2025 NBA Draft Lottery: Best and Worst Case Results for the Sacramento Kings

2025 NBA Draft Lottery: Best and Worst Case Results for the Sacramento Kings

Uh, in the meantime, Jason Ross, what a difference 24 hours could make as the NBA draft lottery is tonight. You’ve got the uh you got a couple of games tonight. You got Warriors and Timberwolves. Timberwolves uh at 7:00, Celtics Knicks at 4:30. I believe it’s halftime of Celtics Knicks, right, that the draft lottery is. So, somewhere around 6:00ish, give or take a few minutes. We will know. The Sacramento Kings have uh I think it’s before the Celtics. Oh, is it before? It’s not halftime. Okay. I I think I don’t know what the hell I’m talking about. Uh the Sacramento Kings have virtually awful odds. Yeah. Like, it’s not that they have no chance, Jason. It’s just that they pretty much have no chance uh of of picking at any higher than I think what 12th to 13th. Uh yeah, they can’t. The only options are what are they going in 13 or 12? Uh 13. Yeah. So they’re either picking Well, their name is either going to show up first at 14 if they went back one, which those odds are really low. Y uh or 13 and then one, two, three, or four. That’s it. Those are their choices. Now, if it’s 13 or 14, that’s going to Atlanta, which is what is expected, and that’ll finally be done. But the best case scenario, I guess, would be to not see the Kings name at 14. And then certainly at 13, then, you know, they’ve moved into the top four. They’ll make it to the commercial. Keon Ellis, as we said earlier, is the Kings representative, and he’d be one of the four people left and um for about 5 to 10 minutes, everybody’ be going nuts on social media. The second pick king’s pick. The third pick. How many uh Sims did it take me to get to that? Nine. I’m gonna go with six this time. 10. Oh, okay. It’s getting lower. So, they have a 0.8% chance of landing the number one pick. It’s not great. And that pick, as you said, is going to Atlanta. Would you rather? Yeah. If they move up, it’s not. Yeah. Would you rather Yeah. Would you rather them move back to 14th and you find out right away? Can they pick Can they pick 12th? No. Okay. So, it’s 13 14 or 1 2 3 4. So, would you rather find out they pick 14th and get out of the way or would you rather 14th it’s not them and then find out 14th would be kind of funny just because it’s worse for Atlanta? Uhhuh. Yeah. I mean going backwards is is I think the odds are as bad or as or even worse than getting the top four. I I would rather them pick 14th if Wait a minute. If I’m not If it’s 14th and that means the Atlanta jumps up and No, but you know what? Here’s that. No, that’s the scenario. That’s it, Chris. Thank you. I think it’s If it’s 14, that is the worst thing that could happen to Atlanta because the Kings would go back to 14. That’s Atlanta. That means Atlanta’s pick is in the top four. That’s the Spurs. Oo. Oh my god. That would be the worst scenario for Atlanta. My god. That’s right. So, they lost one spot technically and then their pick is going to the Spurs. God, if I was a Hawks fan, which there’s like five, but still I that would depress me. Uh 40 and 42 were the Sacramento Kings this year. As we said, a 0.8% chance of winning the lottery. Uh all right, let’s see how long it takes me to get top fours. We have a lottery simulator right here. Uh the Kings right now, uh after one of those, the Kings are picking 13th is a great radio. Uh, the Kings are picking 13th. That’s number two. The Kings are picking 13th. That’s three. 13th. That’s four. 13th. That’s five. 13th. That’s six. 7. 8. 9. 10. Simulations. The Kings are still at 13th. 11. 12. Uh, 13. 14. It’s going to be on the 16th. 15. Jason’s calling it. 16th. 17. 18. Kings are still picking 13. 19. 20. No way. 21. I’m in this going with the odds. Yeah. 22. 