6 things that will decide the Cavaliers’ 2023-24 season, part one | Cleveland Cavaliers podcast

6 things that will decide the Cavaliers’ 2023-24 season, part one | Cleveland Cavaliers podcast

On today’s lock on Cavs who is the team’s biggest competition for the two seed in the East and other key questions for the Post Allstar break run that’s all coming up today unlocked on CFS are locked on Cavs your daily Cleveland Cavaliers podcast I’m Chris Manning that is Evan damal

Thanks again to Jake Stevens as always for his work on production Evan before we get into our main show today which is going to be the first of a two-parter we’re going to look at six big questions six things that are going to decide the rest of the Cavs regular season

Allstar Weekend came and went very quiet on the Cavs front All Quiet on the Cavs front what was your Cavs Allstar Weekend highlight oh golly um I think there’s one answer to be clear I think there’s Donan Mitchell wearing the money Marill Jersey for me I think that that’s that’s

Or maybe no no that’s it that’s it small consolation uh I’m going to be talking with Jackson Flickinger uh he went there during Allstar uh he could have got credentials from Fear the Sword as well but I know I know he had him from right down uid but

Um he did tell me that like you know Donovan Mitchell wasn’t about his future which you know it’s kind of nice there’s a change of pace for once when Donovan Mitchell’s you know set let loose in front of the national media I think it’s just the money Marill

Thing because number one that Jersey was like that was cool the whole team was making a big deal about the fact that he that should have been that saml like would have been a good representative secondly that Cavs Jersey that throw that it’s the city Edition

One from the the year that Garland made the and Allen made the allstar team the all 22 season obviously they the season kind of ends in the slam cover when the Cs hosted allar yes which I have uh our friend Jimmy Longo took I have that

Framed in my living room umed on above my desk yeah there it is shout out go shout out to um that Jersey is the best Jersey the Cavs have had in some time and it should just like be in their rotation that is just a I I think I firmly believe that

Jersey just is good and a lot of the Cavs jerseys are not good and that one actually is so to see it and to see Donovan Mitchell wearing it despite the fact that he never wore it because he wasn’t on the team was cool I digress

Yeah it was cool I’m not trying to be like a hater or like disagree with you on that but let me take let me push back real quick would you want them to wear it in the exact same color scheme or would you want them to add modern

Adaptations where it’s the darker Wine and More of the vasy gold instead of like the traditional like mustardy yellow that they had in that uniform I don’t I I’m cool with the mustardy yellow but I just think that jerse is better than like that structure of that

Jersey is just better than anything it has texture it has like it has an actual design and it isn’t just a lot of the crap Nike makes now so I I was just curious because I saw somebody do a mockup of the blue Lebron the first

LeBron blue jerseys of that era and they swapped out the Navy for black they darkened the wine they added the Vegas gold trim which I think was already on there but either way like I’m like it’s not too bad um I am curious though uh speaking of uniforms it is rumored um

And I’ve kind of been hearing whispers the Cavs are going to be a throwback team next year and with how deep and diverse Cleveland’s um Jersey history is I wonder how far they wind back the clock or if they are bold enough to wear those first LeBron era Jersey

For certain nights yeah we we will see if that comes to fruition but main topic of today’s show first question in segment one who is the Cav’s biggest competition for the two seed Evan I think there are two ways to answer this mhm I think you can answer this in terms

Of who’s actually going to give them the biggest push and then who would be the team that if they are the three seed would be the biggest threat to the Cavs as the two seed mhm if you look at the just for what it’s worth the playoff probability report that basketball

Reference does has has the Cavs as a sizable favorite um they get the two seed in 87.8% of their simulations they do 10,000 simulations and update it daily the Knicks have the next best chance to get in the two seed at 4.9% the Bucks a 4.3% chance of getting

The two seed Nick with a 32.4% chance of getting the three seed and the bucks at 31.2% of getting the three seed so Evan this was your question when we each pitched three who’s your biggest threat so it is interesting I’m pulling up the strength of schedule as we talk just to

Give you an idea of who these teams play but they’re not I mean obviously um Boston isn’t within Striking Distance of Cleveland so is uh Milwaukee as well I think Philadelphia depending on whether or not Joel embiid plays again this season uh could be in the mix too

Even the Knicks like it is the Cavs have built like a two and a half game gap over Milwaukee a 4 game lead over New York four and a half over Philadelphia so they have a bit of a cushion they are six back from Boston and so for me like

