Houston Rockets: Trading for a star, VanVleet contract, and more | 2025 Offseason Preview | Podcast
Hey everyone, welcome to the show. I’m Yosi Goslin, NBA salary cap analyst. You can find all my videos on YouTube, The Audio, Spotify, Apple, all under my name, Yosi Goslin. You can also follow me on Twitter and Blue Sky for all sorts of salary cap transaction analysis as they happen. uh Third Apron, that’s my newsletter where I get to even deeper analysis on the cap and you can see all my salary cap information on each team on capshets.com. Today, uh we’re going to continue my offseason series. After this, I’ll have done half the teams in the league and hopefully I could do every single one of them. I think I’ve been pacing this well. Uh just want to remind everyone that I am going to be instructing a sports business classroom this summer in Las Vegas summer league. uh that is an educational networking program for people trying to break into the industry and I’ve got a promo going on if you uh they still have a lot of uh slots left for people who want to uh sign up. If you use the code third apron, you will get a lifetime uh free pass for Third Apron. Uh there’s more description on that in the description. Uh today we’re going to talk about the Houston Rockets, a team that I was I was preemptively excited for about them last year just knowing that they were going to be in this situation that they are in now. And it’s they’re now out of this rebuild. They’re about to it’s like on the cusp of the Yeah. the no longer rebuild. They’re into this competitive shift. Very exciting times to be a Rockets fan. And joining me to discuss them, he covers all things rockets on rocketswire.com and you can hear him on the Loggerline podcast. Ben Dubose. Ben, how are you? And just a general feeler. How are you feeling about the team after this season? Um, doing well. Thanks for having me. You can’t argue with 52 and 30 and number two in the West. For a team that went in with an overunder at 43 and a half in the macro, they’re ahead of schedule. They did overachieve. It goes without saying that game seven was a downer, but I think the way they went out, it’s more a sense of resignation for me and I think the fan base than, you know, anger or frustration because underneath it all, aside from the whole timeline narrative, there’s been this issue all year when it comes to half court offense for this team. And I guess the youth plays into that some as well. But this is a team that was middle of the pack offensively and that was propped up by transition play and offensive rebounds. The issue that’s been underlying all along is where do they go to get a bucket late in a half court game and in game seven with everything on the line I had 74 points with two minutes and 15 seconds left. And it wasn’t like you know a 2018 outlier game seven where you shoot O of 27. No, they were three of 14 from three. The biggest difference was that they couldn’t even get threes up because they had to rely so much on the big lineups. Steven Adams and all Shenon Amen Thompson also not a spacer. The floor was just a mess. They couldn’t get open threes. Golden State just squeezed them. And it’s sort of fitting for a Rockets team that, you know, in the aggregate it was a very good year. Uh defensively, all of that translated top five that held up. Al Shenon in the playoffs did it even more than I think people expected defensively. So all of that’s a good sign. But offensively in the half court, if you dig below the overall numbers and look into, you know, stats that sort of segment out how they operate strictly in the half court, try and strip away the transition points, the offensive boards. It was always going to be tough to see them beating a good team four time four times out of seven because of that. And ultimately that’s what caught up with them against, you know, a well coached Warriors team led by Steve G. Yeah, I can’t really take the playoff exit as something that should be super disappointing or right they I don’t think anyone expected them to be the two seed. I was a lot higher on them last year. I thought they would be in like a playing position last season and they kind of started showing that towards the end with that big stretch they had. Uh couldn’t quite get there and for this season I was even higher. I thought they’d be yeah like like just above the playing like a five or six seed and I think most people had them to be like seven or eight seed like in the playing mix. No one a lot of people just couldn’t see the Rockets make quite that jump yet despite the big run that they had out of the previous season. A lot of people didn’t know what to make of that and getting the two seed. I’m I’m a little I’m still not sure exactly how what it like where exactly they stack. obviously losing in the first round. Uh I I think most people if you if you were told that the Rockets would make the playoffs, I don’t think anyone would have had them winning the first round. So a lot of it I you know big credit to Eay Udok. I just did a fantastic job there. And and you know I’ve talked about the Rockets in the past. We’ve discussed about they’ve they’ve drafted pretty well. like they I wouldn’t I think like after this season maybe it’s not like quite as uh impeccable as like it kind of seemed last year but a lot of that kind of has to do with just the playoff which again like I think we got to like take we can’t take that too uh too seriously like their first playoff performance a lot of these guys weren’t they weren’t supposed to you know play out play like you know they’re not supposed to play like all that well uh but they still have their surplus of draft picks so let’s just kind of get into what you you know the big aspect of the Rockets off season might be because everyone’s pegging them as the potential next uh the destination for a star. It’s already happening. Uh this was something I alluded to last year especially because with all these players they have they they are starting to get closer to that situation. They’re not 100% there yet, but they’re getting a lot closer to this, you know, they can’t really pay all these guys. So something is going to have to happen eventually. So, as I look at the roster and their prospects of trading for an all-star, uh, whenever everyone circles them as a Giannis team, I think it’s more so they’re looking at everything the Rockets have in a vacuum where if you’re a team and you have an all-star and you want to trade them somewhere, yeah, you want to trade them to the Rockets because you want everything that you like everything they’ve got. You theoretically want everything. You want all the players, you want all the picks, including those Suns picks. So, what I’m more interested in is where do the Rockets draw the line? What is actually kind of like a reasonable offer? And I suppose like even to start, I suppose like how aggressive do you think they will be? And then who do you think they’re going to prioritize to keep? Say moderately aggressive and let’s let’s start the negotiations here. Amen. Thompson is off the table. I feel very confident in saying that I don’t care if it’s Giannis or any name. They are not going to trade him in Thompson. They genuinely believe that he will be a top 10, top 15, all NBA level player who can be the first or second best player on a championship team. Now, you can disagree with them on that assessment, but that’s how they view him. Obviously, he played well in game seven. that further boosted his stock internally seeing how he performed under the bright lights and I just don’t see a world where Amen Thompson is getable. So let’s start our discussions there. He’s not even going to be a part of this with Alpen Shenon. I wouldn’t call him untouchable