NBA Draft Lottery Preview 2025 | What Raptors Fans Actually Need to Know

NBA Draft Lottery Preview 2025 | What Raptors Fans Actually Need to Know

The 2025 NBA draft lottery is nearly here and the Toronto Raptors have a chance still of landing that first overall pick. So, in this video, I’m going to give you everything that Raptors fans need to know ahead of May 12th. Let’s get into it. Hello everybody and welcome back to MHR Sports, the YouTube channel that is completely dedicated to providing you with Toronto Raptors content. Make sure you subscribe to the channel to keep up to date with all that content, especially with the lottery less than a week away. Hey, there’s going to be tons of great content coming from that. And make sure as well you like this video if you do enjoy along the way. But yes, going to give you all the information that you need to know ahead of May 12th when the NBA draft lottery is scheduled for 2025. The Raptors are one of the 14 teams that will be looking to secure that first overall pick. But it’s not all lost if the Raptors don’t end up with that first overall pick. There are a lot of different ways the Raps can still get something great out of this draft lottery. We’re going to cover that here in the video. Starting with the process of which the lottery takes place. So yes, there is still a pingpong ball system that takes place. It takes place behind the scenes and there are 14 ping pong balls and four of them are going to be drawn. Now in previous iterations of the draft lard, you might have seen where each of the balls represents a team 1 through 14. Hey, there’s 14 teams. That’s not exactly how it works. Each team is essentially assigned a certain amount of number combinations based on those 14 ping pong balls that are numbered one through 14. And really only the top four picks are a lottery here. Any of the teams that are in the NBA draft lottery can move into the top four. Now, each team has very different odds of landing in that top four, but each team is assigned a certain combination of numbers based on those 14 ping pong balls. Once the top four of the draft has been ordered and decided, the rest of the teams are just going to be ordered based on their record and the reverse standings. So, that’s how it works. It’s not as exciting or as glamorous as it might have been in previous years where you see the ping pong balls getting drafted potentially, but hey, it’s still an exciting endeavor for fans to entangle with because there is the prospect, as always, of landing that first overall pick. They announced the pick order in reverse order from 14 down to one. It’s very often that the team with the 14th worst record is the team that ends up in the 14th position, but the Raptors aren’t in the 14th spot here. the Raptors where they situate here, they have the seventh best odds of landing the first overall pick. What exactly does that mean? It means that the likeliest spot for the Raptors to end up is the eighth overall spot. Because with every team’s having that lottery system of ending up in the top four potentially, there is a likelihood of getting bumped a spot because a team rises up unexpectedly. Maybe go back to last year where the Atlanta Hawks had like a three or 4% chance of landing the first overall pick and they got it. They got to they got it and they drafted Zachary Reese a with that pick who uh definitely had a good season. Not a rookie of the year team. Definitely had a good season but not your typical first round pick caliber player. Like when Zachary Reese a was selected by the Hawks, Hawks superstar Trey Young was saying he’ll be a great role player for us which is not typically the term you assign a first overall pick. That’s like your your franchise’s superstar. That is your generational talent you’re going to build around. Well, 2025 is a lot different than 2024 because there is that generational talent available with the first overall pick. So, what are the chances the Raptors actually end up with that first overall pick? Why is the most likely spot for the Raptors end up actually the eighth overall pick? Well, let’s look at the exact percentage chances the Raptors have for each of these spots. They have a 7.5% chance of landing that first overall pick and they have a slightly higher percentage chance of ending up in any of the top four spots. 7.5% for first overall, 7.8% for second overall, 8.1 for third, and 8.5 for fourth overall. Now, the little quirk with this lottery system, with any team being able to move up into the top four, is that the Raptors actually cannot, under any circumstances, it is impossible for the Raptors to end up with the fifth overall pick or the sixth overall pick. That with the seventh best odds, they have a 19.7% chance of landing that seventh overall pick. And the most likely outcome is the Raptors ending up with the eighth pick at 34.1% odds. Important to note, 34.1% odds means that it’s more likely than not they won’t get the eighth pick. It is just the most likely outcome out of the draft. Based on these percentages, they have a 12.9% chance at the ninth pick, 1.3% chance the 10th pick, a microscopic chance of getting the 11th pick. Like microscopic, not even a 0.1% chance of doing that. They cannot get the 12th pick. 11th is the furthest they can fall. And again, it is very unlikely they would do that. also very very unlikely they even end up with a 10th pick. So the expectation is the Raps will end up in the 7 to9 range of the draft. But there is still that 31.9% chance they do end up with one of those top four picks. And it’s important to remember when the Raptors selected Scotty Barnes with the fourth overall pick. They were also in the seventh spot in the reverse standings. And there’s been a bit of a track record that teams that finished seventh worst have had a lot of lottery luck in recent times. What does that mean for this year? Absolutely nothing. It’s just complete coincidence. All of this is statistical probabilities based on the all of the combinations of numbers that can be selected from the pingpong ball lottery system. That’s how all of this works. it’s predetermined set of statistics that give us the exact percentage chance of the Raptors ending up in each specific position. So in 7.5% of the combinations that are possible from the lottery ball system, 7.5% of the time the Raptors end up with the first overall pick. So, for all the people, like I’ve seen people on on Twitter uh making videos about this on YouTube where they run a certain amount of simulation to see how many times rabbits end up in each specific position. Like, sure, you can do that for fun, but it doesn’t really mean anything because like the more you run a simulation, the more likely you are to end