In the upcoming days, I'll be taking a look at each key player for the Miami Heat in more depth. I'll be taking a deep dive into the kind of season they just had, what they showed, what they were good at, what still needs to be worked on, what do they need to make a potential leap, and projecting what their season is and should look like. I do this as an article on my Substack, which I'd appreciate if you could check it out! & here, I'll be making a shorter, summary of all the key points!
For the final deep dive, we're ending it by going through the season Bam Adebayo had. You can check out the full breakdown here!
Side note
I've realised as I was summarising this that it's still very long. So, apologies for making this one a bit longer than previous ones, I just had a lot more stuff to go through with Bam on "both" ends of the floor, instead of focusing on offense with others!
Bam Adebayo as always had one of the better seasons in general and a lot of that has to do with him simply being consistently a top 3 defender in the league. This was probably the year that he should’ve won DPOY because of how elite he usually has been.
This season saw Adebayo in a different role on both ends of the floor(one was more successful than the other, though). Because of that, the amount of responsibilities that he had and still manages to be impactful was impressive, especially given the context of the team.
At the same time, the direction with how he was being used on the offensive end and how that looked in that role was one of the main reasons why the Heat’s offense looked the way it did. We already saw this transition started last year with him being used more in on-ball roles.
Defense
Couper Moorhead had the best article and an entire thread that details everything you need to know about Bam's defense. Here's the link to his tweet that includes the thread + the article! A lot of the stats in the thread compared him to the 3 other DPOY candidates(Wemby, Davis, Rudy), so here's a some summary where he ranked amongst them:
- Half court defense with said player on: 2nd
- Half court defense on/off difference: 1st
- Pts per drive allowed: 1st
- Pts per closeout: 1st
- Pts per post up: 2nd
- Pts allowed to ball handler in PNR: 1st
- Team rim frequency allowed: 1st
The main thing was how Bam & the team was using him compared to previous years. He was more of a drop defender where 53% of his time was in that coverage – he still defended nearly 8 switches, shows, blitz, which is the highest by far compared to other drop bigs.
Every time it was said that he’s an elite switch defender, but he doesn’t do the big stuff on defense as well as others. Per Coup, at the end of February, he tweeted that Adebayo only allowed 0.92 pts per poss when not up to touch — just as good as any other 7fter.
Another stat per Coup(in March), Bam had a def EPM of +2.8 this year where he's playing mostly in drop. He compared that 2022, where it was at +2.9 when he was switching everything. This really showed the value he brings as a versatile defender. I don't there's any one else that can have such impact in many, many different ways.
Everything about his defense was just WOW!
Link to the defense vs Magic – This is him doing the usual big stuff on defense defending screens, being the help side defender and executing any extra help needed perfectly or casually defending Paolo Banchero for full possessions.
Link to the defense vs Rockets – Showing versatility + was a big reason why they had 11 shots at the rim
Link to the defense vs Nuggets – Did a job defending Jokic as well as he could & still do everything else on the court to limit how good that 2-man action was. This is where his defense in drop was showing
Link to the defense vs Cavaliers – Making life hell because of PNR versatility. It is a luxury to have a big that can play effective drop, then play higher up against certain players at different points & if they’re still comfortable have him blitz & if that’s still not good enough, let’s switch
Link to the defense vs Bulls – This was my fave. This was a do-or-die game and Adebayo came to play on that end. This is where his defensive skillset is seen perfectly. He was chasing DeRozan around off-ball screens, navigating PNRs, defending his drives, and that’s on top of doing everything else in the PNR
This was just the best defender in the league doing the best defender in the league type of stuff. That’s why the Heat’s defense was 111.7 with him on and 114.3 without him. That’s the difference between being second and 12th. If there was anything to take away from this season from Adebayo is that he is a generational talent on defense. As long as he’s on the team, the Heat’s defense will never be a question
Offense
Now, getting to the offense, that’s where the questions are. Depending on what you took away from it or rather how you envision that development going forward determines how to feel about Adebayo on offense.
He isn't a guy to be a #1 or #2 on offense. He isn't a guy to average 15 shots with the "way" he gets those looks. There is a reason why his offensive impact has been dropping in each season.
According to his O-EPM in the last four years:
+1.7 → +1.0 → +0.9 → -0.5
That’s also not to say that he’s worse on offense. He definitely has improved and become a more all-around player on offense, but with the way he gets his offense with the kind of shot diet that he has, it’s not going to be as impactful.
The 1st thing is because of him being used a lot more in the post & isolation. In total, he had 430pts on 162/336 FGA. That's 33% of his FGA. The issue is the efficiency. He's shooting 48% & sub 1.0 per possession.
In a vacuum, that "is" a respectable shot. It's great that he developed enough of a good shot at a solid volume to be a near 50% on self created shots. But that is only impactful on top of the higher efficient looks. Bam doesn't have that.
He doesn't get to the rim, especially when it's self created. His rim rate also has decreased because he's been going away from rolling hard & instead either goes to work in the paint or stops rolling around the elbows to go for those paint shots after:
His rim rate since 2020:
- 54.7% -> 41.7% -> 44.6% -> 35.7% -> 30.5%
It has been significantly declining because he's going away from being used as a roll man or cutter for isolation & post ups. But even when he rolls, he has stopped rolling hard to the rim. That tracks with his increase in both short and long mid-range rate:
Short mid range:
- 34.3% -> 40.1% -> 40.6% -> 52.8% -> 51.0%
Long mid-range:
- 9.2% -> 17.1% -> 14.0% -> 10.4% -> 14.3%
He's shooting 43% on 543 FGA beyond 5ft. That's 53% of his shots. He's also shooting 38% on 307 attempts beyond 10ft. That's 30% of his offense. That's going to have issues with efficiency, especially with the player taking 15 shots.
