Minnesota Timberwolves sign Justin Jackson + which contender tier the Wolves belong in

Minnesota Timberwolves sign Justin Jackson + which contender tier the Wolves belong in

Hello and welcome into another episode of lock on wolves today in the show let’s talk about the Justin Jackson signing that was reported the Wolves signing Justin Jackson to a 10-day contract let’s also talk about ESPN’s quote unquote Contender tiers doing air quotes here pretty heavily on the

YouTube uh stream if you’re watching on there uh I have some thoughts about ESPN’s Contender tiers we’ll also talk about the uh Wolf’s turnover rate the issues that it has on their offense could it come back to bite them in the playoffs let’s talk about that on the

Show here today as well welcome in you are locked on wolves you are locked on Timberwolves your daily Minnesota Timberwolves podcast part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day hello and welcome to the lockdown wolves podcast part of the lockdown podast podcast Network your team every

Day my name is Ben Beacon I’m the host of locked on wolves today’s episode is brought to you by LinkedIn jobs LinkedIn jobs helps you find the qualified candidates you want to talk to faster post your job for free at linkedin.com loock on NBA that’s linkedin.com

Lockon NBA to post your job for free terms and conditions apply happy Thursday everybody we’re only a game a day away from the Timberwolves first post All-Star break game it’s been a week since we’ve seen the Wolves play one more day we’re almost there Friday we will preview the Wolves bucks match

Up of course the big ESPN in Minnesota day we’ll talk about that later um but lots to get to today starting with the Wolves signing of Justin Jackson we’ll start there here in just a moment a big thank you off the top for making lockdown wolves your first list in every

Day of course this show is free and available everywhere including YouTube as well as all of your favorite audio platforms wherever you like to listen to podcast you can find lockon wolves you can also watch on the lockon Sports Minnesota app on both Roku and Amazon

Fire TV and you can follow on X at locken wolves and also at B Beacon with two BS two e’s cken all right so the timber will sign Justin Jackson on Wednesday if you’re wondering why I’ll give you the quick kind of uh I don’t know 30 seconds

Behind that um so the the timber roles after the Monte Morris trade because both Troy Brown Jr and Shake witon were traded out the Wolves actually had an open roster spot from the start of the season they of course have three two-way guys uh in Jaylen Clark Luca Garza and

Desan nicks but they had one actual roster spot available right so they came into the year with 14 of the 15 roster spots filled they traded two for one so they got down to 13 you can only have uh 13 players on your roster and not get up to 14 for two weeks

Consecutively during the season and I think there’s a limit of three or four weeks total over the course of the season but not not more than 14 days days consecutively exactly two weeks after the Monte Morris trade the Timberwolves signed Justin Jackson to a 10-way deal or excuse me 10 day deal

10-way deal that wouldn’t make any sense unless he was unlik nine different g-league teams um they signed Justin Jacks into the 10-day deal more about him in a second of course there was the Marcus Morris senior report uh really two weeks ago when Patrick Beverly who of course was ex-teammates with Marcus

Morris said that Morris was heavily leaning toward or was like to sign with or something like that with the Timberwolves um well Marcus Mor still hasn’t been bought up by the San Antonio Spurs why I’m not sure uh there was an issue what five years ago or so where

Marcus Morris was supposed to sign with the Spurs they or said he was going to sign or verbal or whatever they held cap space he didn’t sign it put the Spurs in a tough spot I’m not saying that’s why they haven’t reached the bi agreement

Yet but who knows um could be a petty disagreement I would imagine at some point he’s bought out as long as he’s bought out before March 1st then Marcus Morris would be eligible to play in the postseason with whichever team he signs with so there’s

Still what as of today a week seven days to get this figured out the and the wolves do have that open roster spot so you know I without knowing how the exact like down to the dollar works I think the Wolves could keep Justin Jackson on the 10day sign Marcus Morris on February

29th you know let Justin Jackson play the last two days of his 10day let him go and I think they’d be okay from certainly from a roster spot standpoint they’d be fine they’d be at exactly 15 for a day or two but from a salary cap standpoint you