23. Uh, the Sacramento Kings on the 24th. Spin of the wheel. move up 10 spots and pick Ace Bailey with the number three pick. Small forward out of Runners. Well, maybe it’s that ping pong ball situation. By the way, if the Kings did move up, it would absolutely not be for number one just cuz like But wouldn’t you take four? Absolutely. No, absolutely. I’m just saying like they’d move up and for the next 10, 15 minutes, this whole city is going absolute a blank. And then, weirdly enough, there we’d find a way. Here’s how it would go. It would be like a let down. Yes. You know, it would be, you know, it wouldn’t be Look, it wouldn’t be a you you you’d be let down. You’d be upset for about 10 minutes and then it’d be like, “Hey, man, we got really lucky.” Okay, here’s the one. Would you rather have Okay, so somehow they’re not 13 or 14, so they’re making the commercial. They’re they’re that long wait. They come back. If they’re not gonna be one, would you rather hear it at four? So, it’s the quick, you know, emotional letdown or it gets to two. There’s two left. Even though I think you’d rather have the second I would, you’re right. No, I hear what you would be like, oh my gosh, cuz every time they open up a new uh envelope and it’s not them, it like gosh, they got number one. Homer to one. I get it, but I I’d still rather the have the higher pick, but I completely get it. I think there’s something about the Kings have moved up a couple times. They moved up in the Keegan draft. They moved up obviously in the Baggley one. Um, and the Fox one. They had three times in the last what decade or so that they’ve had some lottery luck after years of not having any, but this one is the longest odds. And I feel like if they got in the top four, it just would feel like you did win something. The off seasonason has already started with hiring of Scott Perry and Doug Christie, and it’s like, does this feel like a fresh start? I I don’t know what it would feel like if that happens tonight. Well, let’s also remember the Kings pick to Atlanta was top 12 is top 12 protected. Uh the Kings finished at 40 and 42. Uh that’s one game behind Dallas and Chicago for the 1112. I think it’s important to point out the Kings won four of their last six games. They beat Charlotte, Cleveland, Detroit, and Phoenix on the final day. And it’s easy to, you know, second guess, especially with the way that that worked out with Dallas, but I’m pretty sure in hindsight we all would have taken them losing out. Uh I I I personally don’t equate that home loss against Dallas as worth a first round pick. And but that’s yeah the opportunity at the time was like okay you win this game you win the next one. Okay. Right. But they did not win the first one. They got embarrassed at home. If they won though to your point you’re right. It would be a completely fresh start. Yeah. And I mean it also gives you options. Look, I I think if um you’re a top four team, I would assume, it’s an assumption, but I would assume they’d want to take that selection because you’ve got a young player, you’ve got a what’s supposed to be a pretty good draft, a deep draft under contract control. There’s a lot of positives for having a lottery pick. If you get a player that works out for you, also makes you wonder what you do with it. I mean, if you could trade it, if you have the number one pick, you’re drafting Cooper Flag. I mean, you kind of have to, unless, you know, Milwaukee calls, then you’re having a conversation. But they get the two, the three, the four. I don’t know. Maybe you’re looking at, well, if we attach this to that, we could do this. We could do that. I don’t know. Um, summer league’s now in play. We’re going to Vegas, right? We’re going to Vegas if that happens. Uh, there’s a lot of different things that And honestly, this damn franchise deserves some. the fans, I should say, deserve they deserve a feel good. Yeah, they really do. If it’s on Well, this would be that. That’s for sure. It would. And uh I think we said it and I don’t know if we agreed, but the thought of also knowing going back to like the last couple games, had the Kings won, beating Dallas then and then beating uh I forgot who it would have been Memphis in Memphis. Y then it would have been go through OKC. Yes. And I think at the time I said like winning the lottery will be like trying to get through that gauntlet. Like the odds would have been Yes. Obviously the Kings didn’t even get through the first game, but beating Memphis would have been difficult and somehow beating OKC four times. Yeah. I don’t think it would have happened. No, the odds were really low just like the odds are very low tonight. Right. And that’s and that’s where it was binary for I understand. That’s where it was binary for people like me. Uh because I I do think in black and white’s generally about this stuff. Like that’s why I did want them to tank because a first round thrashing against the Thunder. In my mind, I go, “Okay, the Sacramento Kings trade uh a top 12 first round pick and