This is Getting Out of Control

This is Getting Out of Control

when the NBA implemented restrictive free agency over two decades ago the idea behind it was to ensure that teams no matter the market you were in had the upper hand in retaining their drafted players rather than simply losing them to the highest bidder on the open market a prime example of this was Shaq leaving the Orlando Magic to join the LA Lakers after his rookie contract had expired and he became an unrestricted free agent but as a restricted free agent while the player has the ability to go out and receive offers from teams around the league their incumbent team now has the ability to match any offer to retain their player a recent example this was when the Indiana Pacers signed DeAndre a to a rookie max deal as a restricted free agent and the Phoenix Suns would go on to match set offered to keep DeAndre aen even though they would trade him just one year later restrictive free agency gives teams the advantage in not only being able to retain their drafted player or traded player if they acquire them via trade during their rookie scale deal but also in giving them the ability to offer more money than any other team and giving them the ability to offer them an early extension to their rookie scale contract after their third year in the NBA and this rule has actually worked out well for a lot of teams and for the league in general as it relates to building teams organically and giving small Market teams the opportunity to retain franchise level players that said though given the new changes to the CBA the increases to The League salary cap which is projected to go up 10% every year for the next few years with the new NBA TV deal we’ve started seeing some teams hand out massive contract extensions rookie Max contract extension itions like hot kicks as if they’ll do everything they can to avoid their drafted player from leaving or even getting to restricted free agency by locking them in early and retaining them for the foreseeable future now for some of the early rookie contract extensions I don’t have a problem with a player like Luca donic was most certainly getting a rookie Max extension when it was clear in just his first couple of Seasons he was a generational Talent same goes for a guy like Anthony Edwards SGA obviously Victor wanyama will get an early rookie Max extension when he’s eligible same with Pao bonero but more recently we’ve seen teams at times being a little too quick to hand out early extensions to their rookie contracts and in a lot of cases Max extensions to players who still have a lot to prove and while we know contracts around the league are going to look more and more insane as time goes on what was once a Max contract just 15 years ago would now be near the mid-level exception in today’s NBA dollars but some of the recent deals we’ve seen have been giving me a little bit of pause and it makes you wonder just how much some of these teams who are handing out these fat deals will be regretting it down the line why you might ask well let’s talk about it as always if you’re new to the channel you like this type of content then be sure to subscribe to help the channel grow and in return I’ll be providing more NBA content like this now back when I started the channel at the beginning of the 2223 season one of my first videos I discussed was what I believed will be the five most regrettable contracts from the 2022 off season and two of them specifically were early rookie contract extensions for players from the 2019 draft class one being Jordan P who the warrior signed to a 4year $140 million contract extension coming off their championship in 2022 and the other being Tyler hero who the heat extended for 4 years $120 million neither of these of course were Max contract extensions but large contracts for players that were extension eligible but didn’t have to be extended that offseason and while it’s still relatively early in assessing the value of those deals You could argue in hindsight both of those teams probably wish they would have waited one more year for each of those players to hit restrictive free agency to let the market determine their worth but also just giving it one more year to ensure they were really worth set extensions Tyler hero while a solid player a great shooter and a great second and third offensive options for the heat hasn’t always been available and his inconsistent efficiency on offense as well as being a liability on defense makes his contract a little harder to swallow if you’re the Heat and also has made it more challenging to move in trade Jordan P though whose contract already looked terrible in just that first year after extending him before the new contract even kicked in the Warriors already moved him in a trade and had to Fork over a first round pick and take on an aging Chris Paul just to get off that deal and of course even just two years after the extension pretty much everyone would agree that PO was not worth that contract you go back further and look at some of the early rookie contract extensions in recent history and yes I’m continuing to look at early rookie contract extensions extensions that were given out after a player’s third year in the league extending them before the hit restrictive free agency and there’s a reason for that which I’ll get to in a bit but in recent years you saw a rookie Max extension for Andrew Wiggins at 5 years $148 million back in 2017 Victor Oladipo 4 years $84 million Michael kid Gilchrist in 2015 at 4 years 52 million John Henson four years 45.5 million contracts that were handed out early that already looked like overpays within the first two years now of course there haven’t been all bad early rookie contract extensions guys like Devin Booker Carl Anthony Town signed early Max extensions in 2018 when it was clear they were franchise level players even by just their third season in the NBA as I mentioned before Luca donic getting early extension in 2021 same with sgaa Jason Tatum early contract extension that made sense the same goes for Donovan Mitchell and maybe I’m a bit old school in this thinking and maybe I’m a bit too conservative when it comes to assessing a player’s Talent their development and progression but unless you have a clear generational Talent a superstar in the making or even just a guy you know is going to likely be a perennial All-Star in this league handing over a massive deal after just 3 years in the NBA is such a big risk and we even have the history to show why that has been a risk with all of the regrettable contracts that were given out hastily in