The Trail Blazers Land the 11th Pick in the 2025 NBA Draft | Welp | Locked On Blazers Podcast

The Trail Blazers Land the 11th Pick in the 2025 NBA Draft | Welp | Locked On Blazers Podcast

In today’s show, the Trailblazers drop in the lottery and land with the 11th pick in the 2025 NBA draft. There is no joy in Mudville. Welcome to Locked on Blazers. Let’s get into it. You are Locked on Trailblazers, your daily Portland Trailblazers podcast, part of the Locked On podcast network. Your team every day. What’s up world? It’s your past verse point guard and trailblazers reporter Mike Richmond. You’re listening to another episode of Locks on Blazers, part of the Locked on Podcast Network, available wherever you get podcasts and also on YouTube. Thanks for making this show your first listen coming at you each and every weekday Monday through Friday. So make it a part of your daily routine. Make it your first listen. Tell your friends to do the same. It’s locked on Blazers, your team every day. In today’s program, the Blazers drop in the lottery and finish with will land. They land they’ll finish with who knows what they’ll finish. They land with the 11th pick in the 2025 NBA draft. They did not overcome the odds. In fact, their second most likely outcome came out and the Blazers will have the 11th selection in the draft. We will talk all about that and then some today. Uh, we’ll talk about what it means, who landed where, uh, how w whack the lottery results really were. We’ll talk history of the 11th pick, both for the Blazers and the league at large. Plus, the early return mock drafts for your prognosticators churning it out immediately after the lottery. See where who whom the Blazers are selecting according to the folks who are paid to make these type of predictions. Let’s talk about the lottery though first. I am not a believer that the lottery is rigged and and quite frankly I won’t really entertain that notion. Um if you do believe that the lottery is rigged I will say certainly have some fodder for that belief after today’s results this evening’s results. Um go share that with your friends. I don’t care about it nor do I want to hear about it. I will offer this as as just a as a blanket rebuttal. Tell me about a rigged league when the Wolves and Pacers play in the NBA finals. Tell me about a rigged league when Oklahoma City and Cleveland play in the NBA finals. Go ahead and tell me. I would love to hear about the the league being rigged when I’m watching the freaking Wolves play the Pacers in the NBA Finals. Okay, enough that. That’s for y’all, not for me. The Mavs got the number one pick in the draft. The thing, this thing is freaking rigged. The Dallas Mavericks with a 1.8% chance to land the top overall pick. Of course, they did it. Spurs end up second. Sixers third, Hornets fourth, Jazz fifth, Wizards sixth, New Orleans seventh. Yuck. followed by Brooklyn, Toronto at nine, Phoenix 10, the Blazers at 11, 12, Chicago, 13 is uh the Kings pick going to the Hawks, and 14 the Spurs will pick again courtesy of the Hawks. But I think those top seven is what I want to focus on right now. I I mentioned that I, you know, it’s I’m not a believer in in the rigging or the league fixing this this nonsense or whatever. It’s like there’s so many reasons why I don’t believe it. But um I am not um I’m not going to sit here and pretend to be deeply impartial. In fact, I will quote myself a text message I sent to two friends separately. Not a group chat, but separate text messages. Type this phrase out twice. Extremely cursed top three. I don’t want to see this nonsense. I don’t want to see the Mavs get a the get Cooper flag. Nah. The Spurs again always notoriously lucky. San Antonio, get out of here. and the Sixers getting the third overall pick after the season that they had and the franchise that they are like well I I may be in some ways um like Blazers agnostic and not like um uh and can be sort of I don’t know unemotional or whatever when it comes it comes to the old pin wheels like I still have plenty of biases right and I think in some ways you look at this lottery and it’s either the death of tanking or proof that the Blazers should have lost more. It’s sort of a roar shock test for what you want to believe. Like I said, the ma the maps were rewarded with the top pick in this draft, a generation potentially generational player. Like I I don’t think Cooper Flag has any elite skills, but he is big and does everything well. And maybe just that combination of no holes in your game makes you elite. Like I think he’s going to be very very good. He’s going to be very, very good. Stinks. And the Mavs get rewarded for one of the stupidest seasons in league history. They give away Luca Donuch over the cover of darkness for no reason whatsoever. And maybe