Why did the Minnesota Timberwolves pick TJ Warren? Plus, offensive improvement + March predictions
Hello and welcome into another episode of lockdown wolves today in the show we’re going to talk about presumptive Timberwolves Edition TJ Ward he hasn’t officially signed yet but I want to talk about the potential fit for TJ Warren to the Wolves roster why the Wolves would look at adding the veteran Wing or
Veteran forward I guess rather to the fold here on a 10-day contract plus I want to talk about the Wolves offense since February 1 it’s actually been better than you might expect and there’s been way less turnovers than you’d expect as well I also want to predict
The month of March it’s all up coming welcome and you are locked on wolves you are locked on Timberwolves your daily Minnesota Timberwolves podcast part of the locked on podcast Network your team every Day hello and welcome to the lock down wolves podcast part of the lockdown podcast Network your team every day my name is Ben Beacon I’m the host of lock on wolves happy Wednesday everybody happy hump day and a big thank you for making lock down wolves your first
Listen every single day of course this show is free and available everywhere that includes YouTube as well as all of your favorite audio platforms wherever you listen to podcast you can find lockon wolves you can also watch on the lockdown Sports Minnesota app on both Roku and Amazon Fire TV and you can
Follow on X at lockone wolves and also at B Beacon with 2 B’s 2 e CK all right so over the weekend it was reported believe sham Shania of uh the athletic and stadium was the first to report if I’m not mistaken that the tials were planning to sign TJ Warr into
A 10-day contract so a bit of context here and then I want to get into the potential fit first of all he hasn’t actually signed yet as of me recording this late on Tuesday of this week um and the report I think was Saturday um I’m pretty confident it was Saturday it
Might have even been Friday actually of last week the tipal of course had Justin Jackson on a 10-day deal they had to sign Somebody by two weeks after the trade deadline because there’s a rule that you can’t have just 13 guys under regular standard contracts well standard including 10 days so non two-way
Contracts you can’t go more than 14 consecutive days with uh less than 14 players and there’s a total number of days too which I believe is 20s something like the wolves are now at like 16 or something like that so they’re coming up on that here pretty
Quickly um anyway but there were 14 consecutive days and then they signed Justin Jackson to the 10-day deal he appeared in a couple of games mostly in garbage time for the wolves and um now they have to sign somebody else because like I said they’re coming up on
That next kind of threshold where you know the overall for the season not not just the consecutive day number that you have to have at least 14 guys on the 15 man roster of course that’s something the NFL NFL the NBA pa pushed for of course um
And TJ Warren for all intens and purposes is a bit of uh not all that different from what Justin Jackson provides as well the same type of player right a little bit more of a of a you know small forward power forward versus a two3 wing um but the idea of TJ Warren
Is basically you’re bringing in a veteran with some size that can play both forward spots um he’s played a bit more power forward the last couple of years than he did early in his career um and in theory is a good three-point shooter now TJ Warren was a solid
Rotation player early in his career for some Bad Suns teams he played on some improving Suns teams and then he went to Indiana for what ended up really just being a season and he was great in the bubble in the Pacers playoff sweep he averaged I think 20 points a game a
Little north of 20 points per game in four games all losses in the bubble for the Pacers that year and then the following season he hurt his foot missed the balance after four games missed the balance of the 2021 season and missed the entire 2122 season so across two
Seasons post first covid year he played in just four games and then last year he split the season between Brooklyn and and Phoenix he was traded back to the Suns did appear in some playoff games for Phoenix last year he’s still only thir years old uh he he turned 30 back in the
Fall however since the foot injury he’s only played one season it was just 42 games last year only averaged 16 minutes per game in those minute in those games and shot under 33% from three okay so over the you could say it this way too over the last three seasons not
Including this year so Four Seasons if you include this year he’s played in only 46 total games and he shot 30 or no 29.7% from three over those 46 games prior to that so now we’re talking all the way back when he was 26 years old he averaged
Nearly 20 points per game for the Pacers in that series when he or in that season where ultimately in the bubble the covid bubble he he also scored 20 per game but he shot 40% from three scored 19.8 points per game over 67 contests the
Year prior he dealt with s and JS as well with Phoenix and he shot 43% from three and averaged 18 points per game the year before that he was actually uh received votes for most improved player with Phoenix and he averaged nearly 20 points per game that year as well that
Was before he started shooting threes with regularity but he had consecutive years where he was north of 40% from three-point range and and around that in terms of catch and shoot threes as well so 26y old TJ Warren was an extremely valuable player and there were some positive moments defensively as well I
