Houston Rockets offseason guide: SPECULATION GALORE?! | NBA on ESPN

Houston Rockets offseason guide: SPECULATION GALORE?! | NBA on ESPN

All right, a happy Monday morning. Hopefully everyone is doing great out there. We are going to do a Houston Rockets video. They became team number 22 uh to find themselves out of the postseason. Their terrific season comes in a disheartening end in a game seven at home to Golden State. And now we are going to talk about their off season. Their article along with the other 21 teams is up on ESPN espn.com. It’s free. All the articles are in one document. We will um add the other eight when we get through these playoffs here. And Houston is in a um interesting spot. I think when you look at the post Harden era, I feel like that’s feel like that was like 20 years ago. You went from 1720 and 22 wins to 41 last year and now 52. There is certainly that what is next mentality? how do we take the next step mentality and that’s going to be the biggest thing about Houston this off seasonason especially when they bas they check the bo they they check the boxes the superstar box among out of any of all the teams draft picks players uncontrollable contracts sizable contracts and we’ll go into that in a minute when you look at two picks uh they’ve got that Phoenix pick which right now is at number nine keep an eye on that next Monday and a the last pick in the draft, which is the second round pick from Oklahoma City. Free agents, uh, two key free agents. Fred Van Vleet, he’s got a team option. We’re going to talk about him at length as far as what the options are going to be. Stephen Adams, who was terrific in these playoffs. Keep an eye on what happens with Stephen Adams. Jeff Green, Aaron Holidayiday’s got a team option. Uh, Deshawn Tate, Jack McVey, Nefari, Dante, they’re two-way players. Van Vleet and Adams are the guys to circle this off season. As far as this group, as I said, there is going to be a lot of speculation, especially when you lose in the first round, especially when you saw maybe a little bit of your flaws as far as as an offensive team. Uh it would have been different maybe if you would have got out of this first round, but the struggles in game seven are going to have people calling for Kevin Durant. If Giannis ever became available, superstar level players here. They’ve got a defensive identity with Eay Udoka. They will have a top 10 pick from Phoenix. They have the core young core Shangon Jabari Smith Aman Aman Thompson Tar Een Jaylen Green Dylan Brooks Fred Vam not young core there are some guys who are better than Van Vleet last year’s lottery pick Reed Shepard we forget about him Cam Whitmore and then the big question as I said is this is is relying on continuity good enough to compete for a championship and that’s what the front office is going to have to analyze this off season. And when you do that, it’s a lot different than the regular season when rightfully they were conservative and they were like, “Let’s see where this roster grows. Let’s see them get in the playoffs setting.” It’s similar to what Oklahoma City did a year ago where they basically said, “Let’s see where our roster is.” And then they went out and got Isaiah Hartenstein and they got Alex Caruso and they resigned Isaiah Joe and and Aaron Wiggins. So I would and a little bit different situation because Houston’s not entering this off seasonason with cap space and uh Oklahoma City was last year. Your finances. Okay, now here’s where the Van Vleet uh quagmire I will come into play. So Fred’s got a 45 44.9 million player option, excuse me. It’s interesting the language in his contract. The language in this contract is five. There’s a five-day window after the final postseason game to exercise the option. That is much different than most players having a June 29th player option or team option here. Basically, if the contract’s not amended, we’re going to know by the end of the week what decision Houston is going to go with Fred Van Van Vleet. If they opt um if they exercise the option, they pick it up. There’s pros and cons to picking up the option and and declining the option. The uh pros is that you exercise the option, now you got a big tradable um trade chip, the $45 million contract to use in the offseason. The con is now you are $7.5 million over the luxury tax and you’re right at the first April. You do have some flexibility with 12 million in non-G guaranteed contracts, Aaron Holiday and Jock Lando. So there is some flexibility there if you are going to exercise the option. This is this is including your draft pick. The um the pros to declining if if if Houston declines the option, I would say there is a 95% chance that Fred Van Vleet will be back on a different contract. So the pros to decline the contract is that now you get them at a lower number. So maybe you do um so you’re declining at 45, maybe you do go down to 30 and you do three for three for 90 and the third year is partially guaranteed. So you basically make up all of what’s lost this year and then some more. Maybe maybe gets an extra $30 million down the road, something like that. So that’s that’s the pro because now it gives you like you chop 15 million now you’re operating well below the tax. You’ve got flexibility in a trade. You can do a lot of good things with that. The con is that because he’s signing as a free agent, he’s not trade eligible until December 15th. So now you’re basically your your sizable contracts are now diminished to Jaylen Green and Dylan Brooks. So that’s kind of how you look at the um the Fred Vanble Vleet player. I keep on saying player team option as far as what the options are going to be. As I said, the the front office priority, there’s