What’s Evan Mobley’s TRUE CEILING? A study on top 3 picks in comparison to the Cleveland Cavaliers F

What’s Evan Mobley’s TRUE CEILING? A study on top 3 picks in comparison to the Cleveland Cavaliers F

Let’s do this Evan Mo Deep dive yep I don’t know why I was inspired to do this a couple weeks ago I spent way too much time on it and I want to say before we get into anything I want to make this Crystal crystal clear if Evan Mobley

Never gets better than he is today he’s a 10 to 15 year solid good NBA player Evan Moy is not bad Evan Moy is not a bust if he never gets any better than he is today Evan Moy will make a lot a lot a lot of money and have a very success

Ful NBA career so let’s get that on the record now Evan Moy I’m not saying he sucks by any means you guys can make your own determinations on what the findings of this study and case kind of come out to but let me make it clear

Evan Moy is a good NBA player a valuable NBA player and while he may not have made the giant leap in year three that we had hoped he has made improvements to his game across the board and if he never gets better he can retire tomorrow

As a good established NBA player is that a good Baseline to be at yes okay for sure that’s fair make sure we’re clear on that so here’s what I did guys we’ve always talked about is Evan Moy a unicorn Jason you said when they first traded for Donovan Mitchell Donovan’s a

Great player but if this team’s gonna win a championship Evan has to be the best player on the team he was the Unicorn he was the next guy we asked when we first started the show could he be the Cavs Tim Duncan could he be the pillar of a championship franchise a

Championship foundation in the NBA so I went back and you could you could have gone back further I went back to the 2 13 drafts 11 drafts so there’s 33 players in this study I looked at the top three picks in every draft since 2013 and tried to figure out where they

Were after year three to see okay how many guys by year three were established Stars how many guys by year three were complete flameouts how many guys did we not have an answer on yet and of the guys we weren’t sure yet how many have developed into what so I broke this down

Into a bunch of categories we’re going to run through them uh draft by draft and category by category but just to give everyone a refresher here are the top three picks every year dating back to 2013 in 2013 yes Victor Oladipo uto Porter Jr draft by year three Bennett was out of

The league essentially a complete bust olao by year three a lot of question marks Otto Porter Jr by year three uh not living up to a top three draft pick potential 2014 draft Andrew Wiggins Jabari Parker Joel embid 2015 15 draft you had Carl Anthony towns D’Angelo

Russell Jalil okaf for 2016 Ben Simmons Brandon Ingram and Jaylen Brown 2017 you had Marquel Foltz Lonzo ball and Jason Tatum 2018 DeAndre Aon Marvin Bagley Jr and Luca donic 2019 Zion J and RJ Barrett 2020 the covid draft you had Anthony Edwards James wisan and lamelo

Ball 2021 the Moy draft Kate Cunningham and Jaylen green also in the top three of that class 2022 you had Palo banero Chad hren and Jabari Smith junor and this most recent draft you had Victor wanyama Brandon Miller and Scoot Henderson so those are the 33 players

That I’m going to use for this study going back to the 2013 draft I broke these guys into different categories Jason at any point you have any questions let me know I have some answers on some of the guys stats at year three why I put them in different

Categories okay those are the 33 players we are using to put into these different categories top three picks dating back to 2013 so of those 33 I thought they were three that were immediate stars as soon as they touched the court you knew that guy could be the guy we build the

Franchise around and now before I tell you who those are mind you this is all after year three you’re gonna have different opinions on some of these guys as time has unfolded and their stories have been written but this is as of year three or in Victor W Bama’s case as of

Six months into his NBA career the three guys I thought immediate stars as soon as they stepped in the court were wemy Zion and Luca Luca was averaging 257 and seven as a rookie wem’s doing things we’ve never seen before and Zion despite getting hurt his rookie season was