Looking at uh remaining strength of schedule like Milwaukee has the third hardest schedule left in the NBA like they have to play the Celtics twice the Timberwolves the Thunder twice the Clippers twice the Suns and the Knicks both once whereas you have a team like New York who is just ahead of Cleveland

They still have to play the Celtics twice Thunder once the Cavs and the dicks both have to play again um they play uh the buck and the Pelicans too like they they have some tough competition but to me I would say just on paper the biggest threat is

Probably New York just because I don’t know well this doc Rivers’s experiment is going to go for Milwaukee I think they are getting shredded defensively still and they think they’re seven and four and seven or something like that his first 11 games of the coach I don’t

Know they have a losing record with him at the helm so far so maybe the Bucks take a pi of a bit of a step back and ends up being um like let’s just say in the second round Boston versus Milwaukee if you got Cavs Nicks in the second

Round like with a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals of the line something Conference Finals which is something Donovan Mitchell’s never experienced that would give me I mean that’d be exciting for me as somebody who just loves the game but like if you’re a cast faner in this team like

That gives you pause just because like New York is a very good team even if they are very banged up right now like like once they get healthy and maybe start chelling again like they could be a threat to push Cleveland for the two seed and also maybe a team Cleveland

Wants to avoid come playoff time especially in the second round I think it’s the Knicks I I think Milwaukee you have to respect on both both ways you could answer this just in the sense that they have Giannis and they have Dame MH and star power

Sometimes in the NBA just does win out seeing Giannis in a playoff series if that’s what it came to for Cleveland would be a real test and that would be good for them to go through in some way I I think in one way shoer or the other

That’s kind of the outcome that would be I mean in some ways more fun for us to to cover I think but the Knicks just have the recipe of things that I think can just press on the Cavs buttons they have all the big wings they have the rebounding

Stuff and there would be like the mental component of okay how do you overcome what happened last year how do you overcome what went wrong for you last year how you lost last year in pretty embarrassing fashion there there’s a lot that would go into that and I think in

Terms of I think the Cavs are just going to get the two SE there’s nothing in what they are that makes me think a fall off is coming that’s going to really open the door for someone else but in terms of who’s going to who could push

Them and kind of maybe make them uncomfortable in playoff series I would in it’s wild to say that I would if I’m Cleveland rather see a team with Giannis and Dame than than a team with not Giannis and Dame but the Knicks just have all the components of things that I

Think can really press on some of the Cavs weaknesses on top of some of the stuff from last year yeah and also I think for for Cleveland’s sake um sure Doc Rivers coaching the team and playing nothing but veterans instead of what Adrien Griffin was doing with a mix of

Young guys and the veterans um is different but that the Cavs a tentative formula for success to beat Milwaukee and that was without Evan Moy or Darius Garland on the floor like Theo and plan is you throw Isaac aoro at Dame you make Dame frustrated uncomfortable as often

As you can like I I forget the numbers but they’re not great what Damen lard shooting numbers were were when Isaac aoro was his primary Defender so there’s a recipe for Success there um obviously Boston you want to avoid as much as possible because they have the two JS I

Think porzingis does produce interesting matchups for Jared alen and Dean Moy to handle and also like Drew holiday as a grinder and when the game slows down I think he’s a lot more effective but I agree with your take on New York like you still have ogan noi like he is

Banged up right now with an elbow injury but he will be back sooner rather than later um I think there’s obviously just the external pressure of this is the team that ended our season last year can we excise the demons and get past it then you have Devon chenzo who is a

Grinder you have Josh Hart um hartenstein I think is very good uh but I like their acquisition of Burks and bogdanovich like the the Nicks had a pretty good like trade deadline just to kind of maximize what they have and also Jaylen brunson’s really really good and

So I don’t know if you’re Cleveland you want to try to hope and pray you avoid New York but if it does end up being Nick’s Cavs in the second round you’re if you’re Cleveland you hope at least you have the two seeds so you open the series at home

Versus having to go to the Garden where the Cavs experienced that last year like they they were rattled by how rockus that crowd was and you kind of want to kind of build momentum at home before you head to New York and I think that

Would be a little bit more of a recipe for success but I don’t know it would be um really fun basketball for me to see like both the off the court and on court narratives that come with it of like seeing these two teams Collide in the

Second round instead of having a first round series like last year all right up next Darius Garland what’s going on with him is he the best version of himself the answer is no we’ll explain why that matters and and where Garland can get better after this today’s episode is brought to you by