but it would be very difficult to move him especially when the perceived limitation which was supposed to be the defense. How is he going to hold up in space when teams target him more in the playoffs? Can he function alongside another big man? We know what Emeoka did in Boston with Al Horford and Robert Williams. We found out in the playoffs watching Alen Shingun next to Stephen Adams, he can and he’s on a good contract. He’s just 22 years old. I don’t think he’s quite as untouchable as a men Thompson, but it would take the perfect guy. And that’s where you have to also think about building around a men Thompson. So, everybody says that their young guy is going to work on his jump shot, and a men certainly will, but let’s be honest, a man is a non-shooter right now. It’s not part of his bag. And in terms of his future, if he develops a reliable jump shot, a reliable three-point shot, you take that as a bonus when it comes. You don’t build around that as the expectation. You build around what he’s shown you to this point. And with that in mind, you know, we’ll see. Is he a point guard? Is he a wing? You know, is his handle going to come along enough to where eventually he supplants Fredbin Fleet and becomes a full-time one. Time will tell. But regardless, he’s not going to be a five. And if you have a men somewhere between one through four as a non-shooter and you have Alper and Shingon, how many nonshooters can you really have? Giannis has made some strides, but I’m not sure if a lineup where three of your five are a men, Giannis, and Shingun is going to get you the most bang for your buck. It’s not going to be bad because all of those guys are incredible talents, but in terms of is it worth it when the bar is legitimate championship contention, you know, I heard um Zack Lo and Howard Beck earlier this week had a good discussion on their show talking about could the Rockets get Giannis without touching um men or Shingun. And so they were kicking around basically the other five of the core seven obviously that’s Jaylen Green, Jabari Smith, Tari E, Reed Shepard, and Cam Whitmore. And then the future picks they have mostly from the Phoenix Suns, but also a few of Houston’s own picks and one each from the uh Brooklyn Nets and Dallas Mavericks. Could you get a deal done without a men or Shingun or Giannis? And they came to the conclusion maybe. But then that’s where, you know, not only is it a little bit iffier from Milwaukey’s perspective, but also for Houston, if you are emptying the cupboard, which you might have to do if you’re not, you know, giving one of your true blue chips, which is a Men or Shenon, you need to feel really good about that fit. And I’m not saying amen, Giannis, and Shingon would be a bad fit, but with the obvious spacing limitations, is it a good enough fit to be in that OKC tier? I don’t know. I’m not saying it’s not, but it does give me a little bit of um a little bit of pause. So, that’s why, you know, I think the Rockets will listen. They love Giannis’ talent. They’re not idiots, but I don’t think they’ll be super aggressive in going after this. I think they’ll only do it if it makes sense on their terms and if it still gives them some optionality moving forward. I really think the ideal trade for this team, and it’s probably not going to happen this off season, for over a year now, there are two guys that have consistently been told to me that are at the top of the Rockets list, and those are Devin Booker and Donovan Mitchell. And the reason why is that you can slide them into exactly the formula that they’ve been building under eBay for two years. And basically, it’s like a more consistent version of Jaylen Green. And that’s why those two guys. Now, the Devin Booker one is the most interesting because obviously Houston has all those future Phoenix picks. Maybe it’s not this off seasonason, maybe it’s a year from now, but at some point the Suns may have that, you know, come to Jesus moment where they realize what they have to do. And so, I think the Rockets, they want to preserve their optionality for that. I’m also keeping a little bit of an eye on the Mitchell situation in Cleveland. Certainly not this off season, but if the Cavaliers go out sad, if they lose this round to the Pacers, and let’s say they underachieve next year, and then you get to the 2026 off season, and he’s one year from becoming a free agent because he has a player option in 2027, that situation is not as locked in as you would think for a guy that’s, you know, the best player on a 64- win team or whatever it was. not gonna happen this off seasonason. Doubt it happens during next season no matter what it is. But, you know, 2026 offseason, I don’t think it’s unfathomable. And so, I still think those are the two guys in particular that the Rockets are most monitoring because they can drop them into the formula. And I don’t think, you know, a lot of people will say, well, you’re talking about the 2026 offseason. That’s a ways away. Well, no. The Rockets have the luxury of time. They feel like with the floor as high as it is right now and being able to compete, they’re not going to force a deal in the 2025 offseason, unless it really makes sense for them. If it’s something that’s sort of moderate but doesn’t clearly move the needle, they’re okay biting their time and seeing if a fit that’s that’s better like a Booker, like a Mitchell ultimately comes available. So, that’s where I’m starting from. it’s not impossible for the timetable to get shifted up or maybe they gamble on somebody that’s available this off seasonason like Giannis because combination of the talent is so clear and the deal is to their liking but I think in a perfect world Mitchell or Booker are the types of guys that they’re looking for and at some point I do think there’s a chance they could get one of those guys it’s just probably not going to be the 2025 offseason. So I’ll start with your first point. I agree. I don’t think they’re going to trade Almond Thompson and I don’t think they should. I obviously reached Shepard isn’t in that realm at all, but I also think it’s too early to trade him. Uh so I’m kind of I’m I’m in that area where like I would I would try not to trade either player. Even if including them, particularly Almond, significantly lowers everything else you could put on the uh you you put in the offer. if it means you get to keep most of the other guys, most of the picks, I think it’s just too early to move on from either of those guys. So, I’m with you there. They’re going to keep bombing for sure. Um, to the point that the second point, yeah, I I kind of feel like a lot of the Giannis stuff, it’s mostly just a reaction to look what the Rockets have. If Milwaukee could get their hands on all this, then great. That would be the the best case scenario for the Bucks. So, I’m I kind of feel at this point that yeah, it doesn’t really make sense for them to give up everything. I don’t because then what do you what do you have left to do after that? If you have Amanianis, uh, you know, maybe a couple other guys, is is that really like a top five or six that you feel comfortable with? Does it address everything? Not really. It doesn’t help with some of those offensive issues that they still have. So the the bigger issue though I think is like even if you want to look at the you know the downside of each guy especially after the playoffs like you can you know you can really dissect Shenon like you know great offensive hub great rebounder uh is he really a viable center uh for a deep playoff run with his lack of rim protection. Jabari just seems very average. Is he going to become like a can he become like a specialist from three to really boot like have an impact? We know the story on Jaylen Green. Like