Scoot Henderson at the All-Star Break: What Is The Ceiling for the Trail Blazers Rookie?

Scoot Henderson at the All-Star Break: What Is The Ceiling for the Trail Blazers Rookie?

In today’s show a deep dive on scoot Henderson what he’s done so far his rookie season what he still needs to do and what is his ceiling welcome to locked on Blazers let’s get into it you are locked on Trailblazers your daily Portland Trailblazers podcast part of

The locked on podcast Network your team every day what up world it’s your past first point guard and Trail Blazers reporter Mike Richmond you are listening to another episode of Locked on Blazers part of the locked on podcast network available wherever you get podcasts and also on YouTube thanks for making the

Show your first listen coming at you each and every weekday Monday through Friday so make it a part of your daily routine make it your first listen tell your friends to do the same it’s locked on Blazers your team every day in today’s episode we’re going to dive deep

On scoot Henderson to me scoot is the swing piece of whether this rebuild is in its nent stages of becoming something or this is this is like Square zero in a 15-step process the Blazers you know have a lot invested in scoot Henderson they drafted him third overall by

Drafting him they kind of by choosing to keep the draft pick they kind of ushered Damen lard out the door although they probably wanted to do that anyways judging by some other moves they did and did not make and you know and like very specifically not only does he overlap

With Jam lard but he overlaps with athrey Simons who’s the best player on the team a little bit like they have some real organizational investment in scoot being the guy it has been a rocky start to scoot’s Career it’s been a little bumpy um he’s been he’s been better lately and what I

Want to dive into now is is I want to I’ll share this caveat here in the first two minutes of the episode because I think some people um will need this and I want to give it to you nothing is definitive at this point in scoots career he’s he’s he’s a young person

Right he’s a teenag major um he’s he’s it is too early to say things he’s actually he’s 20 he turned excuse me he turned 20 on February 3rd but like he’s um he’s three weeks into into his 20th year right like none of this is definitive this is what we know now and

What I think now based on what we have seen so I want to dive into what’s good what’s been bad and what is scoot’s ceiling based on what we know or what his ceiling might be if that has changed at all and and what kind of scoot means

To the organization that’s what we will do in today’s show let’s start with the good though um this is kind of a throwback if you all have been rocking with me for a long time this can’t be many of you cuz most of you thankfully

The show has grown a great deal over the last 3 four years um but if you were have been following my work since I was a beat writer for The Oregonian many moons ago I used to write a uh a weekly stats column or kind of just like

Weekly kind of check-in column called The Good the Bad and the nerdy when I would check in on a good thing that happened a bad thing that happened with the team and kind of share some nerdy stats along the way this is kind of rooted in that um it’s I’m bringing back

It’s not the exact format but it’s rooted in that approach so let’s start with the good then we’ll go to the bad then we’ll we’ll uh we’ll sprinkling some nerdy along the way here’s the here’s a good deal with scoot last 15 games you’ve seen you’ve

Seen the vision over the last 15 games averaging 14 points 2.8 boards 4.3 assists shooting 40 40.9% from the floor 41% from the floor 35% from three and 88% from the free throw line on five attempts a game 4.9 free throw attempts a game shooting at 80 excuse me 87.7 88%

From the free throw line getting to the free throw line making free throws really good making threes you know still below League average but a big big big big jump over what he was early in the season and taking about three half a game um if he’s a below average three-point shooter

But right around there like if he’s a 35% three-point shooter for his career he’s going to be good no D no doubt about it um it’s not the separating skill form we’ll talk about that more in the show but but like if scoot was averaging 14 and four and shooting 35%

From three and 88% from the line for the season I don’t think anyone would be freaking out like maybe they would say hey he hasn’t had like a string of monster games in a row or even like you know two back-to-back games where it’s like that dude is it where he’s

Just like so good clearly the best player on the floor type of thing or clear the Blazers best player on the floor like there there there hasn’t been that right there hasn’t there haven’t been those moments but I think like and and but if he was just putting up these

