Denver Has Work To Do: Sharpen The Blade

Denver Has Work To Do: Sharpen The Blade

Allstar break is almost over the Nuggets return to practice what do the Nuggets have left to do this season plus how important exactly is it that they’re healthy for the playoff run that plus West scenarios and more on a big picture locked on nuggets you are locked on nuggets your

Daily Denver Nuggets podcast part of the locked joh podcast Network your team every day welcome to locked on nuggets your daily de nuggets podcast part of the locked on network your team every day thanks for joining us and making us part of your day appreciate you guys being

With us here on a Tuesday night I’m with you Matt Moore Senior NBA rer for the Action Network glad to have you with us and for thanks for making us part of your day your live your week appreciate you guys being along for the ride glad

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Chat popping here on a Tuesday night hurricanes with us Freddy’s with us Rob Tommy uh fiveish always with us always first in the bag appreciate you guys being with us here on a Tuesday night on today’s show I’m going to talk about um the work that the nuggets have left to

Do because there is work left to do and I want to get to kind of what that looks like what does the schedule look like what do the Nuggets need to accomplish over these last 27 28 games because I’ve said that most of the hard work is over and that’s

True that’s true but obviously based off of the way that things kind of slid uh there’s still a little bit of work to do plus I did want to kind of get into some of I haven’t really commented since the whole losing streak so I want to kind of

Get into things and maybe reassure people of a little bit because there’s been a little bit of panic in nuggets nation and come on you guys come on like let’s start there like look the losses were bad I’m not going to sit here and tell you that the losses were good they lost

To the kings in a blowout Fashion on back to back they got their teeth kicked in by the Bucks in Milwaukee who the Bucks have not been good uh and then the kings came back and snuck a win out at home against them but I I just just got to get into

This a little bit like there is no reason to panic there is no reason to be talking about and I think it’s fine for fans and analysts to kind of break down like hey what should you have done at the deadline like what you know look at

These games this is why you need to do something at the deadline it’s fair um I think the core kind of component that we still have to kind of get to is we got to recognize that the Nuggets when they are whole are still one of the absolute

Best teams in the NBA they’ve been the best team in the NBA since the start of the playoffs last year like that is just the case that they have been the best team in the NBA since start of last year and you’re going to have these stretches

Where things are not great like you’re just gonna have stretches where they are not uh looking as good and that was a big reason why I was so down them in preseason I was like oh this is gonna be way way harder um than it has been in

The past like this is just going to be harder than last year however I tweeted this the other day I wanted to bring it back up um the are 24 and8 that’s a 62 win Pace when all their starters play that includes 14 and two at home they’re

A 62 winpac team when all of their guys play so all of these losses are directly tied to them missing guys now if you follow me on Twitter or you listen to me long term you know that I’m a guy that’s like look you’re going to have injuries

That no one gets through the the season unscathed it’s why when the Lakers are like but but were ruy haimura and Gabe Vincent and Jared Vanderbilt I’m like I don’t really care Memphis is Miss John marant Stephen Adams and Brandon Clark and Desmond Bane and Marcus Smart like

Those guys have been out almost the entire year um everyone’s hurt Miami’s missed Jimmy Butler for dozens of games everyone’s banged up and so you have to kind of realize that if you’re gonna make it through the regular season you have to build a squad that’s going to be

Able to sustain those injuries and still get you through now at the same time Denver’s still where they are in the West in the fourth spot they are still within Striking Distance of the one seat that’s still very much on the table for them um they still have one of

The best squads and when they do play together they are still an absolute Beast I did kind of want to look at all right the starters when The Starters play together what does that look like last year the nuggets with the starters in the regular season had a plus 13.1 net

Rating so for every 100 possessions that they played versus opponents the Nuggets outscored those teams by 13.1 points in those 100 possessions this year it’s 13.0 so it is literally just a Dey bit worse that’s it the T the tiniest shred of of worse is what they could be they can’t be any

More wor like this is the least worse they can be at this at this range um and that’s that’s just really apparent in the way that this is structured now in the second segment we’ll talk about the importance of being whole and what that means because we

Know like hey the nuggets are awesome if they’re healthy how are they going to approach these final stretch of games I think that’s going to matter but I do think that uh then team you know Tomy kind of mentioned this team checked out before All-Star break It’s a Grind