better odds at winning the lottery in exchange for two playin wins and a thrashing in the first round where they maybe win one game against Oklahoma City.” Like I fully acknowledge that’s one really good feelgood moment at home over Dallas. Uh then a feel good on the road, some great radio for a few days, some fun. Yeah. And then they get killed against the Thunder and it’s like, okay, well, was that worth it? Yeah. Not to me. But then even then you think about like Utah who had the worst record, their odds are 14%. It’s not great. No, it’s not. It’s not. Crazy. It It really is. And it makes you wonder. I mean, we have a tanking issue in the NBA, so I don’t want to reward the the losers necessarily, but golly. And then now, as you said, we know San Antonio is going to win this thing or get close or something. And my god, Cooper flag. Yeah. To go with those guys. Then they turn around and pull off a deal for Web Minyama. Right. Just say good night. Well, that leads into our worst case scenario, for sure. Here we go. Coming up next, what is the worst case scenario for the Sacramento Kings tonight and everything surrounding that? We’ll get to it next. Jason Ross, he has a lot of pretty smart things to say. He’s good at what he does on Sack Town Sport. You are good at what you do, Jason. I agree. I agree with the completely random and authentic listener. Uh, the Thunder have a 36% chance of receiving a top 10 pick based off tonight’s lottery results. If the Sixers are chosen before number six overall, their pick goes to Oklahoma City thanks to the Al Horford salary dump in 2020. By the way, the Kings have a 92% chance of remaining at number 13. Okay. And giving that pick to Atlanta. So, is that the worst case scenario, Jason, that the the Kings pick uh 13th and see you later? No, I think I mean, one of the positives of the what the odds suggest today is then that’s done. Right now, the Kings have finished off that trade, they have flexibility to trade future first round picks. Um, that would be that part. But I think if you’re looking at worst case Mhm. scenarios u and also the Kings then would only have a second round pick. But the worst case scenarios I I look at other teams in the West like look Utah’s the best chance as far as odds. Uh I mean if Cooper flag and they win it. I mean good for them. They they still have a ways to go but I’m thinking of New Orleans who was really injured last year winning. I’m thinking of um Houston has a chance with Phoenix’s pick of winning. San Antonio can do a scenario where they get one and two or one and four or one and three. I mean, that’s crazy to me. And then the one you just mentioned, OKC can move up there. Here’s one. Yeah. Okay. I’m trying to think this through because it sounds like a stupid question on the surface, but if you ask me which is a worst case scenario for people in the West, the Thunder getting the number one pick or the Spurs getting the number one pick, I have to think about it for a second. It’s the Thunder, I think, because of where they are right now. Yeah, they’re way far along. But my god, you add Cooper flag on the Spurs to go with everything else they have right now. I think at that point they just don’t even go for Why would they go for Giannis? You’ve got you got so much under I mean I want to say isn’t Darren Fox the highest paid player on that team? I think. Um and you got Webman. That’s the other thing too is they’re so damn young, right? That you’ve got you’ve got so much on that team that is I mean they they they had the number 27 payroll in the league last year. Yeah. Fox is the highest paid player by 10 million uh next year followed by Vel and uh uh Kell Johnson 27 and 17. Barnes is making 19, but Wemanyama and Wemanyama in three years is going to be making $23 million. What if the f What if the Spurs trade Fox to Milwaukee to make the So, we were talking about earlier, which would be hilarious. The problem is Milwaukee doesn’t Milwaukee doesn’t do it. Huh. But they’re just trying to get like It’s just like, hey, we got everything we want. We’re just throwing him in here to make the contracts match. That would actually be kind of funny. And then watch him play for Houston in two years. Yeah. Um, so that would leave the Kings with a second round pick. Yeah. Which is what the expectations are right at this point. But yeah, I mean, if you see Houston, San Antonio, New Orleans get it as opposed to, you