there was a great reason to trade him, but the way they went about trading him makes no sense. was one of the stupidest moves an NBA team could make and they’re rewarded with the number one pick in the draft. That sucks. The Spurs notoriously lucky. I mean, they just they just move up in every draft. Um, you’re going to have to explain to me why the league keeps rigging it for the San Antonio Spurs, which is that’s a a basketball team that’s located in San Antonio, Texas. You know, at some point, uh, one of you deep conspiracy theorists will have to explain to me. Don’t please don’t do not contact me with this information. I’m I’m joking. Uh but you have to explain to me why um why the league is is fixing it for the freaking Spurs. Um yeah, the Sixers an absolute debacle of a season. They end up third. Like they deserve got nothing to do with it. So if if you look at that right think like well you know these teams didn’t tank and they’re rewarded. This is the death of tanking. This is exactly what everyone was saying to you all year, Michael, is that like, you know, when you were pining for the Blazers to lose more games and not every single game, but you know, like five or six more. Um, you’re an idiot because even the teams that, you know, these the these teams are rewarded regardless. And moreover, the Jazz with the worst record in the league, who were the most the most just shameless tankers all season long, you know, sitting healthy players, only playing their veterans against good teams when they felt like they were going to lose anyway. And then there like the heavy youngsters against bad teams. They got fined for making up injuries about Lowry Markin. Like truly, truly egregious stuff. They dropped a fifth. The worst case scenario for them. That was as far as they could fall. That was the most likely outcome. I believe 25% chance is somewhere in that range of falling to fifth. You tank because of the 14%, you fall to five because of the math. The Wizards maybe not as sort of egregious in their tanking, but they did like the sort of more natural way that you lose a bunch of games, which is you just don’t build a competitive enough roster, right? You don’t build a competitive enough roster. They just never had a chance to be competitive. they were particularly bad, but they just, you know, don’t don’t put don’t put enough good players on on straight up on the team such that you can play them and be a little bit better. They dropped a six. The Hornets with the third worst odds, they’re the only team that that, you know, that didn’t fall out of the top four. Um, and they end up fourth behind those other, you know, be behind the absolutely insulting top three ahead of them. That the Hornets haven’t won a playoff series since 2002. That’s five presidential elections ago. Kidding me. Um, it’s it’s been a while. New Orleans, who fell all the way to seventh, had the fourth worst record in the league, the fourth best lottery odds entering tonight, and they had an absolute nightmare season, and they fall to seventh. In terms of like expectations versus where they ended up, I would say that Utah, Washington, and New Orleans had much worse nights than the Portland Trailblazers. So, some tankers were punished, some non-lossers were rewarded. Certainly true. Is this the death of tanking? I don’t think I see it that way. Roarshock test. Every other team than the Mavs, who’s ahead of the Blazers in the lottery, finished with a worst record. The only team that jumped them was the Dallas Mavericks. You know, obviously the Spurs jumped higher up into the lottery. Sixers jumped higher up in the lottery, but those team those teams had better lottery odds going in. San Antonio and and Philadelphia did. The Mavs with their 1.8% chance and and behind the Blazers to begin the day, they’re the only team that jumped ahead of them. The math is the math. And let’s be 100% clear here. The Blazers chose this path. This is a path they chose. They chose to keep on, you know, attempting to win games. You don’t just like magically hit the win button, right? But but they didn’t do these sort of egregious things they’ve done in past seasons in order to lose. They didn’t sell off uh useful players just to be actively bad. Like they didn’t they didn’t they didn’t do the capital Tanking stuff that they had done the past the past few seasons. They noly walked this path. an 81.9% chance to finish at 10 or 11. They finished at 11. 18 12% chance. The second most likely outcome on the board was that the Blazers would fall from 10 to 11. That one team behind them would jump and they’d fall from 10 to 11. That was the most second most likely outcome. The most likely outcome is that is that they would stay at 10. 