The draft this year is so wide open that I think there are a lot of potential scenarios that may play out tomorrow– and I'm guessing what everyone else perceives as ideal is going to vary wildly. For me, my ideal scenario would be Devin Carter at 10 and Johnny Furphy at 17 (if we can trade up to the Lakers pick).
Carter's defense could slot in so well next to Keyonte or Brice or Sexton — He would make us much more flexible with our rotations. On top of it I love how good of a rebounder he is. Hollinger at the Athletic describes it like this:
Carter has been a “little things” guy his whole career: a hard-playing, crafty player with a preposterous 23 percent defensive rebound rate as a 6-3 guard. He led the Big East in this category – Donovan Clingan plays in his conference
For Furphy, it boils down to the fact that we really need a true 3 and he comes out on top of every statistical model that I have seen. Pelton has him ranked 5th in his model. Hollinger has him 11th. They both point to his age, his athleticism, high rebound rate (11.7%), and high volume 3 pt shooting on pretty good percentages. I feel like just watching the tape, Salaun and Cody Williams pop on screen a little more than Furphy — but there is probably something behind Furphy netting out on top of all of these models and I would feel comfortable betting on that given this hard to predict draft class.
Here is Hollinger's summary:
This is higher than a lot of people have him, but I’m a big fan of what Furphy offers. He has positional size for a combo forward and the mobility to check smaller players on the perimeter, but he also grades out as a plus shooter who can supply some extra athletic pop as a finisher on cuts and in transition.
Furphy is skinny and needs to fill out, but his statistical production was a bit better than that of similar physical archetypes Zaccharie Risacher and Cody Williams (both below) despite coming over from Australia to play for Kansas. While Furphy didn’t shoot often and wasn’t asked to do much off the dribble, he shot 64.2 percent on 2s with a high free-throw rate. From the perimeter, his stats were more ordinary (35.2 percent from 3, 76.5 percent from the line), but he shoots 3s with relatively high volume, and both his shooting form and incoming rep suggest he is capable of better.
Defensively, Furphy had some trouble with quick guards, and physicality sometimes gave him trouble when players could shrug him off with a shoulder to get room for a shot. That should lessen as his body fills out, but he’s always going to be light for this size. That said, he had the length and quick hops to get back into plays to contest or block shots, even when initially beaten. His 11.7 percent rebound rate is pretty impressive for a guy who projects as a three at the next level.
Curious what everyone else thinks and what you are hoping to see tomorrow!
(also here is the link to Hollinger's full article if you are interested: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5578790/2024/06/25/nba-draft-prospects-hollinger-2024/ )
by bonferronipizza
14 Comments
In 2018 after the draft I was reading a bunch of draft grades from different sites. That’s the year we took Grayson Allen. Then for the hell of it, I looked up draft grades from the same people in 2017. We got generally terrible grades for taking Mitchell. One guy had us with the only F of the entire first round.
It’s just a crapshoot even for people who’ve been playing much more attention than any of us. We’re not going to begin to know anything until summer league at the earliest. I don’t know how to judge between all these players with major flaws who need to develop skills they don’t have yet if they are going to turn into anything in the NBA. There’s really no way except to wait and see.
Cody Williams falls to 10. Utah trades up for Bub Carrington (or Zach Edey because I so badly want to see him be successful). Utah trades one of the vets (Clarkson) for expiring contracts and future picks, even if it’s a few seconds. What I’m expecting is to be wrong on everything. I have no idea what Ainge and Zanik are up to.
Draft Carter with the first pick and use 29 and 32 to trade up and get Scheierman
Ideally we draft an MVP caliber player and another All-NBAer who think Salt Lake City is the coolest place on earth and never want to leave.
Dream 10th pick: Castle
Realistic 10th picks: Williams, Holland, Knecht, Dilly, Salaun, Carter. I’d be happy with any of these.
Edey, Furphy, and Dunn are my ideal choices if we decide to trade up from 29/32.
Somehow find a way to get Reed Sheppard or Stephon Castle.
Ideal Draft is
10: Cody Williams or Tidjane Salaun
27/32: Either individually or by packaging to move up, I want some combination of Furphy, Dadiet, Dunn, or Misi
Jazz trade up and get any two of Risacher, Salaun, Topic, Williams, or Carter
Holland, Scheierman, Harrison Ingram
We shouldn’t draft for fit
Of those projected to be available at 10 I’m happy with Williams, Holland, Salaun or Knecht. I’d be fine but underwhelmed with Carter. Would be disappointed with Edey or Topic
The end of draft season and the ten thousand useless projection articles
Devin Carter, DaRon Holmes and Pacome Dadiet if we keep all of our picks.
If the Jazz trade up, trade all three picks to get Reed Sheppard.
If they keep 10 and trade up for 29 and 31, Carter and Edey would be a home run.
One of Salaun/Williams/Carter in that order at 10. Some combination of Dadiet/Smith/Dunn/George at 29+32 OR trade up to 17 for Carrington/Collier/Edey.