is he going to can he actually be maybe an all-star guy or is he going to top out to be like, you know, like a bee type or something like that? So when if if the value on these guys isn’t good enough where they’re not adding enough value on their own to get you closer to these types of packages, then I just don’t really think it makes sense to just give every like put them all together in the same offer uh to get that one guy you want. So if for so and that’s I’m guessing that might be what it takes to get in Giannis right now. So, I I after looking more into it, I am a little less uh like I feel like it’s a little less likely among like the contenders for Giannis, the teams with the most viable offer. I feel like they’re kind on the lower end of that now. And you mentioned the guys that make I think a lot more sense and probably would cost a lot less. Uh you know, Deon Booker, Donovan Mitchell, Devin Booker. I feel like the Suns are probably going to, you know, they’ll trade Durant, shift the roster around Booker, see how they do, right? If something changes, then maybe at the earliest, that would be next year’s trade deadline. Would cost a lot less to get Booker to the point where they should have enough left to do something else or at least to keep a reasonable level of depth where they could do something in the future or just simply you, you know, draft to add more depth later. So that’s just the big concern. I don’t think the Rockets are going to do anything that guts the team even if it’s even if like you know Giannis, Jaylen Brown, whoever it is might be available to them. Yeah. And the phrase Rella Stone used at his end of season press conference with us earlier this week was the bar is really high. And that’s what I think a lot of people are missing when you’re 52 and 30 as is number two in the West. And because you have a younger roster, you should improve some just organically because majority of your rotation is comprised of guys that should get a little bit better year on year. You really can drive a hard bargain when it comes to who you trade for because if it gets you from, you know, 52 wins to 55 56, well, what does that really matter in the grand scheme unless it gets you a title? Like you’re already pretty damn high. So that’s why I think, and again, it’s not me ruling Yiannis out. That would be silly, but they’re not going to trade for a guy if it doesn’t complete the puzzle because just getting a few more wins when you’re already set up at a 52 win baseline and should get a little bit better as is. The goal is not just to get a little bit better and to, you know, create some buzz on social media and sell a few more tickets. Now, the goal is to actually get to that OKC tier where we’re talking about 60 plus wins and being in the inner circle of contenders. And it’s a harder it’s harder to get there with one trade than you would think. It’s not impossible, but it’s it’s a high bar to clear, especially when the baseline is already pretty high in assists. Yep. I think and I still think there’s still a good amount of upside with a lot of these guys. I’m a little higher on uh some of the trio I just mentioned, the recent lottery picks. So, I I’m my feeling is for the time being they’re going to run it back, quote unquote. Just kind of stick to what they’ve got. Obviously, whatever happens on Monday will could determine a lot. Um and uh so I guess that’s a good transition to get into the actual off season. But yeah, I think as far as a a star trade, a big consolidation trade, my feeling is at the earliest next year’s trade deadline. But uh yeah, and and let’s address the elephant in the room with Kevin Durant. They expect the Suns to reach out to them for the obvious reason they have the picks and on paper there’s a fit, but it’s it’s doubtful. No one will rule it out, but it’s doubtful that the value will be in alignment in terms of what the Suns are looking for, what makes sense for them, and what the Rockets are willing to give up, both in terms of, you know, younger players or pick assets and also the matching salaries to get anywhere near KD’s 50s something million dollar salary for next year. I mean, they’ll kick the tires. They’ll do their due diligence, but you know, they really believe in this core and the timeline that they’re on. Obviously KD is going to be 37 next year. And so that sort of goes in the same bucket in that sure it sounds good on paper. They’ll do their due diligence. If the price is low enough, maybe you can’t rule it out, but they’re not going to bid aggressively when the floor is as high as it already is. And I’m not sure if KD alone, well KD minus whatever you’d have to give up in matching salary would truly take them to that OKC tier next year. Yeah. I don’t even consider Kevin Durant like someone that I think the Rockets I may maybe even remotely be interested in. He just doesn’t fit the timeline, right? I just Yeah, I just bring it up because it gets all the clicks on online to talk about it. But yeah, practically no. Yeah, when W tweeted that at first uh after the male Bridges trade, I I just I couldn’t really see I couldn’t really understand why exactly the Rockets want to do that. But yeah, then as you kind of get into it, Devin Booker just makes so much more sense. There was reporting in the past. Yeah, you mentioned Donovan Mitchell. There has been reporting they were interested in him and Derek White. So yeah, all all the signs kind of point to some significant upgrade eventually at the two. And that’s where we can get into this particular Rockets team. And it ties in not just with the trade market, but what they do internally moving forward because it’s easy to sort of just pile on Jaylen Green after a bad playoff series. I think, you know, for the season he was their leading scorer, averaged about 21 a game on mid-50 screw shooting. In the playoffs against the Warriors, he was like 13.3 per game and true shooting was below 50. So, I mean, this was a bad series, but part of the problem is that, well, with Jaylen specifically, there weren’t enough counters. He needs to get better at, you know, adding some mid-range to his game, maybe a floater, something other than threes and attacking the rim. But more importantly for the team as a whole, there were no counters. You look at that Warrior series, you mentioned Jabari Smith a couple of times. He shot about 46% from three and had a true shooting percentage of 68. He had he played just 20 minutes per game on the series and only 12 in game seven. That should tell you something. Joka just did not trust that it was scalable. There was something about that matchup and Kari did have some issues with turnovers in that series that get gets into the the shaky handle which has been an issue ever since he was drafted. But if it’s not Jaylen Green or if you know and to the Warriors credit they talked about wanting to take Jaylen out of the series, I don’t think because they necessarily view Jaylen as the Rockets’s best player. I think they wanted to take him out of the series because they realize, hey, there’s nobody else that can do what Jaylen does if he’s at his best. They’re not just not going to have the offense to win four out of seven. So, let’s just make sure that they don’t get the version of Jaylen Green that scores 25 per game and we’ll probably be okay. And that’s basically what happened. But part of that is because none of the other young guys that have that type of scoring, shotmaking, playmaking upside were at all reasonable options to play in the playoffs. You know, they gave Reed Shepard some minutes early, but he ended up getting bumped for Aaron Holiday and never got a look. Cam Whitmore had some minutes early in the year, but he sort of lost his spot midway through. So, you