Thunder-Nuggets Predictions: Will Jokic & Denver UPSET SGA & OKC? | Nerd Sesh

Thunder-Nuggets Predictions: Will Jokic & Denver UPSET SGA & OKC? | Nerd Sesh

Let’s talk about a matchup that I’m very excited for, Logan. Nuggets Thunder. We have, of course, the 68 win OKC Thunder against the Nuggets who just fought their way out of a tough sevengame series against the Clippers. The Thunder certainly are viewed as the heavy favorites coming into this series. But they also have the very unique challenge of figuring out what they’re going to do with the best player on the planet and in my opinion the best offensive player ever opposite them in Jokic. How do you expect the Thunder to approach that challenge Logan? And how do you think their defense fares in that matchup? I think they can do a a pretty solid job. I’m going to put you on the spot real quick here Carson. Oklahoma City had the fourth best uh defensive rating of any Western Conference team versus Denver this season. Can you tell me the three teams that were better? Oh, that is an interesting question. Do we have the Rockets? You don’t have the Rockets actually. I think that Joic tore through the Rockets. I wonder if you get the Grizzlies cuz they played Memphis twice without Joic if I remember correctly. This is number one actually. Are the Clippers on here? The Clippers or not? That’s not a bad guess. It was pretty It was relative. Clippers played them really well and they guarded Jokic better than anybody this year. Well, the Timberwolves are probably here. Minnesota’s actually one spot below Oklahoma City, but very low. They held them to 113.5. This list is getting weird, man. This surprised me. San Antonio and Golden State are at two and three. I was thinking about guessing the Dubs. San Antonio also had a game where Joic That’s so weird because and so did the Dubs, but the Nuggets won that game. Even though like not only did Joic not play, I feel like nobody played for them in that game. Huh. It It’s strange, but Oklahoma City put up as good of a fight as you could have against Denver’s elite offense. And that’s really the matchup to watch. Denver against this elite Oklahoma City defense. I’ve said it throughout this year, but I think Oklahoma City has at minimum six alldefense caliber players in Chad Homegrren, Jaylen Williams, Lou Dort, Alex Caruso, Kesan Wallace, uh, and Shay Gilis Alexander. The guy that I’m most worried about in this series is definitely Jamal Murray for Denver. In the regular season this year, Jamal put up 21 points and five assists tonight on just 53.8% true shooting. and just it’s really tough and it’s going to be tough on this entire supporting cast against all of these guys who are great on ball defenders and can apply such elite ball pressure and just make life difficult. None of their motors ever stop. They’re really crisp on rotations and stuff, but they can all defend in isolation and they’re all in this exact archetype that really works against a guy like Jamal Murray who they’re going to make, you know, him handling the ball difficult. They’re going to contest every single one of his jumpers. And so what can uh Denver do to mitigate some of this? Well, I think Joic Carson has to be aggressive all series long in single coverage and I think he has to eat against Homegrren and Hardenstein in single coverage. That I can definitely see. I think Joic can shoot better than he did in the regular season against these guys. He only shot 29% from behind the arc. I definitely think that can improve. But against Oklahoma City in the regular season, he put up 256 and 12. Jokic I think is going to get his and I think he’s going to play make really well off of it. Outside of that, I think you just got to hope for good shooting uh series from Westbrook and Brown. Those guys are going to get open looks. I think Oklahoma City is going to be content to leaving those guys open. And I think you just have to really hope that they shoot well. But actually, like schematically, I’m trying to get the bigs out on the perimeter in pick and rolls and trying to get them to defend in space as much. As many opportunities as I can get Joic one-on-one against those guys, I’m also going to try to get opportunities where I can get them away from the rim where they’re less impactful, but also get them defending out in space against the my, you know, the Jamal Murray’s on my team and MPJ if I’m the Nuggets. And then I think you just need consistent highle play from all their role players, man. Like all hands on deck. They got to bring it defensively. Denver’s depth is the reason they won against the Clippers. Um but yeah, you just got to kind of got to hope that you get good shooting series from Gordon, from MPJ, from Westbrook, and from Brown. And I would give Pton Watson a look in this series, man. I think Peyton Watson could could give you some good minutes. And I’m not talking about a ton of burn, but I think I think 12 to 16 minutes a night or something along that. feel it out. I think is a is pretty reasonable for Peyton. And I just think his size and athleticism and energy could be