Atlanta Hawks: 2025 NBA Draft Lottery looms, scenarios, impact, prospects to watch, mock draft, etc.

Atlanta Hawks: 2025 NBA Draft Lottery looms, scenarios, impact, prospects to watch, mock draft, etc.

On today’s show, the NBA draft lottery is here. It’s happening on Monday, May 12th. It impacts the Hawks directly. We’ll talk about that and much more right now. You are Locked on Hawks, your daily Atlanta Hawks podcast, part of the Locked On podcast network, your team every day. Hello friends, welcome to episode 1972 of the locked on hawks podcast. I am your host Brad Rolling coming to you deep in the night here on a Sunday evening into Monday. Today show is brought to by the folks at Monarch Money. Take control of your finances right now with Monarch Money and use code locked on MBA at monarchmoney.com for half off your first year. I also want to tell you at the top of the podcast as I always do to make us your first listen each and every day here at Locked on Hawks. Check us out and subscribe to this podcast anywhere you happen to find your podcast. That includes Apple, Spotify, Overcast. We’re also on YouTube. So, please like this video as you’re watching it. And of course, be sure to tell your friends and your family about this podcast. And it’s lottery day. As listen to this podcast on Monday, the lottery is tonight. And there’s plenty to get to. And quickly, at the top of this, I would say there’s only one tiny bit of publicly reported movement on the Hawks well doumented search for the president basketball operations that’s going on right now. I discussed that and some other stuff on a Friday night episode. That was a mailbag show. If you missed that one, still relevant at this moment in time. Before we get to the lottery, the new reporting that happened on Sunday evening from Mark Stein and Jake Fischer, basically that they wrote that Sportsology, who is the uh firm that the Hawks have hired to run the search for the Pobo, quote, has been reaching out to various agents to gauge their interest. End quote. That’s been in the water the last few days. I discussed that a lot on the show on Friday night. It doesn’t mean they’re going to definitely go that route, but it’s definitely getting louder and louder. There’s smoke there for sure. There’s been some names thrown around there from some other like non- mainstream reporting sources like Trey Young’s agent made the rounds in one one report that was out there I think from Grant Absiff. Um not too much to get to like beyond like just some rumblings there. If something happens more seriously and someone becomes a prime candidate I’ll talk about that in depth. Obviously if you hire a trades agent it becomes difficult and not necessarily difficult but complicated to say the least about everything else going on. But what I would say broadly is that unlike some of the other like executive names, agents really do not want their names out there unless that’s really seriously going to happen because it helps actually hurts them in their realm. If you’re an executive somewhere else, if you’re a free agent executive like a money mire or Calvin Booth, you want your name out there in the media. If you’re an agent, you don’t want that to happen unless that’s going to be like the job for you to take. So, it’s kind of clok and dagger right now. That’s kind of maybe why you hire a search firm to keep these things under wraps. But in the meantime, nothing has really broken since Friday night. So listen to that podcast. And that’s kind of the only that was added on. There’s a little bit more smoke for the agents. But the clock is ticking for sure on that. And the entire league now is basically in Chicago for the draft combine which is happening as we speak. And then also the lottery on Monday. Speaking of the lottery, that’s gonna be the theme of this podcast. A little bit of a quick one on Sunday night into Monday. It arrives, the lottery itself on at 700 p.m. Eastern time. It’s on ESPN before game four of Boston and New York on Monday evening. And as a reminder, the be number 22 pick no matter what happens. That comes from the Lakers. And there are other like secondary rooting interests in the lottery that I covered on that last episode on Friday night. I answered a question about like teams to root for and maybe root against if you are the Hawks. But the real practical drama is whether the Hawks are going to have two first round picks or one. That’s basically it. And the gap between having a late lottery pick, which the Hawks probably will have, but not definitely will have, and then not having one is pretty significant. The loss of a lottery pick or at least potential to lose one is a really big deal. So that’s why this is a real dramatic event that’s happening on Monday night for the Hawks. I’m also just candidly very excited. This is going to be the last time that I ever have to lay out the odds in podcast form. So here we go one