63.4% chance. But this was it. They went in with an 82% chance to finish right where they did. And that’s what they did. This was the second most likely outcome. and it came out. This has been reported by um some folks who are in the room, including I saw Ben Goliver of the Washington Post report this that the Blazers were one combination away from finishing first. One combination away. They had the first three numbers in the combo. The last number was the Mavs combination. If that last number flips and it happens to be it could have either been Washington or Portland could have jumped up. You could play that game if you want. I think you could play that. The Blazers were one combination away in the Weby draft as well, right? They certainly were. They’re one one combination away, right? That that’s that’s I think that’s true reporting based on how the stuff works. But that ain’t what happened. They chose to do this. They chose in some ways to like, you know, they they lost a game on purpose on a Friday evening against the the Bulls and then they went out to win a game on Sunday afternoon, two days later against the Spurs. They lose that game. You might be talking flip-flopping odds, right? Chase them down. I know that I am in way and you know like the team should lose on purpose. Yeah. I mean it’s gross, right? But the league has perverse incentives and if the Blazers had been a little more committed to those perverse incentives, the teams just ahead of them in the lottery climbed climbed. The Blazers chose this path. bad luck rigging whatever the Portland Trailblazers said this is kind of what we’re we’re aiming for and come what may this is what came they they are reaping what they hath sowed so is it the death of tanking or the need to do more of it a roar shock test I want to get into episodes later this week about what the players are going to do at 11 but I think it’s important to set some expectations when you have the 11th pick in the draft. What the heck should you even expect? Let’s go back to some history to history books, the last decade or so of 11th picks to kind of set the stage. There’s some real stinkers in there and there’s an MVP and a Hall of Famer. Uh while they’re not predictive, I think it might be useful to visit. So, join me and we will take a visit. Plus, we’ll talk about the Blazers history with the 11th pick as well. Join me in that second segment, won’t you? First though, let’s talk hungry root. Listen, life’s busy. 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You can set goals and you can stay on the same page for what those goals are without all the stress. Take control your finances with Monarch Money. Use code locks on NBA@ monarchmoney.com for 50% off your first year. That’s monarchmoney.com and the code is locked on NBA for half off your first year. All right. I think one of the challenges of you know your team drops in the lottery, right? Yeah. Cooper flag dreams. You know, yesterday’s show I did all this manifesting about Cooper Flag and a lot of good that did me. No, I’m just kidding. It’s it’s fun to have fun. Uh, I’m pro I’m pro positivity even if I can be a little negative sometimes. I think it’s it’s important to tap into your joy when you are capable of it. Yesterday I was capable of it. Today I’m more of a realist. But I think it’s important. It’s like when you have those Cooper flag dreams, you have those Dylan Harper dreams and and and the Blazers now, you know, dropped down to 11, right? And it’s like, dang it. I can’t believe it. Um, and and certainly this is bad news for for for you know, just like as the obvious. I’m not going to sit here and sell you that it’s tell you or tell you or sell you that it’s like it’s actually good. You know what? The 11th pick’s good. Here are five reasons why you’d rather pick 11 than four. Um that’s that’s not what I’m going to be doing here. But I do think um I do think putting like expectations into perspective about what you’re hoping for at 11 can help kind of uh ease some of your anxiety a little bit hopefully. Some of that is just to think about like who goes 11. I looked back at the last, you know, 11 11th overall picks I knew off the top of my head. Cam Johnson, shout out to Kobe White. Cam Johnson went 11. I knew Shay Gildis Alexander went 11. I knew Myers Leonard went 11. But I looked back from that Myers Leonard draft little little bit just before that and kind of looked at the recent or the that stretch of of of 14 years of draft picks since 2011. Random cutoff, right? Just a r just a totally kind of arbitrary cutoff. But I think it gives you a sense of expectations. Who’s gone 11th? Well, last year it was Matis Bazellis to the Chicago. I I think Matis looks like a player. Um, I don’t know how good of a player, but I think he’s like I think he’s going to be a positive NBA player for a long time. I thought he was