TL;DR there are much worse teams than us next year, we likely have a 20-30% chance of drafting in the top 7. Historically, there is little difference in draft outcomes for picks 8-10 than there are from guys available in 11-20 range. Because of how good we are already (relative to the other awful teams), we should be trying to build a winning culture now and creating a roster that actually makes sense to improve the development of our core young talent ((e.g. if Wemby and Devin play for years with cramped spacing and non-shooters to kick out to when they get doubled/tripled, this stunts their off-the-dribble development while also building long-term bad habits of not trusting teammates and forcing up bad shots).
Wemby is borderline All-NBA good already and Devin is already a much better #2 option than most all bad teams have. Our team really started to finally click and mesh after the ASB. In the 27 games played post-ASB only 3 had obvious tanking happening (all of the last 4 excluding the Denver game) — if we exclude those 3 games, we had a -2.4 pt margin across the remaining 24 games, which is right around where Atlanta finished this year, putting our team as a mid-30s win squad or 20th place.
Also, that's not factoring in improvements. Every player on our roster should be better next year than they were this year (besides CP3) b/c of how young everyone is.
Unless a significant injury to Wemby or Trae occurs, I don't see how SAS or ATL finish in the bottom 5-7 (tankathon.com for example has SAS projected at 9 and ATL at 10).
5 teams both SAS and ATL will 100% be better than: Brooklyn, Washington, Detroit, Portland, and Utah.
2 teams both SAS and ATL will likely be better than: Toronto and Chicago.
2 teams around our level we probably should be better than:
Charlotte (they probably belong in one of the above tiers.. Miller will likely take a leap but they may not even get Bridges back, Mark Williams won't be a major difference maker, LaMelo has now played < 40 games in B2B years and their French rookie is the definition of a "blank canvas" project)
and LA Clippers as well (Kawhi will miss 20-40 games…just a large range of outcomes for them if misses 20 vs 40 games and anything in between…now their 2nd best player they'll lean on in Kawhi's absence is Zubac? Norm Powell? Washed Russ?).
Also, every year one or more stars get a significant long-term injury. Mostly older guys, but there is a good chance one current playoff team tumbles out and tanks b/c of this (e.g. MEM last year, DAL + CHA 2 years ago, POR + LAL 3 years ago). It could be because they're old (LeBron, Steph, and Jimmy) or already have availability history issues (Ja, AD and Hali) or b/c they're so dependent on that one guy to be good (Giannis, Luka, and Jokic).
Most folks on here are saying we shouldn't be trying to upgrade our roster or bring in dudes that would clearly fit a need for us now if it costs us any kind of asset (e.g. Cam Johnson for Keldon + 2-3 seconds or something to upgrade the Champagnie 3&D starting spot) because we shouldn't try to improve the team until after the 2025 draft. I just wanted to point out that neither us nor ATL have a good chance of getting a top 7 pick in the 2025 draft so why not try to push for a play-in spot to energize our young core and build a winning culture instead of positioning us for the 8-10th pick? You rarely see the guys in the 8-10 range perform meaningfully better than guys that are available in the 11-20 range. Some recent examples:
2021 8-10: Franz, Davion Mitchell and Ziaire Williams
2021 11-20 3 best: Sengun, Trey Murphy III, and Jalen Johnson
2022 8-10: Dyson Daniels, Sochan, and Johnny Davis
2022 11-20 3 best: Jalen Williams, Tari Eason and Jalen Durren
2023 8-10: Jarace Walker, Taylor Hendricks, and Cason Wallace
2023 11-20 3 best: Dereck Lively II, Podz, and Jaime Jaquez Jr (there were a lot of good options)
These are the odds of picking at your spot or worse for teams that fall between 6th and 10th worst records:
6 has 63% chance of picking 6 or later (>50% chance of pick 7 or later).
7 has 68% chance of picking 7 or later (48% chance of pick 8 or later).
8 has 74% chance of picking 8 or later.
9 has 80% chance of picking 9 or later.
10 has 86% chance of picking 10 or later.
So 2:1 odds (more likely 3:1 odds) or worse that we pick better than where we finish in the standings next year.
by NihilisticTaters
14 Comments
Maybe let them play a few games before we start predicting win totals.
Someone has a gambling addiction.