more time. Milwauke have a 92.9% chance to have the 13th pick in the draft as the lottery approaches. They have the 13th pick if the Kings do not jump into the top four and the Spurs, which is actually the Hawks pick, do not jump into the top four as well. The combination of those two things is 92.9% to happen. So that’s obviously very likely, but not incredibly perfectly likely, for instance. And that combination will put the Hawks at number 13 exactly. Now, there’s also a 3.3% chance that the Hawks will pick 14th in the draft. And that is the chance that the Kings do not jump up, but the Spurs actually go up with the Hawks pick into the top four. If that happens, the Hawks will have the 14th pick instead of the 13th pick. The remaining 3.8% or so, by the way, these are all rounded, but the remaining 3.8% is a chance that the Kings simply jump into the top four. If that happens, the Kings keep their pick and the obligation that they have to Atlanta will roll over to next year and become a top 10 protected pick. So yes, if you want to be the super aim for the Stars person, you could say, well, if the Hawks don’t get the pick this year, maybe they get the 11th pick next year. That’s possible. But I’ll just say bird in the hand on this one. If you get the 13th pick from that trade, that’s a win. You want the 13th 14th pick this year pretty clearly in my opinion. So, also a question that I’ve gotten a lot the last few days. I think people are starting to get on this now. They’re a little bit more like less plugged in, which is totally fine. Welcome aboard. There’s been some confusion on this though. I’ll just say this late. The pick cannot land anywhere between five and 12. Like, it’s not possible for it to land between five and 12. So, if it’s top four, the Kings keep it. If it’s 13 or 14, the Hawks have it. And they cannot go cannot go anywhere else because you’re going into the lottery at 13. You only draw the lottery is only for the top four spots. Once the top four is selected, it’s just the descending order after that. So, it’s either going to be one, two, three, or four, 13, or 14. Very simple. So, the Hawks cannot have the fifth pick, any of that stuff. Um, and when the lottery happens, by the way, we will know very quickly. They will build the drama up probably with a commercial break or two during the lottery drawing to go to the number one pick. Obviously, the Cooper flag sweep stakes is going to be out there. That makes a lot of sense. If you are the Hawks though, the big drama is right away. If you see the Hawks in the 13 to 14, you will know. If they don’t, you will know. And there’ll probably be some narration in the middle, but we will not have to wait long for the Hawks actual result to come up. So, it’s a big day. I don’t want to overstate it. Obviously, like last year’s lottery result for the Hawks, if you missed it, the Hawks jumped from number 10 all the way to win the lottery. That was a very lucky scenario. Um, yes, it was a lottery that nobody necessarily wanted to win more than as much as anybody. you want to win the lottery which I said last year a lot and obviously you do not get reach if you don’t win the lottery last year. So that worked out well for the Hawks. The consensus was and I this is still true in my opinion that there was no can’t miss obvious top number one pick last year that was the case even if I like Richard a lot and I still do in fact I like him even more now than I did a year ago. But there was no flag there was no Zion. There was no AD in that class. This year there is that guy with flags. So, that’s the big drama that you’ll hear. I’m sure it’s going to be wallto-wall Cooper Flag, Dylan Harper coverage tomorrow. That makes sense. But for the Hawks, this is a really, really big deal to either have the 13th pick or not have it. You can trade the pick, but regardless, you want the ass. That’s a very cool That’s a very cruel word. You want the asset. You just do. You want that pick in your stable to either use, trade, package, or whatever. That’s a real big swing that the Hawks will have. um if they don’t have the pick and again 96 plus percent chance. So that’s not 100. I’ll be the first to say that. But obviously the more likely scenario is they actually get that pick at the end of the lottery and we’ll find out once and for all on Monday evening. All right. The rest of the show will be a mailback question talking about the Hawks uh and that pick by the way if they get it. And then also at the end of the show a little bit of a rundown on some prelottery mockdrafts because there’s obviously it’s it’s officially mock draft season. We’re going to all that more in just one moment. NBA fans, you know what time it is. 