pretty darn good down the stretch for the Bulls. Jet Howard went 11 in 2023 to shooter for the Magic that hasn’t really materialized as a shooter. Usman Jen went to uh uh the Thunder in 2022. James Bnight in 2021 went to the Charlotte. Devin Vel before that to the Spurs. Cam Johnson won 11, was traded to the Suns on draft night. Uh Shay Gildis Alexander uh was traded to the Clippers on draft night. He went 11th overall. Malik Monk was a Hornets pick at at 11. Damont Sabonis was a a Magic selection at 11 back in 2016. And the year before that, his future teammate Miles Turner at 2015, the Pacers selected Turner at 11. Doug McDermott was the 11th overall pick in 2024. Michael Carter Williams, the eventual rookie of the year in 2013. An absolute mess of a draft in 2013. Uh Michael Carter Williams the the rookie of the year taking 11th overall. Myers Leonard the 11th overall pick in 2012. And Klay Thompson was the 11th overall pick in 2011. So if you look back at those picks, two Hall of Famers, Klay Thompson will be in the Hall of Fame. Shay Gildis Alexander is going to win MVP this year. He’ll be in the Hall of Fame. That’s how it works. I think the only MVP that’s that has is like on the cusp of not of Hall of Famer is is Derrick Rose. Um, he would not be in my Hall of Fame, but I would bet a lot of money he will be in the Naymith Hall of Fame. So, you know, over the last two out of two out of 15 ain’t bad hall of famers. That’s pretty good. Damonte Sabonis is is an all-star. He’s a very good player. Miles Turner is a darn good starter. Uh, Cam Johnson and Devin Vel are dudes who are going to be, you know, rotation level players for a long time in the league depending on where they are. start come off the bench, but like you know top top seven, top eight contributors and and often starters for a long time in the league, but obviously both started this year. Um Mazels looks like a player. I think if you’re setting expectations somewhere in the middle, right? There are there are Jed Howards, there are Usman Jensen, there are James Bnights, there are Michael Carter Williams, dudes who who are, you know, competent but not actually quality players in the end. Doug Mcderman who’s like kind of stuck around the league for a while but was never like a plus contributor. Miles Meyers Leonard who was similarly like had a fairly long NBA career was never a positive contributor. I think what you’re hoping for if the Blazers stay at 11, pick at 11 is that they get a rotation player, a dude who plays in the league and is a positive contributor for a long time. Think like the median player on this list is something like Malik Monk or Miles Turner. That would be a pretty good outcome. Those dudes help you win basketball games. It’s not the star level thing that the Blazers need, but they’re still in a phase where they just they need more more talented players on the roster. And this is a space where while you are much less likely to draft an all-star um because certainly there’s not a lot of names on here who have been all stars, three by my count. Um, uh, obviously arbitrary cut off, but like there I think positive positive rotation player is a reasonable place to say your expectations. Myers Lender is not the only player the Blazers have ever drafted at 11. Back in 1982, this is pre pre-l. They drafted Lafayette Lever from Arizona State. That’s your boy Fat Lever. Twice they have acquired the 11th pick on draft night. I’m never sure what to do with this, right? Like Jared Bis to me is the 11th pick in the draft by the Blazers. But like technically, he was drafted by the Pacers and the Blazers traded multiple players and the draft rights to Brandon Rush for Jared Balis. To me though, that’s the 11th pick. We’ll call it we’ll call it that. And if you’re going to go by that, according to my my research, shout out to Sean Resport. Gary Trent Senior uh in 1995 was was a draft night acquisition back in June of 95. uh the Blazers trade for his draft rights on on on uh way back when. So the Blazers have come, let’s say, the Blazers have left draft night with the rights to the 11th pick in the draft four occasions. Fat Lever in 82, Gary Trent Senior in 1995, Jerry D Jared Bis in 2008, and Myers Leonard in 2012. Who will be the fifth? Will the Blazers keep it? What are they going to do? Let’s talk mock drafts in the third segment. Who do the prognosticators see the Blazers taking with the 11th pick? Let’s talk early predictions. Join me in the third segment, won’t you? First though, let’s talk FanDuel. It’s the NBA playoffs and FanDuel’s making it easy to stay in the game even if your team is out of it because every night delivers action and momentum shifts and can’t miss moments. So whether you’re looking for, you know, last second shots or a big breakout performance, there’s never been a better time to get on the action with FanDuel. So before tip off or live during the game with player props, performance trends, and same game parlays, fans have more ways than ever to play smart and win big. 