disruptive in this series. But I don’t think I thought for a while in the regular season Oklahoma City would pretty handedly wipe Denver. I think this is going to be a really good series, man. I think it’s going to go seven games. I’ll say who I’m taking, but I think this series is going to go the distance, man. I think it’s going to be super competitive. It was a great regular season series between these two teams. They split their four meetings two to2 and it was a very bipolar experience for the Nuggets offense. Like in their wins they were humming offensively and in their losses they really really really struggled in terms of how I expect OKC to approach the Jokic problem. They’re going to put Hartinstein on him and they’re going to have Chad Hongren on Aaron Gordon so they can get their big physical post defender on Jokic and they can have their best rim protector in Chad roaming off and making plays at the rim, taking away cuts, doing all that good stuff. And I still think that they are going to double Joic a ton because even though Hartinstein is big, he really can’t do much of anything with Jokic in single coverage. You mentioned Joic’s production versus the Thunder this year. Obviously, like any Jokic box score stats are going to sound crazy. It was certainly below his normal scoring volume and efficiency. 24 and a half points per game, 57 and a half% true shooting, but he was able to create a lot of really, really good shots for his teammates, who I also thought did a nice job of cutting off of him when he was doubled. They did a nice job of like setting pinins to free up shooters in the corner when Joic was doubled. So, he created a lot of plays and part of that is something that the Thunder are willing to concede by design. Like they are willing to double aggressively and leave the Nuggets more questionable shooters. But in the Nuggets wins and overall in this regular season matchup, those guys shot the ball really well. Payton Watson, Christian Brown, Russell Westbrook combined to shoot almost 41% from three and they were taking a combined 11 three-point attempts per game. So, those guys were shooting more and they were shooting better. And the Thunder were willing to give them those open looks to take away Joic’s scoring opportunities, but the shooting of those guys, those role players, specifically the dudes who the Thunder are willing to help off of aggressively, like that’s going to be huge in this series. I mentioned how bipolar the Nuggets offense was in this matchup. In their two wins, they had a 128 offensive rating. In their two losses, they had a 96 offensive rating. And a big part of the difference there is just pure three-point shooting. Like in the wins, they were almost 49% from deep. They shot the lights out. In the losses, they were 24% from deep. They shot terribly. and they’re more reliant on the three ball against OKC than they are in their average matchup because OKC is going to pack the paint aggressively and they’re a great interior defense. So, the three ball is going to be more available for Denver in this matchup, especially for some of those more questionable shooters. And we’ll see how well they shoot it. That’s going to be a really big X factor for them. And I think the Thunder when they are doubling Jokic have to be crazy active. They have to be super physical with him. And the objective has to be try to force turnovers. I thought that’s what they did so well in their first matchup this year against Denver the season opener. They forced Joic into some turnovers. They forced some turnovers when the Nuggets were just trying to get him the ball to begin with. And then when they were doubling Joic and recovering to shooters, they ran those shooters off the line. They funneled them into help. And they just really made the whole Nuggets offense uncomfortable. Starting with forcing the ball out of Joic’s hands. I do think they have to close out on Christian Brown. They might have to close out at least on Russell Westbrook with how he shot the three this past series. At least when he’s in the corners where he’s most comfortable. And then they got to trust their defense in that scramble. They got to trust their rim protection and their athleticism to cause some problems for these guys when they run them off the line. But those are the players that are going to dare to beat them. Absolutely. And because of that, I don’t think this is going to be Joic’s most monstrous productive scoring series, just like last series wasn’t, but for different reasons. Like the Clippers did a lot of doubling and helping aggressively on Jokic, but they also had a dude who guards him better one-on-one than anybody else in Zubots. The Thunder don’t have that guy. So, if Joic does get one-on-one scoring opportunities against anybody, I think he’ll cook. I think he’ll have a much easier time than he did last series. I just don’t expect him to have many of those opportunities. The other key for him, I think if he can really get that three ball going, that would be huge. I don’t want him settling and living behind the three-point line like