know, you look at that bench and you say, “Hey, Reed Shepard and Cam Whitmore, these are other guardwing players that even if Jaylen Green doesn’t fully pan out, maybe this can be the guy that you put in your back court for, you know, some playmaking or some scoring, but they just didn’t prioritize them enough um throughout the season to where they were even close to being options in the playoffs.” And you know, when you look at their onc court on offc court differentials against the Warriors, by far the worst of the eight rotation players they had was uh Tari E. And that doesn’t surprise me because I was told before the series, during the series, after the series, they didn’t view the Warriors as a good matchup for Tari at all because his defensive profile is so built on shooting the gaps and being aggressive that against a very disciplined team that runs its offense, you know, with a lot of structure, Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler, you can be playing five on four and be behind the eightball in a hurry. So, they didn’t think it was a good matchup for Tari. But what that means is that’s one less guy that can be a hedge for Jaylen Green because if you watch a lot of Rockets basketball the last two years on nights that Jaylen hasn’t had it, they have not been afraid when Tari E has been healthy to put Tar East in as the two to get them, you know, to the finish line in the game. That wasn’t an option against the Warriors. So, you know, Jaylen was a problem, but you know, they didn’t fully trust Tari and Jabari, and you know, maybe they just haven’t shown enough developmental wise to be trusted. You know, Reed and Cam Whitmore are still a little bit green. So, well, green in terms of their uh development. And so, it’s, you know, it’s easy to say Jaylen’s the problem. He was, but then who is the solution? And so that’s where, you know, certainly you can talk about making a deal externally, but also just internally. I think what they really need is for, you know, some of these younger wing or guard prospects, at least one of them, to make a leap this off season during the regular season next year, so that by the time you get to the postseason, it’s not Jaylen Green or basically nothing. Because honestly the counter for Emma Udoka if the starting lineup didn’t work and say what you will there were a lot of people that didn’t like when Jabari got you know taken out of the starting lineup midway through but clearly Emodoka wants Dunfleet Jaylen Green uh Dylan Brooks Amen Thompson Albrin Shenon to be the starting five well if the starting five didn’t have it going his one adjustment the only thing that he trusted was Stephen Adams and the double bid and the idea there is hey if we’re running Steven Adams Alber and Shangon together Am Thompson we’re going to be so big that even if we don’t shoot well, even if we don’t have much shotm, we’re going to be so relentless on the offensive glass that eventually just through sheer volume, we’ll get enough opportunities or we’ll get fouled. That’s the idea there. There wasn’t a counter in terms of, you know, if Jaylen Green doesn’t have it, is there somebody else that we can turn to to actually generate offense, to create shots, do what Jaylen wasn’t able to do? That’s what I think in this offseason. And you can address it by trade, but it can also be, you know, these other young guys, Tari and Jabari, Reed and Cam. Can you develop and perhaps the 2025 pick from Phoenix plays into that as well. Can you develop someone that can help with that A1 scoring deficiency that, you know, on nights that Jaylen Green just doesn’t have it uh ultimately killed this team. It’s not an easy fix, but I think internally when you look at how much depth they have in young players, there is, I think, some optimism that, you know, with more time and growth that some of this can be resolved internally. And, you know, obviously the hope is just that Jaylen Green takes the next steps himself, but that’s a boring discussion. We can all say, well, what if Jaylen Green improves? No, we’re talking about the scenario of well, what if this is just who he is? As you said earlier, what if he’s just, you know, a Bradley Beal at best type of player? Well, you don’t have to go on the trade market. There are internal options. And so I think that’s what they’re hoping over this off season and then next regular season that they can develop a bit more before they get into meaningful games in the postseason a year from now. Yeah, I think they still have enough time even though it you know the they are now sort of out of this rebuild territory. They still have enough time where they can see if someone can step up and I think there is enough upside to to for that potentially to come from within. So hopefully though it’s within the next year. After that I do think it’s going to have to be time for some types of decisions. So you you were talking about Jabari and Tari. So I want to get into the off season. Uh just get into the first of all I think we both agreed there’s a yeah they’ll definitely explore. They’re going to try to do some type of some type of trade maybe try to consolidate a little bit. Uh but very good chance that doesn’t happen just yet. So, if they’re going to com if they’re going to mostly run it back, uh, then they’re getting kind of to like the pinnacle of this good player problem I’ve been having. I mean, I’ve been, uh, I’ve been describing it as since last, uh, off season where you can’t really pay all these guys. They already paid Shenon and Jaylen Green. They’re paying Fred Van Vleet. They’ll probably change his contract this summer a little bit. Uh, you got Dylan Brooks on the his uh, contract. was descending, but now you got to pay Jabari Smith and potentially Tares and like or you know just one or the other. So now they’re starting to get to the point where uh you know a consolidation trade would help solve a lot of these issues. But if if nothing happens yet then they might need to make some type of decision because the way I’m looking at it so I’m looking at both their salary cap information. You guys can see it on capsh.com for the Rockets. When I’m looking at next season, it’s just even with Fred making a lower amount of money and everyone else back, it’s gonna they’re probably gonna be exceeding the tax while paying Jabari Antari and everybody else. So, we are starting to get to uh some type of like point where okay, there are going to be some changes and most likely like at the latest it’s going to be next off season unless there’s some moves done earlier. So what I’m curious about is if yeah they don’t make some consolidation trade now. Do you kind of have an idea how they might go about uh you know kind of making those cuts first deciding who they might want to move off to just make you know balance out the payroll but also make sure that they’re not losing any value in the process. just, you know, balance out the payroll, keep you still have the enough salaries for a big trade, but you’re not losing anything in the process. Well, and another wrinkle, I think it’s going to be a little more expensive for them to keep Stephen Adams than we expected a few months ago based on how well he played in the playoffs. I don’t think it’s unfathomable that he could get, you know, some non- taxpayer MLE offers this summer. And I do think the Rockets want to keep him. I think they will. But if they have to boost his annual salary to, you know, let’s say 15 million next year, then that makes it even tighter. And that’s another reason why I fully expect them to, you know, try and negotiate Fred’s deal to a lower annual amount with, of course, the perk to Fred being that he gets more years. It’s going to get tight in a hurry. And, you know, you