Think over overall the idea of him playing defense because of his physical profile and and the way he plays overall I think the eye test um was maybe a bit misleading the metrics don’t love what he did other than that 1920 season which unfortunately came right before the
Injury so post injury I’ll say it again 46 games over the last three plus seasons and shooting under 30% from three there’s a high likelihood that T.J Warren just doesn’t have it anymore he’s 30 years old had a major foot injury hasn’t played it all this season I I think the Wolves calculation
Here is hey another veteran presence a guy who at least knows what he would do with himself defensively you could kind of plug-and playay him he’s got size he can play the three and the four although in most wolves lineups he would end up playing the three he’s essentially an
Alternative to Kyle Anderson in that he’s a solid Team Defender nearly has the same not he’s not quite as big as slow-mo but similar size as is Kyle Anderson and is obviously a better shooter even the version of TJ Warren that um you know has shot 30% over the last
Few years he’s going to be a more respected we’ll say it that way a more respected shooter from the perimeter than Kyle Anderson is there’s no question about that um so I would see this almost as and again this is almost surely a 10-day contract assuming to get
Signed it is it is going to be a 10-day contract if it’s almost Kyle Anderson Insurance it gives the Wolves a backup option again I’ll I’ll say it again defensive similarities um similar enough in size but if you’re playing a team where hey we need this shooting on offense or he’s
Gonna play with Mike connley and or Anthony Edwards so we don’t need the the the playmaking ability that Kyle erson brings he doesn’t need to be the straw that stir the drink TJ Warren can be that low usage catch and shoot guy now the catch and shoot numbers aren’t as
Good as you want them to be like they’re not most guys are going to have a catch and shoot three-point percentage that’s a few percentage points higher than their just straight up percentage right because it’s easier to catch and shoot than it is to shoot off the dribble um
But TJ Warren’s kind of hover right around where his regular his normal three-point shooting percentage is so you know I I’m fine with the addition it makes sense from a like well first of all like hey this is your 10th or 11th guy and it’s a 10-day contract so it’s
It’s really just filling the roster but it’s somebody who could be plug-and play The Wolves find themselves in a rock fight in one of these games upcoming if you know there’s injuries file trouble whatever I mean like we weren’t far away from having Josh Minot and Justin
Jackson play Rotation minut what was it Saturday or um Sunday’s game or whatever so he should be plug-and play the question is how much does he have left in the tank but beyond the 10-day contract that doesn’t really matter um why him over Marcus morrris Senor obviously the wolves are are not
Signing Marcus Morris my guess is it’s just the defensive flexibility is a little greater with TJ Warren again the metrics aren’t super kind and he’s getting up there in years he not as old as Marcus Morris and he’s always been a better perimeter Defender I shouldn’t say always well probably uh but he’s
Certainly a better option now as a perimeter Defender than Morris would have been and I think that positional flexibility defensively especially could have been what tipped the scales um in in favor of TJ Warren so the deal is not official as of now I would expect that it would be here in
The next couple of days and I don’t expect him to see the floor but if he does I understand why they’re bringing in somebody like a TJ Warren uh for sure all right next I want to get into the tals offense over the last few weeks here perhaps better that certainly in
Some areas better than what I expected when I pulled the numbers then I also want to predict the month of March all that’s up coming well welcome uh all that up coming here next today’s episode of locky wolves is brought To Us by our friends at eBay Motors passion drive and patience what
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Sports today now available on the free Fire TV channels app all right um let’s talk a little bit about the Tim rules offense over the last call it month plus relatively arbitrarily I went back to February 1 it is arbitrary but I mean that’s often how we splice things up right is
Since the first of the last month or the last six weeks or whatever so I’m back to February 1st and I I had this sense that at least here of late the Tim rolls defense or Tims offense excuse me had been marginally better in terms of avoiding turnovers now Friday against the Kings
Sunday against the Clippers we talked about how the Wolves sloppy live ball turnovers led to easy transition points the other way for their opponents in each game The Wolves of course now well documented they were out scored 38 nothing in Fast Break points 38 nothing in transition points between Friday’s
Win or excuse me Friday’s loss to the kings in overtime and Sunday’s loss to the Clippers however going back a bit further the turbl have actually done a better which is the keyword uh or or we’ll even call it a marginally better job or they’ve improved marginally over the last
Fiveish weeks in terms of their turnover rate for much of the year the Wolves hovered between the 28th and 30th mark on both cleaning the glass and basketball reference in terms of their turnover rate and and if you’re not familiar turnover you know turnovers per game that’s obvious what that is but it