It's effective that he has that range & those counters instead of being just a roll/cut big. That's why he grades out as elite vs centers. He's not just a player that's dependent on others. He's clearly above that role, at the same time that doesn't warrant those touches either
Here are his isolation stats vs bigs:
Here are his post up stats vs bigs(this isn't quite as elite as the isolation, he doesn't have a good, polished post game):
A lot of that has to do with his lack of rim pressure. Again compared to the role of normal bigs, he’s clearly above that. But compared to on-ball wings and bigs:
He doesn't have that same impact because he can't create shots at the rim himself consistently at a good volume.
Link to his self created rim shots
These shots don't happen as often. He can get to the rim in transition. He can punish smaller, weaker guys with ease. He hasn't been able to consistently take slower, bigger guys off the dribble. He doesn't have the handle. He also doesn't have the post work either to punish players his size with ease.
That's probably his main weakness & it's have better moves in the post. There's a reason he can only get those paint shots, floaters, push shots or fading away.
But as much as it looks fun on highlights & as much as you want to call us nerds that are robots, him shooting 45-50% on those shots don't make a difference
Link to his self created mid-range shots
Highlights & how it looks doesn't change math. A 50% shot is still just 1.00 shot per poss. That's why the Celtics lived with that.
The issue with Bam also expands to him hunting those shots even when he isn't self creating. He doesn't roll the same. He upped his C&S 2pt freq. He's popping a lot more in the mid-range. Has a lot of pull ups from the line. Again, he got better at it but MATH MATTERS
That's why a lot of the PNR actions basically end with him taking a similar shot he would've creating on his own. Out of 35 players with at least 2 possessions as a roll man, he’s shooting 51.5% eFG – 32nd. Compare that to 2021, where he was 4th in eFG as a roll man with 67.7%.
That's why he's been less efficient! His best way of generating rim pressure has always been because he's such an elite roll threat – teams literally do everything to stop that
Though that is a big reason why he has gone away from it. There's no space and no guard play good enough to change that. The biggest threat in the PNR isn't/wasn't Gabe Vincent, Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro, or Terry Rozier, it's Bam. So, it's not entirely his fault… but there has been a reluctance or at least him wanting to hunt those shots
This is also related to his passes.
When it comes to his passes. Bam is a great passer but only for his role at a certain volume. I wouldn't say he's at the level where you can rely on him in the way he's been asked to, especially as a self creator. There's a difference between making reads on the move rolling vs making those same passes out of isolation or in the post
1 thing that has always stood out with him is he hasn't mastered the ability to be a scorer "and" simultaneously be a passer. There is a switch in him that has to be hit to be maximised in either roles. Think of the Bucks game in the playoffs
Here are his passing stats compared to different groups – Everyone, bigs, on-ball players:
Here's also how he ranks compared to similar players/roles/size
1 thing that stands out is him handling doubles. Defense HAVE started to respect him a lot more but it also feels they double him "because" he isn't making the reads to punish them – That's the Joel Embiid strategy from previous years
He's going to make the pass, but it's a simple kick or easy that the defense can recover. He needs to take significant steps in surveying the floor at a much quicker speed. I'm not sure if he even sees those windows often either. But this something that can & should develop with more reps, especially given where his passing ability already is at
So where does that leave Adebayo for the season?
One thing I haven’t mentioned yet is the idea of having as the four with Kel’el Ware being drafted. This is something I’ve touched on already in much more depth here!
As of this moment, I think the expectation should be with Adebayo in a similar role. There may be spot minutes to see how that duo will work, but it won’t be for anything significant until proven otherwise.
When it comes to how it stands right now, though. Defensively, I don’t see much difference. With the offense, I honestly don’t see that change either. The only way that changes is with Butler being more engaged and the whole offensive system is different.
Unless that changes, without Butler eating up the touches, I don’t see a reason why there’d be any change with Adebayo. It does look like that’s the goal. It’s to keep giving him those reps and the freedom to look to expand his game. But that can only happen with a "leap"
If he’s able to make his handle better or get some better post moves, then it might be more viable. If he’s able to pressure the rim more and force the defense to react in a different way than just a double or pre-rotations, then that could make a bigger difference.
So, what did you make of Bam's season? Was this his best defensive season yet? & how do you feel about his offensive growth but remaining inefficient with his shot diet?
by SimplyBallin
3 Comments
🫀
Bams kinda been held back bro shoulda been shooting 3s for the past few yrs. Ion think it was ever him being bad its just not being able to he even let tell Spo when he shot it at the All Star Game.
Miami simply have to find a way to have a more efficient offense, but Bam and especially Herro’s games are just suited to that. I really hope to see a major retool of the offense but I don’t expect much. Also as far as Bam being a 4 I unfortunately don’t think he has the handle to play at the wing consistently. Would be cool to see him shoot from the corners more though and not be the only screener on the floor.
Ultimately his best role is as a rim running PNR monster but Miami does not have the personnel to run that scheme. Expecting more of the same this season tbh.