OKC Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Playoff Primer

OKC Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Playoff Primer

Well, Grant, I picked the Nuggets to beat the Clippers in five games. Denver made me look like a fool, but I I had built up goodwill. I picked them to win the title when no one else did, and they went ahead and won it in 2023. I also picked them in 2024. That didn’t work out so well for your guy here. They now face the Oklahoma City Thunder. Uh let’s go through as our narratives, our tactical questions. Let’s begin there before we get to predictions and X-actor. So, tactically, what are you looking at with with this series? Uh a couple things for the Thunder. Um, I I wonder like they’ve gone with the two big looks. I think that’s really interesting. I It’s just like you almost have to have Hardenstein out there just for the size against Joic. But I do wonder how much we’ll see Chad at center looks that really strain Denver’s defense and force Joic to either just like, you know, pretend to guard a perimeter player or actually guard a perimeter player depending on who the Thunder put out there. Um, and have like major help responsibilities too. Um, if you can get away with chat guarding Jokic for long stretches, I think that really really benefits the Thunder. Not that they’re going to need a lot of benefits probably, but that’s that’s something I’m interested to see if if they try they being OKC. Um, just to see like, you know, do you or do you if and if that doesn’t work, do you then as the Thunder have to turn to some more like gimmicky stuff against Jokic when Hartenstein’s not on the floor? So I kind of had the same question with just like how much of the dual big stuff are we going to see from Oklahoma City and the Thunder again regular season it’s only a 27 minute sample size 11.5 net rating with C and Hartinstein against the Nuggets when at least two of Jokic Russ and Aaron Gordon are on the floor and I’m just curious with depending on how much Denver utilizes Russ do you think that makes it will that convince the Thunder maybe sometimes want to go to more of the dual big looks because that’s someone in theory yeah if you have Chad excuse me, Hartenstein on Joic. You could put Chet on Russell Westbrook and kind of just float around out there. Like that’s I’m I’m curious to see if they would go with that or if they view those looks, especially if Aaron Gordon isn’t on the court. Is that their opportunity to say no? Hey, like let’s let’s have our one big let’s have our one big setup going right now. I mean, and this isn’t this wasn’t my tactical pick for Denver, but I think we got to talk about it now. Is like is this a Russell Westbrook series at all? like can’t like if you can guard Russ with chat which turns cadet into just a rover like good luck. Like you just that’s just I mean I I and like the fact is Denver sort of has to play Russ and that’s a huge that’s a huge problem because you’re just the giveth and taketh away of it all. Like yeah I I hadn’t really thought about that one u but I think that has to be addressed. I hope that wasn’t your specific one. Um, well, also off the follow-up point on this is then for Denver, Christian Brown on Sha Alexander like that’s just done like lock in on that for the most part. What is the best option to go against JDub? And I watched back some stuff and it’s we saw MPJ, we saw Russ, we saw Pton Watson. Of course, I don’t like what is I think when you’re looking at okay, what MPJ brings you offensively that you want him on the floor so long as the fact that he’s playing right now basically with one arm is in is incredible. Yeah. And so do you want him to be in you probably don’t want him in situations where he also has to you need him for the three-point the scoring and then he’s going to find some time on JDub and now I’m thinking about it just does this feel like a Russ is going to have to be on JDub then we saw some of it during the regular season and the thinking here would be as untrustworthy as Russell Westbrook is on the offensive end it feels like Pton Watson is more of a wild card there so unless you’re going to like and you’re not going to want Aaron Gordon doing any of Maybe some Jamal Murray, but like this is I’m just I’m going through the list. I don’t know who the ideal like it’s not all about the single matchups. I get it. But it’s just Christian Brown locked in on Shay and then it’s okay. Well, like what are you doing with JDub? So mine’s related. Mine’s mine was just kind of like is Aaron Gordon gonna spend more time on JDub or Cadet? Because like you definitely don’t want like I don’t think you want MPJ or Murray on like either of those guys as like to the extent you can limit that. I don’t think it’s possible to really limit that. You’re going to have exposure with one of them defensively. So, do you decide as the Nuggets, all right, we just have to have Gordon on JDub because then it’s going to force a third person to do