Averaging 237 and4 and looked every part of the player he was advertised to be coming out of Duke do you have any issue with that Jason no okay so now we go to by year three those guys stepped in immediate immediate Stars these are guys by year three so at the inclusion of

Their third season we knew that’s a dude that is a legitimate a legitimate guy and I got nine of these guys and beid who didn’t play his first two seasons made all NBA second team in his rookie year which was year three Ben Simmons who’s fallen off a cliff now but at the

End of the year three had made an all-nba team an all defensive team and two All-Star games Carl Anthony towns was a 24o scorer Jason Tatum John Morant was averaging 28 and seven at the conclusion of his thir third season Anthony Edwards lamelo ball you may say

He’s not a star I tend to agree but at least you know you have something there poo banero is already an All-Star in his second year and if you want to say CAD hen’s too high sure but he’s fallen into the big three in OKC overcoming a lot of

Guys who had more established there and if you watch how they run their offense uh I think his sealing and potential is through the roof if you want to say hen’s a little too high probably won’t argue with him maybe I’m a little too high in hren but those are the guys by

Year three and in vaner and hrm’s instance year two who I think could already be in that star category lamelo I’m not buying it a stock at him and building a franchise around him but he’s certainly not just a guy Fair yeah if hom GM’s too high he’s not GNA be next

Year if he keeps progressing at this he’s certainly on that path so I won’t I won’t dispute anyone on that list either I think you’re in good shape okay so now we get to the next group and there’s a lot of names in this list I labeled this

Good player by year three three but is this it Andrew Wiggins Jabari Parker Victor Oladipo Brandon Ingram Jaylen Brown Jaylen green Evan Mobley Jabari Smith Jr Kade Cunningham RJ Barrett lzo Lonzo ball and Brandon Miller 11 guys and here’s how I think those guys who we had question marks after year three have

Developed since then so this is using a little hindsight after year three those guys I don’t think can make a definitive decision if they’re great if they’re bad we know they’re good but what’s their ceiling well of those guys here are the guys I think turned into legitimate tier

One top 10 in the NBA guys Jason that’s it nobody doesn’t exist so no one who we had questions after year three in my opinion have developed into a guy that you could build a franchise around you may disagree we’ll keep going through these but I don’t think any of

The guys that we weren’t sure about after three years has turned into the guy that we felt confident in the next one good players very good players but not a number one you had Jaylen Brown who’s obviously the highest paid player in basketball now a multiple time

Allstar but at best he’s a third Team all NBA guy you can’t build a team around Jaylen Brown he’s a great two same thing with Brandon Ingram good player you want Brandon Ingram but I don’t think he could be the centerpiece of your team and if you want to say

Victor Oladipo wasn’t ever very good he made a second I made an all-nba team he had that one great year after a couple changes he doesn’t really fit into any other categories he’s falling off a short Shooting Star level stint Jason but those are the only three guys who I

Think legitimately turned into a real building block out of that group I think Brown I I’m higher on Brown than you are I think okay I wonder if you got him away from Tatum if he would be more of a clear number one I I

I I don’t know I I can’t quibble too much with where you’re at I really like what you’ve done with this with this whole study uh but I I think Brown could be that guy I go back to like when James Harden was an okay did did and maybe the

Answer is yes and I’m misremembering but did you did did we really think Harden would Bloom into an MVP player no they would have trade if they did they wouldn’t have trade him if they did right but while they their owner was cheap and didn’t want to pay the luxury

Tax they were forced to trade him but he he was around guys that took up so much oxygen I think I think Jaylen Brown on his own team uh maybe is more of a one but we’re splitting hairs ha okay next up so these were solid guys but never

Turn into Stars Wiggins actually averaged 24 points a game after his third season but it was on a terrible Minnesota team just felt like empty stats Jabar Parker got hurt DeAndre Aton RJ Barrett Lonzo ball are any of those guys significantly better now than we thought they were at year three if