know, if number one goes to Washington or Charlotte, I mean, we won’t see Cooper flag much, but at least he’s in the East. uh Utah or Portland. They’re a little bit further away, but Portland’s not that far away uh from getting there. You know, an intriguing one would be the Wizards because they’ve just kind of getting lottery pick after lottery pick and still in the lottery. That’s one of those teams that I think would be that would make it rather interesting because you’re right, they have had lottery pick after lottery pick, but you start to see like a little bit of a light at the end of the tunnel with them. Maybe Charlotte, as you just said, would be interesting. uh Utah, you know, again, as a Kings fan, if you can’t have it, you probably don’t want that one pick going in the West, right? You want Flag in the East. Uh but then then also too, I mean, there’s just no there’s no complete guarantee that Cooper Flag’s going to be the best player in this draft. We think he will be. It sounds like he will be. Certainly looks like that. He’s 18 and a half years old. Uh and just an absolute complete player um on both sides of the ball. like he just he really you’re talking about high basketball IQ, tremendous athletic ability, a competitor, the motor on both sides is ridiculous. He doesn’t take plays off. Uh he knows how to score, he knows how to defend, he knows how to block shots. Uh at 69. I mean, he’s the ultimate swing man. Uh that that that projects to have a long long career in this league. And I think that career would be the best here. Yeah. Exactly. Yeah. Um I’d love to see the Kings have that choice, but um also looks like a guy defensively that can play multiple positions, switch on multiple guys. Yes. Um yeah, I mean he’s the prize. He’s the prize of this draft, but like I said earlier, it’s supposed to be a good draft. Some pretty good depth there. And um you know, I I will be excited for it. I mean, I I know the reality is the odds are really really rough, but as uh as those picks are called, it’s just always intriguing to see if in fact the Kings get lucky. And I would say to everybody, I look, nobody’s going to nobody’s going to not get excited, nor would I ask them to. Just just, you know, it’s the hope that kills you. Just remember what franchise it is. Obviously, remember the odds. I think it’s work. Okay, let me paint this way. I’m going to be hopeful and optimistic. I don’t think it’s going to happen. Sure. But that’s my approach. So, it’s like again, if the Kings get called right away, like, okay, I was hopeful, but it’s done. Whereas the year when they won 17 games and they by far had the worst record, the best one, they had the best odds to get number one and they got four. That was really disappointing. Yep. That sucked. Like tonight, I don’t think is going to be I don’t think I’ll be disappointed. I’ll be only thrilled or it’s like, yeah, that’s probably where I thought they were gonna be 13th. So, they don’t get to pick. I mean, maybe, you know, disappointed maybe slightly. Not not to the level of like if I if we were in Utah today, we’re thinking about Cooper flag. That’s right. That’s right. That’s how well or Charlotte or Washington. I I compared it before like when you buy a lot ticket, you know you’re not winning, right? you know, it’s usually the same bit like, oh, these the lucky numbers, right? I’ll come back and split with you, you know, to the person you buy it from. You know, you’re not winning, but you also allow yourself a couple times during the week to just daydream about what what you’d do if you did. Now, by the way, uh the Kings have far far better odds at at getting Cooper flag than we would at winning the lotto. Yeah, I would take those lotto odds every day of the week. But there even then when I see those number like I’m looking at my I got like a a 10 p I put 10 bucks down on the lotto. I’m I’m feeling good. That’s 10 spaces, right? And then I end up getting like two combined numbers. Yeah. But you’re thinking of your two home location. So you warm weather, cold weather. That’s right. The whole thing. Here’s where I’m going to live. If Jason wins the lottery, he tells Dave, “Hey, I’m going to pay for your kid’s school, but she’s got to transfer.” Nope. She’s got to transfer. Sorry, kid. Sorry, kid. Yeah. Sorry, kid. Would she do it? Um, she wouldn’t have a choice. Would she do it? Fully funded. Fully funded. Yeah. Get out of