Doesn’t take into account Pace how many opportunities the team has to turn the ball over so anytime we talk about a rate based stat it’s just a percentage of the team’s possessions right so a usage rate is the percentage of a team’s possession that end with an action By
Any Given individual player turnover rate is how what percentage of the teams percentage excuse me teams possessions end in a turnover so for an individual player if you have a turnover rate of 10% that means 10% of your team’s overall possessions uh end in your turnover okay in this case we’re talking
About team turnover rate so what percentage of the Timberwolves possessions end in a turnover the Timberwolves for the year have hovered between 28th and 30th they’re actually now at 25th which was my first clue well I mean my first clue was I guess it just kind
Of felt like they were tur it over less but my next clue was they overall now are barely bottom five actually technically not bottom five they’re sixth worst in the league in terms of turnover eight since February 1st the wolves are 18th in turnover rate still not good still barely middle of
The pack but out of that bottom 10 and into that next kind of span of teams over that stretch since February 1st the wolves are 9 and5 overall with a plus 11 Point differential of course they’ve had some bad luck in close games and not entirely luck but call it what
You want they’ve struggled in close games um so the point differential would you you’d expect them to have been better than 9 and5 since February 1 but they are number 18 in turnover rate offensively they’re holding strong at number two since February 1 in terms of free throw rate and their effective
Field goal percentage which this would be the the one thing that’s holding them down like before February 1 we we said all along hey the wolv shot profile is good they make their shots from the perimeter and at the line they don’t shoot too many true mid-range jumpers a
Lot of that stuff’s in the paint the stuff that’s not a th outside the line outside the mar Arc is is coming for the painted area anyway so like QB Brown calling it The Painted area um the uh shop profile is still very similar but the percentage the actual
Affective field goal percentage has come down a little bit but it’s still not bad like it’s fine I mean the Wolves overall location effective field goal percentage this season total is fourth overall or excuse me since February 1st is fourth overall I think they’re fifth overall for the season their effective field
Goal percentage since February 1st is 13th still a good Mark 55.5% effective field goal percentage um but with the Improvement in turnover rate if they had just kind of held serve with their effective field goal rate to this point then we’d be talking about an offense that instead
Of what their 14th in the league by the way since February 1st overall which is a really nice number to see their top half of the league over the last five weeks offensively um but the the overall improve like if they had that was I lost my TR thought for a
Second if the Timberwolves had just kind of you know the Improvement that we’ve seen in terms of turnover rate if they had just kind of held serve in terms of effective field goal percentage we’d be looking at a top 10 offense instead of a top 14 offense and I know that’s easier
Said than done you know there’s a bit of a give and take here but it’s not crazy for this team to shoot the ball as they were for much of the season to this point and then also trim back on the turnovers so overall 14th in offensive
Rating side note the defense is still easily number one since February 1st uh for the year they’re 2.9 points better than the next best team in terms of points per 100 possessions defensively and this is this is again cleaning the glass which takes out garbage time possessions and heaves at the end of
Quarters they’re 2.9 better for the year they’re also 2.9 points better than Boston over the the last five weeks since February 1st the timber roles per 100 possessions are 2.9 points per 100 possessions better than the next best team and the other teams are all clumped together
Boston Miami wor at a tenth of a point only 610 of a point behind is New Orleans uh and then it spreads out just a little bit there but um the wolves are as I’ve been saying pretty much all season number one with the bullet in terms of their defensive performance to
This point in the year the biggest thing for me though is is the decrease in turnovers and uh there’s been some individuals that still struggle with that obviously but as a team there’s just been less careless stuff and I know we’re coming on the heels of the the Kings Clippers thing
Over the weekend but for the most part over the last several weeks the wolves have mostly taken care of the ball now you mix in those Portland games RI before the break that helped quite a bit obviously um but you know credit where credits due and the offense even though
The late game offense has its issues and and that’s not primarily turnover rate right because the game slows down and that’s more just shot selection and then actual execution of both the play and making jumpers or making field goal attempts are challenges there um but yeah I mean
I that still matters right even given the late game issues that the wolves have had it still matters that that turnover rate is is dropping for the Wolves here over the last few weeks all right let’s look at March and I’m going to give a prediction for what I think
Will happen to the Wolves record wise in March and what that might mean for the Western Conference playoffs uh playoff picture here uh coming up we’ll do all that here next today’s episode of locky wolves is sponsored by better help sometimes we all need the opportunity to get something off our