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And when any player with 50 points or more in a playoff game, if you’re a member of Dash Pass, you can grab a free three-piece Christmas tet combo from Wintop the next day with a $20 plus order. and code wingstop 50. That’s Dash Pass, your door to more savings, more flavor, and more ways to win. Terms apply. All right, so I mentioned this before, a little bit of a breezy show here on Sunday night, a little bit shorter than usual, but a question from Alex, who says, “How likely do you think the Hawks are to trade the 13 to 14 pick in a deal for more immediate veteran help?” and he says, “I have a hunch that the Hawks are are not going to be too tempted to trade the pick given they have a pick at 22 and all signs point to increased urgency to improve the team to compete next season.” So, this question has come in a lot of different ways and different formats and I’m sure it will keep coming, but I wanted to answer it one time now in case they don’t have the pick. So, it might become irrelevant at some point in time. But the other version of this is about packaging the picks to move up and I’ll talk about that at some point as well. Uh but this is this is trading the pick or picks for the future. Sorry, for the present, trading them for a player or players in the immediate term. Broadly speaking, uh it is safe to say this is going to come up during the process between now and June 25th. So this might change based on intel, based on roster stuff, based on the hire of president basketball operations, all that stuff. But anyway, broadly, I would say the Hawks definitely could trade the late lottery pick in a deal for a player that’s more likely to help them win now than a rookie would be. The most recent example for the Hawks doing this was about 10 years ago. They traded a 15th pick in the draft, almost the exact same pick basically for Tim Hardway Jr. And that was not a move that I liked at the time, but they were in the middle of winning. They just won a bunch of games the previous year. They were in a win now kind of cycle with Benhozer taking over all these things. They did that. Now, this is a different this different situation altogether than that was and it was 10 years ago, but it could be the primary chip in a deal that pick or it could be a big sweetener in a bigger transaction overall. And by the way, the same could be said for the other pick the Hawks have. You could still also trade 22. You could trade both picks, but you could also keep 1314 and trade 22 if you don’t want to take two rookies. There’s always philosophical disagreement on that. Um, I am one that will go into this draft saying the Hawks definitely can and maybe even should make two picks. We’ll come back to that in a second, but they certainly could trade the pick no matter what. Now, people hate when I do this, but it has to be said because it’s not responsible otherwise. It is functionally impossible to say too much right now about what the Hawks are likely or unlikely to do based on reporting because they haven’t hired the person that’s going to make make that decision. Just so so not like I I don’t love giving the answer, but it’s pretty logical if the person making the decision or at least making a big part of the decision as the president of basketball operations has not been hired yet. It would be silly to think we know what they’re going to do. We already won’t know for sure, but even the intel, like how can you build out? Obviously, I have people that I talk to in the organization. I know what they think and people around them think. That all matters. But if you bring in somebody from the outside that has a different opinion and they have the juice, it could all change. So, keep that in mind on all of this stuff. Now, I do believe, and this something I said before, in the last few weeks, I think that firing Landry Fields was likely a signal from Tony Wrestler and ownership that they do want to speed up a little bit and win more in the short term. Now, does that mean they’re going to have to trade this pick? No. But there is probably some pressure from the top to get better quickly and win more games. You don’t have to do that, but it’s very natural to kind of assume that. And I’ve heard that’s kind of maybe part of what the part of the story here is that the Hawks want to get better and that’s why they want to do some of this stuff. Now, now they don’t have to trade picks at all. There’s something there’s nothing wrong with making both picks. I’ll say that a lot between now and the and the end of June, I’m sure. I love the draft and scouting prospects and we all have fun with it all the time. But it’s definitely an inexact science. What I mean by that is that there are misses in the draft every single year by every single team. Even the teams that I would describe as really really good front offices or really really good organizations or good drafting teams even everybody misses. Like even teams that I I can go through a list of this, but the Spurs for a long time had a lot of great picks. They have definitely had some high-profile misses. The Thunder have