two qu questions. Is there confidence that the current roster and a top 10 pick can develop into more than just a good regular season team? That’s that’s for people to debate, to decide. Do you feel like you have a closer? Do you have do you feel like another offseason of development of Aman Aman Thompson can get you there? Do you are you confident with Jaylen Green being that guy? his numbers took a significant drop in the postseason. Are you confident that uh you know Stephen Adams comes back? Because as I said, you had you have the makings of everything that if you want to go out and get a superstar, but as we saw in Brooklyn, there are landmines or obstacles when you go chase that superstar and you already have that ready intact roster. We saw what happened when when they went out and got Harden and they got and they traded I don’t even know how many draft picks four first round picks and then things went sideways and now you’re you’re left you’re eliminated you’re limited with your draft assets here. But as I said they’ve got draft equity. They’ve got five tradable first in the next seven years including this year’s pick which is Phoenix. They’ve got an unprotected first from Phoenix in 27 and 29. They have a Phoenix or Dallas. They’ve got their own first in 28, 30, and 32 that they can trade. They’ve got controllable contracts with Jabari Smith, Tar East, Reed Shepard, Cam Whitmore, and Amen Thompson on first round rookie contracts. And then, as I said, they have those sizable contracts. Shangon is not going anywhere. But him and Jaylen Green’s poison pill restriction get lifted um July 1, and they have the Dylan Brooks contract. He’s got two years left at 22 and 21. 22.1 and $21 million. There’s a priority to retain Steven Adams. I mean, the sample certainly we saw in this Golden State series and even in the regular season plus 30 points per 100 in the regular season and they were before last night plus 31 per 100. The Adams Shangon pairing certainly worked during the regular season small sample size and and certainly during the um during the postseason here. So, that’s that’s your biggest question here is um as far as do you need to go out and get a superstar. I would be cautious to that. I think if you’re going to go out and get a Kevin Durant, you’re basically it’s a it’s a watered down package. Um would you give them the their ninth pick back in the 20 and their unprotected pick in 27 and then Jaylen Green and you know fillers? I would I wouldn’t touch Jabari Smith and I wouldn’t touch uh certainly uh Emmon Thompson and I’m not touching ShenGun. Um you know that’s you basically have to kind of draw a line in the sand as far as what’s available and what’s not available. Now Giannis becomes available that’s a different ball because Giannis is on the contract for the next three years. Durant older player you basically have to extend him another two years. There’s a lot to think about there, but they do have, as I said, they do have the options to go out and do that. If they don’t, if they don’t want to do that, they’ll still be one of the top teams come west in the Western Conference and they still have their they’ll still have their assets and they’ll get a really good player in the draft and you go from there. Extension candidates to watch. Um, but but last year they signed Shangon and Green. This year they’ve got Tari E and Jabari Smith. It’s going to be interesting because eventually like when you draft well and this is the penalty you pay your finances start to go higher because of you have to reward players who are on these rookie contracts. So last year you had the two players. This year you have um you have Een and Jabari Smith. Certainly Jabari Smith Jr’s role changed when you went to when you put Thompson in the lineup and certainly when you went to the big lineup of Adams and Shangon. Where does he fit in? Are you willing to pay Trey Murphy type money 4 for 112 for a guy that comes off the bench? And Trey certainly came off the bench in in in New Orleans and will likely start. But that’s where I see his number in that 25 to$26 million range. And then Tari East, it’s like sixman. What do you pay a sixth man on your roster? A good sixth man. That’s going to be the the interesting thing. Both guys here. Both guys both guys are we’re gonna that will take it to October 21st, which is which is the deadline. They’re not max guys. Um they’re worthy of an extension here. And as we see with rookie extensions, it goes to the deadline, which is October 21st. So that is it in a nutshell. I think in Houston, you have to feel pretty good. You listen, you win game five and six and then come home and lose at game seven. Uh I’ve been there. We did that in Chicago in 2014. We loed down 3-1 in New Jersey or Brooklyn. We won game five at home, game six on the road and basically came home and gave up a stinker. And what happens is you exert so much energy and you do feel like you basically had won the series after game six and then you come home and you’re flat and we saw Houston certainly flat. So, a lot of decisions to make this off season. You don’t have to do anything if you don’t want to. you could just basically roll back this roster and have the ninth pick in a draft and and figure out what flexibility you want with Fred Van Fleet. But if I said if you do and you want to go out and get that closer and Kevin Durant, you do have the trade assets to do it. But I would certainly caution as far as not giving up everything that you have. Have a great day. We will talk soon.

ESPN’s Bobby Marks talks through his 2025 offseason guide for the Houston Rockets including two key free agents this summer.

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