he did in the third OKC Denver game this year where he went two of 10 from deep and was really relying on that outside shot, which isn’t as consistently great as his paint offense. But you talk about wanting to bring the bigs out into space. Like if he can avoid having to deal with all of the traffic in the paint that he’s going to see and if he can just get some of that efficient perimeter offense, I think that that would be really big for him in this series. I do think in terms of Denver’s other key player offensively, Jamal Murray, this is a really difficult matchup. You mentioned his regular season production against OKC, not so good. He just had a really good series against the Clippers. But this is the best perimeter defense, not just in basketball right now, but that I’ve seen in my life. They are insane. And they have so many bodies they can throw at him who are going to play with such crazy energy and physicality, and they’re going to apply so much ball pressure. And that matchup for Jamal having to deal with that sort of perimeter athleticism and pressure does worry me some because we saw the Minnesota series last year where he wasn’t 100% but if you can expose his lack of burst and you can really keep him from creating separation, you can definitely give him some fits. And OKC is equipped to do that with Dort. And then when it’s not Dort on him, you can put Kase Wallace on him. you can put Caruso on him who I think should play a lot in this series. That’s going to be really challenging for him and that’s where I think you have to turn to the pick and roll game with him a lot because he’s not going to separate against these guys on an island. It’s going to have to be pick and roll heavy and he’s going to have to be trying to get to that pullup jumper. I do think you could see the Thunder switch some and if they do, I think even the bigs honestly do pretty well on Jamal. obviously a more advantageous matchup for him, but those guys can guard in space too, especially Cadet. And then I don’t think that they’re going to be switching coming into this series, but if they do, I mean, they’ll just immediately double Yic off the catch if they try to get him the ball with a mismatch, which he would have if they were to switch. But I think this is going to be a difficult series for Jamal Murray. I still think the Nuggets offense is going to do reasonably well just because I think they’re a top two offense in basketball, but OKC is the best defense we’ve seen in a long, long time. And they’re going to make life super hard on Murray. And they’re not just going to let Joic Cook in single coverage. And they’re going to dare other guys to beat them. And they’re going to put a ton of pressure on Denver to protect the ball. I think beyond their shooting, that is a massive, massive key for Denver in this series because OKC is going to be aggressive. They’re going to put pressure on both Jamal and Joic in their own ways to try to force turnovers. And when OKC is turning you over at a really high rate, they basically become unstoppable. Not just because the defense is so dominant, but because that leads into the their best offense when they’re getting out in transition. That’s a battle that you cannot let them win convincingly or you’re not going to win. Period. Yeah, I I agree. I on the other end of this, how often actually first question, we’re looking at the Denver defense, who do you put on SGA? Is it Christian Brown? It’s Christian Brown. How do you like that? I mean, we are bringing two up to the level every single pick and roll. I think that there will be a number of instances in which Denver flat out traps doubles SGA when he’s not even running pick and roll. Like they’re not going to let him cook Christian Brown in isolation, which he would do. Shout out to Christian Brown. I thought he just had a really good defensive series, especially in the second half against James Harden. But their entire objective is going to be force the ball out of SGA’s hands, force him to beat us as a passer and force the shooters around him to beat us. And it’s also just their defensive scheme normally to play with two up at the level and they’ve been executing it a lot better over the last couple weeks compared to what they were doing for basically the whole regular season. But Joic has been active up at the level. He’s got hands like he could make some plays. So obviously Denver is still not a good defense. They’ve been much more solid there and they have nobody who can guard SGA, but they’re going to guard him as a team. They’re going to help aggressively on drives when he does get past you. And it’s going to be all about force him to be a playmaker. How confident in are you in Denver’s defense bringing the intensity and effort every night? I feel good about them bringing the intensity and effort after what we saw in the Clippers series. Now, I think game one they might not bring it just because like they have what 48 hours to recover from a grueling seven game series where OKC has been resting for a week. I was surprised they didn’t get more time off. Yeah, I kind