more of the offensive initiating, assuming Brown can hang with SGA a little bit. And maybe that’s how Denver like makes the Thunder offense like gum up a little bit is if you just use your other your only other really good defensive player on JDub. But like then it’s so you’re guarding chat with who? Like is that MPJ? I don’t like I don’t love that. Uh is do you try Russ out there? Do you use Murray on chat somehow? Like just invite you know duckins and that kind of thing. Um it’s just Denver just doesn’t have an the fact that we’re you’re bringing up Russ as like maybe you’re going to have to use him defensively. Like that’s that’s a that’s a problem. Yeah. Even with they definitely they showed another level defensively against the Clippers for sure. I even thought I mean this is more so Thunder related though. You were mentioning if you can have Chat Rome. We saw Harden on Joic in that Clipper series. We’ve seen JDub defend centers in the past. Is it is that like an a misallocation of resource if you’re like okay we’re when you want to go one big and Joic is on the floor it’s like we’re going to put JDub on Joic in the chat like he can be on Aaron Gordon or maybe it’s Russ. That’s a great wrinkle. That’s a fun like because yeah, I mean you could if you if you get who better than OKC to just have a a shooting guard guard Jokic and figure it out because they they had to play that way for a month or whatever it was. I mean, yeah, that’s another god, the Thunder have so many this is the the through line of this series for me is like the Thunder have so many options that like they they can approach this so many different ways tactically and I don’t feel like Denver has nearly that luxury. Denver can do like two different things and it’s like we’re not even sure about one of them. Who is your uh excuse me, what are you watching narratively from this series? What’s the biggest story line? Uh for the Thunder side of it, it’s this is going to be the case for a lot of the high seeds that have advanced, but it’s like can you take down the best offensive player in the league in Joic and and sort of like add a little tick mark, you know, next on the resume of like historic season, one of the best defenses ever. Like all these wins knocked Joic out without much trouble. like then you’re starting to build a case as you know for we’re going to have to talk about the Thunder if they go all the way and you know then beat Boston or Cleveland or whatever in the finals as like yeah this team actually was just one of the best teams we’ve seen in however many you know like just knocking Joic out would be a huge point of validation also just did they make like did the Isaiah Hartenstein acquisition end up like how this is a series we’re for that the thing that I don’t I think people be conditioned to look at and it’s not when Shay’s off the for it’s just the secondary offense even if he’s on the floor. I don’t know like this just doesn’t feel the series where I would glean enough from it because what can the Nuggets do that’s really going to throw Shay Gil Alexander. I think the Memphis probably like might have thrown more things at him than we’ll see Denver do where it feels like they’re going to be very locked in on one or two guys will have to be the focus there. So, but that is something to watch. like he JDub doing a lot better at creating for himself getting into the lane like when he gets in the lane that some of the change of pace and direction stuff there that matters but it’s just like this not the stakes don’t feel low for the Thunder if they lost this series I would have to look inward a lot it feels more so I look at kind of just okay like did the did they make the moves that like got them past a team that was bigger and could play physical like this is the team you did that like even more so than a Memphis it’s it’s the Denver it’s the Minnesota that no that’s a great point like the Thunder had to do what they did to play in series like this against, you know, to the extent there are players like Joic, you know, they’ve they went out and made the effort to like equip themselves to handle that kind of thing. Uh, so it will be a referendum on those moves. I think for Denver, like this is the challenge of of like the Thunder might just not be a fair measuring stick because they might be historically great, but if you go out quickly or it’s pretty clear that you just like this Denver roster even with Joic and even if Murray does play well, like just doesn’t have the options or the answers to beat a team like this, then it’s like, well, what do what changes can we realistically make, you know, in addition to figuring out who’s going to be our head coach next year and are who’s going to make the, you know, front office decisions? Like, do you start thinking about Gordon or MPJ trades or whatever? Like, but you have to view all that through the lens of like, well, like who could have beaten the Thunder? And the answer might just be nobody. So, like