Know they don’t have a whole lot of they have like a little over a million bucks now uh so all that to say they could still make this work with Marcus Morris or you know insert your favorite buyout candidate or or actual buyout player uh here but so the Justin Jackson signing

Doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t sign Marcus Morris it just means it hasn’t we already knew it hadn’t happened yet but they weren’t able to get it done in time for uh this two- week essentially time limit where they had to sign somebody so who’s Justin Jackson of course he is a

Former first round pick he was drafted 15th overall by the kings in 2017 and uh never quite lived up to the uh the lottery billing uh did did um Justin Jackson he’s in theory was supposed to be a three and D type guy the the jumper never quite developed and

Defensively he was actually pretty disappointing based on his actual physical profile right he’s 6’8 big wingspan um and just never really clicked as an NBA player he played a bunch in Sacramento his first year and a half he was ultimately traded to Dallas played a little bit in their rotation

For a decent team there for you know about a year he was a bench guy played 16 minutes a game in the 1920 season and then bounced around a little bit over the last couple years OKC to Milwaukee in the 2021 season in the 2122 season he

Split it between Boston and Phoenix but he only played in seven total games and then last year he appeared in 23 games with the Boston Celtics for his NBA career over seven seasons he’s played in 278 games 18 minutes a game shot just 31.9 so call it 32% from three and again

The defensive metrics are not kind for Justin Jackson however this season and actually the last three years he’s played a bunch in the g- league the numbers are much better there in fact over the last three years in the g- league he’s played um this is what like 65 games or 62

Games nope 61 games over the last three years and he shot just a shade under 40% from three over the last three seasons this year 41% for three from three for the Texas Legends uh last year he averaged 21 points per game this year just a shade under 20 points per game

And again over 41% from three um that’s a profile of somebody that could theoretically help the wolves he’s also uh done a pretty good job in terms of you know he’s he’s obviously a a wing right he’s not initiating a whole lot of offense but the assist to turnover has

Been good um not a super high usage guy basically as a catch and shoot three-point shooter who in theory can help you defensively because of his length um like he’s a depth piece right and he’s played a role like when he was in Milwaukee in 21 he technically won a

Ring that year he appeared in one regular season game and I actually think he was in a few playoff games with Milwaukee that year I’m sure garbage time uh yeah he played in only one regular season game but he played in five postseason games for Milwaukee in 2021 so he clearly signed

In Milwaukee was available for the postseason as as a depth player um it’s kind of like this happens in baseball all the time right where somebody signs right before the roster cut off on September 1st just so that a team can have them potentially for the playoffs

Um for you know a specialist type role or whatever like Justin Jackson’s not going to be on this team come play halim almost certainly but he gives him another body right now in terms of some depth just in case uh you know the even the the garbage time depth was getting a

Little bit short for Minnesota with some of the guys being dinged up and players that were on assignment down in uh in Iowa with the the g- league team so this gives the Wolves a little bit of depth until they figure out the Marcus Morris thing or you know maybe another buyout

Deal which there hasn’t been any reporting beyond the Patrick Beverly reporting and then some supporting stuff from Darren wolson I think John krinski said some stuff last week about or two weeks ago about confirming the Wolves interest in Marcus Morris we talked about Marcus Morris on the basketball

Party last week the Wednesday show that that we do um on lockdown Sports Minnesota the audio is on this feed in fact the the episode prior to this one if you’re listening in the lockdown wolves audio is this week’s Minnesota basketball party but a couple of weeks ago we talked about Marcus Morrison

About how he is a really good fit in terms of a catch and shoot guy he can provide some touch some toughness um and a little bit of size in in terms of catch and shoot size to the Wolves front Court um somebody that can play a

Minutes if they choose to rest guys down the stretch this year a bit of insurance for you know Nas Reed Etc um in the event you know knad would the wolves have some worst injury luck in the second half of the season so all that to say the Marcus Morris thing could still

Very well happen in fact I’d still bet on it happening um just based on the flurry of of news around it it’s just a matter of whether or not he can figure out this SP with the Spurs the Justin Jackson thing depth piece nothing more he’s not going to obviously see rotation