don’t have to resolve it this off seasonason. We actually did a pod last offseason. And I asked you when was the true inflection point going to come and you mentioned this this summer that Amen and Cam are due, specifically a men who looks like a certain Max player at this point. I don’t think that it’s going to radically uh change their perspective this off season. However, like big picture, I will say that Jabari Smith and Tari E, but especially Jabari Smith, if they don’t have plans to unlock more of him as a scorer, as someone that can create his own offense and become maybe like a poor man’s KD when we talk about, you know, 610, 611 sweet shooting forward that, you know, has a high release point. if he’s going to be primarily the way they used him in the playoffs in the back half of this year, that strikes me as a guy that, you know, I don’t think they’ll look at moving him this off season, but if he doesn’t take another step, you could, you know, sign someone for the MLE that gives you, you know, 80% of what Jabari Smith gives you if you’re just looking at them strictly through a 3 and D lens. And that’s not me saying that they’re right in doing it. I’m just saying the way they are using these players right now. If Jabari is going to be in a little bit of a box and you’re not going to try and tap into these other skills, then that’s a good example of some someone that you might can fill more efficiently, more cap efficiently on the open market with if it’s someone that’s not as young, doesn’t have as much theoretical upside. Uh to a lesser extent, the same could be said with Tory Een. Although I think uh Rockets based on his injury history, there’s a case to be made that Tari might have more value to them and maybe the injury history gives Rockets something of a sweetheart deal on the market. We’ll see what those extension talks look like. But Jabari is a guy that I’m watching over the next year. I don’t think they won’t rush into this that they’re not going to be in danger of anything major this off season or next season when it comes to their cap sheet. So, I don’t think that they’ll look to preemptively make a move. But if he sort of stays on the trajectory that he was on this year, then he strikes me as a guy that long term you might you might have to look for an, you know, an 80% version who you can sign a lot cheaper because they don’t have the upside. And I’m sure some people listening will say, “What about Jaylen Green?” But honestly, I don’t even really factor Jaylen Green into these cap discussions that much because I just think it’s pretty simple. either Jaylen’s going to pan out the way they hope or eventually he’s going to be used as a piece in that Devin Booker Don Mitchell type trade that we’ve been discussing. So, you know, with with Jaylen Green, it’s like you’re you’re paying basically for the role. And so, hopefully Jaylen is able to fill that role himself. If not, then he’ll be part of the package that goes and you know, the the team trading the star for Jaylen might sees him still as being a young guy, change of scenery, still having some upside. contract is short enough anyway, two, three years depending on that uh player option at the end. It’s not like there’s a huge commitment regardless. But I just think Jaylen’s slot is sort of locked in regardless because whether it’s him or someone else, his salary is going to go to that A1 scorer role. It’s just a matter of who that is. Looking at the rest of it, I think Jabari is the guy among the extension eligibles this off season that I’m most, you know, uncertain about long term and then, you know, couple years away. But I do wonder about Cam Whitmore because, you know, at that same end of season press conference earlier this week, Eay was asked about some some comments from uh Cam during the year expressing uncertainty over his role. And Eay said that came as a shock to me because we’ve had more conversations with Cam than anybody. And if you know Cam Whitmore’s story, going back through the draft, there have been some uh some concerns. That’s part of why he fell to 20 when a lot of people said he was a top five pick. He had a good rookie season, especially a good finish to his rookie season and yet couldn’t establish a rotation role in year two, even for a Houston team that had this clear deficiency. So, he’s a year behind Jabari in terms of when he’d be extension eligible. But he’s another guy that when I look at the young [ __ ] right now, if he can’t carve out a rotation role next year, if if you’re still doing the hypothetical song and dance about what he might can become, that might be too expensive of a bet for Houston to make when you have all these other mouths to feed that are, you know, of a similar, you know, age range but are showing you more in the here and now. So, I’ll start with Jabari and Tari because they are a little more time-sensitive given that they’re extension eligible now. They’ll be restricted free in next year. I feel I do feel like if they have to choose between one of them, I would guess they’d want to keep Tari just because yeah, like you mentioned, he brings a lot more value to them than probably elsewhere. So, you know, if you can get a little more for Jabari, I understand that. Now, pragmatically speaking, I’m sure they’re going to negotiate with them anyways with both of them regardless of whether what they do on the roster. And they ideally probably want to see what they can get these guys on because one benefit of of getting them on some team friendly deal that makes sense is that well, does it potentially raise their trade value later in case they got to make that type of thing? And I’m sure that went into uh a lot of the thought process was what they gave Shangun and Jaylen Green uh last summer. Uh but as you mentioned, it just it’s just too many salary stacking up at the mean in the at the same time. So, if you’re going to extend both these guys, then uh and not really have not have done anything else, then you’re, you know, starting to get a little the the payroll starts to get kind of dangerously high, which I I don’t think will be too hard for them to maneuver out of later because you can really look at anyone on the roster. You mentioned Jaylen Green. It’s a pretty short contract. Even if he doesn’t live up to it, I don’t think they might have that much of a problem getting off of him in the in uh in the future. So, they’ve got options where uh they can, you know, they can maneuver around it. Um, I just would say it’s, you know, the earlier they act on it, the easier it’ll be later. As far as uh you mentioned Almond Thompson where yeah, that is going to be like eventually the big uh like the really big inflection point where he is looking like he should be getting a max contract by then. Then I think it gets a little easier. Uh you they should have already figured out most of what their top five or six guys are going to be. Uh Dylan Brooks’s contract will have ended by then. Uh it’s interesting how Dylan Brooks contract is like is perfectly aligned with Ammon Thompson’s uh rookie scale contract, but that’s also another guy where he out of all their core players, he’s uh he’s one of the older guys. So, you know, there’s not a lot of like how much more can he develop really like not much. So, you already know who he is. That’s also another route that they where they can go where Dylan Brooks signed the contract like four years 80 million plus. A lot of people criticized it based on how he just came off verse uh uh with his last year with the Grizzlies and he’s played up to the value if not exceeded it. Uh that is the guy where I could see not necessarily like a consolid as part of a consolidation trade like yeah eventually if they need to like add that 20 