the push and pull of that is going to be interesting for me. I do think so. I look at it the same way, but I’m also looking at it from the perspective of all well, how valuable are Payton Watson and Christian Brown really? And I I focus more so I defensively, sure, you might learn stuff about them, but on the offensive end, when you’re looking at guys that are coming up on extension eligibility, like Christian Brown shooting under 20% from three of the not great, Bob, right? And so, how much do you pay him in an extension and is it time to consider, well, if you’re going to make if you’re moving one of the bigger contracts as standalone value, I don’t know that it has a ton, but now if you say, all right, like we’re willing to move one or both of these guys, like that changes a lot of your options. Not advocating for it necessarily, but I do think like this is kind of a series when you’re looking at some of the stuff that the Thunder might pull defensively or maybe even some of the lineups that they run out there where this might teach us a lot about well, how much should Denver value those two young guys specifically moving forward? Yeah, good one. What is your X factor for let’s go with OKC? Uh, I mean, it’s just that like my whole leadup to this has been like I don’t know if there’s a guy that that is like make or break for them that I don’t know what I’m getting. I I guess as we’ve talked about it, I would lean towards Jaylen Williams because one, he theoretically should be test, you know, tested as an offensive creator. We’ve we’ve said plenty of times as long as he’s out there with one of the good bigs, the offense is fine. But I think that’s going to be a pressure point. And then the potential to play like gimmicky defense with him guarding Joic I think is fascinating. So can he handle that? Is that a viable like fiveinut strategy per game for Denver for for OKC? And if it’s not then you have to like kind of readjust who’s going to be guarding Yic. So um I I think it’s him but it’s it’s hard to find one for the Thunder. Who who’s yours? I think I’m just going to go with Isaiah Hartinstein because it is hard to find one for the Thunder because he’ll determine maybe well how many dual big minutes are we getting? And then what does he just look like defending Nicole Joic? Can he stay out of foul trouble? Because you don’t even if he stays out of foul trouble like this is Chad doesn’t have the body type to where you want to see him play this that matchup in high volume, right? Yeah. I think actually odds are if Chad is is the guy assigned to Joic, it will just be as part of a gimmicky like you know fronting and and doubling from behind kind of thing cuz I mean Jokic will just put him in the basket, right? Like that that that that feels like the Thunder don’t have to give like a like a soft target like that and Chad’s like someone who we both think might win defensive player of the year at some point but it’s not because he like holds up in the post against 300 pounders, right? Uh and we’re just obligated. Aaron Wiggins is all he’s the forever factor. Yeah. Who’s your Xfactor for Denver? So, I went MPJ uh because I think he’s gonna because of the way the Thunderplay defense and because of how tiny the windows to score are like he just has to be like a hot potato like quick trigger every the second you’re open it’s got to go up and he’s got to be like a major spacing threat that has to be guarded like you know nobody gets the Steph Curry treatment but like you have to face guard him you know or you have to trail him everywhere you can’t help off of him if he can be like that and the injury makes it hard. Um he’s just not someone that’s going to create anything I don’t think against any of the Thunder’s defenders. So MPJ just has to be like, you know, making five, six, seven threes more than once and has to be a massive threat because and if he’s not, I just don’t I just don’t know what Denver does for a reliable offense. I think that’s a good one, but for variety sake, I’ll just go with Payton Watson. It’s how he doesn’t play a ton versus the Clippers. And in theory, that’s a team that I felt like he maybe should have played more against. What does that look like against the Thunder who like they don’t necessarily play ultra fast, but they can and they’re physical and sometimes they’re going to play small? And if you mentioned MPJ and then the shoulder issue, like if he does if he’s not able to hold up defensively, do you want him on the court? And if he’s not, well then Pton Watson’s like a name like if you’re going to throw him in or do you want Payton Pton Watson on the court to help insulate Michael Porter Jr. defensively. I’m curious to see what his usage looks like him is. That’s why he’s an X-actor for me because I honestly have no idea how much he’s going to play against OKC. Just just another one real quick. This might just be tactical, too. But like if Caruso can just blow up the the Murray Joic like handoff screen