Absolutely true um there there’s no question of it at all I think that one of the things that I try and focus on is like uh when the Celtics got trounced by the Bucks in Milwaukee when they lost by 40 or whatever you know Bucks fans wanted to

Take something from that and everyone’s like well you know it’s a bad schedule spot and Bucks fans were like no like because they want the win right but one of the things I think you have to consider is if there is a game in which the Denver Nuggets get blown out by 20

Plus points that game is not indicative of what the Denver Nuggets are capable of that’s not to say the Nuggets can’t lose that’s not to say nuggets can’t lose four times in a series that’s not to say that they’re going to win the championship and no one’s going to

Question them I’ve said this before consistently it’s not going to be a 16 and4 kind of playoff run there’s gonna be drama there’s gonna be drama in these playoffs with these Denver Nuggets but like them losing the lead at home to the Kings is not indicative of who they are

Them getting blown out by Milwaukee and Milwaukee is not indicative of who they are and if there are games where it’s not indicative of who they are you can treat those as either throwa away games or small moment of time issues now if they stretch on long enough sure that

Becomes who you are but three games is not indicative when we have two full seasons of this team absolutely whipping ass at every single level um we have enough to be able to kind of put that in perspective so it is important to kind of notice that but the Nuggets still are

Gonna have work to do they got to be better and it’s not that they got to be better because they haven’t been good they got to be better because the West is that much better and there’s some numbers that kind of back this up um this

Season the nuggets are 18 and 15 versus teams that are 500 or better this is via espn.com uh to put that in perspective at 18 and 15 the Clippers are 19 and 14 so they’re five games above 500 compared to the Nuggets three the Thunder are 21

And 12 nine games over 500 versus teams over 500 and the wolves are 20 23 and 11 12 games over 500 versus teams that are 500 or better now the nuggets have taken care of business when they’ve faced off against the kind of teams that I say

Build you a good record those teams I talk about where division games home games uh teams that are under 500 Denver in those spots has been tremendous this season they’re 36 and 19 in those games that’s a 66% winning percentage to put that in perspective to last year if you’re like

Well how’ they do last year it’s actually better than last year they were 64.6% last year um at 53 and 29 this season they’re 36 and 19 they’re on Pace to be better in those areas than they were but what’s interesting is the Clippers the Thunder and the wolves have

All been better against those teams too so division games home games teams under 500 the three other teams in the Western Conference have been better teams over 500 the three other teams in the west have been better Denver doesn’t stack up with those three teams in either of those two key win

Categories because they haven’t been whole and we’ll talk about on the other side why it matters so much that they’re whole and how they’re going to have to accomplish that given where the schedule is out the rest of the way we’ll talk about that up next on locked on

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Steals and blocks when he returns because his stock numbers are always really good you get on AG well I think is going to have a really strong end of the season go to prize.com lockon NBA and use code lockon NBA for a first deposit match up to $100 that’s

Prize.com lockon NBA with promo code locked on NBA for a first deposit match up to $100 pick more pick less it’s that easy prize picks is daily Fantasy Made Easy we’ll be right back un locked on nuggets welcome back to the lockon Nuggets thanks for joining us here on a Tuesday

Appreciate you guys being with us uh Swip and I are going to hit you on Wednesday with a show we’re going to break down uh the layers from practice nuggets will go back to practice again on Wednesday uh which you know hard to blame them I think they kind of need it

Uh and then uh Adam will be back on Friday we’ll do world’s finest that night uh Swip will be with you solo on Thursday okay so I’ve talked about how the nuggets are awesome when they have all their guys but they’re going to have to get there so what does the schedule

Look like well the schedule actually is really favorable uh the Nuggets we talked about this way back in July if you remember that the Nuggets were going to have a really tough opening schedule in terms of the the condens the uh condensed nature of the season and

Malone certainly talked a lot about that they had a tough middle part of the season because they played a lot of really good teams we talked about that on the show about all the squads that they were going to face here’s what it looks like the rest of the way

Though 27 games remain remaining for these Denver Nuggets with a strength of schedule of 0452 based off of preseason numbers if we look at ton.com updated uh ones for this season Denver has going forward the 23d rank strength of schedule so that’s one two three four five six seven eighth easiest schedule