of thought they would get an extra day. We’re going right back into that one. But overall, I think they absolutely showed you what I’ve been wanting to see all year from Denver defensively in that series. just understanding they have some personnel limitations, but when they lock in and engage, they can be a respectable defense. That being said, I still don’t think they have good answers because even though I think like they’ll have the right strategy, OKC just has a lot of offensive talent. It’s not just Shay. And when Sheay’s scoring threat is so overwhelming that he’s drawing two to the ball so consistently, they’ve got a lot of shooting and they’ve got a lot of offensive talent that can take advantage of that. So, I don’t think they have a good answer for SGA. I think we’re pretty aligned with that. What do you do with JDub in chat? And how do you disrupt those guys alongside SGA without because like you said, I think you have to commit a ton of defensive attention to SGA and then that’s your route. Make life difficult on shooters and try to disrupt those guys as much as you can. Who are their matchups and how are you disrupting JDub and Chad? I’m not as worried about that. Like Chad is going to be a guy who I think the Nuggets have to live with getting some looks to execute their scheme. Like I think Ched is going to be able to get solid looks from beyond the arc. And I don’t think this is a matchup in which Ched is going to be at his best as like a self-creator. I feel like he normally thrives when there are slowfooted bigs who he can attack and uh I think that Hartinstein is going to be the guy matched up with Jokic. So I don’t know how many chances Chad is going to have to use his speed advantage in the half court. I think in the full court he’ll definitely get some chances out in transition. So Chad’s offense just like kind of comes to him. He’s not as much of a creator. There are spots where they run stuff for him, but I think he’ll probably have a good series and Denver might just have to live with that because you can’t cover everybody at once. You can’t be blitzing or bringing two up to the level with Shay trapping him and then also covering everybody on the back line. So, Ched is one of those guys who I think fits in. When it comes to JDub, yeah, I don’t think that they really are going to be able to guard him too effectively one-on-one either. So in the nonshay minutes, maybe they treat Jub like a superstar and maybe they’re blitzing him. They’ll probably bring two up to the level with him as well. But when he’s on the floor with Shay, you can’t treat multiple dudes like superstars at the same time. They’ll probably still bring two up to the level with him out of pick and roll, but they won’t be as aggressive with their coverages against him as they are with Shay. But I do feel good about OKC’s collective offense capitalizing on all the attention that Shay is going to draw. Like I think Chad is going to get good looks and he’s shooting the ball really well right now. Lou Dort just had a bad shooting series, but he was a 41% three-point shooter this year. And Hartinstein is an S tier connective playmaking big. So like if those pocket passes are there, if he’s able to slip passes out to Hartinstein, if SJ is able to get him in a position to play make out of those fouron threes, he’s really good at it. And the Thunder are the number one three-point shooting team in the league since January 1st by percentage. So, I think that they’re gonna get a lot of good shots. And I think that JDub is gonna kill it in his role. Like being that second creator when Shay is on the floor and then carrying the non Shay minutes. JDub is just playing his best basketball ever right now. I thought that he just had his best playoff series of his life was so so impressive against Memphis and the Thunder have just been killing it in the nonshay minutes for a long time now. Jub has been a big part of that. They were plus 31 in the nonshay minutes last series. I think that is a huge advantage. not just looking individually at some of the tactical stuff that we’re talking about on both sides of the ball for these teams, but how much does that depth advantage that OKC has play into your prediction for this series? It’s pretty massive. I mean, cuz I you look at the inverse of that and you think about the non-ic minutes that the Denver Nuggets are going to have to withstand and you just fear them getting drugged and so how do the Nuggets counteract that? They have to win the Jokic minutes by that much. And that’s what makes it really difficult, man. because I do trust Oklahoma City considerably more. You know, if it’s Kesan generating my offense off the floor, if it’s JDub generating my offense off the floor, like that’s I think the really the most scary part of this for Denver Carson is when Joic is off the floor trusting Jamal trying to get his own shot or MPJ or or Russ and it’s like I could just so easily see them getting swarmed by these other ball handlers and seeing the self-creation limitations of the supporting cast really really getting exposed. And I