Numbers as he has over the last 15 games it’s uh little over a month this is since about January 12th if you go go back to scoots last 15 games uh then he’s averaging you know 14 and four on decent shooting not shooting very well from two but like

Decent shooting from decent shooting from three um better shooting from two than he has all year and and getting to the free throw line and making free throws if he was doing that all year there wouldn’t be there would be no nerves I think there’s some nerves

Around scoop because he hasn’t been very good but like if he was just as productive as he’s been over the last little bits um you know the last month five weeks yeah yeah that’s fine like this is this is what rookies look like and he’s and he’ll get better and I

Think that’s the good part um his floor is probably a solid NBA starter like I I I think that’s that’s kind of what he’s established I think there was some concerns maybe he was less than that because he was really struggling to begin the season uh I don’t think people outside

Portland I don’t think a lot of people have watched the Blazers when I hear people com like worry about scoot um I feel pretty earnestly that you should listen to this podcast cuz I watch the team all the time but I think people in this in the mark Market um here and and

And if you’re listening to the program you probably watched at least at least many scoot games um except for the handful of you that are unable to for a variety of reasons but like I think there was some concern that maybe he was he was I don’t think there

Was concern locally that he was like not an NBA player but I think Broadley there was and like I I think over the last little bit it’s like yeah you can see it you don’t don’t need to squint you don’t need to don’t need to panic like you can

Just see that he’s been good it’s not this like it’s not a thing um he’s like a to me he’s a supercharged Ricky Rubio is like his is like his floor right now and then more on that name later put that name in your back pocket for later in the episode um like

The good he can really pass dude can really pass like that is his skill right now is that he can um he see he’s a willing passer and he is a capable passer and when he plays at a speed that isn’t just only turbo button the beginning of the year he only played

1,000 mph and it was to his detriment because he was just trying to Turbo into everyone’s chest and pass him he’ll still he’ll still do it from time to time he’ll try to get someone and you’ll see him do particularly with his left left hand

He’ll hook a Defender as he goes by him he’s like just like I’m I’m going this way I’m stubbornly going this way he’s kind of gotten that change of pace particularly in the half court like understanding the importance of not just driving 1,000 mil hour but driving 17

Mil an hour and then 85 and then 41 and then 75 and then then 100 and then slow back down to two or 3 milph and beat beat someone by decelerating he’s he’s starting to get that skill a lot better and and when he plays with that pace

Like you see his playmaking flash you see wraparound passes to Jabari Walker you see little handoff flip insides to doop wath and and and DeAndre Aton he’s played way better with DeAndre Aon recently as he as they both have become more comfortable with one another scoot Henderson leads all rookies in assists

He leads all rookies in potential assists he leads all rookies in assists adjusted which is a St from nba.com that includes assists secondary assists well that’s when you make the pass one pass away so assists secondary assists and assist that lead to free throws so the Blazers like mind you are the worst

Shooting team in the league scoot’s part of that but the worst shooting team in the league they’re the wor they’re last in league and effective field goal percentage they’re last in the league and true shooting percentage give scoot Shooters and give him RI better Rim rollers DeAndre and stops his Rim roll

All the time in the mid-range is where he’s comfortable but give him someone who truly rolls to the rim and give him Shooters around him like a really good pick andp B big maybe doop reath becomes that or or maybe he just stays solid because that’s what doop is but give him

Shooters on on like actually spreading the floor around him and give him and give him a better Rim roller and like scoot’s going to be a really good passer cuz he’s good at it um you know this is on a team that has a clunky offense with

Not enough like just like well below average complement of Shooters around him um scoots scoot is still just like in terms of volume because he’s playing 25 minutes a night and and he makes decisions with the good decisions with the ball in his hands for the most part

Sometimes he makes bad ones but I think he was early in the Years making terrible ones but recently he’s made much much better ones all leads all rookies in in in um in in assists and uh he’s and like I said in in potential assist which is like you know a pass to

