Boston Celtics vs New York Knicks Playoff Primer

Boston Celtics vs New York Knicks Playoff Primer

Grant Celtics vers Knicks the collision course that took a little longer to get to than I think people were expect even on Boston side with what happened uh against Orlando. Yeah. Tactically speaking, what are you watching for in this matchup? Uh so for the Knicks, I’m interested to see if they view what Orlando tried against Boston as like a blueprint. You know, just essentially one, do they think they have the personnel to do it? They probably should. Um, and two, will that be will will switching a lot and not helping and not letting the Celtics get the like multiple swing passes for open threes, not helping on drives, like that kind of thing, just kind of playing like one-on-one basketball with a lot of switches. Like, is that something the Knicks believe they can believe is a good idea and believe that they can succeed with because their personnel is very different obviously from from Orlando’s. Um, and then do you also like is it a good idea to just like take notes from a team that got its ass kicked by the Celtics? I don’t know. Um, that that like that seems like an interesting way to keep Cat and and Brunson out of like pick and roll attacks to the extent Boston might try to do that. Um, just switch a lot and just live with it. Uh, I don’t know. My gut says that’s not what the Knicks will do, but I don’t know. Orlando made it interesting by kind of trying that for some stretches. Yeah. And look, I mean, the Celtics against the Magic shot 34.8 three-pointers per 100 possessions. During the regular season, they shot 49.6 uh three-pointers per 100 possessions. That’s a monster drop off. And they’re also just Orlando’s contest rate, 15.4% of Boston’s jumpers, so any shots outside of 10 feet went unguarded. Uh that number during the regular season for Boston was 26.2%. I’m here to tell you, Grant, and I don’t think this is going to shock you, the Knicks have neither the coach nor the personnel that is going to replicate anything we saw Orlando do defensively. I don’t think even if you believe that this team has the screen navigation to run Boston off the three-point line. I would argue that’s debatable, but you have Hart, you have Ojanobi, you have Male Bridges, you have Deuce McBride. Sure. They do not have just like the symphony of incredible rotations around the basket. When like when Orlando is scrambling, it’s it’s fine. Like someone’s going to be in the right spot. When the Knicks are scrambling, you’re getting they’re not fine. It’s choose your own it’s like it’s choose your own adventure except they don’t get to choose it. It’s the other team kind of choosing their own adventure. So I I’d be interested to try it because if it doesn’t work in theory it’s like right well let’s not let Boston beat you from three and then this kind of dissuades them going after the Carl Towns andor Jaylen Brunson in the pick and roll but I just I don’t see I mean to be fair the Magic are one of the three best defenses in the league right now. It’s not something but the fact that they did that without Jaylen Suggs who was their best defender. I just don’t maybe if you play Mitchell Robinson that’s how like so you have Towns like being more aggressive on the perimeter. I just don’t I don’t know. I would argue that just given the inconsistency we’ve seen from Male Bridges at points defensively and then just having Brunson and Towns and having to account for those minutes together. I don’t think they could duplicate what we saw from Orlando. Can you pause real quick? Yeah. Berts chew. Yeah. And so just a stat I was looking up kind of on on that point essentially like so the Magic playing everybody’s calling it island basketball or forcing Boston to do that got the Celtics to isolate on just under 17% of their offensive possessions which is up from 10% during the year. The interesting thing is like that 10% figure was the third highest in the league. So Boston like the Magic made it extreme but Boston was being well whether Boston wanted to do it or not because both their their points per play was like you know just 0.96.98 regular season versus post which is in like the 70th 80th like it’s good for an isolation possession but the I think the takeaway is that the Celtics were kind of what Orlando did was extreme but it wasn’t different like Boston has been faced with having to isolate like much more than a normal normal team in like throughout this year. So, if the Knicks think that that’s like, well, that’s the way it’s I don’t know. Boston also kind of is pretty comfortable if you just make Jason Tatum take somebody one-on-one or Jaylen Brown. Like, that’s not going to be new to them. No, it won’t be. I don’t I the Knicks defending the Celtics is I don’t know what the pathway is to them doing that. I think it’s