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G r m m r l y.com podcast easier said done right with gramly all right so Darius Garland I think Evan would it be fair to say he has been the most underwhelming Cavalier this year that he has been the one who is I think more than a mo considering Mo’s late surge

More than just about anyone he has been the most underwhelming lackluster guy on the team this year is that a is that a fair statement I think that is a completely Fair statement um he had big games to start the season I think he had bigger moments when he was 100% not

Maybe dealing with the rust and the physical fatigue that comes with returning from injury but it just hasn’t really clicked Garland like we had hoped um it’s something we had touched on before he had the jaw surgery or the injury against Boston um you were starting to see like

Glimpses of Garland and Mitchell meshing together again on the floor something that was surprisingly a little bit lost for the Cavs to start the season after they found it so quickly last year and since he’s come back from injury just it’s still kind of been a clunky fit I

Think the Cavs have found ways to make a little bit more advantageous within this new offensive flow with him mostly playing off the ball start games with the ball in Mitchell’s hand sure like you let him run the offense sometimes too but and then empowering him to run

As like the lead guard next to Carris Levert the bench units to start the second quarter like there there are small building blocks the Cavs are putting in place but it it’s kind of been all smoke and not a lot of fire right now maybe a couple flashes in the

Pan rather two but yeah I think that’s a fair assessment for sure like Evan Moy disappointing to start the year but like everything’s starting to click and he’s just been so exciting to watch whereas for Garland you’re like okay any second now like hopefully you do something

Other than putting up like 17 and two on very poor shooting numbers to be sympathetic and empathetic to him I will say if you wanted to craft away for a guy to have a really uneven season this is kind of how you would do it he plays the first game misses the

Next four misses one about a month later about 3 two weeks later after that and then the the injury in Boston happens and he misses all that time he loses all that weight he is basic like he’s able to ramp up a little bit when he comes back but this

This run up before the All-Star break in some ways was just like him getting his sea legs back under was getting back into Rhythm so you’re kind of like just waiting for him to actually get a chance to actually build into a season in a way that he really didn’t before this the

Numbers I I think tell you that it hasn’t been the most effective year um he is at a career low from three his volume’s is down from the last two seasons and More in line with his rookie year and his second year that has changed a little bit and EV to me if

We’re spinning this forward that’s why I think this starts to get better for him is we have seen in recent weeks and before the allar break his shot profile coming back from injury looked different he was taking more threes he was taking nearly half of his shots from three on a

Lot of nights um in in the last three games before the break five of 11 shots were from three and they win at Toronto in the loss against Philly eight of his 16 shots were from three and then in the win against the Bulls five of his 10

Shots were from three now is he making every shot at the clip you would like no but I do think you’re starting to see the the gears turn towards where you kind of want him to be and if I’m being optimistic about him that would the way

He played not in terms of full execution but the way it looked and the way that what the kind of the the shop profile look like to me indicates it maybe something better is coming for him but that’s that’s obviously I think an optimistic read of it I mean it’s

Perfectly fine to be optimistic about it I think there is a moment where we he will start to find his footing again like you said his sea legs is a great way to put it um and just slowly start to put everything back together on the

Floor and kind of show you the player he was before this injury like for context I think people don’t realize like difficult it is for Garland during this recovery process but as soon as he his jaw repaired um his jaw was wired shut and then he had to monitor his

Heart rate he couldn’t get too Physically Active which means he can’t lift weights he can’t really run and do a lot of aerobic exercises to stay in shape um can’t really put up a lot of shots to kind of keep his rhythm and just kind of keep maybe the host he had

Going before the injury um so you’re more or less hitting pause on everything for six weeks and you’re starting I wouldn’t say it’s square one but you’re you’re starting closer to the start of the Season shaking off the rust the weight that he lost which was 12 lb and

Then he’s slowly acclimating adding weight back on as he shared with me um but like it’s going to be a process and like you said I think it’s encouraging that we’re seeing signs that he’s starting to build a little bit of that momentum heading to the all-star break

And you always to say like you can only go up from where Darius Garland is at right now which isn’t a terrible terrible place it’s just been kind of one note and at times which is disappointing in the grand scheme of it all but when it comes to like room for

Improvement like Garland will be fine because historically speaking like he maybe takes a little bit to bounce back from an injury but he more often than not does uh this one is just you know the most unprecedented because he told me other than the eye like this is

