pbpstats.com offers exact possession counts and exact TS% calculations – sources like basketball reference estimate both figures. The nice thing about basketball reference is those estimates go back to the pre-play by play era, but in this case we'll just look at recent NBA history.
Using this data, I calculated the following metrics for each player's postseason career:
- Points Per 75 Possessions: Simply the total points they scored divided by the total possessions they were on the court for, multiplied by 75 to give us a nice looking number. Why are we adjusting for possessions? Different teams play at different paces, different years had different average paces, players might get fewer minutes because of a blowout or because of an injury, etc… all this stuff impacts PPG. For this, I am interested in what happens at a posession level.
- Defense-Adjusted rTS%: Relative true shooting is typically calculated as a player's TS% minus league average TS%. This is practical for the regular season, but with limited opponents in the postseason, I think the TS% allowed by the teams you faced is more important. So for this study, we calculate rTS% as a player's TS% minus the TS% allowed by the opponent in the regular season. If you Player A plays a playoff series against an elite defense and Player B plays a playoff series against a trash defense, this should be accounted for.
This was mostly automated but I had to pick players one-by-one to do the calculations for. Of the players I chose, here are those with at least 5000 possessions played, sorted by PP75.
| Player | GP | PP75 | rTS% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic | 80 | 27.76 | +5.18% |
| LeBron James | 287 | 27.67 | +5.37% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 79 | 27.51 | +1.86% |
| Kevin Durant | 170 | 27.49 | +5.47% |
| Kobe Bryant | 170 | 27.00 | +2.38% |
| Stephen Curry | 147 | 26.52 | +5.98% |
| Dirk Nowitzki | 145 | 24.52 | +5.00% |
| Russell Westbrook | 122 | 24.42 | -3.46% |
| Damian Lillard | 65 | 24.19 | +1.82% |
| James Harden | 166 | 23.94 | +4.33% |
| Dwyane Wade | 183 | 23.79 | +2.02% |
| Jayson Tatum | 113 | 23.47 | -0.38% |
| Kawhi Leonard | 139 | 23.30 | +7.40% |
| Tim Duncan | 225 | 22.42 | +1.82% |
| Jimmy Butler | 119 | 21.78 | +1.95% |
| Chris Paul | 149 | 21.24 | +3.67% |
| Paul Pierce | 170 | 20.54 | +2.89% |
| Kevin Garnett | 127 | 20.29 | +0.50% |
| Steve Nash | 112 | 18.67 | +5.43% |
Here's a plot to go with it because that might be too many numbers tbh.
Here are the players I initially chose who didn't meet the 5000 possession minimum, but I thought were notable enough players to check. Completely arbitrary selection, though. Let me know if you want someone else’s numbers and I may deliver.
| Player | GP | PP75 | rTS% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic | 50 | 30.67 | +1.50% |
| Donovan Mitchell | 54 | 28.57 | -0.79% |
| Allen Iverson | 53 | 27.49 | -2.49% |
| Joel Embiid | 59 | 26.94 | +1.44% |
| Anthony Davis | 60 | 25.58 | +6.08% |
| Jamal Murray | 65 | 24.07 | -0.08% |
Note that for older players like Kobe Bryant, full postseason careers are not included because the earliest season with this data is 2000-01. I excluded some great players like Shaquille O'Neal because too much of their prime would've been excluded for it to really be fair – I think everyone here has their prime fairly captured, though.
by LeBronRaymoneJamesSr
3 Comments
Kawhi in a tier of his own for your rTS% metric.
What this tells me is that top tier scorers are way more efficient today, even against good defenses, than previous era. Look at everyone who came after 2010, basically… 5%+ , everyone before 2010, i.e.pierce, Duncan, Kobe, etc… under 5%.
AD mad underrated. His playoff scoring numbers here look as good as anyone while being by far the best defender on this list, and arguably the best rebounder too.