I honestly I think it you would have to if you were to map out the ideal scenario, Carl Anthony Towns or Jaylen Brunson isn’t on the floor and that’s just a non option offensively. Yeah. The other thing I’m monitoring tactically with this and it’s not like the Josh Hart of it all. Tibs, unless unless Josh Hart’s in foul trouble, Josh Hart is going to play. And that’s when you kind of look at how he’s this emotional bellweather for the team and the stuff he does on the glass and, you know, helping them push the pace because, man, I get so tired in the fourth quarter of watching them just dribble into like eight seconds of the shot. It’s like, “All right, now we’ll set the ball screen.” So, I appreciate that. But the Celtics and the Pistons did this like during the regular season, they didn’t have Duran on Hart. The playoff series, you saw a lot of Jaylen Duran on Josh Hart. And it it worked for the most part. Uh against when when Duran was defending Josh Hart, uh the Knicks scored about 1.01 points per possession. That’s not great. Now, during the regular season, Porzingis was the Celtics who who Celtics player who spent the most time on Hart. The Knicks offense averaged 0.95 points per possession in those instances. When it’s Al Horford, it’s even lower. 0.92 points per possession. The Celtics are going to do it again. And it it almost doesn’t I say almost, it definitely doesn’t matter how well Josh Hart is shooting from three. He shot percentage-wise fine against the Pistons. The volume’s like under three attempts per game. And even if he got hot, I’m going to tell you, let’s just say Josh Hart went seven of 10 from three in every single game. I really don’t think Boston’s going to care still. I I think that’s right. I think it like there might be a game like you know if you’re just going through a series thinking like how do man how do the Knicks get a couple here like one is Hart’s like you Hart is seven for eight from three and and and the Knicks win that game the Celtics won’t change their coverage you know they’ll just be like yeah you got that one do it again and and I don’t think Hart can do it that it’s interesting you mentioned the heart like how the Celtics guard Hart and like just just what Hart’s role is that’s very much tied to Cat Because the the the flip side of oh Duran’s on heart is like well Tobias Harris is on cat and the numbers you know you’ve seen some version of this throughout that we saw like Tobias Harris on cat is great and then when it’s Duran on on cat that like I mean for for the Pistons it was so the the correl the related idea here is for tactically for Boston like which big guy can you put on cat and can you just make sure there’s a big guy on cat all the time and if you can looks pretty good for you. The what I was going to ask you is what is the way to even combat the heart problem because I think the Knicks have defaulted and this is a big reason why like the Jaylen Brunson cat pick and roll like even when they’ve used it more it doesn’t feel like enough. It feels like the solution is well have heart be the screener for Brunson. Yeah. And in theory I guess that makes sense but then you’re neutralizing Towns. Is there any merit to having Carl Anthony Towns screen for Josh Hart or have Josh Hart screen for Carl Anthony Towns and trying to force a switch that way or is that because the thing that they Boston’s also done they’ve had no qualms about having Jason Tatum on Carl Anthony Towns right which is like that’s different than Tobias Harris I guess um like in a in a way that should concern uh you know what sorry I think I misspoke because I I framed it as if like can the can the Celtics keep a big on Cat, which is not what you want. You want you want Tatum to be able to guard Cat and be the Tobias Harris because that just works better defensively. The Pistons showed, you know, when it’s Harris on Cat, that works better. So, I hope that wasn’t unclear. But yeah, no, to your point, like I think there there could be a lot of like off offball like pre-action screening by the Knicks to just try, you know, good one. I said should. I didn’t say there will be. But you have to like you’re not good enough to let the Celtics guard you how they want to guard you. You have to like be doing other stuff to get the matchups that you prefer, right? Like that’s not just specific to the Knicks. Maybe it’s harder for the Knicks, but like that’s just something you have to be doing to to engineer the matchups you want, right? And and what I suggested I don’t like so the endgame would be you just want to get the big on because Jason Tatum on Josh Hart, that’s not really a win for you. I think even a big like let’s say both the Boston Bigs are on the court. you’re bringing both of them into the screen again. Josh Hart with I don’t know if that’s a win for the Knicks, but having a