missed on some stuff. Like there are organizations that are definitely better than others. I’ll grant you that. But the draft is I don’t want to call it a crapshoot because it’s not quite that. But you’re going to miss. The Hawks have a pretty interesting record of their own which I’ve gone over a little bit in the last couple of weeks, but they have some really really good picks in the last decade. They also have some really picks that that you wouldn’t they probably want back. Like going back to like Adrien Payne was a disastrous draft pick. Now they traded him that worked out pretty well, but they have some, you know, Torian Prince was a decent pick. The under memory didn’t work out very well. That’s basically this lesson the Hawks had two picks in these ranges. Was that pick was that year they drafted Prince and memory. Was that a terrible Hall? No. Prince became a player that played in the league for a decade, but that wasn’t a fantastic home run hall either. That’s a good example of this. Hawks have also hit on some mid mid to late first round picks. John Collins, Kevin Herder, most famously recently Jaylen Johnson. All of those guys were between 19 and 20. That’s a good spot. Those are all great picks, especially Jaylen and even Collins at at 19 was a grand slam kind of pick. But you also have AJ Griffin who retired. It really wasn’t your fault, but that was a pick that didn’t work out for them. Kobe Buffkin is a TBD. Like they had it’s it’s hits and miss even before that. Like Baby Nugger was a pick in the mid in the mid- first round. Dennis Shruder was a good pick. So like you’re going to miss, you’re going to hit. That’s the nature of the beast. And I say all that because you might just want two swings. Not everybody thinks that way, but if you play the math, you’re probably better off making two picks at 13 and 22 than you would be at like making one pick at eight or nine. We’ll get into that later on with that hypothetical that I’m asked about literally every day right now. But what if we trade up? You can trade up if there’s a guy that you are absolutely in love with. I’m not saying that you can never do that. Occasionally it works. But for me in this class, as we’ll get into more later on, there isn’t that big of a jump for me between like eight because you’re not going to get 13 and 22 won’t won’t get you to three in this draft. That’s not going to happen. You might get to like eight or nine. And for me, there isn’t a giant gap between nine and 13 in this class. For me, I’d rather just stay there and make two picks and try to make a home run or whatever you want to do, multiple multiple swings. Anyway, I know that’s an unsatisfying answer to some degree, but broadly speaking, I think that they definitely could trade one of the picks for immediate help. That’s a spot that would make some logical sense if you don’t want to go in with two rookies. I know there’s always a perm prevailing wisdom that you don’t want to have too many young guys, too many rookies. I don’t subscribe to that, especially because the Hawks don’t have that many young players and they definitely could add two more rookies to this team and be totally fine with that. They don’t have to play. Also, rookies are not going to be designed to help you. That’s something I’ll say all throughout the cycle if you’re if you’re a new listener is that you are not drafting for this season. You are drafting for the three or four years in the future. Rookies generally don’t help you win. Occasionally, you’ll find one that does. It’s usually an older player or whatever. Reese was a good rookie this year and he wasn’t some incredible NBA player even as number one overall pick. He was a good useful player but he wasn’t going to change your life winning games that day. Same thing could be said for like all kinds of Alex Sar who I still think is a good prospect was a actively damaging NBA player for most of the season. Richer couldn’t play in the league was granted was in Houston when they were on a stack team, but the number three overall pick was in the GL all year long. Like Stefan Castle, who won rookie of the year, was not a productive NBA player like by like all the advanced metrics. Doesn’t mean he had a really good rookie season. He’s a really talented player, but like most rookies, especially young rookies, are not going to help you win. And if the Hawks trying to win, then they might want to slant in that direction. Or you’re drafting rookies to be developmental players more so than guys are going to help you in the short term. So, I’ll stop rambling now. I’ll just suffice to say it would not surprise me at all if they traded one of these picks. It also not surprised me at all if they made both picks. So, hold on tight. That’s not a great answer. I understand that. But again, with the shadow cast by the front office hireer that’s happening right now, I can’t tell you with any certainty. And by the way, absolutely no one can tell you because they don’t know who they’re going to hire. And that’s a big big deal in the future. Okay, more to come on a prelotter mock draft roundup in a second, covering all kinds of prospects in this class in just one moment. So, this is brought to you by Monarch Money. We’ve done this in the past, I’m sure. I looked at my bank account and wonder where all the money went. 