Someone who misses a shotter or you know could have been if they had made it gone in like he’s he’s dude can dude has the chops to be a great playmaker that’s the good undeniably good bet much much much better his last 15 games like it’s so obvious if you

Watch him much much much better and he has the skills that if he had like a much if he had better co-workers and the Blazers are you know they’re going to try to build and get better players on the team right um if he had better co-workers better catch and shoot guys

And better pick and roll Partners his skills are already buddy and he would be even better if you played with people that complement what you do best then you could be what you are the best version of yourself more often that’s the good that’s good undeniable undeniable 2024 scoot significantly better than

2023 scoot let’s talk about the bad because there there is that and I think it would be um inappropriate to not to not address the elephant in the room um and that elephant keeps missing layups let’s talk about that in the second segment first let me tell you about

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Right so the good with scoot is that I think for a lot of the Season you had to say he’s pretty good considering he’s been good considering I think you can just say over the last little six weeks like he looks like he just looks like a solid

Rookie looks a solid rookie um he’s had some games where he looks just like a solid basketball player but I think like um there are fewer and fewer caveats that’s if you zoom in and here then and that’s what we do on locks on

Blazers we zoom in it’s I I think um one of the strengths of the show is that I is that I help you zoom in and I and I I’ll continue to do that as best I can but if you zoom out on scoot it’s pretty bumpy it’s a lot

Rougher he’s the reverse Monae the farther away you get the worse it looks like if you get up close you can see like yeah he’s been way better if you stay far back it’s like um he’s the reverse the season is the reverse Monae um there’s no way around

It dude has shot bricks according to clean the glass indispensable stats website uh they got shooting splits based on accuracy at all the different spots at The Rim uh mid-range this long mid-range short mid-range all mid-range Corner threes above the break threes uh broken up in all the different spots on the

Floor scoot Henderson is bottom 25% in the league for every single spot on the floor for at the rim for short mid-range jumpers for long mid-range jumpers for Corner threes for top of the key threes every single spot on the floor scoot Henderson is in the bottom 25% of the

League among point guards like broken up by his position group bottom 25% of the league it’s bad it’s bad shooter he’s been he’s been like like I said when when you zoom out it looks worse let’s let let’s just like Zoom all the way out to his 43 game stats where he’s

Averaging 12.9 3 point 3.0 that’s three rebounds 4.7 assists on 37.5% shooting from the field and 31% from three an effective field goal percentage of 42.7% but depending on how you slice it and where you kind of cut the the volume for um for games played and minutes

Played and all that like scoot Henderson is either one of the worst or the worst finisher at The Rim in the league depending kind of depending on how you want to sort the stats he on the season um is shooting 47.9% in the restricted area well below

The league average that’s about that is North of 60 it’s about 61% but that includes like centers right like DeAndre shoots 74% there restrict area cuz he has good touch and he’s 7t tall um so like you know naturally little guys are going to be going to be a little bit

Worse but according to clean the glass scoot is in the uh bottom of bottom bottom bottom tier at the rim for point guards he’s been really bad like I said last last 15 games like you can see it with Scoot and the last 15 games shooting 55% of the rim much closer to

The league average and a significant jump from his season prior to that prior to that last 15 game stretch heading into so this is through January 11th sco was shooting 45.9% 46% of the rim like he was he’s just smoking layups he’s really right-hand dominant around

The rim but even more than that like just the separation to get off a clean look um the the sort of the the deceleration skill to like get use your speed use your burst to actually like get into someone’s chest slow down and get a shot off you can make and not just

Turbo Smash It Up there and hope it goes in because you hit the shoot button like you know he’s excuse me I said The League average 60 60.1 is 59.9 I apologize 59.9 in in in the restricted area um so like even 55 is below the league average but he’s

He’s he’s he’s up there he’s up there um way closer than the 47.9 he is on the season and way closer than the 45.9 he was through games played on January 11 like he is he is like I said when you zoom out out it it it doesn’t look so

