[Source.](https://x.com/jacefrederick/status/1790124015241064695?s=46&t=FfflqO8nBW1gTkmtWAIKjg)
I keep seeing this narrative that the Nuggets have just been hitting ungodly shots over great contested defensive as the reason they’re shooting so well. And it would be a discredit to Jokic, Murray, and Gordon to say they aren’t hitting ANY tough shots at all.
But it looks like right now the Nuggets have completely figured out how to pick apart the current defensive coverage.
They’re just spreading this defense to its absolute limit on the perimeter, getting a mismatch through whoever guards Gordon when he brings the ball up (or Murray just sprinting up the court and beating NAW/Jaden), and then attacking the open space and either swinging the ball for an open look, or letting Murray and Jokic go to work with Jokic on a shallow roll, getting Gobert to commit way further out than he’s comfortable with.
They’re getting easy looks by forcing hard rotations (which the Timberwolves defense is over-aggressively jumping on) and then just passing it once or twice and suddenly there’s a wide open shooter on the perimeter or someone wide open in the dunker spot.
People are looking at the box score team shooting splits and just assume that the Nuggets are draining a ton of contested shots. And they have definitely hit some tough shots over good defense, but more than that, they’re just getting a lot of extremely easy looks. The reason guys like Braun, Holiday, and Gordon are lights out right now is because they’re basically just taking practice shots on the edge with nobody giving a quality contest.
Some massive structural changes to the defensive scheme have to be coming tomorrow and Thursday night, or I don’t see how how they win another one.
by EsotericPotato
5 Comments
That number doesn’t seem that absurd when you consider the gameplan is to intentionally leave Gordon open. Sometimes Lu Dort goes 0-9 sometimes Grant Williams hits seven 3s.
I understand the calls for adjustments, but it’s sound reasoning to make Gordon be the one to beat them. You over correct and play Gordon more straight up I think Jokic and the Nuggets still pick that apart while the Wolves are chasing their tails.
[Gordon’s shooting numbers by zone regular season v. the playoffs](https://imgur.com/a/DD6BexL)
If Gordon’s shooting doesn’t regress to his averages then it’s just not the Wolves’ series to win and you probably can set your watch to him shooting 15% on jumpers against OKC or Dallas.
Think sometimes the get lost how far they are off there man . Joker backing down gobert two players help and only one should have or none even . Towns might be part of the problem missing all that time and him not being totally where he should be . But I have seen Jaden in no mans land and his man was wide open for a 3 . Not to be giving Minnesota excuses but Denver had 4 days to work on what we were doing and adjust . What we had one day to counter what they did !! Now again one day !! Heard finch talk about them being more physical on screens . I mean I have seen it as the screener not just screen but push or hold the player getting screened and the refs pretty much aren’t calling it .
I haven’t crunched the numbers re: where those open or wide open looks are going, but the reason people are citing unsustainable shooting is how the players most likely to be taking those shots are shooting relative to their usual averages.
Like, yes, Gordon, Braun, and Holiday are getting open/wide open 3s. But those are the only looks they get in the regular season too. And on those looks in the regular season they were at 29%, 37%, and 40% shooting. Against the Wolves? 67%, 80%, and 63%.
Those three players are a combined 22 of 33 in this series, or a clean 67% from deep. That’s simply unsustainable over a long period of time, even for elite shooters (but it most certainly could hold for another few games).
Denver’s elite at forcing you into tough defensive choices, especially with the way they’ve got the 2-man game working right now. It’s nearly impossible to truly stop them, so many team, the Wolves included, choose to sag off of the less dangerous shooters and cross their fingers they don’t get a bad bounce with luck.
That’s not to say it’s the ONLY reason the Wolves are giving up points. Denver’s figuring things out offensively with Jokic/Murray/Gordon. The Wolves have had some bad defensive breakdowns that reflect more on poor choices by the Wolves than bad luck.
But I think it’s important to note that there most certainly IS luck folded into the offensive explosion by Denver in games 3 and 4.
Reminds me of the Nick Foles game. Our game plan was to make him beat us deep, because he was historically bad at that, except for that game he was on fire.
I totally agree. Enough with this playing zone, cute bullshit. We caught them by surprise with it in games 1 and 2. I truly believe we are more talented than them top to bottom, so why not just play them straight up? If Murray and Jokic are going to cook on the pick n roll, just let them have it, we can’t let Holiday, Braun and AG kill us, those guys must be defended. In particular Holiday has just killed us with really timely 3s. That needs to stop like immediately.