. Apparently, most people think the Raptors are going to suck this year, which I presume is the result of the reductive math equation: “Average team minus [Fred VanVleet](https://archive.ph/o/B32Pv/https://theathletic.com/nba/player/fred-vanvleet-DJq74red8aTFXbfg/) equals suck.”
>
>To me this is a triumph of The Narrative over common sense. This roster still strikes me as playoff-caliber, especially in the NotGreatBob assemblage that is teams No. 3 through No. 15 in the Eastern Conference.”
>
>Yes, going from VanVleet to [Dennis Schröder](https://archive.ph/o/B32Pv/https://theathletic.com/nba/player/dennis-schroder-Prd7BnWIcVC7T4mJ/) is a downgrade (FIBA competitions aside), but that’s not the only change. Remember, relative to last season’s Raptors, the biggest positional difference isn’t at point guard, it’s that they get a full season with a real center.
>
>Toronto only played 26 games with [Jakob Poeltl](https://archive.ph/o/B32Pv/https://theathletic.com/nba/player/jakob-poeltl-wzkpB8YKmxhyMN2h/) after acquiring him at the trade deadline; the Raptors went 15-10 with him as a starter and had a plus-3.2 average scoring margin in those games. Yes, the usual disclaimers about March basketball apply, but that’s a decent proof of concept for the “Raptors with somebody bigger than 6-foot-9” approach.
>
>Meanwhile, check out the rest of the team. The Raptors have a looooong way to go before they become a 35-win team; they had everything go wrong last year and still went 41-41 with a plus-1.5 scoring margin. [Pascal Siakam](https://archive.ph/o/B32Pv/https://theathletic.com/nba/player/pascal-siakam-O4WMbrh2Eb51D9jq/) is an All-Star, [O.G. Anunoby](https://archive.ph/o/B32Pv/https://theathletic.com/nba/player/og-anunoby-QdEOH7cdW2HOrPHU/) is an all-world defender who should look even better now that he doesn’t have to masquerade as a part-time center, [Scottie Barnes](https://archive.ph/o/B32Pv/https://theathletic.com/nba/player/scottie-barnes-q6oHKUdJcW7PgLaq/) could be poised for a breakout and the most important players are all in their 20s.
Still don’t see how anyone thinks this is a 35 win team. I get the ceiling isn’t great and there’s discussions to be had about the long term direction, but we have a team of very good players that just didn’t play well together last year.
People seem to forget this team won 48 games 2 years ago. Since then we’ve lost Fred and gained Poeltl, Schroder, Otto, Dick and McDaniels.
I agree with this analysis. We were a better than 41 win team by point differential last year even before the Poeltl trade I believe. I can’t see us being worse this year with a full year of Yak. One thing I would like is a trade if Boucher for a PG on the bench. Boucher+Flynn for…player X.
As well even though offense gets most of the discussion these days, I think a big part of swapping coaches is to finally get this roster of really strong defensive players to stop underachieving relative to their talent. Top 10 minimum to top 5 defenses rarely do that poorly in the NBA regular season.
35 wins is definitely too low. This defense is poised to be top 10, maybe even top 5 level. I feel most elite defenses end up above .500
I see no lies.
This is not a 35 win team as built. Unless we go through heavy injuries or trades. I just don’t see being a bottom dweller.
🔥🔥🔥🔥