Now OKC is ahead of them they have a an even even easier one by one slot um but they’re both actually at0 485 remaining strength of schedule Denver’s got 15 home games to 12 away games they are even in uh rest advantage and rest disadvantage how about this one they

Have three back-to-backs total left that’s it to for comparison the Clippers and wolves have seven a piece Denver has four fewer back-to-backs the rest of the way so they’re in a good spot to go ahead and get some rest if that’s what they want to prioritize what’s

Interesting here is they have to find a way to to kind of shoot this Gap here and I said before the break talking to Adam hey the majority of the work is done and that I do think is true because if we look at the Western Conference and

We kind of like look at and try and look forward about what this is looking like look Denver is now three games back of the Wolves for the one two games back of the Thunder and Clippers they can catch those three’s tough but they do have some match ups versus The Wolves which

Will help them and eff to catch up they’re three ahead of the Suns and pelicans and uh three ahe and four ahead of the Mavericks they’re not any danger in my opinion of falling that far back um it’s harder to catch the Wolves than it is uh

For the other teams to catch Denver because the Wolves went at such a higher Mark right um if you look at the schedule the nuggas return to play on Thursday at home versus the Wizards they’ve got back toback right off the gate versus the Blazers that’s actually

Not bad you you have been off for 10 day for you know what seven days you’ve been off seven days except for Joker who’s done a lot of stuff um and you play back toback okay and then you got three and four when you play Golden State on

Sunday in Golden State that’s gonna be a tough game the woles The Warriors are playing way better they’ve gotten themselves together that’s a tough matchup but Denver’s been shown their ability to kind of get up for that game then they play the Kings and heat both

At home and a home and home back to back next week on Wednesday and Thursday that to me is like pretty pretty significant here um they have one two three four five they have five games in the span of a week they have a five and seven right

Out of the All-Star break and that’s not great but again you’re rested coming out of the break and then they don’t have another backtack until the end of the season the last week of the season that’s pretty favorable their March is extremely spread out they’ve got Gams versus the Lakers the Suns the

Celtics um the Jazz which is going to be tough because the Jazz are a tough team at home they play Miami on the road uh Dallas on the road Minnesota on the road but they’ve also got like Portland and they’ve got Memphis and they’ve got um

The Spurs twice which is a pretty good spot they play the Hawks at home and they’ve got the Jazz twice again they’re they’re those are tough games but in general there’s a pretty good spot here for them to be able to do it but the key

Here is whatever they got to do to get kyp healthy they kind of need to do because he’s been the one that’s kind of bounced in and out of the lineup Jamal had the issue early on but Casey P’s had various Nicks and cuts and bruises that

Have kept bouncing in and out of the lineup and they need kcp kcp has the best onc court offc court net rating for the Denver Nugget the season in terms of when he is on court they are the best not the best on off but that’s not to say that he’s like

More important than Joker it’s not what I’m saying because I’m not insane um but my point here is more that if you look at kcp you can’t really take the idea that he’s not important Joker’s plus 8.7 kcp is plus 9.7 on court now most most of those minutes are with Joker again

Joker deserves all the credit Joker’s the MVP etc etc etc but you do need kcp healthy you need these guys 100% so they’re going to have to find a way to get through the schedule to win the games that are left and they’re going to

Have to find a way to do that while also managing Health they’ve got to be able to get everybody in a good spot you also need to be able to burst enough at the end where those last two weeks so the last two weeks are interesting they’ve

Got Memphis at home that’s a throwaway game that’s the last game of the season nobody cares going backwards Spurs on the road they’ve got backtack Utah Minnesota they’ll probably need one of those two they may need the Utah game they may need the Minnesota game they probably won’t need both and so they

Probably might want to rest up like Let Go it this way if the Wolves slide to two and Denver’s battling with them and for the two seed and they’re going to be tied and tiebreaker comes down that last game rest everybody versus Utah playing versus Minnesota these are the kind of

Things that Denver has not done this season or historically in in the yic era that they’re going to have to start doing they’re going to have to start making tough choices on when to when to really buckle down and which games to go for and it makes it that much more

Important if you do that to go for those games and that includes if you go the other direction you’re like let’s take the easy ones because you can do that too you can go down the route of like Hey we’re gonna rest guys you know um on the road versus

