College Basketball Picks Today (2/26/24) | Best NCAAB Bets & Predictions

College Basketball Picks Today (2/26/24) | Best NCAAB Bets & Predictions

What’s up everybody Mesi here back again with the odd shopper channel today we’re talking some college basketball it is Monday February the 26 we’re three weeks out from selection Sunday everything’s heating up we have three big Power Six conference games tonight bunch of mid Majors we’ll talk it all before we get

Started make sure to hit that Thumbs Up Button subscribe to the channel and hit the notification Bell see when this and all other content goes live we’re also brought to you by bet MGM they have a limited time offer for those of you in legal Bing states with the exception of

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That’s huge heading into conference tournaments March Madness you can allocate that however you’d like if you were someone you know has a gambling problem please call or text 1800 gambler you must be 21 or older to play in most areas all right shorter video today I’m

Heading to the dentist I chip my front tooth on on a spoon that’s neither here nor there but had to cut the video a little short so we’ll do a little rapid fire at the end after talking the big games circling back to the weekend

Briefly we did learn a lot I think major just high level takeaways Houston looked awesome against Baylor a game that went into overtime but Houston got it done on the road they battled their us ual fouls but persisted so that was a huge win for them we’ll talk about Baylor today we

Saw Kentucky play really really well score over 100 points against Bama that’s something that I think if they can put together routinely Kentucky is going to be a really dangerous team North Carolina wins on the road that was pretty expected against Virginia team that hasn’t scored 50 points in three

Straight games egregiously Duke they fall victim to Wake Forest we’ve been big fans of Wake Forest this year so seeing them pick up a key win was huge as far as duke moving forward Philip Kowski injured in the court storming I don’t really have anything to say about

That take care of business and you won’t be victim to court storming but yeah that’s a question for them moving forward otherwise not too much in the low-level stuff Washington state did not cover we were on BYU that did not work out BC could not cover against NC State

Which is a little bit concerning for that team moving forward but let’s turn the page overall it ended up being a profitable weekend and that’s what counts so we have three games in power six conferences tonight and we’ll start with Miami taking on North Carolina the beginning of the year you

Would have told me this is a 14-point spread I would have told you you’re crazy but that’s where we stand right now with Miami the total is 154 and a half which I think is a bit Rich we’ll talk about why Miami is in complete freef fall they have been for a while

Now they’ve dealt with injuries I hesitate to say this is all to blame they have a large nil budget that they spend each off season and what they’ve gotten from some of these players is simply unacceptable but they have been hurt most recently that’s been Nigel pack he’s still not playing I

Don’t think we see him today which is a huge question for this team he’s one of their better Shooters they need to shoot the ball well in this match up if they’re going to hang with North Carolina they did shoot the ball well in the first matchup for the most part and

Nigel pack was the engine of that he was four of eight from three and that really kept him in the game North Carolina had a they had a three-point win against Miami but that was on Miami’s home court now of course they’re on the road so I

Mean if they don’t have pack they’re going to rely on kesan George who’s a 40% three-point shooter wuga Popper’s at 41 but with these you still have a lot of es and flows these guys have massive samples over 100 attempts each from three popler is at 146 but still a good

Shooter there the matchup is still really tough for this Miami team I mean they seed a ton of height in every matchup but against Bott and Harrison on the interior this North Carolina team is 61st in effective height Miami’s 239th if NORAD gets in foul trouble this team

Is absolutely cooked kishan George has been awesome for this team but he’s still only a six8 freshman when you’re battling veterans like Harrison Ingram and Armond Bott that’s not going to be a matchup you really want to bet on so North Carolina has vast advantages inside both these teams are pretty good

At shooting threes we mentioned Miami the only reason that game was within three points the first time they met is because they shot the three well they’re 38th and three-point percentage the problem is you have excellent Defenders on the perimeter for North Carolina as well it’s not just Bott and Ingram RJ

Davis has been solid Seth trembles back and while he’s only getting about 15 minutes per game he is one of the better Defenders on paper so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him jump maybe back up to 18 20 minutes in this game as they try to defend popper Nigel he plays

Benley Joseph whoever it may be for Miami but the reason I think you can look to the tempo in an under instead of the spread which is balloon pretty far is just pacing North Carolina’s been pretty consistent pacing wise all season long they’re hovered around 4550 they’ve