think that’s a massive advantage for Oklahoma City or the nonshooter aspect with Denver where I don’t feel like there’s a nonshooter for Oklahoma City. And I think it’s really important too, we’re talking about Denver shooting well. I think it’s really important that they shoot well too because Oklahoma City has such a massive advantage there where Denver could just get outshot. I do I I do look at it. I think it’s going to be competitive and like I said, I think it’s going to go the distance. The reason I say that is because I put so much stock into Joic being the best player in the world into Denver’s championship pedigree, but it feels like Denver’s fighting a really really uphill battle in this series. I just I think Oklahoma City is that damn good. I’m Yeah, I think I’m a little less confident than you in Oklahoma City’s offense, though, Carson. I could see them having a few down games where Denver’s defense really brings the intensity and where their perimeter shots a little bit off and maybe Jay and Chat don’t get it going. I’m just a little less confident in the supporting cast, I think, than you with Oklahoma City. And they don’t make open shots. That’s going to be a problem. I think Denver is going to struggle to keep them from getting open shots unless Sheay is sloppy as a decision maker and as a passer, which I don’t think he will be. I think he kind of got some of that out of his system early in the Memphis series and I thought he was much cleaner as a playmaker in uh the home stretch of that series and I just think there’s a lot of good shooters for the Thunder who are going to get good looks and have to because you can’t just let Shay destroy you as a scorer in this series. I think the difference in depth is absolutely massive. As you said, like when you go past the starting five for Denver, not even considering that like MPJ can be inconsistent, that Christian Brown can be inconsistent as a shooter. Russell Westbrook is just a total mystery box. He gave you a lot of good games in this past series, but he is very volatile. Pton Watson, really good defensive player. Like his energy. can be a real real problem as a shooter and can just be an exploitable piece offensively. Meanwhile, for OKC, it’s not just how great their starting five is. Like, off the bench, I’m getting Caruso, who has been phenomenal in the playoffs. I’m getting Kay Wallace. I’m getting Isaiah Joe. I’m getting Aaron Wiggins. Like, it’s such a massive difference in terms of two-way talent up and down this roster and the nons superstar minutes for both teams. like the Thunder could not possibly have a bigger advantage there. The Thunder this year were like a plus Net team with SJ off the floor and the Nuggets were what, like a minus 10 net team with Joic off the floor. So obviously the minutes in which the Nuggets are without Joic are going to be fewer in this series than they were in the regular season. But like he can’t just play 45 minutes every night coming off of a seven game series when OKC is going to be fresher. And I just worry about the burden that is on Denver starters. I think they’re going to have to play so much and they’re going to have to play so hard every night to cover up for some of their athletic disadvantages against an OKC team that is so fast and so feisty and so deep. I just think they could wear them down. And I do think the Thunder are going to be really good in the nonshay minutes and the Nuggets are going to be really bad in the non Jokic minutes. That’s difficult to overcome when I also think the Thunder at their best with all their best guys out there are better than the Nuggets at their best with all their best guys out there. It’s interesting to me you have this going seven. Like that’s a lot of respect for the Nuggets or maybe a little more for OKC. I just think some of these things are going to balance out. Like I think the Nuggets are going to get going in a few of these games. I think Oklahoma City will have a few off nights offensively. I think we’re for a battle, man. I’m I’m really excited. You know, we didn’t get this playoff series last year and um I’m excited that we are this year, man. Um who do you think is the key player for both teams? If you had to pick someone, Aaron G. Well, Jamal Murray probably. I was going to say Aaron Gordon just because I think Aaron Gordon is going to be so vitally important defensively and on the glass in this series. Like he’s Mr. Reliable though right now. That’s why I would say that it’s because I’m not I’m very confident that Gordon is gonna give me stability. I think it’s Jamal and MPJ. I think MPJ’s got to be great defensively and got to shoot the ball well, but it’s more so Jamal just because Jamal’s matchup is that much harder. And then for Oklahoma City, I would say JDub. I think JDub who is going to have that that that’s the battle that I would set the stage for for me in this series. What team is going to have the more reliable second option? I think JDub’s job is a little bit easier because I think that they’re going to get a lot of attention off of SGA, but his job still isn’t