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If it wins, if that first $5 bet is a winner, you’ll get $200 in bonus bets. Make every moment more with FanDuel, an official sports betting partner of the NBA. Still a pass versus point guard. I’m still Mike Richmond. You, dear listener, are still listening to Locked on Blazers. The prognosticators have arrived. It is indeed mock draft season. Now we know where the Blazers are slotted to pick. I think in the future, I don’t think I know in the future later this week. Let’s talk about the Blazers potentially trading this pick. What it looks like to trade up to trade out up seems seems relatively unlikely, but to trade back in the draft order. Um, you know, to package this pick with a veteran and blah blah. We we’ll discuss sort of the the ways that the Blazers could either not make this selection or use this selection to do other things, but let’s for now the prognosticators have flown in. They’ve they’ve dropped in on their parachute and pencled who the Blazers are taking immediately following the lottery. I think these are always interesting. Um I will pay pretty close attention to ESPN’s mock. Um Mike Schmidz used to work there. He’s one of the Blazers assistant GMs. He’s he’s has a big role in their in their scouting and and drafting, etc., etc. Um, yeah, I will pay I’ll be paying close attention to it. I will say that the ESPN draft mocks have been not immediately following the lottery, but like the next round of them that they release been pretty dang predictive. Well, we’ll start with the NBA big board. Raphael Barlo, as as he said on this very show last week that he liked the fit of Derrick Queen with the Blazers because um that’s that’s big man from Maryland, Derek Queen. Raph views queen as someone who could play either four or the five. I trust Raphael. Like I think he’s really smart. That’s not really what my eyeball saw. I’m a little more skeptical of that, but um you know I I respect people that do this professionally. Like I will say that I am certainly not an expert. I’ve seen less of Queen uh than than Raph has. Queen is who uh is who Raphael at NBA big board has at ESPN. You know who they got? Derek Queen of Maryland, big man. Blazers could in, you know, they need big man depth because who the future of DeAndre is uncertain and it would be um quite frankly fairly surprising to me if he signs another contract with the Blazers. I would be I don’t stunned is not an appropriate word, but I would be pretty surprised. Um you know, I think the clock’s ticking at the moment they drafted Donovan Klingan. Rob Williams future is uncertain. DuPreath is not a high quality like NBA starter. He’s he’s he’s a depth piece. Uh even though even though I like him and like his story, like they they’re going to need front line help. I don’t hate this. I don’t love it. I like Derek Queen a lot as a basketball player. I think he’s incredibly fun, skilled, good passer. Um you know, has a face up game. I like him. I I’m a little I’m probably not as excited about the fit necessarily, but I I I think I can see the logic at least. And also like you’re at this stage, the Blazers just like talent is important. If if Derrick Queen’s best player on the board, get get that figured out later. Like, they’re not in a I don’t think many teams ever are in the draft for need, but the Blazers certainly aren’t in that mode. Over at the Ringer, they got the Blazers drafting Derek Queen from Maryland. This is a pick people like. This is a pick people like. This is a name folks like is is Derek Queen. Uh big guy from to me center, but I’m going to use big. I’m going to use because I want to I want to o be open to the possibility even if I’m a little skeptical of it that he could play four or five at Yahoo Sports. Kevin O’ Conor has the Blazers drafting Colin Murray Boils from South Carolina. Um Colin Murray Boils is a masher, right? Like he’s not maybe like a straightup post-up threat, but he kind of scored in the college level by being stronger than everyone else because he’s like 67. Um and he just mashed like he just was physical and that’s where his offense came from. If he had more on offense, I think he would be a higher level pick because I think the defense that defensive versatility and his frame and um some, you know, some sort of um other other sort of connective skills like he has he has some upside without the shooting and on offense maybe his his overall upside is capped. But um he’s an interesting piece. If he was a little bigger or a little bit more above the rimy or a little