Good so let’s let’s zoom out even further for a moment just look at him on the season uh you know guys that are shooting south of 41% on twos uh scoot Henderson is shooting 40.8% on two-pointers on the year uh he is before I get into this let me let me

Explain my reasoning here a lot of people think the swing skill for scoot is shooting threes because that’s going to open up his game I don’t think that really matters if he can’t make layups certainly being able to shoot threes would give him um some a a better

Way to score uh like or another way to score that would be more helpful um but like he’s if he can’t make layups it doesn’t really matter if he develops into being a League average three-point shooter because if he’s a well below average finisher his physical gifts and

His athletic gifts don’t really matter if he smokes layup if he can’t score amongst the trees they’ll just press up on him from three anyways even he becomes a elite three-point shooter and force him into traffic at The Rim he becomes easy to guard for me the swing skill is the

Layups because if he isn’t if he doesn’t become an above average finisher not even Elite but an above average finisher his he’s probably not a he’s probably never gets to that like Star borderline star allar Star level right like he he he just doesn’t get there making layups is going to be

The thing that separates Scoot and that’s why I’m kind of just zeroing in on the two-point makes you know like I said on the year 31% from three recently 35% from three much better off the dribble from three than he is on catch and shoot he’s just a more comfortable

With his ball in his hands that’s like a thing that the blazes are going to have to sort out right like um typically you think that catch and shoot shots are easier his comfort zone is the best just looking at his shooting splits a one dribble like a one dribble uh shot from

From three from scoot is his most accurate when he has when he has a little bit chance to catch pump fake side step whatever it is like um he’s he’s been more accurate there uh but the finishing is the key part and I’m just looking at rookies since the year 2000

The last 23 Seasons 24 seasons um who shot under 41% on twos it is not a flattering group Tao madon Frank nilina Emanuel Moody a Jordan P Malik monk Manuel quickley those guys are pretty good Kirk Hinrich Marcus Smart they made all defensive teams Marcus Smart’s defensive player of

The year but these are not exactly the Paragon of offensive of you know offensive Stars these are this is not the the prime of the Prime guys who shot under 41% 41% under during the rookie season from two you know who else the name on the list is Ricky Rubio rooky

Rubio was a career floor raiser he raised he always raised the floor on teams he played for but he also kind of lowered their ceiling because he had some he had some legitimate limitations and I think that’s the concern for scoot is he supercharged is he supercharged Ricky Rubio because if

He supercharged Ricky Rubio what is what are you getting from him right you’re getting a good player but Blazers need more than that but the name in this list that you need to know this is the name of this list is going to bring you I I’ll finish this

With on the positive side here there’s one guy on this list from the since the year 2000 in the rookie Seasons who have shot under 41% from two like I said zoom out reverse Mona look a little look a little rough look a little bumpy uh Kimbell Walker kemell Walker’s on

This list kemell Walker has very similar stats to scoot Henderson shout out to listener Giannis who sent me an email about this uh back last week about six seven days ago uh who sent me who said that kemell Walker has strikingly similar numbers to scoot Henderson kemell Walker sixth seventh

Eth and Ninth seasons in the NBA he was an All-Star it took him a little while to get there but once he established himself he was very good he finished 11th in the Rookie of the Year voting uh he got some MIP votes his second season

And then in by year six after five years in the league of being solid he became like a legitimate star and helped the Hornets make the playoffs as their best player and all of those things like I’m not saying that like scoots ceiling is kembell Walker I’m saying

That if you are holding on to Hope like let me say two things here as I go a little along in this segment actually let me finish that thought in the second segment in the final segment because I think there’s important takeaways from Walker as the as

The best statistical comp in terms of finishers as rookies let’s talk about that and let’s talk about scoot ceiling to close the show because I think those things are intertwined first let me tell you about eBay Motors passion drive and patience that’s what brings home the winning