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And it’s also kind of quick a quick snapshot to kind of illustrate one thing and that’s just how wide the range is. When you have a pick at 13 or 14 and 22, your range is massive. What I mean by that is basically anyone from like I don’t know seven or eight on a consensus board all the way down to like 35 is basically in the range for the Hawks. Like 25 or 30 prospects I think are genuinely in the Hawks range if they have the Kings pick and 22 from the Lakers. That’s a lot of players and it makes life interesting, makes life fun if you’re a sickle like I am. Last year I was casting a wide net until the lottery because the Hawks were in line for the 10th pick and I was like, man, this is going to be a big range. And then they got to number one pick and it was very exciting and we’re all happy about that. I know Hawks fans were thrilled about that. It also narrowed the range a lot. It it basically came down to like five players if that by the end that we talked about for like seven weeks between the lottery and the draft. It was not a huge range. this year. The range is gonna be even if they don’t get the Kings pick, the range of 22 is pretty wide. So anyway, uh none of this stuff is fudged at all. It’s five mock drafts and none of the picks are repeated in these five. Again, Athletic, ESPN, Ringer, Bleacher Report, and Yahoo. So that’s 10 players right there that are projected for the Hawks to pick. I can promise you that number is a lot bigger than that. For example, these guys are not listed on these mocks and I believe are in the Hawks range quickly. These are not any order. Georgia big man Asa Newell, Arizona forward Carter Bryant, French forward Noah Noah, BYU big guard Aor Demon, Yukon wing Liam McNeely, Illinois wing Will Riley, Florida guard Walter Clayton Jr., French forward Noah Penda, Alabama guard Leberon Phylon, Stanford center Maxim Reno, and Washington State wing Cedric Coward who might transfer to Duke if he doesn’t stay in the draft. Now, that isn’t a comprehens comprehensive list either. There’s a lot of guys there, and I didn’t even include anyone that might fall. Like, I know Hawks fans are dreaming about Common Malawak or Conpple or whoever it is. Those guys are projected to be top 10 picks. They could fall. That’s very possible. So, the range is very, very big. I say all that to say hold on tight. Don’t get attached to one prospect. I recommend that at this point in time, but a run up here quickly at 13. These are the guys who were projected. Thomas Sorber from the Athletic and San Bini. Json from ESPN and Jonathan Washerman and Jeremy Woo. Rashir Fleming from the Ringer. Colin Murray Boils from John Washerman Report. And Casperis Yakosonus from Yahoo. Quickly, Sorber is a Georgetown big man. Not a sevenfooter, but Hawks fans, some of them want. I get that. But his center prospect does a lot of things well on offense, on defense. He’s got big broad shoulders, good passer. I like him a lot. Him and Con not the perfect fit together, but I think that would be like somewhat tenable. And I just like Thomas Orber. That’s a possibility. Richardson from Michigan State, kind of kind of a combo guard, was great the second half of the season, high level shooter, kind of a combo guard, but like not a nuclear athlete. We’ll see on that, but a guy that certainly is worth the investment if nothing else. Rashir Fleming is a 69 bulky power forward from St. Joseph’s. Shot it well this year. Not like a crazy athlete, but definitely could defend with physicality and shoot it. Role player type, but certainly an interesting player. Colin Marie Boils is a Tyler Jones favorite. Uh, friend of the podcast of course, but a 68 like power for power powerful forward. Um, good passer, good rebounder, scored well at South Carolina, but like kind of can’t shoot, but defensively like potentially is awesome. For example, Yakosonus from Illinois, big 65 guard, not a great defender, but not totally lost there and has a great um kind of stable of skills on ball passing, etc., etc. That’s 13th pick. That’s five guys like huge hugely wide range. No one that would enrage me on that list, etc. All right, number 22. Overall, Ben Sif was the pick for the Athletic and Sanvicini. Sarap is like more of a long-term bet, kind of a big guard 19-year-old, really talented, but certainly a futurefacing swing, a guy that probably will not help you much at all next season. But if you go a little bit safer at 13, maybe you take a little bit more of a swing at 