Chest big or small certain things can really start to get to you it’s important to let all that out especially to someone who’s unbiased on your life so today I’m going to talk about something that I feel strongly about you might even be thinking about the same
Thing this week and of course um you know there’s bigger problems out there but anything that kind of grinds your gears or really gets on your nerves or gets you going is important to think about and talk about and I’m going to talk about the timber rules maintaining
Their spot at the top of the Western Conference and yet it’s still can we find someone besides the wolves that could be a finals favorite right it’s is it the Clippers is it the Nuggets is it the Lakers are still being talked about I saw the other day on ESPN it was like
Which team’s more likely to make the finals the Lakers or the Clippers like why are we doing this why are we doing this when the number the top three and I’ll tell you why the top three teams in the Western Conference standings are all mid to smaller markets from Minnesota to
To OKC to Denver right that’s the main reason why that drives me crazy and and look again there there are certainly bigger problems out there but what whatever is bothering you that certainly could be something you could take to therapy therapy can look different for everyone uh it’s important to things get
Things off your chest every once in a while if you’re thinking of starting therapy give betterhelp a try it’s entirely online designed to be flexible and suited to your schedule visit betterhelp.com lockon NBA to get 10% off your first month that’s betterhelp hp.com lockon NBA all right let’s take a look at the
Timberwolves record or not record their schedule upcoming here in March and of course they’re coming off of this seven game home stand so the first three games of March were part of that home stand but uh famously six of the seven games were either the front or back end of a
Back toback and here we are coming out of it yes there’s two off dayss but Thursday Friday a road back toback at least their close cities Indianapolis and Cleveland um but I don’t know right right into it right six game Road Trip a back to back to kick it off and then
Thankfully the Wolves don’t have another back toback for 10 days which is a road home backto back at Utah coming back down to you know come down in altitude to Minnesota overnight to take on the Denver Nuggets the reigning Champions the following night so yes the Wolves
Had a home heavy schedule post Allstar break I saw some people naturally talking about that being you know potentially a boon to their number one the the odds of them to get the number one seed and yeah it’s great but when you have rest disadvantage ages in I
Think five of the seven games for this last home stand and then you have some of these other crazy upcoming backto backs um that’s uh I don’t know challenging now after that there’s only two more back-to-backs the rest the way for the Wolves one is in April or early
April Houston and Toronto both at home and then a home road back to back Washington and then at Denver so the two times the Wolves will see Denver here moving forward uh or excuse me two of the three the Wolves still have Denver three times but but one is a
Road home backto back the facing Denver at Target Center the other is a road a home road back toback Wizards at home and then at Denver the next night so traveling from Minnesota to Denver at altitude losing an hour uh or I guess not losing an hour gaining an hour but still
Crazy all that to say I I don’t want to let’s just predict March so upcoming the wolves have at Indiana at Cleveland by the way the Pacers pulled out a big win on um on Tuesday night beating the Dallas Mavericks and the Cavs also pulled out a big win beating the Boston
Celtics by a single point so the Wolves next opponents are riding high at the moment I think they’ll probably split those games at Indiana at Cleveland on the back-to-back then they fly all the way to LA to take on the Lakers night off in between they play the Clippers
Then two games at Utah I think they’ll go three and one in that stretch um I don’t know they probably win both games in Utah and split the games in LA but we’ll say they go three and one there um and then home that Denver game
Of the second night of a back toback that’s going to be tough but then Cleveland Golden State Detroit at home I think those are wins at Denver is always a challenge and then the Bulls at home of course Minnesota lost that disaster you know shortly before the allstar
Break at Chicago um so sitting here at one and two right now I think over the course the rest of the month the wolves are going to uh basically split some of those tough road and home games against playoff teams and I think they’ll win most of their games
Against Bad teams um but again the rest disadvantage like if they were playing Denver not in a back-to-back I would certainly pick them to win one if not both of those games um but as it is I have to split the two based on the rest disadvantage and the Indiana Cleveland
Games same deal like I have to split those so I think they come out of this thing a little better than 500 in the month um I’m going to see if I can count up my wins real quick one two three four five six seven eight I have them at eight
And seven if I’m not mistaken eight and seven in in the month of March one two three four five they’ve already lost two yeah so what so I have them at eight and seven in the month of March um I that’s not horrible given the schedule right you’re facing Denver twice in the