bit of more of a shooter, he just like he wouldn’t be available at 10. he would be much higher up the dra up draft boards, but he’s not. So, he’s going to be in that late lottery range. And if you get a serviceable player in the late lottery, think Miles Turner, like longtime sort of like league league average center forever. Um, you know, like and long, you know, it’s, you know, working on his 11th NBA season. Um, it’s it is uh you did very well. And at the Athletic, San Vini has the Blazers taking Kasparus Yakuchunis, the guard from big guard, 66 guard from Illinois. Uh, I like Yakuchunis. I like his game. Um, he’s like, you know, a crafty big guard who can really pass. Um, you know, Raphael Barlo on this show brought up some concerns about his overall athleticism, how that works on defense, how that works as like a getting into the paint, being a guy who creates advantages off the dribble at the next level, and being a high turnover guy. But no denying that he seems like he can play both guard spots. He can might have some shooting upside and he has some some playmaking and vision at least. Um he’s he’s an interesting piece. I wouldn’t hate that pick either. Um I don’t know that I would be super super hyped on it, but I don’t know that there’s anyone at 11 that I would sit here and bang the drum for. I think as I get deeper into this process, I’ll probably just I’ll probably, you know, form some preferences. Some of them totally out of nowhere just like kind of the, you know, with my surface level scouting. Uh, and some of them based on, you know, conversations with people I respect around the league who’ve watched a ton of college basketball and and and people like Ravio Barlo who, you know, scout for a living. Over the next coming weeks, we’ll talk all types of draft stuff. I’ll bring a bunch of draft experts, people who do this professionally onto the show. We’ll talk mock drafts, we’ll talk rumors, we’ll talk all of that. We’re a little over a month out, um, five weeksish, a little more, uh, from the NBA draft. We’re have you covered everywhere. We’ll talk about all of the permutations and my favorites and least favorites and your least favorites and favorites and all of those things from every angle. We’ll have you covered. It’s what we do five days a week wherever you get podcasts and also on YouTube. The Blazers succumbed to the odds. the math mathem. I think their best bet is to be incredibly frustrated that the Dallas Mavericks were rewarded for nonsense. The San Antonio Spurs are always rewarded and the Sixers got a little carrot for being totally discombobulated franchise. spend a few spend some time being frustrated and then come back to lockdown blazers and we’ll talk about how the Blazers move forward from here because the path involves moving forward regardless. Tell your friends about the program. I appreciate you listening. I’ll talk to you soon.

So the manifesting didn’t work. The Trail Blazers slip in the lottery and the land with the 11th pick in the NBA draft.

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Door Dash
Sign up for DashPass and when any player scores 50+ in a playoff game, DashPass members can grab a free 3PC Crispy Tenders Combo from Wingstop the next day, with a $20+ order and code WINGSTOP50. That’s DashPass: your door to more savings, more flavor, and more ways to win. Terms apply.

Valid only at participating Wingstop locations. Fees (including service fee), taxes, and gratuity still apply. Orders must have a minimum subtotal of $20, excluding taxes and fees. Offer valid on 4/15/25-6/22 /25 or while supplies last. Valid for one (1) promotional redemption per customer. DoubleDash promotions apply only to your DoubleDash add-on order, not your primary order. DoubleDash orders are not valid for the purchase of alcohol. No cash value. Non-transferable. Discount applies to subtotal only; does not apply to fees, taxes, and gratuity. Not valid for pickup. Limit one per person. Not valid for the purchase of alcohol. Fees, taxes, and gratuity still apply. Must have an active DashPass account. Use promo code WINGSTOP50 to redeem. See full terms and conditions at drd.sh/qnAXuU
Monarch Money
Take control of your finances with Monarch Money. Use code LOCKEDONNBA at monarchmoney.com for 50% off your first year.

Gametime
Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONNBA for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Download Gametime today. What time is it? Gametime.

FanDuel
Right now, new customers can get TWO HUNDRED DOLLARS in BONUS BETS when your first FIVE DOLLAR BET WINS! Download the app or head to FANDUEL.COM to get started. Bet with FanDuel—Official Partner of the NBA.

FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN)

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