Dallas but we’re going to make sure that everybody plays at home when we Face Toronto right like these are the type of decisions that I think you have to kind of figure out and get through um they’ve got to be able to to manage a lot of

Different things the rest of the season they’ve got to get I think they need a top three seed I don’t think they need a a top two but I think they gotta be at least three I don’t think what you want is I don’t think the the four not only is

There historical data that shows top three is really important but the four seed the problem very specifically is you get the a really tough match up in the five whoever is playing playing best out of Phoenix Pelicans Kings Lakers Warriors Mavericks all those teams will wind up in five so you’re facing the

Hottest team in the four five and then you’re G to have to go to whoever winds up with the best record now OKC would not be terrible like a 4 five versus OKC not terrible you might even argue that a four five 4-1 matchup versus the Oklahoma City in the second round is

Better than a wolves second round matchup in the two3 Maybe maybe maybe you’re going to have to go through one of those teams probably anyway um so I do think though that Denver needs to be able to secure a top three seed because there’s also the chance that maybe the

One of the top seeds gets knocked off and then you’re in a position to where you’re going to have home court if you don’t have homec court in the first round or in the second round you might have it in the Conference Finals should the Nuggets get there and they should be

Expected to reach the Conference Finals that has to be an expectation at this point they’re the defending champions said I can’t say that they have the most championship Equity of any team in the league and then say that the bar is not the Conference Finals they got to make the Conference Finals

Otherwise The Season’s a failure um and most people would say if they don’t repeat as Champions it’s a failure so all this is to say they have to figure out a lot of stuff over the stretch with where the schedule is at and how to manage it you have to

Accomplish so many things you have to secure a top three seed you got to make sure kcp Jamal and AG are rested You’ got them I guess Joker if he ever decides to feel tired at any point in his life uh you’ve got to not go not not be forced in a

Position where you need to play down the stretch you need to be able to ease your way out because you can use that last week to really be like hey we’re going to play in the Utah game we’re gonna skip the Wolves game we’re gonna play the Spurs game we’re gonna rest the

Grizzlies game and then you’ll have played like once in a span of 10 15 days that’s pretty good like that will get you in a really good spot going in the first round of the playoffs um I don’t think that the one seed is something they should pursue I think the top three

Seed is something they should pursue now if you get there you might be able to get the one seed but that’s got to be the way that they approach this don’t bear down to get the one seed Bear Down in order to get a top three seed because that’s what I think

Deor is going to need in order to repeat let’s talk about some more Playoff scenarios on the other side plus I want to get into kind of my thoughts from all-star weekend um I’ll talk about the Nico yic Luca donic stuff em Hill and some other things here on the way

Out on a Tuesday here on locked on nuggets right now I want to tell you about better help this episode is brought to you by betterhelp sometimes we all need the opportunity to get something off our chest big or small certain things can really start to get

To you it’s important to let that out especially to someone who’s unbiased on your life so today I want to say how I really feel about something you might even be thinking about the same thing the last couple of weeks um I’ve covered Michael Malone the duration of his

Career okay um I’ve covered him I’ve been covering the league as long as he’s been a head coach when he was with the Kings and I’ve covered him his entire time with the different nuggets okay it is really frustrating to me after the nuggets have some of these

Losses where Justin holiday who’s played really well this season and that formula has worked for them the entire of the way to have everyone back to why didn’t they play the young guys this is such a disaster guys I if the starters aren’t playing well you’re not going to win and

I focusing in on Justin holiday and Michael Malone not playing whoever it’s okay to say that pton Watson is a revelation it’s okay to say that pton Watson projects like he has star potential because he does and then he’s a Difference Maker and he’s in the playoff rotation and and all these

Things that could all be true and we can also not go crazy and act like Peyton Watson is like this vital component to the Denver Nuggets like he’s not Christian Brown’s quite honestly not Christian played really great for them last year they don’t need those guys they need the starting five and then

Everything else is about filling in minutes and getting through that’s it that’s it Justin holiday and I don’t know I’ve said this so often veterans are going to have good months and bad months Justin holiday had some really good months on and people were saying he

Should play more he’s had a bad couple of weeks that’s okay that’s something that happens and we just don’t have to get so wrapped up in those things and that’s how we can often feel is we just get too wrapped up on stuff which is why