easy. Like I Gordon, I put a ton of respect on his defense and I and I know MPJ can battle, but Jamal’s job is just so hard. It’s every minute out there is going to be so difficult for him. If it’s Kesan, if it’s Caruso, if it’s Dort, you know, like it’s going to be hellish. So, I’d say for Denver, Jamal for Oklahoma City, I’d say JDub. What about you? I think that Jamal is a good choice for Denver. I think that they are going to need him to have a really good series if they want to win it. And this is obviously a really tough matchup for him, but they just need somebody else who can bring like that consistent highlevel offensive punch. My choice would probably be Christian Brown just because I think his play finishing off of Joic’s doubles is going to be really important. And then I also think his ability to at least like offer some resistance to Shay defensively is going to be important for them. Those are probably the two guys who stand out to me. And then for the Thunder, I’m just feeling really good about JDub right now. Like I feel like I know what I’m going to get out of him. I think Chet is going to be really important on both sides of the ball because I think he has to hit his open threes if that is just off the catch because they’re putting two on the ball with Shay or if he’s being used as a screener and popping like he’s got to shoot the ball well. And then defensively I think his job is really important playing that ROR role containing cuts helping on Joic postups. He’s very important on both sides of the ball. I would also say Lou Dort because I think his defensive job on Jamal Murray is really really important and then he’s got to reliably make outside shots offensively as well. So, at the end of the day, I just think OKC is a far more complete team. Like I think as a two-way team in terms of their depth, they’ve got real big advantages. I think in transition like they’re probably going to dominate this series. Even though Denver was a great transition offense this year, played with way more pace than ever before. OKC’s transition defense is just phenomenal. And then OKC is a dominant transition offense. And I worry more about Denver keeping up with their speed as a trans I’m glad you bring that up because I’m talking about things balancing out with one another. I do expect one or two games OKC rolls in just because I think they could get ugly and they could get ugly really fast if they’re, you know, if they play to their defensive ceiling where they’re if you’re turning the ball over, you’re not shooting well. You get sloppy or lazy at all. They will punch you in the mouth and you’re not just get out of control really really fast. I mean, we saw it in the first series where I think that we could have some games like that where you’re missing threes, you get long rebounds, they’re getting out on the break, capitalizing off of it, you’re getting a ton of live ball turnovers that they get out on the break with. Like, I think we’re in for a couple of games like that, too. But, like I said, I think that things are going to balance out and we’re in for a duel, man. I put some respect on I put I put a lot of respect on the Nuggets, man. I don’t think they’re going to go down easy. And the reason I say seven is just because I don’t see the Nuggets losing in five. I think they’re a better team than that. And I don’t see the Thunder being able to close out the Nuggets in Denver. And that’s why I say it goes seven. So, do you think that Denver is the best candidate in the West to knock off OKC? I think it’s Minnesota. Okay. I think it’s Minnesota, too. I think it’s interesting that you’re taking Denver to go seven then. I do think that Denver is definitely the offense that is best suited to produce against OKC and they have the best player alive factor which is obviously a big advantage. It’s just still not enough. I think that OKC is too good as a two-way team. So, I’m going to take the Thunder in six. I think it’s possible that we do say see like a game one blowout and I wouldn’t overreact to that because we’ve seen both teams land some big punches in this matchup in the regular season and like there will be a game or two where Denver’s offense is fully clicking and all of those role players are hitting their threes. But I think that there will be more games where OKC’s defense is able to slow them down a bit at least more so than Denver is on the other side of the ball and they’re able to get out in transition. they’re able to dictate things with their athleticism and their speed. I do think they’re the clearly better basketball team, but I’m really excited for this series. These are my two favorite players right now, SGA and Joic. I thought they were the two best players this season, and I’m very, very excited to see them do battle in this series. I think it’s going to be a whole lot of fun.

The nerds break down the keys to the upcoming playoff series between Nikola Jokic & the Denver Nuggets against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander & the Oklahoma City Thunder.

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