Minutes this is not a team that was hard up you know for somebody to play in the rotation they just needed to fulfill the roster requirement of having 14 guys is all that that was all right uh next I want to get into this ESPN Contender tiers thing which is just perfect

All-Star break fodder it’s it’s um anyway well we’ll get into it I I’ll give my thoughts on it and uh we’ll talk a little bit about who ESPN Contin con considers to be the top tier contenders um I also want to talk a little bit of

Some of the odds over at FanDuel uh which this kind of uh this exercise or reading this article really kind of made me want to dig a bit in more into this and what things look like here at the All-Star break in terms of uh teams most

Likely to win the uh the finals so we’ll get into all that here next today’s episode of lock that wolvves is brought top title sponsors over at LinkedIn when you’re hiring for your small business you want to find quality professionals that are right for the role that’s why you have to check

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Okay so on I think it was Monday’s show we talked uh Monday or Tuesday we talked about the NBA.com Power Rankings which accurately in my opinion have the timber rolles number two in the NBA John Shuan does a great job at nba.com with his weekly Power Rankings indeed the timber

Rves are second in net rating which in my opinion should almost directly correlate with overall Power Rankings if you’re going to partake in such an exercise and I’ve said before nba.com is the only Power Rankings I will take to heart during the season uh because so much of it is

Noise but here we are I’m being sucked in this isn’t Power Rankings exactly but it’s a similar exercise it’s the NBA Contender tiers over at ESPN and it’s been done by Kevin Pelton who does a fantastic job and of course Very analytically inclined kind of heads up

The ESPN analytics uh NBA analytics and and um I don’t know I like I’m pretty sure he’s just doing these by betting odds of course uh our friends at FanDuel we’ll get to them in a second here but I don’t know like I otherwise I don’t know why

He came up the list the way he did so I’m going to read it off real quick Kevin Pelton has tier one the favorite the Boston Celtics listed as the as the one favorite to win the title which makes a ton of sense and our friends at

Fedal do have them at plus 230 which is um I don’t know that’s still really pretty short odds honestly um for clearly the best team in the league no question but still fairly short odds uh Pelton has tier two the Inner Circle contenders okay so you think that these

Might be I don’t know the number two team number three team in each conference it’s not it’s it’s not at all and and I get it like also again this is based off the betting Nots this isn’t Kevin Pelton running a model and saying like hey here’s what’s most likely to

Happen he’s going off of off of Betty knuts okay so his tier 2 Inner Circle is the Denver Nuggets the LA Clippers and the Milwaukee Bucks all right now Denver is fourth in the west the Clippers are third in the west the Bucks are third in the East they’re

Eight and a half games behind the Celtics and two and a half games behind Cleveland for second and yet they’re the in this Inner Circle Contender tier and I get it the Bucks have been there done that albeit with a you know two coaches too at this

Point the Clippers are the Clippers they have a coach who’s been there done that albe it not with the clippers but they’ve got you know guys like Kawai who have won a title I you know fine the Nuggets obviously were there and did it last year so I understand why Vegas

Believes and Vegas can bet on people betting on them being the favorites but all the way down in tier three is the hopefuls you’ll find the number one team in the Western Conference the Minnesota Timberwolves who are number two in net rating in the entire league in tier three at plus

2500 excuse me plus 2300 with our friends at FanDuel in the same tier as the Cleveland Cavs who are second in the East they’re at plus 2500 the New York Nicks who like they’re 10 games back at the East that rating wise they’re like I don’t know seventh or something but the

Knicks are in this tier at plus 2100 which I’m sorry like hey well let me get back to this it’s this is the most absurd thing about it the Thunder are in there at plus 2500 so just slightly longer odds than Minnesota the Sixers are in that tier at plus 3,000

Which that’s all obviously about Joel embiid’s injury and then the Phoenix Suns are in that tier as well and they’re just plus 1400 on FanDuel so the wolves are behind four teams the Celtics obviously then the Nuggets Clippers bucks and they’re in the same tier as the Cavs Knicks Thunder Sixers and