The worst injury he’s ever suffer just because like your entire world changes and you realize like I can’t eat food for the next six weeks and I have to eat everything Blended in a smoothie which sounds horrible especially when you’re in Paris during the

Head I think the I think the way to to answer this question more than anything else and and kind of ask just very ask it very bluntly is do you believe in what Darius Garland is like if you’re going to be an optimist and say okay this is going to

Get better that the second half of the Year this run up to the playoffs is going to be the best stretch of his year it’s do you believe in him as a player as as a talent for me the answer is yes and I think the Cavs like need him

Segment three is going to be who is the second most important player behind Donovan Mitchell for the this team I think there’s a there’s a case for Garland and I think it’s just you need the ball handling you need what he is it speaks to the talent and and what this

Team has been that they’ve accomplished so much without him at his best but I would say like the way this continues on I think involves a ver the the version of Garland we’ve seen and I I think that he’s capable of and I would like I’m just a believer in what he is

And I just kind of maybe this is just like going to end up being a weird l lost year for him but I just think too highly of him for that to necessarily be just like a fully lost year for him and him taking such a big step back it feels

Like yeah I think it’s big loss is a good way to put it like a loss year for him rather and I think it’s just frustrating because it’s kind of been indicative of this entire Cav season where like one guy comes back a guy or two goes out

It’s constantly been that the start of the season with gar being the guy who is really struggling with it because the also like the Cavs are playing a dramatically different way than they were uh com like when he was still out there compared to when he came

Back and so it’s going to be an adjustment but I agree with you like your take on that he will be fine we’ll see for this season at least the best basketball of of this little window of his career right now uh post All-Star break and leading into the playoffs and

Ideally when the minute restriction itself is is lifted by uh JB bicker staff and the medical staff um and we’ll kind of see where it goes from there but yeah it’s just frustrating because these are precious opportunities you don’t get really any chances to practice during

The regular season as much and it’s kind of you’re teaching him how to play on the Fly and that can a little frustrating at times which is you know empathetic wise you understand but also like yeah I think he’ll be fine too all right after this who is the

Second most important player in the cab is it Donovan Mitchell is it Evan Moy is it Jared Allen is is it Sam Merill is Evan gonna get weird and say sam Marl we’ll ask Evan we’ll open up with his thoughts on this after this today’s episode is brought to you

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Yeah you confused me heading into the segment CU I had noted in the text like it’s clear Mitchell’s the number one player like yeah but he said it could it be Donovan Mitchell so for full disclosure I texted I just I just blacked out I blacked out yeah you’re

Just In the Heat of the Moment I get it so um Donovan Mitchell is buying far Cleveland’s best player he’s in the MVP conversation at least locally and within the locker room um he is Cleveland’s best player un IED night out um and now it’s like fair to question like okay who

Is going to be the robin to his Batman or maybe like an injustice league sense or more of a best friend sense it’s uh the Superman to his Batman or something like that but um or Spider-Man and if we want to go with Donovan being spider we

Could do Tony Stark in the MCU or something that pre snap uh and game snap but um it’s a fair question and to me I think it’s Evan Moy just because Jared Allen does have a ceiling to his game I think Darius Garland we touched on this

Quite a bit in the last segment has like been a little up and down since he’s come back from injury like he has the potential to take the Reigns as the number two but like Evan M’s two-way impact the fact that he’s like so aggressive offensively whether it’s scoring wise shooting three-pointers um

Passing and moving the ball being the primary ball handler and like engaging in Fast Break uh scenarios for Cleveland like he has started to put a lot of it together for me in my eyes makes me say like yeah he he could be the dude that uh becomes the number two next to

Donovan Mitchell and could help decide or swing a playoff series in their favor I’m torn on on this question because it’s a tricky one just because like they have four talented players at the top and like no discredit to Jared Allen but Jared Allen is Fourth of those

Four players in the top four you could just make an argument I think well you could even I think make an argument for Allen just from like a dependability standpoint and in availability like there’s just like I don’t that’s not the argument I would make but I think or I’m going to

Go I think it comes down to Garland and Moy mhm the case for garland would be secondary ball handler will relieve pressure I’m going to go Garland I’m going to I’m just going to make the case for Garland and I think that’s where I would lean just

Because Mo the team where the team is going to I think run if I’m Pro projecting where the issues come and what the challenges are Mo the defense is already really good and like has been great without Moy even being at his best or even available mhm Mo’s offense is certainly

Going to unlock a lot that I think makes the case for him and maybe that’s just the reason to pick him but Garland is going to be the one that if they if the Cavs do two on the ball if Mitchell gets jammed up if they just need a pressure