Ed and flowed a little bit in that range but Miami has slowed from 109th that’s their season long Tempo to 231 in the last six weeks and I think a lot of this just has to do with injuries they’re playing a short bench and guys are going

To get tired when you’re playing 39 minutes a game and that’s what they’ve had to do with some players because of injuries I don’t anticipate this Tempo being any faster they’re also trying to add volatility to games by reducing possession simply because they’re outmatched in a lot of games so that is

The main driver of the under in this pick North Carolina should be able to largely do what they want inside they’ll face a little more resistance from three but then this is a terrible offensive matchup for Miami with North Carolina excelling really everywhere Miami is good on

Offense all right let’s head to our second contest we are in the Big 12 we have Baylor taking on TCU Baylor we talked about briefly at the beginning of the show we saw them over the weekend overtime game against Houston no shame losing a game against Houston but now

They face TCU these teams have the same record I do think there is a gap in Talent Baylor should have advantages over TCU but Baylor’s a team that doesn’t exactly defend well they’re fifth in offense 98th in defense TCU is a little more balanced both of these teams

Are pretty decent with all the effective height metrics Baylor’s 21st TCU is 90th so not really seeing anything there you can see that in the rebounding numbers we’ve got two top 30 rebounding units and two teams that attack the offensive glass both top 25 so what are the edges

I think this really just comes down to Baylor shooting and like Bama like some of these other teams that live and die by the three it can lead to streaky performances but Baylor’s still number two in the country in three point percentage percentage they’re 134th and three-point rate TCU they defend the

Three decently 64th overall but this a matchup that Baylor should be able to win on the inside there’s also matchup advantages really for both teams we have two teams top 70ish in scoring on the interior and two defense that are outside the top 175 at defending that

Area so I don’t really see this as an advantage for either team both teams should have success scoring inside when you look at the margin of three point percentage versus three point defense for these teams Baylor should have a slight Edge over TCU in this area the

Other thing that TCU really relies on and what boosts their defensive efficiency numbers is their turnovers created they’re 26 and turnovers forced Baylor is 193 at turnovers committed which isn’t the best number so this is a slight concern for me especially with Baylor potentially being down lengths

And love again which looks like it’ll be the case you’re really reliant on Ray J Dennis at the point guard to not turn the ball over and his turnover rate is pretty high this year which is a bit surprising you look at rayj Dennis throughout his career his story career

Across programs the turnover rate hasn’t always been this high this is a guy that had an 11 and a half% turnover rate at Toledo last year low level of competition I know but it’s jumped to 24% at Baylor I think we do see some positive aggression for Ray J Dennis in

Turnovers but honestly this is more of a leap of faith than anything that’s analytical you can just look at the full sample for Ray J the turnovers he’s had this year and hopefully that’ll be enough where you know this TCU team doesn’t actually turn over Baylor all that much in this game

But I took a three this is moving to two and a half if you can find threes I think this is worth taking a two and a half I’m a little hesitant this just speaks to some of the tools we have over at odd Shopper use this it makes your

Life so easy you can filter by state you can filter by book whatever it is you use this is highly customizable it gives you the best place to find these Wagers and attack these teams we also have a ton in these packages we have a market based approach which gives you plus EV

Bets across Sports it’s not just college basketball there’s NBA NHL player props whatever it is that you like to attack and now our discord’s included everything’s included in this package it’s $4.95 for your first week it is $49.95 for a month there’s no long-term commitments check it out I think it’ll

Help you guys a lot it helps me a lot but Baylor plus three if you can find it two and a half I think is okay wouldn’t be at the top of the card let’s go to game number three we’re going to remain in the Big 12 West Virginia takes on

TCU this is a game excuse me Kansas State we just talked TCU West Virginia Kansas State game with a 10-point spread in favor of Kansas State we’ve talked about West Virginia a lot on this show they are a team that hasn’t been healthy aside from a few games this year and a

Team that I’ve been trying to buy low on it worked against Iowa State they had a pretty good game that box score was a little weird somehow they withstood 23 turnovers which is a big issue for that team against Iowa State it was largely just inefficient inefficiency on the

Part of the Cyclones where West Virginia covers that spread but it was 18 points I mean they they kept it within single digits so Props to West Virginia was a good showing for them and now they’ll face Kansas State who plays a little bit like Iowa State but it’s more of just a

Poor man’s version they can’t score and they’ve actually gotten significantly worse at scoring and I’m not sure it’s getting better anytime soon they play a very tight rotation it’s just basically Perry Carter and Kuma getting every single minute and then they’ll rotate a couple of the guys around them but West

