The Nuggets Just Exposed OKC’s Biggest Weakness

The Nuggets Just Exposed OKC’s Biggest Weakness

The Nuggets just went into OKC and stole game one from the Thunder in an absolute thriller. And while you could point to a wide range of factors such as Joic’s brilliance, Gordon’s two clutch free throws in game-winning three, or even Mark Dagnold’s decision to foul while up three. To me, this win came down to the fact that after Sheay hit a three to put them up 113 to 102, they failed to put the game away on offense, which was a result of Denver taking advantage of their biggest weakness. To understand how the Nuggets shut them down in crunch time, we first have to look at what they were doing schematically. Of course, OKC’s go-to halfcourt offense is an isolation from Shay. And what the Nuggets did is they had his defender angle their body to push the ball away from the baseline while Joic and the closest help defender both walled up near the free throw line, not letting him attack the middle. Many people will label this defense elbows and it serves the same purpose as a box in one. By pushing the ball to the middle and parking the biggest defender in a driving lane, all of a sudden Sheay has no angle to attack the basket. So anytime he touches the ball, you’ll notice the defense immediately triggering that zone. Wiggins empties the wing, but Porter Jr. holds his position in the gap while Joic steps up to play the front of the paint. And with nowhere to go, Sheay settles for a three. Here’s another example from later in the game. Brown’s in position to help in the middle, but Porter doesn’t prevent Sheay from attacking baseline, so Brown shadows his attack all the way through, essentially turning it into a trap. The Thunder tried to counter by getting Sheay the ball on the move, but it was the same thing. After a handoff, both Jokic and Murray are parked in the lane, and with nowhere to go, he’s forced to reset the two-man game with iHeart, only to miss a mid-range jumper. The entire premise of this strategy is to make it so Sheay can’t isolate in space. Then you can force them to look elsewhere, which is an automatic win because of how much they rely on him. by loading up aggressively behind the play. They’re able to avoid most of the problems that come with mismatches. So, anytime Shay used a screen involving a wing, they just switch. On this one, they again try to get him on the move with a handoff from Cet to which Brown switches out. Then, with Jokic roaming over, there’s no path to the rim while Porter helps from up top to contest the pull-up jumper. Here’s another example. The possession starts with Dort setting an early ball screen to force a switch onto Jamal. By switching, they were able to keep someone in front of him at all times, meaning that he would have to get his offense over the top. It was the same thing when Jokic was involved in the action. He obviously isn’t going to switch, but by coming up near the level of the screen in a high drop while Brown goes under, the only available shot is the pull-up three. Joic actually spent a lot of time dropping in this game. And one way OKC likes to counter with Cadet in particular is to have him pop. The Nuggets were prepared for that though, having the next guy over pre-rotate to the pop while everyone else shifts one pass up, resulting in Joic getting back to his position near the baseline. This requires perfect execution. Here’s what it looks like when one piece is off. Joic drops to play the ball while Jay Will pops and instead of shifting one pass up, Jamal tries to bait a pass to the corner and the result is a wideopen three. To avoid plays like that, Denver made an effort to keep Joic from having to rotate from the paint to the three-point line. Primarily, that meant matching him up with one of OKC’s wings and essentially daring them to shoot. For this reason, it’s imperative that moving forward, all three of Dort, Caruso, and Kasein Wallace are at least reliable threats from outside because if not, that allows Jokic to freely roam the court, which means back to zoning up Sha’s isolations and taking away the middle of the floor. Here’s a great example. When Sheay gets the ball up top, Joic completely abandons Dort in the corner to zone up, while Jamal does the same to Wallace in the opposite corner. Personally, I’d rather see him trust Dort to knock down the corner three in that situation as opposed to a pull-up. With that said, though, the Thunder tried to force Yic into the action anyways by using their wings as screeners, and that’s when they went right back to their traditional coverage with Jokic either hedging or dropping while the next guy shifts one pass over to pick up the short roller. The problem with using these wings as screeners is that they simply don’t pose the same threat that the bigs do. If this were iHeart, a shovel pass would lead to great offense, but Sheay instead tries to hit Chad on the wing and turns it over. Like I said earlier, these coverages required perfect execution. And I don’t just mean against screens. Anytime they weren’t quick to get into the gaps while Sheay started to isolate, it became very clear that they simply don’t have the personnel to stop him from getting wherever he wants to go. For that reason, I think a huge point of emphasis for the Thunder moving forward has to be playing with as much pace as possible, preventing Denver from getting into their set defense. Not only does playing faster create more openings to attack, it also leads to cross matches like on this play where Joic found himself on an island, forcing them to come with a double and leaving Dor all alone in the corner for a three. I think it’s worth noting though that even when the Nuggets were set and loaded up on Shay in isolation, he still found ways to create his own shot at volume. It wasn’t the most efficient shooting performance in the world, but he still put up 33 points, including 13 in the fourth, and it was the result of some really impressive shot making. It reminds me of last year’s playoffs. If you remember, the Mavs implemented a really similar strategy. And it did a good job of slowing down OKC’s team offense only for him to erupt for some of the best mid-range scoring games we’ve ever seen and end up averaging 32 points a game on 60% true shooting. Where the problem lies is on all of those plays where he doesn’t have the space to get to a shot he likes. With Gordon on the ball and all four help defenders boxing up the middle, when he attacks, he’s able to collapse the entire defense and find the open man, which is exactly what the Nuggets want. Well, obviously they don’t want role players just getting a bunch of open threes, but the idea is anyone but Shay. And the best way to counter these looks outside of top tier shotmaking is to simply find the soft spots as a passer, which then forces them into rotation and creates ball movement. I think he did a pretty good job of finding these