They’re more than twice as good as the next best team. Most of that is because of the FVF and Pascal picks but still, wow. Unlike most models, my data isn’t based on advanced analytics like PER or LEBRON. It’s based on NBA awards (all-star, all-NBA, all-rookie, etc) so I take into account more context. I’ve tracked every single draft pick since 2016, here are the results, [full results and methodology can be found here](https://medium.com/@JourneytoaGM/courting-success-ranking-nba-teams-by-drafting-prowess-97d44b0f0dcb). LMK what you think!:
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|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
||Ranking|Team|Total score|First round| |
||1|Raptors|145.34|121.15|282.41|
||2|Spurs|66.23|68.06|55.86|
||3|Heat|60.37|53.77|97.76|
||4|Lakers|51.07|36.13|135.76|
||5|Nets|37.74|41.35|17.26|
||6|76ers|33.56|27.98|65.17|
||7|Rockets|32.92|27.23|65.17|
||8|Jazz|32.46|35.88|13.03|
||9|Grizzles|31.82|32.61|27.34|
||10|Thunder|27.38|27.10|28.96|
||11|Bucks|25.27|6.73|130.34|
||12|Blazers|25.14|23.83|32.59|
||13|Mavericks|24.56|13.96|84.61|
||14|Nuggets|23.03|15.60|65.17|
||15|Cavs|21.49|13.78|65.17|
||16|Timberwolves|18.58|10.35|65.17|
||17|Pelicans|18.23|17.90|20.09|
||18|Clippers|17.88|17.75|18.62|
||19|Hornets|17.75|13.88|39.72|
||20|Bulls|17.17|8.70|65.17|
||21|Hawks|14.88|17.51|0.00|
||22|Celtics|14.14|16.64|0.00|
||23|Kings|14.02|16.49|0.00|
||24|Warriors|13.88|16.33|0.00|
||25|Knicks|13.50|10.14|32.59|
||26|Suns|12.81|11.23|21.72|
||27|Magic|12.42|14.61|0.00|
||28|Pistons|9.79|8.23|18.62|
||29|Pacers|9.54|10.01|6.90|
||30|Wizards|6.21|7.30|0.00|
^(Table) ^(formatting) ^(brought) ^(to) ^(you) ^(by) [^(ExcelToReddit)](https://xl2reddit.github.io/)
by Designer_Ad4086
6 Comments
I mean yeah the 2010s was a magical time for the raptors. Despite Lebron paternity questions.
Not surprising, you started during our golden era of drafting:
2016: Jak, Pascal
2017:OG
Post 2019 they only hit on Scottie:
2019: Dewan Hernandez
2020: Malachi Flynn
2020: Jalen Harris
2021: Scottie Barnes
2021: Dalano Banton
2021 David Johnson
2022: Christian Koloko
2023: Gradey Dick
The front office has been objectively poor post 2019… start your model at 2019 and the results will be much different.
I give them a lot of credit for avoiding Suggs but there were a lot of great players in the top end of that draft.
FVV wasn’t drafted though, so that shouldn’t really count. Giving a ton of points for an undrafted player, while not factoring in all the undrafted ones that failed lends a positive bias to it.
You can’t only count the wins.
It also makes it really messy, do you credit the win to the original team who signed them, or the team that the player blew up on? Same with failure, what if the player results in a couple of 10 days from different teams, do both get black marks, or just the team that tried them out first etc.
And some are just outright missing, for example, Oshae Brissett, we signed him to a 10 day and he was undrafted, amounted to nothing, but ended up playing solidly for the Pacers, neither team gets credit.
IMO it’s best to leave out undrafted players entirely, if you are trying to assess drafting prowess.
Also if you are seeing the Raptors being more than 2x better than 2nd place, especially if that 2nd place are the Spurs, you’ve probably got some bias in the model.
It’s hard to take the results seriously when you make player exceptions yourself as you pointed out with MPJ. Or having Yuta valued more than OG, if I’m reading the total values of 130 vs 64 correctly.
The points system as a whole seems REALLY heavily skewed towards late picks/undrafted players, disproportionately so.
EDIT: Found another inconsistency, Chimezie Metu is on a third contract that is fully guaranteed, but because his second one with the Kings was less than 50% guaranteed, it doesn’t count? There’s just way too much inconsistency with this model.
2010s carrying the Raptors. Since 2020 save for Scottie they haven’t hit on any pick. Koloko is the only one that looks like he could be good but with his issues with health he could be another useless player.
This is a great way of evaluating drafting. The expected value gain of getting a Siakam or Barnes far outweighs the EV loss of a miss like Flynn (compared to the EV of the 29th pick)The idea that missing on dewan somehow evens out hitting on the Barnes pick (like a win loss record) is not the way to judge drafting. Unless the standard is just to never draft a bust (impossible) the best is to maximize your wins and minimize your bad picks.
Raps front office hasn’t had a big hit recently but their “failures” are no where close to the amount of value gained in previous ones. An example of bad drafters would be fumbling high picks for example (bargnani, Bennett, etc)
Scarborough Raprots
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(much love to Scarb)