big and then it’s so if a big’s already on Carl Anthony Towns, why do it? But if it’s one big, getting the big back on Carl Towns might make some sense. I just this feels like a Well, I don’t want to spoil my pick, but this just feels like I don’t know what needs to happen short of aliens abducting like yeah, three fifths of the Boston starting five for the Knicks to have a real chance here. So, what are you looking at, unless you have anything to add on the tactical front, what are you looking at narratively for this series? Uh, just I think we’ve talked about the other end, but I think Boston gets a pretty different challenge defending the Knicks than they do uh Orlando. It’s just it’s just kind of like a it’s like a you know, doesn’t it feel like Boston more than any other team this year was we were just kind of like like think of our Discord channel like we don’t talk about the Celtics on there because it’s like wake me up in June. like they’re just really good. Nothing that happens in the regular season, you know, for good or ill is enough to like make us really seriously have a conversation about them because it’s like we’re not they’re just talk about movies and TV shows. Like because what are we going to talk about? They just, you know, they won the title and very convinc like they were great and they seem just as you know. So this is I just view the Knicks as I know you’re down on the Knicks and for some pretty valid reasons as a team. You mentioned you you said this before and I made a joke when you were like, “Oh, it’s going to be they’re going to stress test Boss’s defense more than Orlando’s offense did.” And there are just points where that might not be true. And that’s what’s so distressing. I mean, the thing is nobody stress tests the defense like less than Orlando. So, it’s like that’s a pretty pretty safe take for me. Um, but like I I don’t know. And then then the other side of it is the narrative is tied together because for the Knicks it’s like you haven’t beaten a good team like all year. Like you just haven’t done it for a number of reasons. Can you do it once in this series? Like I don’t think you could do it four. Not to spoil my pick, but like that is like if if this is a sweep then the Knicks just like oh they just never beat a good team all year. They were like 0 and 10 against the top three basically, right? That was the stat that was bandied about all year. Like I just you you’ve talked a lot about how like this team is sort of there’s a cap on it with this current roster and the cap is just not high enough. This will just be like the definitive proof of that if they just get housed. And I think that’s what I’m watching. And it was the same thing in the Piston series except now I think you get to a point where it’s what constitutes success against the Celtics to where you wouldn’t fire Tibs to where you wouldn’t look at making a trade where I think the move that everyone’s focused on. You want a different type of big in here but I just you have Carl Anthony Towns and like that he’s a fantastic player but you have so much financial equity committed to him. The idea that you now need to go out and spend more of whatever little is left of your asset equity to get another big is just I understand it but that to me that’s problematic. Like the way the w the wolves giving up what they did for Rudy Gober like that was still problematic. They’ve been a really good team. It ended up working out but like that’s not when you have Carl like when you have this sevenfooter and like that’s not what you want to be using all your best chips remaining on. And I don’t know what constitutes success. And I think I’m not a Tom Tibido defender. And I’ve gotten some push back because I basically said I don’t I think Tom Tibido is a problem. I don’t think that he is the problem. I think the problem and will end up being the Cardinal sin is what they gave up for Male Bridges, which I don’t think is the fault of Male Bridges. It’s they decided I I understood the logic. We talked about it at length at the time. I understood the logic. They waited. They were responsible with their assets. Do you know what happened? Jaylen Brunson got too damn good to wait and the OGobi trade worked out really well for them and the Bridges trade in theory. Yes, it was an overpay but it was someone that you viewed as a finishing touch to put you in the conversation with all of the teams that you have lost to this season. It hasn’t done that and I don’t know what the fallout is. You can’t trade an outright first round pick this summer. You’re going to be limited like with your financial resources when it comes to getting free agents. If you lose in four or five, aside from firing Tom Tibido, I guess it’s a twofold question, Grant. One, does another coach come in here and make this team with basically this exact same