up with the exact same percentages that have been already outlined for us here on the probabilities of Raptors ending up in each position of the draft. So there’s no s in doing these simulations again because we know the percentages beforehand. We don’t need to run these simulations to see, oh, how often will they get the first overall pick when I run 100 simulations? Well, you know, 100 simulations is a pretty small sample size. The more simulations you run, the more likely you are to have a 7.5% outcome of the Raptors getting that first overall pick. But all these numbers, what do they actually mean for the basketball? What do they actually mean for the Raptors on the court? Because like I said, there is a generational talent available with the first overall pick, but there is a pretty large probability the Raptors don’t end up with that first overall pick. So, what sort of talent is out there for the Raptors potentially not with the first overall pick. So, going into next season before the draft even takes place here, I think the Raptors will expect themselves to be a playoff team for next season. They will want to start winning. They will want to be in the playoffs for next season. So naturally, it’s already like a pretty solid starting five. What sort of players can actually crack that starting five if the Raptors select them? So obviously, Cooper Flag, the generational star, first overall pick, that guy’s starting for your team. No if ends or buts. You’re finding way for that guy surely to be in the starting five for your team. If that means moving pieces, so be it. If that means demoting somebody to the bench, so be it. Cooper Flag has got to start. Before we get into conversations, well, Cooper Flags, this small Ford, power for Ford, we’ve already got a lot of Fords. No, to a certain extent, talent over fit. I think that when you’re in similar areas of players, similar areas of talent, you got to prioritize maybe fit a little more. Like maybe the talent’s here for one guy and the other talents here, but this guy fits a lot better. that might swing it a little bit where you just go for that guy and don’t have to worry about the reshaping of the roster and the roster construction issue that come with that. But for the first overall pick, you ignore that. The second overall pick is likely going to be Dylan Harper, point guard, shooting guard. That’s also a player absolutely I think is going to be in the starting five for the Raptors if you select it. That’s a guy you have to make room for. That is a guy that is going to be starting for the Raptors. Other than that, I don’t see anybody in these lottery positions that I really, really want to start. Like Ace Bailey, very good player, likely third overall pick at this point. Things can change, of course. Not sure he cracks the Raptors starting five as it’s currently built. If RJ Barrett gets moved, maybe, but at this present point, the way I see the starting five of Quickly, Barrett, Barnes, Ingram, Purle, probably see Ace Bailey as a sixman for that group. Other than that, top three, I don’t think anybody else starts for this team. I don’t think that’s a negative at the players. I think it’s a positive of the talent the Raptors currently have on their teams, but there’s still a lot of talent that could play very important bench roles for the Raptors moving through the near future. Where the Raptors are likely to end up based on these percentages is the seventh, eight, ninth spot in the draft. And around that spot in the draft, somebody like Common Malawash is going to be potentially available center coming out of Duke who I’ve already talked about in a video on this channel who would be the perfect backup center for a guy like Yakob Purle. So, as far as like starting level players for the Raptors this present point, there might be only two, but that doesn’t mean any of the other players the Raptors could end up with based on their position going into the draft. It doesn’t mean that those guys aren’t going to be crucial for the Raptors as they look to playoffs for next season. As far as the lottery gods, whatever you want to call it, look, the Raptors tanked. They got a bottom seven record. It’s out of their hands at this point. Whatever happens happens. Hopefully, the Raptors move up as much as possible. But no matter where they end up, there’s going to be a good player available that is going to be able to help this Raptors team. As long as it’s not like 10th or 11th, because then that’ll be really unfortunate. But hey, top nine pick. There’s there’s there’s plenty of talent available that are going to help this Raptors team. But it’s always a nervy occasion for the NBA draft lottery. And hey, we can share those nerves together. I’m going to be live right here on Amateur Sports when the draft lottery is taking place so we can sweat it out together, get the live reactions together, and I can tell you about what sort of players the Rabs will be looking at in those positions. And no matter where they end up, I think you’ll be excited about what those prospects may look like. So, join me live on Amateur Hour Sports for the NBA Draft Lottery watch party. I’ll be live 30 minutes before the event takes place. Hope to see you there. Hope to see you for more content here at Amateur Sports. Subscribe to keep up to date with everything we have.

The 2025 NBA Draft Lottery (May 12th) is nearly here! In this video, we cover everything that Toronto Raptors fans need to know before the event. What are Toronto’s chances at landing the first overall pick and securing Cooper Flagg? How many franchises altering players are available? How deep is this class?

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0:00 – The 2025 NBA Draft Lottery is nearly here
0:58 – What is the NBA draft lottery process?
2:32 – The odds around the Raptors’ picks
5:33 – The lottery is purely luck from predetermined statistics
6:53 – How many “superstars” are in this draft class?
9:20 – How good of a class do we have?
10:06 – May the lottery gods bless us

This is Amateur Hour Sports. On this channel, Jacob Gramegna analyzes and breaks down the latest on the Toronto Raptors NBA team from trade rumors to post-game reactions, analysis, and much more. By subscribing to this channel you will be there first to watch and enjoy 3-4 videos a week all focused on this team and on game days Jacob goes live on the channel for a watch party where he interacts with chat, answers your questions, and analyses the game as it happens with play by play and commentary. Join the Amateur Hour Army today by subscribing and consider becoming a member to give extra support to the channel and help create better content more often.

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