Anything aton’s gone down Barrett just got traded Lonzo ball can’t stay healthy uh guys who were solid players Wiggins had that stretch for Golden State to help them win a title but obviously not Star level players yeah I think Wiggins career was helped by going to Golden

State quite a bit uh but that’s that’s fair they were what they were frankly those were all Underachievers compared to what we thought they were going to be next is kind of The Underachievers they were decent players but that’s really it Otto Porter Jr D’Angelo Russell Marquel

Folz Marvin Bagley Jr guys who eh we have them fine but you’re not really winning anything with those four and then you have the bus by year three Anthony Bennett Jil okaf for James wisman scoot Henderson’s been terrible this season but it’s way too early to call him a bus

He just doesn’t fit anywhere yeah anywhere else so that leaves guys like Jaylen Brown and Evan Mo not Jaylen Brown uh Jaylen green and Evan Moy and Kate Cunningham and Jabari Smith and Brandon Miller they Fallen to the guys it’s too early to tell category but when I look at this big

List here Jason you look at all those guys especially the 11 guys who weren’t Stars by year three we’re good but not Stars it doesn’t mean EV Mooby can’t turn into a star it doesn’t mean he develops at his own pace and by year five six can be that guy but there’s not

A long track record in the last decade plus of the NBA of guys taking that significant leap after year three if they hadn’t done it already and I say that just to say we may have to change the context in which we look at Evan Moy

Where instead of being the guy he’s one of the guys and I I can’t argue that I mean you have a ton of data there to back that up the reason why I think Evan might be the exception is because the only Club missing out of his bag is the

Three-point shot and we talked about this on the show yesterday it now it’s like missing the driver it’s like not being able to hit driver off the te in today’s NBA it’s a big club that you’re missing but we’ve seen signs this year of of it coming and the the shot he hit

Against Philly the other night is a prime example huge huge no hesitation has the awareness step back to the Baseline step back behind the line shoot shoot catch and shoot Splash that’s what you need if if if he develops that he is now elevated to the to the other categories that we’re

Talking about so he’s already there I I think he’s already Elite in other areas it’s that one that’s missing but we’ve seen signs this year particularly second half of the season of it coming and so that’s why I think he might Buck the trend to what you’ve laid out but

There’s no denying the evidence that you’ve laid out for the most part what you are by year three over the last decade is probably who you’re going to be for better or worse but I do think there’s a chance that he bucks the trend on that and there are guys like Jaylen

Brown by year three was averaging 14 points per game he finished his year three season averaging 14 points per game he’s now a 25 Point per game score in the NBA that’s not to say you can’t get better right I think we all expect Evan Mobley to continue to develop and

Get better just like he had from his rookie season to his sophomore season his sophomore season to this season we hope he takes that next giant Step at some point because adding that three-point shot will unlock all the rest of his offense he has the physical tools his fluidness offensively and his

Decision making Jason is what impressed me most I just think looking back at the last 10 years and I always say this and I made the joke on Monday is he a unicorn or he’s just a really good race horse without a horn because I think he

Might be a really good race Horse Without a horn especially if he can’t develop that three-point shot where he’s a guy you want on your team you could be a very good NBA team if Evan moble is one of your top couple players but the

Idea that he could be the best player on a championship team we may just have to adjust that expectation and guess what there’s like 10 guys in the NBA each year that are capable of being the best guy on a championship team it’s a very very small and 10 might be saying that

May be way too big of a pool Jason it really may be five or six and that might even be casting too big of a net so I don’t say that as a necessarily a giant knock on Evan Moy I just think those guys are so few and far between they’re

So hard to come by and the ones who are like wemi for example it doesn’t really take them time to figure out their spot and I’ve said this before I’ll say it again when you play basketball the ball finds the best players it does and that’s my one big

Knock on moob and you could blame the guards he’s a big so he needs to be fed the ball he’s not bringing up the court you kind of know who needs the ball and when they need it and it never never feels like the Cavs make a conscious