core more of a threat to beat the Cavs or Boston next year? And then two, if the answer is no, do the Knicks have any way to like because the move would be you want Josh Hart coming back off the bench and so you need a new starter, which if recent weeks have been any indication, it cannot be a Deuce McBride type. who’s just not making shots. I think that it’s most likely that the coaching changes what’ll happen because it’s pretty it’s just easier to talk yourself into the idea that like there’s just kind of like money on the left on the table offensively with the talent that the Knicks have. just like if you can just just let’s not have Brunson be like a threat to lead in usage every year and not have him be like you know a fif whatever his usage rate is in clut in clutch situations like a little more dynamism figure out how to squeeze more value out of having cat as a spacing player like you know Bridges can do a little OG showed he could do a there’s there’s like more it just needs to be more variety harder to game plan against for a playoff opponent than it is I I so like I I get Yeah. If if the Knicks get a game or two games and and and lose, then like yeah, I don’t know what has to happen for for the Knicks to finish this postseason having lost this series and say like I think we just run it back. Like I don’t I don’t it’s gonna be pretty hard for me to imagine that hypothetical and it’s I think the push back would be this is their first year together. Carl Towns trade didn’t happen until during training camp basically. Yeah. But that comes back to what you I’m going to cite you citing me. There’s just a cap on this team even at its peak with the personnel particularly on the defensive end. Even if you think another coach comes in here and gives you a more innovate like they are fifth in point score per possession offensively. You could make the playoff offense crunchtime offense better. What is that doing for you? Like how many more games is that worth against the Celtics or the Cavs? And in some ways, I think for a lot of Knicks fans, and if Knicks fans are listening, comment, get in our Discord, let me know. I wonder if they more so fear like the Knicks pushing this to six or seven because then it emboldens them not to make changes like changing the head coach. You need to be sure there’s an upgrade out there. I think I’ve seen a lot of people say Kenny Atinson came in and look what he did for the Cavs. Kenny Atinson’s still coaching the Cavs. Who was the coach out there that like is it do you think it’s Taylor Jenkins? Like what is like who is the coach that you think is going to come in here and install like the principles and get more out of this roster? I’m again this is not a proke keeping tibs thing. He’s he’s so problematic in a lot of his stubbornness. Yeah. But like I don’t know that another co co like if Quinn Snyder was available. Okay, maybe like that’s a name. If Eric Wster was available, yeah, sure. But like of the names that are out there and this team isn’t this front office at least hasn’t shown like will they go off the beaten path and go after a first timer like a former assistant like Chris Quinn or if Becky Hammond is still going to receive consideration for gigs or do they have the gall to do that because you are damn like if it doesn’t work out like okay you’ve kind of wasted your window. We know how short that these windows are now. Well, yeah. I mean, that maybe we should save some of this for a hypothetical postmortem. Um, for the Celtics, right? Right. When the Knicks sweep. Um, do you want to talk X factors? Like, get to predictions. I mean, go ahead. For Boston, like, isn’t it just Al Horford? Cuz like he’s the big that can guard Cat who’s also not a big and then you just like that’s best of both worlds. We’re fine. Like, he he can move. So, he’s al he’s sort of like giving you the having a forward on him if it’s not going to be Tatum, which I think you’re right. It probably will be Tatum a lot. But if Horford can just guard him and then hit threes, you know, I just like he could, you know, he could swing the series and average seven points a game. Like that’s not an out that’s not out of the question. Al Horford is going to be a playoff Xfactor until he’s like 70 years old, right? So, next year. I do. I put Drew Holiday just because I was struggling to find one. There’s the whole jumper stuff, but I think the bigger thing is Jaylen Brown spent the most time the regular season guarding Jaylen Brunson. Will Boston, given the stuff he’s been dealing with his knee, look to insulate him at all? And if they do, I’m assuming then Drew Holidayiday is going to be the one that takes on even more of the Brunson role. And I just I mean that doesn’t bother me, but it just that’s why I had him as the X-factor. Yeah. And for the Knicks, it’s just deuce. like is he going