Release valve on offense and makes the offense like function in a way that it didn’t in the playoffs last year and keeps everything moving and gets the ball to the shooters and and maybe has some scoring UPS Garland’s kind of got to be the guy I

Think that that’s where I like if Moy is the the right two-way answer and certainly his shooting if this is real and we’re going to talk about him in the second part of this this series uh tomorrow show if the leap has happened me he’s probably the answer but I I think

There’s a real case for Garin that’s and it’s no disrespect to to Jared Allen who’s going to be really important but I think it has to be Garin moyy and Evan maybe it’s because they’re both they’re some unknown with both of them is that I

Think that to me is part of this is that there’s there’s a range of outcomes for this year for both guys and I think that makes them harder to project whereas Jared Allen were just like we know what you are and yeah again no discredit to Jared Allen he really stepped up and

Showcased like how good he is when like the the Cavs call on his number need to lean on him more especially when Evan Moy was out but I think that’s a pretty accurate assessment on just like there’s a lot of unknown like with Moy we’re suddenly seeing like this really

Aggressive offensive attack and approach from him um we’re seeing him just like you know maybe not be a guy who is I don’t want to say chasing his stats but like he is putting up much more he’s putting up higher numbers on a higher volume and much more like with the ball

In his hands versus just kind of being a guy who’s relying on the guard setting him up um but with Garland like we kind of know like what he can be when he’s hitting at his Apex like replicated his career best numbers when he was an All-Star for the first time next to

Donovan Mitchell in their first season together and there’s just been some bumps and bruises and just bangs up along the road that like kind of make you think like oh okay what do we got here now so like it’s what we don’t know versus what we do know and we’re not

Seeing the full picture in front of us and I think it’ll clear up more um once these guys are off minute restriction I know Kobe Alman said during his midseason media availability the hope is that they will both be off of them when they return from the All-Star break or

Hopefully soon after the All-Star break is over but we’ll obviously see what the next steps are and how JB Baker staff and the medical staff tackle this but um it is an interesting just kind of question to like think about and mole over like okay what who will be the

Number two because that’ll be really tricky for the Cavs come playoff time because Mitchell did have that mown last season like he did against the Mavericks the year before that when he was still at the Jazz and there are going to be moments where defenses lock in on

Donovan Mitchell and try to make life really hard for them and the Cavs need another player to step up and during the regular season it was Jared Allen but like you said we know what Jared Allen’s game is we know where the limit and now you have to say like okay is it

Going to be Darius Garland or have Mo it’s going to step up and that that creates the uncertainty for me he’s like who’s it going to be like are they are they going to become a little bit more one-dimensional come playoff time when the pressure is on or are they going to

Have the guys that they hope step up finally do step up I mean it could be matchup dependent first round if you’re getting Indiana maybe it’s Garland and maybe it’s just like hey you need him to to work some things out or if it’s the Knicks in round two I think that’s maybe

More of a Moy thing than it is a Garland thing even if there’s some risk of Moy getting attacked on defense and all that stuff so there’s a lot of different ways this could go you just hope they both stay healthy and get tomorrow here yeah and just Garland looking right would be

A big deal is where Moy looks I think quite good already uh tomorrow’s show here’s the things we are going to get into to give you a tease the next three topics is part of these six is it the Evan Mo leap happening George Nang or Dean Wade as

The eighth guy for the playoff rotation and Isaac aoro is his play enough is his play good enough right now for him to matter in the playoffs and also get him paid we’ll talk about those things on tomorrow’s lockdown cabs more coming this week we’ll have game

Coverage for you too covering Cavs magic and Cavs on Thursday going into Friday and Cavs 76ers Friday going into Saturday until then I’m Chris that’s EV have a great rest of your day everyone we’ll talk to you tomorrow

On a new episode of Locked on Cavs (Monday, Feb. 19, 2024) hosts Chris Manning (@cwmwrites, The Just Basketball Show, SB Nation’s Fear the Sword, Forbes Sports) and Evan Dammarell (@AmNotEvan, Right Down Euclid) discuss three topics that will define the rest of the Cavaliers’ season: Who is the biggest competition for the No. 2 seed?; What’s going on with Darius Garland?; and who the second-most important player on the team behind Donovan Mitchell?

Come back for part two tomorrow.

This episode was produced by Jake Stephens. The intro music is from our friends at Astral Radio.

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