here. All six years. Yeah. Please. What? Yeah. You’re done. Um, so it’ll be similar to tonight. You know, I’m allowing myself to dream about Cooper flag in a Kings uniform, what it would look like, h how how crazy tomorrow’s show would be, how crazy the next week or two would be, the optimism and the enthusiasm. Hell, uh the the the camera shots we would certainly see on social media of wherever the King salespeople are gathering at to watch the draft lottery just go berserk. Um, every team does that with their their people. It would be amazing, right? And then when it doesn’t happen, I’m going to be I’m going to I’m going to be like legit, not depressed generally about it, but just like, yeah, of course not. All right. And then in my head, I’ll just be kind of glazed over watching the rest of it. And just in my head, I’ll have the thoughts like, yet again, God hates Sacramento. Of course, it wasn’t going to happen. You don’t get to have nice things. You probably would have screwed it up anyway. Remember Pervis Ellison? Did I leave the oven on? You have a lot of thoughts. There’s a sale at Pennies. Do I need another pair of shoes? What’s my cheat day? Me. Right. Like, you know, come on. Oh, by the way, what did you do Friday? I had a bad day Friday, dude. Bad day as far as I had the fattest day I’ve had on. So, you went for You had two meals. So on the way out lunch and dinner poorly. I left here. I left here and I had to go to Valo for golf and I got so hungry. So I went to Wendy’s and I got the $7 bag of whatever with the uh the root beer fries uh and a burger junior bacon chi and uh the nuggets. Okay. How’s that? No problem. Yeah. Okay. And then on the way home, you know, I leave and I’m still so hungry. So we gota because I got to go home and go that I’m going to took the kids to that Disturb concert. Oh, that’s right. No, no nappy. I’m I’m tired, dude. But I’m so hungry again. Like I just hadn’t, you know, that was all I had. And finally, I’m like, screw it. Cuz Mel Melissa had gotten pizza. So I was like, man, I don’t even have a lot of time to eat the pizza with traffic. So I go to Carl’s. Oh, wow. What’d you get there, dude? I’m so ashamed. I got the famous star combo with cheese, no no lettuce, no tomato, fried zucchini instead of French fries. Uh, I went large so I could get the large zucchini and large root beer. And then, you know what? Just felt like it. I uh I got a chocolate shake. Oh man, I’m out of cash. And I also forgot that Wendy’s is having a two chocolate chunk cookies for $1 deal if you buy a value meal. I forgot I had the cookies. So I house the the the the value meal which has got to be like 1,400 calories. And then you worked it off in golf. Yeah, but this is after golf. I know. And then I’m eating the ch I’m eating the chocolate chunk cookies with the shake and then there was bad traffic. And then I get home and I go take a shower, get ready for the game or for the concert. And then on the way out the door, I grab a piece of sausage and pepperoni and I’m like eating it on the way like I’m popcorn at the concert. As a matter of fact, yes, there was popcorn in the concert. He’s a big boy. Yeah, it was it was bad, dude. Like honestly, I got so much fatter Friday. I just was I that’s the I don’t mind eating healthy, but it’s the hardest part is making it, having it accessible, right? We don’t have enough. Are there any healthy drive-throughs? And I’m not going to McDonald’s and getting a salad. Just not doing it. Why don’t we have a healthy drive-thru where I can go get like rice and chicken? Yeah. Who would go to that? I would. Am I the only one that would go to that? Panda. Yeah, kind of. But do they have drive-throughs? Yeah. Oh, they do. Not Not all of them. A few. All right. We’ll take a break from the 916. I love when Dave uses it’s the hope that kills you. It because it is. It’s the hope that kills you. Don’t hope. Hope is hope is hope is overrated. When we come back, hey, Derek Carr retired and uh we got a lot to talk about there. Raider fan. I want to talk to you because I don’t get why you don’t like him so much. We’ll talk about it next. On the move.

On this Monday edition of The Carmichael Dave Show with Jason Ross, the guys discuss what happened in the NBA playoffs over the weekend, the New York Yankees coming to Sacramento to take on the A’s, tonight’s NBA Draft lottery, and more.

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