Therapy can help you so much therapy can be different for everyone most of us have bigger problems than trying to figure out rotations for the Nuggets it’s important to get things off your chest every once in a while if you’re thinking of starting therapy give better help a try it’s entirely online designed

To be flexible and suited to your schedule visit betterhelp.com lockon MBA to get 10% off your first month that’s betterhelp hp.com lockon NBA we’ll be right back on locked on nuggets final segment here on lock on nuggets appreciate you guys being with us fire power says y’all need therapy

Not wrong uh we all need therapy I I think everybody needs therapy uh all right so want talk about some of these West scenarios I will tell you that my prediction is as follows this is how I think the West finishes and like this isn’t n um blind guessing it’s based off

Of strength of schedule where I have these teams power rated um what the advanced numbers look like Etc I think it’s going to go one Thunder two wolves three nuggets four Clippers I think the Clippers are probably going to slide a little bit they’ve been so hot it’s really hard to

Sustain that uh we saw kawhai having an a ductor issue now he played in the All-Star Game might be fine but I do think it’s going to be that I think we’re going to get get a wolves in the two nuggets in the three the question is going to be like that

Six seed’s really fascinating because Dallas would be a tough matchup the Pelicans would be interesting I don’t know how tough they’d be in a playoff series but it might wind up being the Suns that would be a tough one in the 36 and then there’s also like

Look if you get the one or two there’s a very good chance you’re going to face Golden State or the Lakers both of whom are going to have momentum uh I will tell you that for whatever reason and most of it’s that their performance versus bad teams but when I look at at

The numbers that I use uh to develop a power rating the Lakers look really good I don’t know that I worry about them in a series given what we saw last year no Jared Vanderbilt probably um I just don’t think D’Angelo Russell can survive in a series versus the Nuggets they’ll

Feel confident because they’ll will rely on all that like moral Victory stuff they’ll be like look how close we were last year and look if they were really close to winning each of those games last year and the nuggets are a little bit worse they probably win a few of

Those games I don’t think they win four Golden State I’m also similarly kind of skeptical about but if golden state gets there they’re going to have so much confidence they’re gonna be a beast to deal with I honestly don’t know what the favorable matchups for the nuggets in

The lower seatings are um I know the wolves are going to be tough but I’ve have confidence Denver can beat them I think the Thunder are really interesting given that they did take the season series versus Denver and and it’s not necessarily the results that lead me to

That because I don’t buy much into regular season outcome results it’s more of the way that they play the same reason I have concerns about the thunder or the same reasons I have concerns about the Mavericks both of those teams have Dynamic Superstar engine players

That like to run pick and roll get you on islands and then attack you they are very good at forcing you into switches now Denver will blit Shay and that’s what they’ll do I think it’s easier to Bullet Shay than it is Luke at this

Point because Luc has seen it a lot he’s gotten really good at it and kyy takes a lot of that pressure off as does Derrik livel and Daniel gaffard the Mavericks would be a pretty tough match up from that perspective because the amount of pick and roll that they run and the way

That they run pick and pick and roll and how good Luca is at it also the Nuggets switch everything except one five Luca is gonna put mpj on an island and that’s gonna be yet another tough match up for him and we’ve went for months saying like can’t do that anymore

Look at how good mpj has been and he was so good to start the season mpj hasn’t been as good defensively lately will he lock in the question so I do think that if I’m putting the concern routes in my concern is probably like the worst case

Scenario I would look at for the Nuggets is a thunder one nuggets four Mavericks five because even if you get through that stretch which he would be favored in each of those series series you’d be favored versus the Thunder even in a 14 you’re likely getting there and

You’re either facing a wolves team that has beaten the Golden State Warriors or Los Angeles Lakers or you’re probably facing one of those other teams maybe you’re facing the Clippers and I know nuggets fans are really confident there that team’s really good and I think they match up better with

Denver Than People realize but a lot of this I think is like pretty interesting with how this these playoffs are shaping up um I said this earlier you need to expect drama there’s G to be some dramatic moments with the nuggets the rest of the way I don’t think it’s going

To be as quiet and as unassuming and as and not we said not dominant we’re probably do for a little bit of drama in Denver we’ll see what that looks like and hope you know knock on all the wood it’s just like oh wow they’re down in a