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All right still pass first point guard still Mike Richmond still listen to lock down Blazers kemell Walker is maybe the best statistical comparison to scoot in terms of uh finishers guys who struggle to finish as rookies kmo was 21 not 19 when he came into the league but guys who

Really you know smaller guards scoot’s bigger than him certainly way longer arms and probably has potential to be a significantly better Defender but like let’s say really high end he’s the he’s a Marcus Smart kemell Walker mash up but but Kemba Kemba if Kemba is the

Highend right of guys who what what I what I mean to to sort of put those names out there it’s like there aren’t a lot of guys who have turned into who have struggled to score at the level scoot has struggled to score in his rookie season and have turned into like

Legitimately very good offensive players emanel quickly might end up being a pretty darn good offensive player in the league um Malik monk is a good offensive player I I I think like he he’s a bucket um but but you know the the rest of the list is not exactly littered with folks

Who were like oh that dude could score if nothing else he could score like Jordan pool is on the list but U Jordan p in a worst ecosystem is a nightmare this year it’s one of the least efficient players in the league um it’s not good and he was a really inefficient

Rookie too and he was um you know was for a while in a perfect spot and it it didn’t work out for him and I don’t want to paint kemell Walker as the sealing for scoot right but I want to just offer that um offer that sort of idea right is that

If there is hope it’s like not every single player on this list is awful it’s not the end there is like an obvious high level outcome here that that exists it’s just that there aren’t many and Scoot would be an outlier scoot would be an outlier the way Kemba is an outlier

On this list scoot would be an outlier and we’ll see what happens with IQ like if if quickly ends up being an All-Star in Toronto then this is this list has two names that are outliers and and you you hope scoot would would would join them right and I think

Um I think there’s a tendency to say well if you ignore the bad parts of scoots game the good ones have been obvious and and I that’s why I kind of LED with the last 15 games like it’s been obvious that he’s better but the whole of the season

Is it like exists all in the same plane right like it they they you don’t get to Cherry pick um in terms of like these the this list I brought up is not like predictive right it’s not it’s not predictive but it is uh it’s worth noting that guys who have had struggles

On the volume that scoot has and and and I picked guys who were eligible for the minutes per game leaderboard like rookies who played a bunch to be on the on that list thanks to good people at stae head for allowing me to look that up

Um it’s a subscription I pay for I guess I allow myself but thanks for the people at stad for having it um it’s it’s scoot would be an outlier kemell Walker would be an outlier outcome and the Blazers have a lot invested in scoot being more than that I don’t know more

Than K but a four time Allstar it’s a pretty freaking good outcome right but like if he averages like 20 a game for Five Seasons I think ended up pretty good but the the like when you draft someone third overall and you draft someone third overall in the context of

Blazers draft him third overall and you start him from day one is rookie season the Blazers thought he was going to be good I know Joe Cronin at his mid-season press conference said that uh scoot Henderson struggled in a way that was very believable scoot Henderson did

Struggle in a way that was very believable but the Blazers didn’t think that was going to happen no way they start him game one if they thought he was going to struggle like he did no way no way they they thought he was going to

Be much better out of the gates and he wasn’t and chy phips dialed back his role and kind of found a place for him to find his comfort zone and now he’s found his comfort zone and they’re going to start him for the rest of the year and hopefully he continues to play

Better like he has of late nothing about what I have explained in that second segment about scoot struggles are a incorrect it’s all it’s all factual stuff that I looked up prior to recording this episode and none of it is set in stone that makes makes you

Emanuel moodier none of this makes you Emanuel moodier none of this makes makes you you know Ricky Rubio as your stealing or like hopefully you become Kirk Hinrich and make an all defensive team one year and play on like a gritty Bulls team as a backup right like none of that is

Definitive I don’t think scoot ceiling has dramatically changed if you thought scoot was transformational generational point guard you should probably still think that but I thought and I will I I I I will say here is that the expectation for scoot should be to make an All-Star