Month you’re facing Cleveland twice in the month you’re facing the Clippers twice in the month then you layer in the Lakers and the Kings uh Golden State like it’s not a walk in the park to be sure so if the wolves go 8 and seven in the month of March they’re still going
To be in pretty good shape in the Western Conference they’ll certainly still be a top three seas and I should also point out that just last season the Denver Nuggets who went on to win the championship they won 53 games of the regular season they actually went
Seven and seven in the month of March okay just last year the Denver Nuggets went seven and seven in the month of March that included a four-game losing streak which that losing streak involved here’s the losses the Bulls in Denver at home at the Spurs at home against the Nets and at
Toronto Brooklyn’s the only team in that list that made the playoffs last year and they were bounced in a hurry they lost to all four of them then they beat the Pistons lost to the Knicks so they lost five out of six and of the five losses three of them
Were to non-playoff teams okay so this sort of kind of swoon happens and I know that now Denver’s battle tested everyone like Denver like it’s a different thing well last year it wasn’t until it was right Denver was the team that people were saying well let’s let them prove it
In the playoffs because they’re a regular season team and that’s it I understand that and that’s a a fair not always but it’s generally a fair um I don’t know place to come from right like that that’s that’s a fair discussion point when you’re talking about teams that haven’t done it before
And I understand why people want to say that about the Wolves but last year when the Nuggets lost five out of six in March I guarantee you people the Talking Heads were calling them frauds right and and hopefully the Wolves don’t do that hopefully the Wolves don’t lose five out
Of six we’re still you know Riding High with this the Wolves haven’t Lo lost more than two games in a row at any point this season they’ve only lost two games in a row three times right the first week of January and then the third week of
January when they lost to the Thunder and the Hornets of all teams and then just this weekend Sacramento and La they have never they have not lost more than two games in a row all season and I don’t think that’s going to happen on this in the month of March either I
Really don’t I don’t think there’s any long swoons in there I think it’s just going to be kind of trading wins for losses maybe a three- game four- game winning streak in there somewhere um but I I feel pretty good about where this team sits despite all the weirdness of
The weekend and the Ant stuff on Sunday and and all the above um or I guess it was Monday but uh I feel pretty good about the month of March all right on Thursday show we will preview the matchup against the Pacers we haven’t seen the Pacers in a while so I
Want to talk about that uh it was way back in mid December the turbles beat Indiana by 18 in a game that Carlon towns had 40 and 12 so we’ll talk about that we’ll talk about the matchup what the Pacers have been up to here lately we of course update if anything happens
Related to TJ Warren as well um also the next episode in your audio feed is going to be the Minnesota basketball party recording Wednesday morning Yours Truly will not be part of it this time around but I’m a regular uh member of that panel along with Reggie Wilson of k 11
Um Jack Borman Eder and chief of kupus and Ron Johnson the Ron Johnson show typically hosted by Sam extrom of lockdown Sports Minnesota that will be on YouTube on the lockdown Sports Minnesota Channel we always have the audio here Wednesday afternoon on the lock on wolves feed wherever you listen
To podcast Thursday morning will be this regular Daily Show will be back and of course Thursday Night the live postcast following wolves Pacers so tons of shows in the next call it 24 36 hours here on the lock on wolves feed all right that’s all we have for
You today here on the show a big thank you for making locked wolves your first listen every day of course this show is free and available everywhere that includes YouTube as well as all of your favorite audio platforms wherever you listen to podcast you can find lock on
Wolves you can also watch on the lock on Sports Minnesota app on both Roku and Amazon Fire TV and you can follow on X at lockon te wolves and also at B Beacon with two B’s to E cken a reminder that lockdown has launched the first ever National Sports
247 streaming Channel on YouTube and now it’s also available on Amazon Fire TV and the free Fire TV channels app lockon sports today is here for you 247 covering the top sports stories of the day with the local Experts of lockon plus our national shows covering every League find lockon sports today now
Available on the free Fire TV channels app reminder that the lock on wolves podcast is part of the lockd on podast podcast Network remember the lockon network is your local experts on all the biggest stories once again I’m Ben Beacon this is the lockon Wolves podcast and we’ll catch you next time
The Minnesota Timberwolves are reportedly working toward signing veteran forward TJ Warren to a 10-day contract. Ben Beecken (@bbeecken) breaks down what Warren brings to the table and why the Wolves appear to have opted for him over other options, including Marcus Morris Sr. Plus, a look at some incremental improvements the Wolves’ offense has made over the past several weeks, and a record prediction for the month of March.
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