You do realize bringing in Chris Paul is setting a winning culture right? He’s here to organize the offense for our young guys and teach them how to do it for themselves. Like a coach that’s on the court with you cause Pop can’t do that
And the main benefit to building slowly isn’t just to tank for a high draft pick but to let our young core develop with on ball reps. The main example was point Sochan which was quite ugly but you can already see his handle and decision making has improved a lot from it. Same with Vassell and Wemby from getting lots of on ball reps and Castle will benefit as well
Now it’s up to the ATL pick.
We won’t be in the lottery with the CP3 addition.
46-48 wins minimum, we’re back in the playoffs.
except I would venture to say there may be 9-10 top tier guys next year….. That’s how STACKED the draft is. I don’t think people realize how good the class is, and the season hasn’t even started. All it takes is a trae injury or chris paul injury for us to have a top 10 pick. The difference between that and the next tier already looks substantial. You guys have got it understand it will have only been TWO WEMBY SEASONS. Like holy shit man the people talking about “losing culture” and “asking out” need to legitimately use more than 20% of their brains and understand Wemby has almost certainly been briefed of PATFO’s idea of the future and not rushing things so they can build sustained greatness.
Yes but the draft looks gooooood. Also, didn’t OKC tank with CP3 and Shai ?
I’d also consider the possibility of KD getting pissy and demanding a trade
Spurs need to find a way to suck so they don’t end up like the mavericks for the last 5 years. Perennial 1st round exists cuz they can’t build a core cuz Luka was too good too quickly
Personally I don’t want to tank. I think making the play in would be best for Wemby. All we need is for Atlanta to miss the playoffs and we have a chance. They won the lotto this year. Maybe they get top 4 next year and we get traore or we use our several picks to move up. We have 4 potential firsts that could be top 20
I’m down to trade and package some of the picks for a star or hell, during the draft trade up ours and the Hawks pick for a better pick. I’ll never be against our team trying to win.
Worst case scenario, the Hornets and Bulls picks don’t convey, we end up with the 7th-9th and 11th-14th picks of the draft with an improved record.
Oh well, our team still has plenty of holes and desperately needs more talent and bench depth. I won’t be mad at us seeing our guys win more games.
The direction they take this season really depends on how confident they are in their ability to build around Wemby. Another factor is how patient they think he’ll be.
While I kind of agree, I have a couple counters:
1) I don’t think it’s guaranteed we’re better than Portland. Ayton/Grant/Sharpe/Brogdon/Scoot with Clingan and Simons. Wembanyama is definitely better than all their guys, but Ayton/Grant/Brogdon/Simons are probably better than Vassell, and definitely better than anyone (other than CP3).
2) I don’t think it’s guaranteed we’re better than Utah. It depends on Markkannen.
3) The Clippers will most likely be better than us. Harden has huge problems, but he’s good in the regular season and they are filled with vets. They will be competent and motivated with new arena opening.
4) CP3. I’m excited, I think he’ll be great for us. There is a real chance he is washed. His elbow jumper was very guardable last year and teams are comfortable attacking him on defense.
5) We could easily be the injured team. Vassell, Sochan, and CP3 all have real injury histories. The only thing that can derail Wemby is an injury as well.
6) We are probably planning on giving heavy minutes to Castle and Sochan. Sochan has been one of the worst players in the NBA the last two years. Rookies usually don’t contribute to winning. I expect Castle to be good, but he’ll likely be bad with some good flashes. Its hard to win when tons of minutes are going to two negative guys.
I think we’re too good to really tank. 40 wins would be a mild surprise. I could also see us shutting Vassell down again in late February, resting Wemby to drop winnable games late and end up 28-54. Draft 5-6 and aim for playoffs next year.
Tanking has been overrated for a while now. The median outcome for having the worst record in the league…is a solid starter. Getting the worst record in the league doesn’t even make you likelier than not to get an all star.
Specifically, the median return for the best odds is the 4th pick, and the difference between the 4th pick and the 10th pick isn’t big enough to throw away a season unless you’re bad enough that you have literally nothing else going for ya. We do. We’re good. We’re not gonna tank.
Jokes on you, when the Spurs hit 12 games left they’re letting the entire sub here play those games. 0-12 to end the year AND no actual player gets hurt.