million salary to do something. Okay, go ahead. But what if you can get uh like like some nice premium like a premium first round pick or just some like other good young cheaper players? That’s another interesting route because if you want to still maximize your uh your your upside and keep all the all your draft picks and just see what if they can continue developing that’s another path where they could go. Uh so they’ve got they’ll they’ll be okay. I think I’m it’s not like thankfully all the contracts that they’ve signed they’re all pretty manageable. Nothing is like like like a so burdensome they can’t move. So I think they’ll whatever it is they’ll make it out. One thing that Rafel Stone has done really well in his entire time as Houston GM they have been very disciplined to your point on the contracts they hand out and the valuations and one good example that illustrates this is the 2023 offseason when they had all that cap space they signed Dylan Brooks. Not only is he exceeding the value of that contract that contract is actually descending in value. So it’s becoming even better on the back end. And one of the reasons they did that, as I’m sure you recall, they thought they had deals with all three of Fred, Dylan, and Brook Lopez. Brook Lopez went back to Milwaukee, and depending on who you talked to, you know, might have um spurned the Rockets and told him he was coming when he didn’t. Regardless what ended up happening, they had this this slot that was earmarked for Brook Lo Brook Lopez and they could have gone a higher tier than the players they ultimately signed, which were Jacqu Landell and Jeff Green, but rather than get the best possible player, I mean, they were certainly doing their due diligence, but the theme that was repeated to me at offseason was contract value. They think in terms of future optionality. So they used that space to get a little more creative. You know, the Dylan deal was a good example. They frontloaded it because they didn’t need every last drop for Brook Lopez. They signed guys like Jacqu Landale and Jeff Green that have positive trade value even if they’re just, you know, 10th, 11th man off your bench type players. You know, certainly they’re good for morale, the locker room, blah blah blah, but on year-to-year short-term contracts, they’re very tradable. And so that’s something to sort of keep in mind with this team. They they have a lot of restraint when it comes to not giving out deals that are going to age poorly. So because of that, I do think you have to, you know, trust them a little bit that um that they’re not going to put themselves in a bad spot. They have shown a lot of restraint even when upgrades were available not to do it if it was going to put them financially in a you know in a lot of jeopardy long term. No, 100% future long-term thought process like thinking was in the thought process. Even Fred Vanble Vleet, they overpaid him on these first two years. He’s not he’s not a Max player, but now he’s on that team option and they’re going to most likely modify the contract. So, that’s a good segue into the last things I want to get into what they might what we could definitely look to for them to do this off season in the short term. Uh, so, uh, you started, you mentioned Steven Adams earlier. So, he is their top free agent that, uh, I’m sure they’ll want to bring back. Even if he doesn’t come back, there should be some other set center veteran options. You mentioned Brook Lopez, that’s a guy like I wouldn’t be surprised if they uh, they register their interest again in him. Uh, you know, could be like both guys could be earning around the full mid-level type range. So either way, as far as like biggest need, it is backup center. They’ll, you know, as far as like what they need right now, they’ll definitely want to address that. I I would assume ideally bring back Steven Adams. So they’re over the tax right now. They’re about 12 million. So the Fred with Fred Van Vleet, he’s got that $45 million team option. I don’t I think he’s in their plans at least for the next year, next two years, like most likely. I’m sure there’s a select few guards that they would trade him for, but I’m sure they’re not going to be available. So, my feeling is like, okay, you can look at that $45 million contract. Why don’t you opt them in and trade him for whoever it is? I don’t think that’s what they want to do. I think most likely they’ll just decline it. They’ll they have, you know, they’ll have until they can honestly start, you know, probably start negotiating, I guess, technically after the finals on that next uh what that contract might be. And if you look at what like Yeah. And if you look at what Drew Holidayiday and Rudy Goar just did, uh they took some pay cuts and then got like extra years. You could kind of see what the blueprint of that deal might be. Um now, at the same time, that’s not still enough for them of him taking that sort of a pay cut for them to fit Steven Adams under the uh luxury taxes. They’re they’re definitely not going to be a taxpayer next year. I’m sure that’s going to be their de facto hard hard cap. Uh unless they do get like some a superstar and then they’re like first place or like they’re really like running. Uh so then you mentioned some of these other contracts that they had like Jo Landale, he’s got a non-g guaranteed salary. Jeff Green, he already expired. Uh they have Aaron Holiday on a team option. There’s Cody Zeller right now. He’s non-g guaranteed. So they gave uh some of these guys these contracts with the intention of okay, well maybe, you know, they’re they’re like these walking trade exceptions. they uh we can trade them just to build the salary to get whoever we want and then the team getting these players can just cut them. Uh you know, they won’t really be on the hook for much. Uh but now that those salaries aren’t as necessary as I look at it, like I said, Jeff Green’s already expired. Uh you got Landale with that 8 million, Holiday 5 million. So they they’re then like the easiest way for them to create more space is to just, you know, cut these guys, decline their team option, whatever it is, and then you could bring back Stephen Adams. And the while those contracts still seem pretty valuable for those trade purposes, they just don’t really need I don’t think they really need it as much anymore because whatever trade, whatever big trade they end up doing, it’s going to involve some of their key young players. And with Shenun getting and with Shenon, he’s making 34 m next year. Jaylen Green making 33 million next year. You got Brooks making 21. Like that’s it. Those are the tradable salaries. Now we don’t know what the combination will be. They could supplement it with like sign and trading some of their free agents. Uh but like they know those uh like the Landales, the Jeff Greens, JH Shante, like those contract structures that they gave. It was more so serving the purpose for the last two seasons. Now those two years are done. They didn’t really make any of that trade. Whatever their big move is, it’s going to involve their best players. But yeah, just to summarize, get back to Stephen Adams point, I kind of get the feeling they’ll just cut a combination of these guys I just mentioned so they can create the space to bring back Stephen Adams. That would be my guess. Yeah, that’s my inclination as far as what they’re likely to do. You you took the words right out of my mouth. Yeah, those Jack Landale and uh Jeff Green type contracts were a bridge until the guys in your current rotation got off of their first contracts and are now at salaries in which they can come close to matching simply by themselves. And so there’s still, you know, even though they didn’t use them, there’s still value in the