Suns I’m not going to get into the long shots but it’s got the Mavs Warriors Lakers heat Pelicans uh I I don’t know why the Lakers are their odds are as short as they are at plus 5,000 which is still crazy but like it’s too low for the Lakers to to

Win the title so here’s the thing I get the track record stuff and BAS basically Pelton goes into this in his article um he calls them the hopefuls he talks about well I’ll just read a chunk of it he says this tier is largely represented by newcomers to the contender ranks the

Season ended today four of the eight teams to host opening round playoff series would have combined for one Series win since the 2018 season and that was last year’s Knicks by contrast of the four teams above the hopefuls in the tiers everyone but the Clippers has

Won eight Series in that span all by itself now that’s true but we can talk all day if we want wanted to about the Celtics postseason shortcomings we could talk about the Clippers postseason shortcomings we could talk about the Bucks of this year and last year in the

Shortcomings I don’t know I putting the Clippers in Bucks as far ahead of the Wolves as they are seems really Bonkers to me the Clippers are plus 500 on FanDuel the Bucks are plus 650 the wolves are almost four times that and more than four times the Clippers odds the wolves are plus

2300 like I I get it and I get I get why Vegas says okay and why FanDuel you know there’s people that will bet on this because of you know the the the public money for the LA team which Speaking of public money let’s talk about the

Knicks the Knicks have better odds than the Timberwolves to win the NBA Finals right now which is the craziest thing we could talk net rating we could talk common opponents or or or record against the best teams in the league we could talk standings the Knicks are 10 back

And the East and only a half game up on the on the on the 76ers for the four seed the Knicks are a loss away from falling out of homecourt advantage in the East and needing to face the Sixers or bucks most likely in the first round of

The playoffs and I get that the West is tougher than the East and that that’s baked in here a bit too I mean if you look at well I don’t know I guess actually if you look at the Vegas odds the first the top nine teams I think five are from the

West and four are from the East so maybe it’s not really all that baked in but for anyone the sing nucks nucks the Knicks plus 21100 over the Wolves at plus 2300 like what are you what are you doing the dicks aren’t going to get past the Celtics that’s less likely than the

Wolves getting past the teams they’re already ahead of in the standings like the Clippers and the nuggets and the Suns who everybody wants to pick it’s just it’s just nuts I like I I don’t know um but anyway back to Pelton again he’s just going going off

Of these betting odds he’s not doing any real projections here at this point depending on where you look the wolves have basically a 6065 is% chance to lock down the number one seed in the west mostly at this point because they’ve got the advantage albeit just by a game and a half over

OKC but there is no tiebreaker there they’re tied with OKC they’ve already beaten the Clippers twice so worst case that’s a wash right they’re not going to lose that tiebreaker they’re up one nothing on Denver um they’ve beaten a bunch of good teams already and they are already

Have the majority of the road games in the books like they like uh they’ve got seven more home games than Road games in the second half or the post Allstar break schedule so uh there’s a really good chance the wolves get the number one seed in the

West and there’s obviously then a very good chance they get past the first round whereas like the Nuggets if they finish fourth they’re going to have to face the Suns or a healthy Zion and the pelican or healthy LCA in the Mavs or you know same thing with the

Clippers right like I don’t know it seems pretty crazy to me and and I’m not saying the Wolves should be the favorites the Celtics should be and I understand putting the nuggets in the Clippers in the same conversation as the Wolves but for there to be that big of a

Disparity of the Wolves being plus 2300 the bucks at plus 650 the Clippers at plus 500 and the nuggets at plus 440 seems really really crazy to me okay I want to close by talking a little bit about the Wolves offense and uh some context of turnover prone teams over the

Last couple years in the playoffs we’ll do all that here next today’s episode of lockedown wolves is brought To Us by our friends over at FanDuel get buckets with your first bet on FanDuel America’s number one sports book right now new customers get 150 bucks in bonus Bets with any winning a

$5 bet again $150 in bonus bets if your bet wins you can bet on all your favorite NBA players and teams with quick bets live same game parlay’s exclusive props and more and I just spent a good chunk of the last segment talking about these odds on FanDuel