Virginia has shown pretty decent improvements since they got their players back and it’s been the opposite for Kansas State since conference play really January started West Virginia 143 in offensive efficiency so they’ve jumped about 20 spots there defensive efficiencies remain consistent they’re at 117 effective field goal has made a

Massive jump this team is just more efficient on offense they go from 263 all the way up to 127 in the last six weeks Kansas state has experienced the exact opposite you look at this team over the last six weeks in Big 12 play they were 214th in effective field goal

Percentage on the year they’ve dropped to 238 their overall offensive efficiency has gone from 174 to 238 on defense work that’s something that’s going to be consistent for this team but man they cannot score the ball and it is getting worse with the defensive stuff for West Virginia I think you also have

Room for improvement just getting Edwards back their overall best defender on the floor and with Kansas State you really only have to worry about the three and they’re not even that good at that two point percentage this team they are 100th and then they shoot a ton of

Threes 81st in the country three-point rate the problem is they’re 310th in three-point percentage so I mean if West Virginia a reasonable job defending the three this team should have a chance to cover this spread as far as some of the ancillary stuff rebounding there is a

Gap but height-wise there’s not it’s 55 to 67 so I do think you I do think you see this narrow with West Virginia 232 in rebounding that’s going to come up just having Edwards back turnover stuff neither team really generates a ton of that T Kansas State definitely generates more

But not talking vast gaps and foul trouble neither team really deals with fouls all that much so in a game that projects to be fairly slower in Pace West Virginia 128 Kansas State 2115 think we can take the value of the point with West Virginia in this spot all

Right let’s get to one greasy game we have Delaware State taking on NC Central this is a game where I going to back a home team in NC Central and I think if you can find a four and a half a four it’s fine I’m seeing some fives if that’s the number

You end up grabbing no problem of course use odd Chopper find the best one you can overall edges for Delaware State and NC Central most of them lie on the NC Central side offense there is a vast Gap it’s 265 to 348 on defense there is a slight Edge Delaware’s Direction on the

Year but I think this is actually move towards NC Central as conference play has started shooting it’s not even close NC Central 267 Delaware State 341 there is one I want to highlight here rebounding NC Central they’re 338 in effective High Delaware state is 38th this Gap we have a top 100 rebounding

Team in Delaware State versus NC Central 255 now neither team is dealing with any injuries so this is with full Personnel there’s been a shift over the last six weeks in conference it’s a smaller sample so take this for what it’s worth but I at least want to mention it

Offensive rebounding percentage for NC centrals gone up to 116th in the last six weeks defense has gone to 126 meanwhile Delaware State offense of 121 defense of 288 the Gap is significantly narrowed between these two teams since conference plays really gotten underway since the New Year again there is a

Height Advantage Delaware States Direction so I hesitate to really buy into these numbers but they are there and it needs to be noted aside from that effective field goal percentage over the last six weeks it has not gotten better for Delaware state they’re 293 whereas NC Central is 148 meanwhile the

Defensive efficiency between these teams is narrowed so the one potential Edge you see with Delaware State it’s starting to evaporate as NC Central gets their legs under them in conference play I’m seeing four still I’m also seeing fives I show model or I show value with

The model even at five so I think this is a number you could potentially look at assuming you can’t find the four otherwise that’ll do it for us let’s rapid fire a few other interesting ones as I’m headed to the dentist here shortly liking Texas Southern Arkansas

Pine Bluffin over at 147 a half Prairie View A&M Mississippi Valley State an over at 135 and a half Lamar covering the 11 at MCN and Alabama State bethon cookman taking Alabama State plus three that is all I have for now it’s a shorter slate so talk the four in depth

The four extras if you have any questions reach out to me on Twitter _ gajeski DMS are open you can also leave a comment below that helps the video a ton if you’ve done that thank you very much we’ll be back tomorrow for a full super Tuesday until then good luck

Everyone we’ll see you next time

College Basketball Bets Monday February 26 NCAAB Picks & Predictions Today

Matt Gajewski gives his best CBB NCAA bets, picks and predictions for 2/26/24.

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College Basketball Picks & Predictions Today

00:00 Best NCAAB Picks & CBB Predictions
2:34 Miami vs North Carolina
6:00 Baylor vs TCU
9:38 West Virginia vs Kansas State
12:51 Delaware State vs NC Central

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