How Will The Raptors Approach POST All-Star Break Basketball?
The Raptors got destroyed by the Cavaliers in their final game before the All-Star break. RJ Barrett returned, Brandon Ingram had his press conference, and Scottie Barnes struggled.
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18 Comments
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love these. great job Es
🦖💯🦖!!
we will ruin our tank affter the break sadly, they're just tired and need rest. esp gradey
I've had enough of mogbo get boucher minutes. Chris is in his contract year he deserves a chance to play for his value and also see how he fits with this new unit. He should b starting when Jakob is out not mogbo.
Idk if I can wait till next season to see Ingram play lol, I hope he can play at least a few games before the season's done
Its not that complicated. The object for the should be doing whats best for the next ten years, and that's losing games. They should give themselves the best odds in this moment and time becomes nothing else matters
@Es i hear alot of people saying bobby said they can go into the luxury tax. they dont realize rogers is the one that has to pay it. and he likely wont for a play in team. in fact he probably wont unless the raptors make it to conference finals.
so i believe its wishful thinking. because you can always see the truth from words and actions being congruent. and rogers and mlse havent gone into the luxury tax unless the team has shown to be a contender meaning they have made the conference finals.
in fact going into the tax for the season is probably a bad decision as players know someone is on the way out. as well other teams know you are wanting to get out of the tax so you lose alot of leverage. what if no one wants to play ball unless you include a good young player or a 1st round pick. thats the reality if you go in thinking you can get under the tax easily.
@es who is expendable to get under the tax. I think its RJ or Gradey as they are both defensive liabilities. RJ more so because he is the 3rd Banana now on the team and due for an early extension that will put the raptors into luxury tax when his contract is up. Dont forget jakob poeltl is due for an early extension and i think he is gonna ask for 32-38 million a year with new cable tv revenue kicking in 2026. Its why i thought jakob was gonna be moved because to fix the spacing and roster construction flaws on the team. they have to draft a mobile 3 pt shooting defensive center like khaman maluach, or even a derik queen in the 1st round to develop for the future.
the only other situation i see RJ staying is if IQ is moved.
out of the 2 biggest contracts able to be moved, those two are the question marks if they fit long term. gradey is only 2nd year and not making much so they likely just give him time to see if his defence improves, or his offence is so great it warrants having his defensive liability.
also i dont think masai is gonna go into the luxury tax hoping he can get out with his contract up in the summer of 2026. if something goes sideways and mlse has to pay that luxury tax or lose assets, masai is done.
I think they will play Ingram for limited minutes before the season ends. Just to see how it works. But not full games.
I wonder: with Ingram and a high pick rookie contract, is there still room for a backup center?
Its much more likely the Raptors end up 8th or 9th than 4th in lottery. As you mentioned they won't all out tank, but they also aren't strategically tanking. The philly game is a perfect example, playing Barnes 37 minutes against a team close to them in the standings, a team that could very easily slide down the standings if Embiid misses a series of games. It's unfortunate Maxie had a dud of a game but Darko has to be more strategic to control the outcome. Resting Barnes a few extra minutes likely changes the result.
Only 1 of the last 23 games is against an over .500 team which is the 2nd last game of the season against Dallas when they may be resting multiple starters for the playoff run. Many of those 23 games are against teams that are either all out tanking or just more committed to the tank. Charlotte, Chicago, Portland, Brooklyn, New Orleans; all have much harder remaining strength of schedules and those teams are all close enough in wins-losses that even 2 or 3 extra games against tough opponents may make the difference.
As an example, Chicago has 8 games remaining against teams higher in the standings than the Raptors 2nd toughest opponent. Combine that with the Raptors facing 13 easy opponents compared to Chicago having just 8, means that gap of 5 games in the standings is virtually meaningless. 2 strategic losses to the Bulls needs to be planned for.
If you think strategic wins/losses aren't important, just remember last season where they sat a healthy Quickley out and started Freeman-Liberty against the Pacers. Lost the game they may have won, resulting in the Pacers having an extra win which meant a minimum of 3 positions and potentially up to 6 positions in the pick position that was used to pick JaKobe. And ya, they may have not won anyway, but they didn't even plan on it strategically which would be to play their best lineup against the team they controlled the pick for. That said, JaKobe looks like he might turn out to be really good in a few years.
If Ingram plays in any games against the sub .500 teams (which is pretty much every game) and presuming most of the other starters are healthy, those games are more likely to be a win. Your not playing Ingram to see how he plays alongside Temple and bench crew, your playing him with mostly (if not all) starter unit. The players may lose due to creating more turnovers since they haven't played together but the team is likely to be the favorite to win those games purely based on the quality of the starting unit compared to the other sub .500 teams. ie if you think the addition of Ingram makes the Raptors an over .500 team next year, it means with Ingram they are better, or in a few cases equal to, roughly 90% of the remaining opponents this year.
I'm not saying they can't hold their current position in the standings, but it'll be hard to lose enough games to do that without really dedicating to at least a few strategic losses. It will be extremely hard to lose enough games to climb lottery rankings.
A big part of it is when do the players give up on making the play in and when does the FO start sitting "healthy" starters. The players will play hard in most games up to that point. Being just 5 games out from teams that lose more often than they win likely means the players haven't given up. That may change if the losses mount up over the next few games before they reach the end of season easy schedule.
Hoping they stay in the top 5 in the lottery, but predicting they finish 8th.
If you want to pass Charlotte, 2 strategic losses against them isn't enough. Charlotte only has 7 easy games left so they'll likely only get 5-7 more wins and rack up a bunch of losses. Doubt the win-loss records between the 2 teams will even be close. Raptors will likely finish with at least 10 more wins than Charlotte.
The only way this works (meaning we become contenders again) is if Scottie takes a superstar leap next year. We need someone to establish themselves as a first option. BI and RJ are both great number 2 options, but Scottie has to become that number 1. Get back to around 35% from 3 and drive to the rim with force every time. Use the midrange and 3 ball as a counter. RJ and BI will get their fair share of buckets with Scottie’s playmaking, but ultimately Scottie has to take that leap on offense.
Stay cozy, Es. 😁
Rowen as in his father? Or is that what the R in RJ stands for?
Keep the games tight but ultimately come up short be competitive get a solid draft pic
We don’t talk enough about how good Jameson battle is
Good stuff Es, thank you for these great videos.