Again plus 2300 for the wolves in terms of longer shots the Thunder at plus 2500 might actually be you know just as good of a bet the Sixers at plus 3,000 hoping that embiid gets healthy that’s not a bad bet I would take the Mavs at plus

3600 before the Knicks at Plus 21100 honestly like I get Jaylen brunson’s good but Luca donic is better and I don’t know like the Knicks maybe a better pound-for-pound team but I think given again the despar in the odds plus 2100 for the Knicks plus 3600 for the

Mavs the Mavs are actually a better bet I like the Pelicans at plus 5500 but the Wolves at plus 2300 to me is still a crazy bet again you can bet at all your favorite NBA players and your favorite teams like the Wolves at plus 2300 to win the

Finals over at FanDuel quick bets live same game parlays exclusive props and more visit fanduel.com lockon and shoot your shot FanDuel official Sportsbook partner of the NBA all right uh so the Timberwolves have turnover issues I know that’s not breaking news it’s been a problem All Season consistently for Minesota

And it’s been kind of the I don’t know like if you if you ask people like hey what’s the what’s the major what’s the main issue with the Wolves you know most people say it’s the offensive turnovers and actually we did an ex a version of this exercise on the Minnesota

Basketball party on Wednesday where Sam asked the panelist he asked us what’s the one thing you’re that the Wolves need to do in the second half of the Season or the post allar break schedule or however he phrased it and mine was shoot more threes like just simply the

Volume needs to increase they’re third of the league in percentage uh the volume has increased since mid January and they’ve been a top 12 offense since February 1st when the three-point shooting has been kind of that 14th 15th 16th in the league in terms of rate if

That volume goes up this offense gets better the offense gets better the team wins the other thing and and Jack talked a little bit about the wolves about Anthony Edwards playmaking specifically which is a great take also but their one weakness has been turnover rate and if you look at like the

Top I don’t know top five team in the league and I’m going to do this by net rating Boston Minnesota OKC the Clippers and the Cavs there aren’t very many instances of these teams being bottom five in anything right so Boston’s defense doesn’t turn teams over but that doesn’t

Really matter that’s maybe the least important of the quote unquote four factors um would be defensive turnover rate and you know the only other like glaring wart that any of these teams has is OKC’s rebounding which is a major issue on both ends of the floor they’re 28th in offensive rebound rate they’re

They’re 29th in defensive rebound rate according to cleaning the glass the Timberwolves turnover issues on offense are the only thing that’s close in terms of you know the best teams having the biggest issues their 28th in turnover rate and they’re only a half percentage Point behind the two teams tied for 30th

Which is Utah and Detroit of course two not good teams especially in the case of Detroit the fact that the Wolves turn the ball over at almost the same rate as the Detroit Pistons is is pretty horrific actually um however that’s really the only like yah but about the

Timberwolves offense besides the volume of three-point shots the playmaking improved overall the shooting percentage is good the shot profile is good we talked about this earlier in the week on the show The Wolves shoot the right Shots by and large a few too many long twos but for the most part they’re

Shooting within 10 feet quite a bit they’re shooting a lot of corner threes they shoot the percentage of Threes is good they just need to shoot a little more or I should say the the percentage on threes their actual three-point shooting percentage is very good a few

More above the break threes can get mixed in from Conley from Alexander Walker especially from car towns and we’ve seen that over the last few weeks but turnover eight is a major problem I’m not here to tell you it’s not a problem because it is so I want to

Get that out of the way but I think it’s notable that if you look at the last two NBA champions turnover rate has not been a problem for them last year’s NBA Champions the Denver Nuggets we’re 24th in turnover rate uh I’m looking at basketball reference so I’m going to Quick pull up

The cleaning the glass so we’re talking apples to apples here um again the real quick spill here is is uh cleaning the glass takes out garbage time which is nice so according to to uh clean the glass they’re 20th in turnover rate according to basketball reference

They’re 24th last year um so they were bottom 10 no matter how you slice it in terms of turnover rate on offense similarly to the Wolves there were you know first in effective field goal percentage they did everything else really well they got to the line