game, then it’s like Denver might score 50 points a night. Like they’re just like if he can because I don’t know, maybe Dort you might even say Dort could do some of this too if he’s just refuses to be screened. Like if if you short circuit any of the twoman Murray Joic stuff, I I just don’t know where the the you know, Joic may just figure it out. But like that’s that’s like almost fatal it seems like for Denver. What’s your prediction? So I think I I the last series I picked the Nuggets because of like Jokic period. You he’ll figure like like I just said he’ll figure it out. I’m gonna go Thunder in I’ll go Thunder in six. I just I just like I think the Thunder are overwhelming. I I think their defense is so good. They’re they’re so they can be so tactically diverse if they want to and it’s like who are you picking on? There’s no half the time we’re doing series previews, it’s like oh what about this weak point? Like I Okay, who’s the Thunder? Who are you going at on the Thunder? I just I don’t know. I’m gonna go Thunder in five because I think that there’s a real chance and this is not I was probably too down on the Nuggets entering their Clipper series and they did like Jamal Murray the 40 burger like coming up big there like they they did a bunch of different things. I think that we’re going to look back that there’s a real chance and I say this with all due respect to the Cavaliers and the Celtics and I did say this about the Celtics at the end of last year and we realized that we just overthought like this entire [ __ ] exercise that haven’t done it before. Yep. And this team is so good, so deep, so versatile. And in theory, they don’t have like a weakness. Maybe it’s the three-point volume, but Chet just gets them up. And then it used to be the secondary offense, and it’s well, you have Hartinstein, NJUB, and Chet. And now the Shay Gilis Alexander list minutes. They just don’t they don’t need to. Well, I guess against Memphis, they existed a lot, but that’s a different that’s a different reason why they existed a lot. And so I really just think that I’m tempted to go six like you did just because I have all the respect in the world for Joic and Murray and like this team’s like the Nuggets to their they’ve punched back when their back has been up against the wall here. I wrote them off leading into the Clipper series. I just firing your coach that close to the end of the season and your you know lead front office executive. It just felt like that team would be in shambles. Nicole Yok is the greatest basketball player alive. the Thunder just have it’s not that they just have more good basketball players because I think that you could get it’s they just have more players and more more optionality to the way that they they’re able to carry themselves and I think that’s going to be the ultimate difference here and look the things that I’ll say during the nonartenstein minutes the things that they might be able to do to Joic defensively we didn’t really talk about that there they might be the people that want Joic to be bad on defense or say like oh like you can’t like he can’t do this this is the team that I think could maybe exploit him a little bit and make it look more egregious than it actually is. I think that there’s a great possibility of that. I I’m glad you’re having that that overthinking it thing with the Thunder cuz I even it was Memphis. So like, okay, what are we really going to learn? But it’s like you just stack that series up against the whole season and what we kind of maybe thought going into the year and it’s like I I I have that exact feeling of like I kind of think the Thunder have some like inevitable vibes about them, you know? It’s they ranked fifth, this is per Bball index in like the total amount of value lost to injury this season and they just still ran the tables. Right. So, it’s just there’s just all these indicators that are pointing towards the Thunder are championship favorites and there’s just no one’s going to beat them. I think I like Boston or Cleveland would be a fun matchup. Either one of the finals, but I the Thunder are going to be there’s you couldn’t talk to me about the other Western Conference semi-finals. I’m going to pick the Thunder to make the finals if I had to do it right now. And uh I’m curious what a loss in the series would mean for especially if it happens in four or five and it’s not like I guess at the point differentials kind of like Nick’s piston zene. It’s all like, okay, it went like well that series lasted longer, of course. So, um, thunder in five from me. [Music]

Dan and Grant break down the second-round matchup between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets. Who ya got? Let us know in the comments! CHAPTERS BELOW.

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CHAPTERS⬇️
0:00 – Tactical questions
6:05 – Storylines
9:48 – Thunder and Nuggets x-factors
13:37 – Thunder vs Nuggets predictions

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