I posted my [analysis](https://www.reddit.com/r/chicagobulls/comments/16v89s9/reasons_to_be_optimistic_and_pessimistic_about/) before the season started, arguing that the Bulls team is better than it showed last season and that, it could make the playoffs this season.
We are now slightly more than halfway through the season so it’s time to review how that prediction is going and how the Bulls have fared so far this season.
**How Have the Bulls Fared So Far?**
At the end of the [First Quarter Review](https://www.reddit.com/r/chicagobulls/comments/18m7fq0/first_quarter_bulls_season_review/), the Bulls were 11-17, 12th in the East. They had the 18th best Offense and 22nd best Defense.
Since then, while the Bulls continued to fight to stay afloat and have continued to win, on balance. They are now 21-24, good enough for 9th in the East, with the offense falling off a bit to 21st and the defense improving significantly to 15th.
The team continued to win in Zach’s absence, led by DeMar and Coby, going 5-2 after Zach’s return, though Zach is now out again another week or two.
**What Has Changed this Season?**
The Bulls finished 5th in defensive efficiency last season. Some predicted a drop-off, though the plunge to lower third in defensive efficiency did come as a bit of a shock. The Bulls have started to right that ship, though it remains to be seen whether the Bulls are able to be an elite defensive team again.
Offense is up modestly from 24th to 21st this season. The Bulls are shooting more 3s this season. They are now 22nd in attempts up from dead last the previous season. Another notable change is in offensive rebounding, where the Bulls are getting a whopping 32.9% more offensive boards relative to the previous season.
The Bulls aren’t a particularly creative team on offense, ranking 28th in Assists, but they do take care of the ball, leading to the 3rd fewest turnovers.
Donovan has made some adjustments this season trying to jumpstart the offense, though so far, with the team a mediocre 21-24 it’s hard to say that the changes have really borne fruit. Nevertheless, the potential for a solid season is still there.
**Comments on Individual Performances**
It’s been a breakout season for Coby White, as he is now averaging 18.8ppg on 46%/40%/82% shooting efficiency and is a potential candidate for most improved player. He’s more of a score first PG rather than a distributor, but that’s basically how most elite PGs operate in the modern NBA. He’s still only 23 years old. His breakout has somewhat turned the narrative around for the Bulls as a team with allegedly no future.
Looking at DeRozan and Vooch, it seems that these players might be experiencing a bit of age-related decline. DeRozan’s PER has dropped to 18.2 which is the lowest in 8 seasons, while Vooch’s PER of 17.1, which is the lowest outside of his rookie year. DeMar has pretty much given up on rebounding and he still doesn’t shoot a lot of threes, and Vooch’s 52% True Shooting leaves much to be desired. Still, both these players remain productive.
DeMar, who gets a lot of flak for his play, still leads the team in both PPG and APG, often playing de-facto point guard, and he’s making a reasonable $28.6 million to be the team’s best scorer and passer,
Zach has been the issue. His scoring efficiency took a hit at the start of the season, then he was injured. Since coming back, Zach has focused on a more all-round game, with 15.6 ppg 5.8rpg and 5.6apg on solid 49%/39% shooting splits in 7 games since his return. Those aren’t max-contract numbers, but they’re pretty good. The results were positive on balance as the Bulls won 5 of those games, though there wasn’t any decisive win over a solid opponent.
Caruso has become a fan favorite and some advanced statistical analyses point to him being the Bulls best player, even if his basic counting stats aren’t particularly impressive.
Patrick Williams isn’t having the same kind of breakout season as Coby is having and, statistically, he’s simply largely the same player as he has been throughout his career. He rates as a solid reserve or, at best, a mediocre starter, and you arguably want more than that with a 4th pick in the draft. Still, he’s not a bust in the sense of being in danger of being dropped from the league. He’s a year younger than Coby so there’s still time for him to take the “next step”.
Off the bench, Ayo is a solid if somewhat streaky reserve. With his quickness, I could see him being a 15ppg + scorer in an up-tempo offense (the Buls are dead last in pace).
Drummond is a force of nature. When it comes to rebounding, he’s the equivalent of a 38 ppg scorer. Literally, he has the [highest career rebounding percentage](https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/highest-rebound-percentage-in-nba-career) of any player. In NBA history. By a significant margin. Some have, quite understandably, argued he should get more minutes. But, he’s not without warts. He has limited range. He leads all active Bulls players in both turnovers and fouls per minute. His 55.4% FT% is basically Shaq (47.8% for his career). And his 60.6% FG from 0-3 feet is among the lowest on the team and atrocious for an inside player of his size and agility. So I can kind of get why Donovan doesn’t use him as much as some might want. Still, he’s a special player and it’s great to have him. Donovan went with a twin towers rotation of playing Vooch and Drummond at the same timer for stretches in the recent Cleveland game, which seemed to work–until it didn’t. As I said in my pre-season review, the Bulls have one of the best center rotations in the league.
The newly signed players, Craig and Carter, have been mostly alright, and the Bulls will hopefully get Craig back in the coming few weeks, which will help because Dalen Terry still doesn’t seem quite ready for regular rotation minutes.
**What to Expect in the Future**
After an atrocious start, the Bulls have been trying hard to dig their way out of the early season hole towards an 0.500 record. They have taken command of the 9th place in the East. One of the legit criticisms of my pre-season analysis was that, outside of Ball, most of the key Bulls players were relatively healthy in Chicago’s previous 40-42 effort. I think it’s fair to say that the Bulls have been seriously tested with injuries this season and going 21-24 despite them as actually not that bad.