optionality. That’s how they look at it and they’re probably right in that. But yeah, at this point they’re not as valuable. I know, you know, some people will say, well, what if you could combine, you know, Landale Jeff Green’s actually becoming a free agent anyway, but, you know, if theoretically you brought him back on another one-year deal, you know, you could acquire someone without having to, you know, give up a current player. Well, number one, most trades of significance require you to give up current talent. It’s not just future picks or prospects that haven’t played. And secondly, for a team that’s already 52 and 30, number two in the West, if you’re bringing in a player of significance, how are you going to carve out the minutes? It just doesn’t make sense to bring in a player unless you’re sending someone out to help facilitate, you know, the 30, 35 minutes that they’re going to play. And so, at that point, the salary situation resolves itself. So, yeah, I agree with you. Not just from the standpoint of, you know, matching salaries and how it works, but also when you think through the incentives of how these trades come together. Yeah, in the past you might could have made a deal saying, “Oh, it’s nice to have guys at, you know, 11, 12, 13 on your roster that you can make a trade with use as vouching salary without taking away from your current team.” Well, when the baseline is as high as it currently is, and the only player you bring in is a type that’s going to be good enough to automatically play 30 35 minutes, well, yeah, you got to give something that’s actually playing or otherwise it just it just doesn’t make any sense. Last point I would like to get in on Dylan Brooks. You did a good point of illustrating his value. I think there was also a little bit of a test for the Rockets this year when Jabari Smith came back from that broken hand and a lot of people expected him to get his starting job back. Obviously, what was his job went to Amen Thompson who took off. There were some that expected him to, you know, continue to start and for Dylan Brooks to go to the bench. They didn’t do that. So, that, you know, that should tell you how much they value Dylan Brooks that even someone like Jabari Smith who, you know, has limitations, but he’s a good player. Let’s be clear, he’s a good player. He contributes to winning. He has a lot of upside. Drafted at number three overall just a couple of years ago. The fact that at Dylan Brooks kept his starting spot even after Jabari Smith came back and played relatively well, you know, that might tell you a little bit about Jabari, but it also tells you a little bit about Dylan Brooks and just how valued he is in the grand scheme. Yeah. No, I agree. And so, uh, I mean, it’ll just be interesting to see how just what the long-term plan is, but, uh, you know, a lot of people might be listening to this like, well, are they really just going to run it back? I think in the short term, probably. I just I I just don’t think that there’s such a rush for them to make such a big trade at the moment or overpay to make the next step. I I think they’re all it seems like they all kind of understand like okay look like that was a great season but we’re not as close as being the 2C might suggest and they’re going to play things out a little bit more. They still have some time not too much time but they still have a decent amount of time uh before they do have to make some big decisions. And one other thing to keep in mind, I thought it was interesting that Rafel Stone at his end of Stone uh end of Stone end of year presser went out of his way to point out the possibility of trading draft picks for future draft picks because I’m sure in this run it back scenario a lot of people are going to be saying, “But you have a top 10 pick from Phoenix coming in and you’re already struggling to find playing time for Ree Shepard and Cam Whitmore so they can develop the problem that we were describing earlier.” Well, if they don’t get lucky. Now, if they get lucky in the lottery on Monday night and jump into the top four, then that changes everything both in terms of, you know, if you keep the pick, the u long-term future of the prospect, but also the viability of that um pick as a trade asset. You know, a lot of things change if they get the, you know, 17% outcome of jumping into the top four. But if they stay at nine, maybe fall to 10, something like that, then you could see them pull off the old New England Patriots NFL move under Bill Bich where, you know, you just uh trade it for a future pick and roll it back to sort of preserve the optionality because yeah, in a run it back scenario, it would be difficult to sort of envision how a mid lottery pick would have a clear path to develop as the Rockets are currently constructed. But again, there are other ways you can deal with that and you could see them sort of sort of roll that pick back, especially because it seems like there’s a moderate amount of interest in, you know, the lottery of this year’s draft. So, if they wanted to move into the future, I don’t think that would be uh too much of a problem for them. No, that’s actually a really good point. I don’t I can’t believe I didn’t consider it. Uh yeah, that’s just an easier way. At the same time, I think a lot of us were considering maybe they would do that last year when they got the number three or at least trade down because Reed is making like $10 million more a year. So that’s like that’s a lot of money for like uh just like any any rookie. Um so that’s yeah, that’s a good thing that they could do like if they just get more so like a late lottery pick. Maybe they’re just not as much the difference relative to last year. They really really do believe in Reed Shepard. I think you know Tim McMahon at ESPN had that featured story recently about you know the long-term blueprint for the Rockets. How do they take the next step into actual contention? And he had that quote from someone saying that Reed Shepard might be our most talented offensive player. That’s the difference. They do genuinely believe that Reed Shepard can be something special in the NBA. And so some people might hear that and say, “Well, if that’s the case, why couldn’t he even play 10 minutes?” I think that’s where you get into how Eime Udoka coaches and especially with the emphasis on defense and Reed Shepard’s biggest liability being how small he is. I think that particular weakness on an Emmaoka coach team and the role being so small that it’s not like he’s probably going to develop that much on you know a 10 to 12 minutes per game Aaron Holiday type role anyway. That’s where it sort of became easy to just call this like a red shirt year for Reed and let him learn from the sidelines. But long term, I do think, you know, they would have been interested if not for Reed Shepard in moving that pick last year for a future assets. It’s just they viewed Reed as such a special player that they were willing to roll the dice. I doubt that type of player is going to be there this year if they stay at nine or 10. And so that’s going to make it much more likely that unlike last year, they actually do sort of roll that 2025 pick into the future. Yeah. And even even if there is someone like a nine or 10, it’s just going to be really tough to bring in yet another another first round pick uh into the mold. Like they’re it’s going to be hard to envision them getting any minutes anytime soon. So I think that that actually makes a lot of sense. no matter what they’re the Rockets having the ninth overall pick as a two seed. They’re going that pick is going to be in a lot of people’s fake trades. Uh but uh that kind of reminds me what the Wol uh no the Spurs did last year. They traded uh the eighth pick