Actually not all that often but um their offense was predicated on Joker passing the ball which is also why the turnover rate was a little bit High because Joker’s always been a bit turnover Pro that’s just the way he plays high-risk High reward when it comes to his passing but go back two

Seasons the 2021 2022 Golden State Warriors who were a bit of a surprise title winner we talked about this on Wednesday show about their offense ranked uh what like 18th I think it was actually I’ve got it right here uh their offense ranked 17th in the regular season that year then they went

On to win the title they were 29th in turnover rate second to last they turned it over on 15.2% of their possessions in the regular season they went on to win the title that year 15.2% you want to know what the Wolves is right now 15.1% so a nearly ident iCal turnover

Rate to the NBA champions two years ago not saying it’s okay but I’m saying it can be done there is precedent for a team that’s turnover prone to win a title very very recently okay and last year by the way Denver was 20th their turnover rate was

14.5% so lower by a half percentage point but not significantly lower so recent history tells us and of course the Warriors have pretty much throughout their Dynasty been fairly turnover prone with mostly because of the pace they play at the Wolves don’t play at an extremely high pace which is partly what

Makes this so frustrating is these are silly half court turnovers it’s not trying to be the globe TRS and get out in transition and shoot threes and it’s not yic passes it’s just being sloppy and unforced errors which also like well it’s maddening it’s it also gives hope

That this thing can be fixed right like they could snap out of it at some point I mean it really feels like that should be the case and even go back three years like go to the 2122 season Golden State and Miami each won 53 regular season games and they were 29th

And 28th respectively in turnover rate again that year golden state was 15.2% uh turnover rate and in that same year Miami 28th it turnover rate 14.9% so uh yeah there’s precedent go back the year prior to that the Lakers weren’t a juggernaut exact they didn’t have a great offense they won 42 games

They had a 28th ranked turnover rate so there’s absolutely presedent precedent for teams with high turnover rates to make the playoffs and have success in the playoffs especially in the case of Denver last year and Golden State being the best example two years ago it is a

Problem it is improving if the volume of three-point attempts goes up and the turnovers go down just a little bit we could be looking at an offense that’s you know currently they’re they’re 15th we’re not talking about a bottom 10 offense anymore you go over to cleaning the glass they are 15th in

Offense and number one easily in defense you’re going to see that offense continue to tick upward they’re only point4 points per 100 possessions behind Sacramento they’re only one point behind 13th like they’re coming it’s it’s inching up this the uh the rankings they’re going to be top 12 I think by

The time we get to April 1 if this if this team can continue that upward trajectory uh with the overall offense all right that’s all we have for you today here on the show Friday we’ll get into a couple other um kind of bigger picture type things before we preview

The Bucks game we’ll try and get our hands on a uh an injury report here headed into wolves bucks we’ll also talk about Friday uh during the day ESPN’s on location in Minneapolis going to do a bunch of extra stuff I believe First Take maybe NBA today um like various

Shows will be uh hosted in Minnesota on location before the Wolves Bucks game at 9:00 p.m. central Friday night so be sure to tune in to all that on Friday we’ll talk about all it on Friday’s show as well a big thank you for making lock

De wolves your first list in every day of course this show is free and available everywhere including YouTube as well as all of your favorite audio platforms you can also watch on the lockdown Sports Minnesota app on both Roku and Amazon Fire TV AG follow on X

At lock done T wolves and also at B Beacon with 2bs 2 e cken of course the lockon Wolves podcast is part of the lockdown podcast Network remember the lockdown network is your local experts on all the biggest stories once again I’m Ben Beacon this is the lockedown Wolves podcast and we’ll catch

You next time

The Minnesota Timberwolves signed Justin Jackson to a 10-day contract. Ben Beecken (@bbeecken) breaks down the signing, including why the Wolves picked him up and what Jackson brings to the table. Plus, a look at ESPN’s contender tiers and a discussion about the FanDuel odds for NBA Finals winners. Which tier do the Wolves actually belong in — and why are they behind the New York Knicks?? Plus, a look at recent success of turnover-prone playoff teams.

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