Effort to feed Evan Moy in the offense maybe there’s numbers that disagree with that I’m just telling you what my it test seas and from watching and playing enough basketball what my brain is telling me they never feature Evan and that may be an underlying message to

This guy’s a good offensive player he’s not a great offensive player our great offensive players need more touches so I just think looking at the big picture Evan’s a good player a guy you definitely want on your team but I think we may have to start re evaluating our

Big picture outlook on what his true ceiling is is it Skyhigh like Pluto or is he in that really good All-Star level range but that ceiling is more Jupiter and sad yeah I I do think that they need to make a more I’ve said this for almost

Two years now I wish that they’d make a more concerted effort to to get him involved in the offense early yeah and that’s exactly it when Kevin was playing with Kyrie and LeBron he got the first touch every night elbow touch everybody knew it was coming it didn’t matter that

Doesn’t matter you’re not trying to surprise anyone you’re trying to let him catch a rhythm early yeah and you you win the tip whatever rebound come to the other end you know first play of the game it’s Evan wherever he wants it wherever he’s comfortable he want whatever he wants whatever call himself

Wherever he wants it get him involved early Donovan and and Darius usually are are they’re going to get theirs they can get theirs anytime they want get your big man activated early and and in you you make a valid point that the the the most talented guys find they the ball

Finds them but you know the point I made early is is the Cav sort of flipped this their biggest piece that we thought was their biggest piece in Evan came last prior to the Donovan trade yeah when usually that piece comes first like Zion like wemy you know that’s the first

Piece Kade Cunningham and Detroit although point guards that’s a whole different conver conversation so that guy comes first you build around that guy but then by the time you got everything else built around him his contract’s running out he’s coming in extension years and you’ve got like a

Two or threee window where you can really contend with that guy and then he’s gonna Force his way out and go to a different Market or whatever where the Cavs dropped their most valuable piece in last then made the Donovan trade so the growth and development of Evan

Mobley was never at the Forefront of this whole thing it was we gota win we I gotta push back on that for one sec just look at Che hren though yeah yeah you’re right and it’s it’s not even a knock on Mob it’s just the best guys the guys who

Are truly truly truly special and unique they find a way and and Jet hren is on a better team than Cleveland in his rookie season by the way because he didn’t play all of last year now he was in the system and he’s their third leading scorer Jaylen Williams their second

Leading scorer was a lottery pick last season who’s jumped like seven other guys in rotation he should wi in my opinion most improved player the guys who are special find a way yeah you’re right take all the those circumstances is out that basketball is a sport where age doesn’t matter that’s why guys

LeBron was able to dominate The League at 18 19 years old playing against 30y olds age it helps but if you’re special it doesn’t matter no one’s saying that Mo’s LeBron or of that caliber but the special guys prove their special right away and you look at the trends and once

Again these could all be broken I’m not saying Mooby can never get there I’m just saying maybe I the percentage I thought he could is a little lower than it was because he hasn’t taken that step yet and if he was as good as a wemi or like if wemi was in

MO spot they’d be getting wemi the ball or home or Palo banero like let obviously he wasn’t available for draft but you don’t think the Cavs would adjust their off like it it it is what it is in basketball happens in pickup too a guy comes off the bench you need

An extra guy oh damn he’s a great shooter guess who’s getting the ball that next pickup game a great shooter so it is what is

When the Cleveland Cavaliers drafted Evan Mobley 3rd overall in 2021, the team thought it was getting a unicorn.

Through almost three seasons, Mobley has proven he’s a quality NBA player, but he hasn’t shown the superstar potential many thought he had.

We did a deep dive study into top 3 picks over the last decade to see how many blossomed into stars by year three, how many were straight up busts, and how many still hadn’t fully developed yet. Of the ones who hadn’t developed, how many then turned into stars down the road?

This won’t give us a definitive answer on Mobley’s ceiling, but it should give us some historical context on the likelihood he still reaches his full potential.

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