to the Wolves for their 2031 first round pick. Uh so the if the if the Rockets stay at nine, that’s like that’s $6 million, which it’s not nothing. and that’s still like a good amount, especially considering their the tax crunch they’re about to go through. So, if they can turn that pick into a future selection from a team that they’re, you know, they’re shorting like like the Suns, maybe there’s another team out there that they can identify, oh yeah, give us your future far out pick and you could get this. uh you you add more value potentially while also uh helping your tax crunch without potentially moving some of your uh players that you’d like to hold on for a little bit longer. So, that’s actually a really good uh possibility I could see them doing. Yeah, I think they’ve looked, I think, superficially, fairly inside the box with how they’ve approached the last few drafts, but I think that’s because, you know, they’ve generally, you know, they have a high bar for trades and, you know, they have a certain valuation and the last few years they’ve been at a point where there was at least some deficiency and in the early years a lot of deficiency. in the current roster to where there was merit to just taking best player available and worrying about the rest as opposed to now there’s so much talent across the board. I don’t think, you know, even last year, I think Reed made a lot of sense because he’s certainly a hedge for the age of Fred Vinfleet. And so I think ideally, you know, as Fred gets into his 30s and his body starts to go a little bit, the idea is that you can scale Reed up just as, you know, you’re scaling Fred down. But he’s also a little bit of a hedge for Jaylen Green as well. and that if Jaylen doesn’t pan out the way you expect, then even if you know they’re not they’re not an apples to apples comparison in terms of their body types and their skills, but you know Reed can function as as your lead guard and if you have to tweak the role next to him a little bit and yeah, there’s a world where it’s not Jaylen Green, it’s Reed Shepard as your lead guard in a couple of years. So there was always at least that path. Whereas now the bar is so high and there isn’t a clear deficiency when you look at this roster and you say, “Wow, this is a spot where this guy drafted at 9 or 10 can clearly go in and provide an upgrade.” I think that’s going to shift them to think a little more creatively. I don’t think it’s so much that they weren’t creative in the past. It’s just, you know, if you, you know, if you believe in the BPA and there’s a clear path there and you’re not blown away by the trade, you may as well just take BPA and worry about the rest later. I do think the composition of the roster now is going to force them to be a little bit more, you know, creative with how they look at this situation, assuming they don’t get lucky and get into the top four in the lottery on Monday night. Yeah. No, I agree. One thing I that came to mind, they did that Nets trade last year where they ended up getting a a ser a one a net of one extra first round pick. I’m not saying they can get that alone for this election, but that could be the type of framework that they go for. At the same time, let’s just see what happens Monday. The Rockets, they’ve had a top four pick for four drafts in a row now. Uh so that’s definitely if not the the bet the highest lottery luck in the past. uh in recent memory, I don’t know if I can’t really think of anyone that might have more luck. So, they’ve been on a heater. And one other thing to watch for with the lottery, so obviously the ideal scenario for the Rockets is to have that Suns pick jump into the top four. But the other team that they’re cheering for is the Brooklyn Nets. And the reason for that, if the Nets get into the top four, it’s more likely than not that I think the Nets would stay put. You rarely see top four picks get traded and they still have that unprotected 2027 swap from the original Harden deal. The Nets did not get that back last summer in that exchange of draft assets. You know, Brooklyn getting their picks back and giving the, you know, the Suns to the Rockets. So, the Rockets would prefer the Nets to get a young building block that, you know, might make sense for the long run, but you know, if you get one of the top four picks in the draft, you’re more likely going to surround them with other young talent. And younger teams, we all know this, typically don’t win a lot of games. So, if the Nets get into the top four of this lottery, that probably makes the value of their 2027 swap a little bit more because they’re more likely to be young as opposed to, you know, if the Nets stay at six or they fall to seven or eight, something like that. Then that’s where you could see the Nets just saying, you know what, f it. We’re going to trade this pick. We’re going to look to sort of leverage our, you know, New York status and just bring in veteran difference makers as soon as possible and go on more of an, you know, expedited path. probably not next season because they do still have control of their 2026 pick, but certainly by 2027. If the Nets jump up, then I think they’re more likely to commit to a traditional rebuild, if you will, and that would ultimately benefit the Rockets in terms of that 2027 swap. Yeah. But then also depending who they get, like if the Nets get first overall, maybe that could speed things up. Uh ideally three or four rather than one. Yeah. Yeah. In that case, maybe flag is good enough that he can charge you. Yeah. In that case though, then if you’re Houston, see if you could trade that 27 first a little or sooner than later, uh, while there’s someone still kind of high on that. But man, we I think we covered just about everything. Uh, yeah, the draft, free agency, the future, what a trade could look like or if even one will even happen. I appreciate your time for coming along. Uh, you have anything coming up we should be on the lookout for? Um, no, just standard u offseason coverage. um may have a bit more activity next week depending on how that lottery goes. But yeah, rocketswire.usaday.com for all the daily coverage. And then uh blogger line podcast is my main and I also do locked on rockets with Jackson Gatlin once a week. So uh yeah, should be a pretty active offseason podcast and writing. Uh definitely not hard to find. Uh just Google me and you’ll find Houston Rockets coverage pretty much every day. Awesome, man. So yeah, I mean he pretty much plugged where you guys can follow him. It’s all written down there. You can follow them at the rocketswire on blue sky and Twitter. And you guys can follow me on Blue Sky and Twitter. I’ll have my name Yosi Goslin also on find me there. Same name on YouTube, Spotify, and Apple. You can get the audio versions there. Please subscribe to Third Apron where I’m going to have a lot more deeper cap analysis. I’ll eventually do a Rockets offseason preview where I get more into the cap stuff. I’ll get deeper into what Fred Van Vleet’s contract could look like and what a potential extension for Jabari could look like if they even get to that point. Uh be on the lookout on capshets.com just for any cap updates as we get closer to the off season and I might be back this weekend. I still have a lot more teams to go and I might do a stream during the lottery. So be on the lookout if I have an announcement for that. Thanks for uh
Ben DuBose of Rockets Wire and The Lager Line podcast joins me to discuss the Houston Rockets upcoming offseason. We go over who the Rockets consider core players, their trade package for a star and where they should draw a line, Fred VanVleet’s contract situation, and potential future cap casualties.
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