22. It’s not always that simple, but if you were to go with a bigger swing at 13, maybe go a little bit safer at 22. Like, you don’t have to do that, but it’s kind of logical if you think about it. You could be one more risky pick, one more safer pick. And safe gets overused a lot in NBA draft circles. Very few guys are actually safe, but more projectable, for example. But I like Sarif. Definitely more of a swing, but a talented guy. Uh ESPN had Nick Clifford, who was awesome this year at Colorado State. Older guy, wing player, like 22, 23 years old, but had huge numbers this year. Can pass it, can shoot it, defend. He’s just old, but I like him quite a bit. I think he’s gonna be a good a good role player in the NBA for a long time. Nolan Trayor of the Ringer, 6-3, sorry, from the Ringer. 63 French guard. Another kind of a swingy guy. Uh, good defensive tools for sure. Real up outside as a guard. More long-term bet. Could be gone by then. Obviously, like a lot of these guys could be, but an interesting kind of future facing bet who’s again French maybe connection with Risha, all those things. Um, Danny Wolf was the pick for Report and John Wasserman. Michigan big man, the very rare like seven footish guy who can actually run a pick and roll as a as a ball handler, has some nice flash passes, scored well at Michigan, but turns the ball over a lot. And also for a guy who is as big as he is, is not a great defender at all and isn’t a great shooter either. So kind of an interesting skill set, very skilled player, kind of hawky, kind of quinny, like the way that he can kind of dribble, pass, and shoot to some degree, but also some flaws. Like a polarizing guy for sure, but definitely a 22 with a 22 would be totally reasonable. Um, and then the last one from Yahoo is Yako Lindborg, who actually might not stay in the draft. He’s probably probably along with Cedric Coward, like the two guys who were like first roundish picks who might go back to school. Uh, Lindberg was actually at UAB before. He’s going to transfer to Michigan, and that’s might be why he might not stay in the draft. He’s gonna get paid a lot in Michigan by all accounts, but a kind of a big 69 forward, can handle the ball, versal offensive player, like had huge numbers, good rebounder, blocks and steals guy, like did a lot of things well at a lower level this year, but is a very interesting player. So, um, how much of a shooter he is is like kind of a question, but certainly can do a lot of different things. So, that’s a snapshot very very quickly in in short fashion of all these guys, but I just named the 10 guys they picked. So, in these fake mock drafts and then another 15 20 guys that they were like certainly in range to take. I have my favorites. I’m sure you do as well. But, uh, big big wide range. And by the way, I can guarantee you maybe I’ll do this a couple in a couple days. All these mock drafts will change over and we’ll have new names. Obviously the if the top shakes up, if there’s like a big surprise in the top five, it trickles down. If somebody falls at the combine, somebody measures poorly or measures well or plays well. Most guys won’t play at the combine. I should say that. Most like top 10, 15, 20 picks don’t scrimmage at the combine, but more guys than ever are going to the combine to at least get measured. And that’s different than it has been. Like for instance, in like 2020, 21, 22, no one was going to the combine. Now, we’re getting measurements for the guys, which will be very helpful in the future. But long story short, big wide range. And the big thing, as I said before, and I’ll say it again, is will the Hawks have two picks? Because if they don’t, that’ll be unfortunate and we’ll have to kind of do another year of scouting the Kings and all that fun stuff. But in the meantime, everyone’s holding their breath and the Hawks want that 13th pick, which is again likely to happen, but not a guarantee until we see the Hawks flash on the screen on Monday evening. All right, everybody. Thanks for listening. As always, please subscribe to this podcast anywhere you find your podcast, Apple, Spotify, YouTube, etc. Please tell your friends about the show for sure. Follow the show on X/ Twitter at Lan Hawks. Follow me there at at BT Roland, I should say. Follow me on Blue Sky at BT Roland. And I also have some nonpodcast Hawkswork when it comes to writing, extra audio, etc. at patreon.com/btoland. All right, everyone. I’ll have a podcast at some point late Monday night into Tuesday and we’ll see everybody next time.

Brad Rowland (@BTRowland) hosts Episode 1972 of the Locked on Hawks podcast, peeking ahead to the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery on Monday night. Topics include the odds involving the Atlanta Hawks, the latest mock draft projections, and the chances the Hawks could use a pick in a trade for short-term help.

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