years past because of all that I am always of the opinion it is always better to wait to give it one more year wait until the summer of their restrictive free agency before handing a Max contract extension if there are still question marks about said player and so I’m going to shift now to the players who just recently received rookie Max extensions for the players from the 2021 draft class at least at the time of this recording anyway and that’s Scotty Barnes Kate Cunningham and France Vagner who all signed roughly equivalent deals of 5 Years Around $225 million with bonus incentives up to $270 million now I made a video reacting to Scotty Barnes signing his max extension when it was first announced citing that I get why the Raptors did it it was expected it was not a surprise but it didn’t take away from the fact that I still thought it was an overpay and something I personally believe the Raptors should have held out for an additional year to ensure that he’s that guy they really want to build around as the future face of that franchise and someone in the comments on that video had mentioned well if you don’t believe Barnes is deserving of a Max contract then no one from the 2021 draft class should be deserving of one and yes that’s true I don’t there are a lot of great players from the 2021 Class A lot of guys I am super high on but none of them at least three years into the league has screamed future Superstar future franchise player sign unto a Max contract extension as early as you possibly can I can maybe be talked into giving one to Kate Cunningham just because he was projected to be a generational type talent coming in into the league and if he can get healthy I can see him being a top player in the NBA when he gets to his prime but even for Kade I mean you have to be concerned about his injury history to offer him that kind of money when he’s only played more or less two seasons given he’s missed most of a sophomore year and Kade while his shooting has improved he’s still got to work on that jumper as well as taking care of the ball and limiting his turnovers and then for France Vagner you know I know I get a lot of flack from Magic fans who think that he’s a superstar in the making which I do not believe but so far this has got to be the worst early rookie contract Max extension of the offseason fron Vagner is a fine player the magic absolutely found a gem in landing him with the number eight pick and there’s no question they should do whatever they can to keep him and build around him as part of their young court but a Max contract again I know you have to look at it from the market standpoint and if Barnes is getting a max deal Kate is getting one as well and fron is probably looking at those guys and saying hey I’m on the same level or tier as them I should be getting the max as well but as I’ve said before just because they are eligible does doesn’t mean you have to give them a Max especially when you have control of their contract next offseason as a restrictive free agent if I’m the magic and I said this about the Raptors and Barnes as well I get that you’re a small Market team and aren’t really a free agency destination so you don’t really have the luxury of playing hard ball when you hit on a draft pick and you do whatever you can to lock them down I get there is value to signing them early because you could potentially have to pay them more The Following Season even though it’s pretty minimal what that increase would be The Following Season relative to the overall size of the contract but with a player like fron Vagner who improved a lot of aspects of his game but regressed substantially from a shooting perspective and shot 28% from Deep this past season why not wait until next offseason to get another Year’s worth of play and data to justify that he’s worth that kind of money another year of development a year to bounce back and show that that down shooting season was really just an outlier and that you feel comfortable in giving him a Max contract yeah it might now be 5 years $240 million but that additional $15 million is worth the risk than signing a player prematurely that isn’t a Max Level player and I know some will say well if you don’t extend him now you might lose him in free agency for nothing well that’s the beauty of restrictive free agency you can one offer your player more than any other team and do it early before free agency actually begins and other teams are able to start making offers or you can match any offer sheet they get and you keep them and I know I’m kind of singling out the magic here but by extending fronds earlier than you had to you now run the risk of this being a regrettable contract down the line under the new CBA assuming you’re also giving a Max contract extension to Palo bonera who in my opinion is worth an early max deal and you could find yourself in a situation where you have limited cap flexibility because of the new tax apron constraints and potentially a contract that is hard to move down the road for a guy on a Max contract who isn’t an All-Star Max contracts aren’t what they used to be under this new CBA a max deal can quickly turn into a negative asset with teams wary of the penalties imposed on being a second apron team and that doesn’t just apply to Vagner and the magic this also can be said for the other two rookie max deals that we saw this offseason the same for the max extensions we saw for lamelo ball Desmond Bane Tyrese halber Anthony Edwards I would not be worried about because he’s already proven to be a Bonafide superstar in the league but for the rest of those guys time will tell and look I know I’m going to be the minority on this take and that’s fine I just think deeming a player a Max Level player and paying them upwards of $200 million after just three seasons in the NBA carries way too much risk especially under the new CBA unless it’s a clear Superstar talent and that it’s evident this is going to be a top player in the NBA someday it’s just not worth it give it an additional year get a larger sample size of their performance and make a determination from there when they’re a restrictive free agent have the market dictate their worth so you know you’re getting good value on the deal just my thoughts on the matter I would love to hear what you guys think let me know in the comments as always be sure to subscribe and I will see you in the next one

Discussing the recent rookie max contract extensions of Scotty Barnes, Cade Cunningham and Franz Wagner and whether the contracts are worth their value

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