to make shots? And if he’s not, then I guess we’re playing everybody 48 minutes, you know, like he just because you’re going to see, not that the Knicks usually stagger their minutes this way necessarily, but like Pritchard’s going to come in and I’m going to assume Pritchard will give you like pretty solid minutes against opposing backups to the extent the Knicks play them. Can McBride be half as good? Can he be half as productive? like can he can he do the Josh Hart thing and oh he was six of eight from three like that’s why the Knicks won game two or you know that kind of thing because if McBride’s not going to just like play over his head for a game or so like what like where are the Knicks turning? I I so I think what proves that that’s a good X actor pick is that because if he doesn’t able to do that stuff we’re going to be asking like oh can how much campaign can hold up in this maybe campaign can win you a playoff game. He tends to do that once or twice. did that in game one against the Pistons, which incredible, also problematic. That’s like that’s what it took. I So I just have Josh Hard again. I think he was probably my X-factor in the Piston series. That’s the like he’s the one that draws in like the gimmicky defense and his ability like no, they’re never going to guard him, but if he hits enough threes, it’s it’s not wasted possessions. Can he get offensive rebounds to create second chance opportunities if you’re going to use him as the screener? Like are the Knicks able to capitalize off that or is he an X actor? because we’re going to run more Carl Towns and Brunson5 pick and roll and someone’s still going to be guarding Josh Hart and roaming off him to try and gum that up. I think it’s just it and we know he’s going to be playing a ton of minutes. So, I think it’s just I think it’s him and it’s also the Knicks are going to play reliably like maybe six and a half players maybe. So, your your pickings are slim. Like we just named the only possible X factors. Everybody else must play well for the go with Mitch Robinson if you wanted to, but I like I just feel like he’s kind of maxed out at 17 minutes per game now. There’s been flashes of the towns like Mitch minutes and which they’ve been good. I don’t know if the the Celtics are a team I mean they do play two bigs but like they’re both perimeter oriented, right? They’re they they’re bigs but they’re also not like in some important ways. So yeah, it’s it’s tough for him because he’s a big in like all of the traditional ways. So like he’s he’s kind of the one that stands out. What is your prediction for this series? I would just have to say Celtics in five. Um I I it’s does it does it make you feel better that to me it’s closer to Celtics in six than a sweep? But I’m going I’m going with five. I’m going to go with Celtics in five as well. I think that there will just we said I think I said this leading into the Magic series. There’s just going to be a game. Yeah. when it’s happening like you know consecutively where Boston’s offense doesn’t have it where they themselves devolve into one-on-one stuff even if the Knicks aren’t necessarily forcing it we will see a hallmark at least one of them oh cary towns is like spacing out to 30 feet and knocking down threes and then he’ll never do it again for a couple of games I think the Knicks will get one but this does seem like a series I don’t mean to be just a negative Nelly on the Knicks here but like this series because you’re going to see them play the Celtics again and at least four times I do think it’s going reinforce just how far away, right, they are to that upper echelon of of title contention. And and like if you’re going to say the N, oh, the Knicks could push this to six or seven or win it, it’s like sure, but like where’s the evidence for that? Because there’s none in the regular season. There’s very little that we got out of the Detroit series. And it’s just I just like I don’t like you’re gonna need to you really got to sell me because I you know I I want to be fair about it but I just don’t know what like what points are you what are you pointing to as like here’s why the Knicks you know are getting underrated or whatever by us. I I just does something happen with J Jason Tatum’s wrist and he doesn’t play for the rest of the series because I might still pick the Celtics in six if you told me Jason Tatum wasn’t playing. Yeah. Oh, woo. That’d be an interesting hypothetical. Cool. [Music]

Dan and Grant break down the second-round matchup between the Boston Celtics and New York Knicks. Who ya got? Let us know in the comments! CHAPTERS BELOW.

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CHAPTERS⬇️
0:00 – Tactical questions
9:22 – Storylines
16:41 – Celtics and Knicks x-factors
20:01 – Celtics vs Knicks predictions

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