Team or an all NBA team on his rookie contracts if you look at other players who are drafted to be lead guards in the top five over the last eight seasons that is a reasonable Darius scarland malal it’s like a re a very reasonable Anthony Edwards like these are these are very

Reasonable expectation these are what folks are it’s what you’re drafted to do come come be the guy I don’t think that that should change I think that what changed for me for scoot was that the timeline has been dragged out a little bit further I thought he was going to be ready and

Better sooner do I think he’s an all-nba Talent no I probably don’t right now I probably don’t I I I don’t um because I think there’s too many things that he doesn’t do well like he has some tools to good on defense he’s awful on defense

Right now in a way that young players are often awful on defense um he the shooting is there but he’s still below average the finishing is still a pretty big problem although he’s been much better lately shooting getting to the free throw line GameChanger absolute Game

Changer if he’s someone who gets to the free throw line five times a game as a teenager imagine when he’s more crafty gets a better whistle all of those things that’s a game changer that’s a star level skill like he gets to the free throw line basically

As often as anyone on the entire roster that matters I think there is still pretty obviously a very good player hiding in the hiding in some of the big picture struggles but I think where I have changed my sort of like high-end 95% outcome type of thing is that I don’t

Know if scoot is an all-nba type player but I still think scoot is going to be a darn good one because I think he has skills and physical tools you know super long arms athleticism um although he’s not a great in-game dunker by any means I thought he would be a little bit

Better in-game dunker but like the athleticism the the the this the length for his position particularly just wingspan for his position and the passing ability to be a good a solid basketball player for a long time do I still think he could make an all-nba team absolutely absolutely I think I’ve dialed back

My um optimism that he will but here’s the thing that changes for the Blazers if scoot Henderson is not the guy but merely a guy they are still searching for the guy none of that is set in stone right now none of it is but if this season and

The way he has performed so far has made you think like this probably isn’t the foundational piece to build forward with and he certainly hasn’t been that yet it’s like he still could grow into that but he certainly hasn’t been that yet players improve at finishing Damen Lord

Spent the first two years under um he’s over 50% on the year which would be better than scoot is by fairly significant margin by um but like he’s um he was you know it took him till year three to become like a truly solid finisher if scoot in year three becomes

A well above average League finisher while getting to the free throw line above a bunch and still continuing to be anite Elite passer and a and an improved shooter he’s going to be a really good basketball player that seems like a reasonable trajectory but if he but if

He’s merely a guy right if he’s a guy if he’s a pretty darn good player highlevel starter borderline All-Star then the Blazers search for that foundational Rock like what you need to be really good in the league is a star right you need Stars uh that’s what what what good

Teams are built on you need role players off of those stars but you need stars to get there and if scoot’s ceiling is that he is a dude and not the dude the search continues and it puts a great deal of pressure on Shaden sharp to become the

Dude but I don’t think I think it’s just too early to be definitive I think hopefully um in this episode I gave you some reasons to be hopeful and some sort of honest to goodness facts about why there are some red flags about what scoot has has has been so far this

Season he’s been way better lately if the graph keeps going up by the end of the season when we revisit and we say hey what did scoot look like his rookie year we’ll say for the last 35 games scoot was awesome scoot was awesome and so who

Could be worried and I’ll look back on this episode that I published on February 21st and say boy I didn’t I didn’t know and and and and um over the last six weeks of the Season or or seven weeks of the season it’s like hey scoot was great scoot was really stinking good

And and you’ll be able to point to this and say Here’s the here’s the direction the continues to go but I think it is worth considering um if this beginning first two-thirds of scoots rookie season first ome games of scoots rookie season if this has given you some pause about what his ultimate

Ceiling might be then what the Blazers decisions the Blazers make moving forward should also be in some ways centered around what scoot’s ultimate ceiling might be that is going to do it for today show come back for tomorrow show 5 days a week R get Podcast and also on YouTube I appreciate you

Listening tell your friends about the broadcast I’ll talk to you soon

The good, the bad, and the nerdy from Scoot Henderson’s rookie season.

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