The next few months should be intriguing, as the team which is ahead of them in the standings, and which would now have the homecourt in the play in, is the Orlando Magic, the Bulls trading partner in the controversial Vooch trade–rated as one of the [worst trades](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10086038-the-5-worst-nba-trades-of-the-last-5-years) of the last 5 years. Orlando has faded somewhat after a hot start and I’m willing to bet that the Bulls can ultimately overtake them and make the playoffs.
A big question that currently hangs over the Bulls is whether they might trade Zach or even blow up the team. Many fans want this. But with Zach seeming to be doing his best to fit in with what the Bulls are doing, and the Bulls going 16-10 since their ugly 5-14 start, I still think the best way forward is to keep muddling through with what the Bulls have (unless some great trade opportunity appears which, according to reports, isn’t likely).
The Bulls are within striking distance of a low seed playoff berth. While there is no Victor Wenbanyama-level young superstar, there are several promising young players along with serviceable veterans. Though there is a perception that AK has mortgaged the future with recent moves, the Bulls’s future prospects aren’t completely dire. The Bulls were ranked [16th](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10086466-ranking-every-nba-team-by-future-draft-assets) in a recent survey which ranked teams by future draft assets. Not great, but hardly catastrophic. It seems at least somewhat plausible that PWill and Dosunmu may still take another step forward in their development next year, or even later this year, and that Coby might not be entirely done with improving. While it’s possible Lonzo Ball might be done as a serious NBA player, there is maybe at least some chance that he returns at some point next season. If he can start to give some quality minutes even as a reserve, that would be better than having his contract burning an empty hole in Chicago’s payroll. So the future, while somewhat cloudy, isn’t as terrible as some suggest.
There has been some pretty hysterical reporting about the Bulls and their prospects, like Charles Barkley calling them an “[embarrassment to the NBA](https://www.basketballnetwork.net/latest-news/an-embarrassment-to-the-nba-charles-barkley-slams-the-chicago-bulls)” and another analyst claiming that it’s “[unreal](https://www.bleachernation.com/bulls/2024/01/18/how-few-moves-chicag-bulls-two-years/)” how few moves the Bulls have made, but mostly, I think the Bulls are going in the right direction overall, even though they are trying to muddle through a somewhat challenging period.
​
by InternAmazing
5 Comments
Good review thanks for putting this together. I’m just tired of this team being so middle of the road.
Thank you for insightful post, OP. Really want a stepup from patrick and less hero ball from demar. Ayo needs to find his footing like Coby did this year.
>Another notable change is in offensive rebounding, where the Bulls are getting a whopping 32.9% more offensive boards relative to the previous season.
The eye test says this uptick in offensive rebounding coincides with their better play starting in December.
They were middle of the road at 10.4 per game ranking around 18th in the league in November and looking abysmal with a lot of loose balls going to opponents in that stretch. Bulls recovered 45% of loose balls in November, bottom 1/3rd of the league and shot up to 54% in December which was top ten that month.
[December saw them shoot up to 12.8 per game which was good for 5th in the league.](https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/offensive-rebounding?Month=3&dir=D&sort=OREB) They are down again in January so far at 9.9 and I’m not quire sure what’s changed this month.
>Looking at DeRozan and Vooch, it seems that these players might be experiencing a bit of age-related decline. DeRozan’s PER has dropped to 18.2
DeRozan looks flat on a lot of his midrange jumpers and is leaving them short. I was actually hoping he had some nagging injury or that working on the 3 ball was preventing him from getting his normal lift on the middy but it’s starting to become apparent his legs are *just* starting to go.
>There has been some pretty hysterical reporting about the Bulls and their prospects, like Charles Barkley calling them an “embarrassment to the NBA” and another analyst claiming that it’s “unreal” how few moves the Bulls have made, but mostly, I think the Bulls are going in the right direction overall, even though they are trying to muddle through a somewhat challenging period.
From an ownership perspective those people do have a point. We *should* be a premiere franchise in the league like the Lakers or Celtics but the best thing we’ve had going for us for the better part of this *century* is that we are “not the Knicks” and that copium is running out of effectiveness.
We clearly should not continue forward with all three of Demar, Zach, and Vuc and expect different results. Is it worth re-tooling around one or two of them is one question that needs to be answered.
The obvious choice there on paper is Zach Lavine, locked in to a long term deal and young enough to be a foundational piece but his play as of late is very uninspiring. Demar is getting too long in the tooth to be the focal point of a championship contender, if he ever could have in his prime, and Vuc is nice but not transcending any barriers for this squad.
So that leads to the other question we need to ask, is it worth building around a core of Coby White, Pat Williams, and company or should it be a full tear down to the foundation and starting anew?
I like Coby and have been a big Pat defender, but I don’t know if I’ve seen enough out of both of them to say they are worth the risk of missing out on a top pick while actively trying to bottom out.
We need a franchise caliber talent on this roster, I’m skeptical we will lure one in free agency, and I haven’t seen a star player demand a trade to Chicago since Kobe, so the draft feels like our best bet.
Since Dec 1st the Bulls have the 10th best record in the entire NBA.
Do with the information what you will
Can you explain a little more with what you mean by the Bulls having one of the best center rotations in the league? I didn’t see the pre season post you referenced so I’m just looking to learn more about that