pressure points. This time when he draws everyone to the middle, Caruso sneaks into a slight opening near the baseline, which then draws help from the perimeter, leaving Chet with an advantage to attack as he steps into a jumper. Remember what I said earlier about a shovel pass to iHeart, though. This is pretty clearly the weakest point in Denver’s defense and something the Thunder are going to have to take advantage of. With Jokic shadowing the ball to not let Sheay get to the middle, that means he’s not able to pay as much attention to the big man where he can showcase his signature push shot. I think there were a few instances of Shay missing these reads. On this one, the soft spot is the exact same as it was with Caruso. IHart’s all alone on the block, but Sheay doesn’t see him. The next best pass is a kick out to Jdub, who then has to create against the closeout, and by the time the ball gets to the baseline, it’s way too late. Speaking of Jub, you could argue this defensive scheme is more about him than anyone else. By putting so much attention on Sheay, they’re basically saying that they don’t think he’s capable of punishing them as a second side attacker. And in game one, they were proven right. Here’s a great example of what I mean. You’re going to see them switch the wings off a screen, and they’re not going to help off of Sheay. Jub has the entire middle of the floor to work with if he beats his defender, but he instead chooses to move it to Dort, who simply doesn’t apply much pressure as a slasher. Most of JDub’s offense comes off of screens, especially with iHeart. And the Nuggets didn’t care to load up on these attacks, instead playing them straight up with Jokic. Like I said earlier, more times than not, he was back in a drop. But we’re talking about a drop where everyone else stays home, daring him to beat them as a middle of the floor scorer. Every now and then they’d mix it up by sending Joic up in a hedge, though. And again, this is where they have to be looking to get the ball to iHeart instead of hunting for those exterior passes. Like Shay, I think JDub did a pretty good job for the most part. I really like the idea of setting up with an empty corner on this one because if Jokic picks up the ball, there’s nobody who can possibly stop iHeart from getting to that floater. But even in the spread pick and roll setup, remember everybody staying home while Joic plays the action straight up. So that middle of the floor touch is there anytime they want it. As far as JDub’s overall process goes, though, it felt really rushed to me. Here’s one where Joic hedges, but this time Jamal steps over as the low man to take away a pass to the middle. If Jaylen were to wait a few seconds, either Joe or Sheay would free up on the weak side, only for him to instead get caught in the air. He’s at his best as a mid-range scorer when he’s utilizing pace. And it just felt to me like he was hellbent on turning the corner and attacking a backpedaling Jokic as opposed to getting to his spots. It was the same thing when he started off the ball. This time they go to a down screen for him to turn the corner. And again, he’s unable to attack Joic in that drop coverage. The biggest key to OKC figuring out their offense moving forward, especially in crunch time, is Jaylen Williams being that second creator. They need him to relieve some of that pressure on Sheay by operating out of the pick and roll or even off the catch as a counter to the aggressive gap help. He simply didn’t do that in game one, finishing with just 16 points on five of 20 shooting. The same goes for Cadet, though. Remember, they’re switching with the wings, which means that he’s getting a lot of possessions against guards. He needs to be able to attack mismatches in these spots or they simply won’t be able to make the Nuggets uncomfortable. One thing I will say that I loved from the Thunder in this game and expect to continue being a big factor moving forward is the way they countered the Nuggets set defense with offball screens. When Shay gets the ball, they know both Jamal and Joic are looking to zone up. And by setting a flare screen, there’s nobody who can close out to the corner, leaving Dort with a wide open three. Also, if they’re trying to pull Yokic into the action by having a wing screen instead of letting him drop her hedge, I’d like to see more ghost screens like this, as they basically guarantee a great look from outside. Most importantly though, I think there are ways to tactically get Jokic on an island with Shay in the middle. In a traditional pick and roll setup, he’s able to sit back and drop while the other three help defenders box up the paint. But one thing they did in the fourth quarter was start Sheay off the ball, then have him come off a high back screen to catch the ball with a downhill advantage. Now, in order to help Joic, the defense has to essentially collapse, and you get another great look from three. Something else they did was start Jade on the elbow instead of on the wing. Then when they go to pick and roll, he’s going to clear out to the wing, pulling his defender with him and leaving nobody alongside Jokic to protect the nail. All that’s to say, this one game showed us a lot, and I think there are ways for the Thunder to counter moving forward. The first few points of emphasis all have to do with individual performance. JDub simply has to be a more reliable secondary creator, and Cadet has to be more effective attacking mismatches. Also, all three of Caruso, Dort, and Wallace have to keep the defense honest as shooters, or they’ll probably have to be replaced by guys like Joe or Wiggins. And on the tactical side, I’d say they have to look for iHeart in the middle of the floor. Use flare screens and go screens to create movement and compromise help. Then, of course, play with as much pace as possible. If they can do these things, I think they can really start to pick apart Denver’s coverages, which would then lead to more space for Shay to do his thing one-on-one. From there, you’ll probably also have to find a way to slow down Jokic on the other end, but that’s another discussion for another time. Right now, it’s 10 Nuggets, and OKC is going to have to figure out how to take advantage of their aggressive defensive strategy. If you enjoyed this breakdown, make sure to drop a like, subscribe, and turn my post notifications on to be first on more content. If you’re interested in my more in-depth research, make sure to check out the Hoop Venue podcast and my social media profiles. You can find those links in the description. Feel free to let me know down in the comments what you thought of Game One. As always, I hope you all have a great day and I’ll catch you guys in the next one.

The Nuggets just stole game 1 from the Thunder, and it was a result of OKC failing to close on offense, potentially exposing their biggest weakness.

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