Series and not something really bad can’t help those things they happen but I do think that we’re probably du for some more drama in Denver um at I said in preseason and on the dmvr pre uh predictions that they were going to go down 3-1 to a Ser in a series and come

Back and win so maybe I’m doing confirmation bias here but um I think it’s gonna be really fascinating to see how the Western Conference shapes up so I went to Indianapolis uh was around for all of the fun stuff with uh Luca donic and and niola I was there at the end of

Nico’s press conference I didn’t uh sit in on Nico’s presser and the reason is um there several years in a row whenever I’ve gone to it he’s been like looked at me with this expression of like I I see you all the time though why why uh doesn’t do that to

Katie because Katie’s Katie so miss most of that um no Cole is in a good mood he’s gotten really comfortable with allar which is really cool to see because he was so uncomfortable when he first started doing it like you could just tell like all of the craziness and

All the intensity really kind of confused him and he’s gotten to a place where I think he really appreciates um how to navigate the weekend what to do on the weekend how to live that kind of Superstar lifestyle and he seems just really comfortable and

At ease I’m not of the opinion that Luka donic and and nicoa yic will ever play together I’m just personally not I think there’s too many factors that go into making that happen and it doesn’t seem likely there’s a lot of things that have to happen there uh both with the

Mavericks and with the nuggets and with with uh Luca and with joic but I get that’s fun to kind of think about um Indianapolis was better than I think that it was given credit for um I understand that for Superstar millionaire black athletes that it’s not

The best place to go I get that if you were a fan and you want to go hang out it was great it was great like the best thing I’ve kind of learned about allar weekend is all the stuff that doesn’t make it on TV there’s so much cool stuff

That celebrates basketball that’s what the weekend should be about it’s about celebrating basketball and the NBA actually does that very well their crossover events their art events their exhibits the partners come in and do like Nike has these big installations and Jordan brand big installations there’s all this cool stuff that goes on

Inside the city of all-star weekend that doesn’t make it on TV it’s just that the you know events are are horrible I am glad Luca was the one to take the the grief this year for his performance in the All-Star Game and Joker just like puts in the work and does that doesn’t

Look bad doesn’t look great just kind of does his job um so that to me I think is uh overall pretty positive experience for the Nuggets but I will say I um watching Tyrese halberton kind of be the face of the weekend and he was at so much stuff he

Did such a great job of taking on a lot of responsibility and being at all these events as like a face and speaking and talking and playing and you know won the skills contest and probably wins the Three-Point Contest if they don’t have the dumbest rules imaginable yes I had

Money on him um all these things are are true it did kind kind of make me think about like man if this game ever got to Denver how cool would it be for Jamal to have this opportunity for this to be like his City to be that kind of a face

For him because like Joker obviously is not going to want to do all that kind of stuff but I think Jamal would really Embrace that opportunity and I thought a lot about when I was seeing like the media availabilities with some of the other Allstars like B bio and these

Types of guys um and Bam’s a better player than AG but I was kind of thinking about how cool it’d be for Aaron Gordon to be able to experience that to soak in this kind of craziness and it’s a zoo it’s a definite zoo of a weekend um there’s all this like oh

They’ve got so many media responsibilities not true they have partner responsibilities they have corporate stuff they have to go to with NBA Partners that’s what takes up their time um but I did kind of think about like how cool that would be and I don’t think ever’s going to get a All-Star

Game by the time that the this core breaks up before this core breaks up but I do think it’ll be really cool and it was just one of those things I kind of thought about how much I think Aaron and Jamal in particular would probably appreciate that kind of an opportunity just

Something that kind of thought passed through my head all right that’s gonna do it for lock on nuggets appreciate you guys being with us here on a Tuesday we’ll be back tomorrow we’ll talk about practice we’ll talk about practice and we’ll get through all sorts of stuff um

Related to the Nuggets we’ll get you set for Thursday’s game versus the Washington Wizards and whether or not the Nuggets can turn this thing around and um you know play like a serious basketball team again out of the break we’ll talk about that tomorrow with swia make sure to rate review And subscribe

Appreciate you guys doing that on Apple podcast give us a like and a subscribe on the YouTube page youtube.com lockon nuggets appreciate everyone being with you we’ll see you guys again tomorrow thanks for joining us on locked on nuggets

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