Heat Culture COST Miami Cooper Flagg | Tragic NBA Draft Lottery Results

Heat Culture COST Miami Cooper Flagg | Tragic NBA Draft Lottery Results

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Code locked on NBA for 40% off and a lifetime free item. Uh, recording this on Tuesday morning. Wes Goldberg here with David Rmill. Uh after finding out the draft lottery results, the Mavericks are the story David jumping up from 11 to1 despite just 1.8% odds. Here’s the part though that stings for Heat fans. If they had not become the first 10 seed to make the playoffs out of the playin tournament, they would have had the 11 seed in the draft lottery on Monday night. So, it’s hard not to wonder what could have been. Instead, the Mavs move up. They’re going to have the rights to draft Cooper Flag, who some people are saying is the best prospect to come out of the draft in the last 10 years behind only Victor Webbyama. And that and it’s hard not to imagine that that could have been the Heat. Instead, the Mavericks get the break, they get the lucky break, and the Heat, they go to the playoffs, get wiped off the floor by the Cavaliers, and are facing a lot of questions this offseason. So my question to you, David, is should Heat fans be upset this morning? Yeah, you don’t want to tell anybody how to fan. At the same time, I get it. It’s it feels like it would have been, you know, a logical conclusion that you could make to say, “Oh, 11th seed, that would have been Miami seating. They could have gone it, but feel it for a little bit. Let it wash over you. Feel the wrath. Feel the anger.” And then let it go because who knows how it would have played out. It’s called the draft lottery. And and look, there’s enough talk already, and it’s just talk obviously, but it’s already kind of being hinted at that this was sort of rigged for Dallas’s favor after they lost their franchise player and Luca Donuch, and the whole franchise got screwed. So, the fan base was they needed something to rally behind and certainly getting the first pick in the draft is something to look forward to in terms of bringing that group back because it is a passionate fan base, no doubt. So, I don’t know that Miami certainly, who knows if Miami had had that ping-pong ball in there instead of Dallas, would it have swung in their favor? It’s impossible to say. We never have seen a jump like this before. It it just feels like it it could it’s so astronomically small odds of of this happening that it feels almost futile to me anyway to really resent it for too long. It’s kind of like, h damn, that sucks. It could have been Miami, but really there’s no way of of pinpointing the the the chances, the probabilities of this happening again and landing in Miami’s favor. Atlanta did move up from 10 to one last year. It feels like this keeps happening. And um so you’re it’s not I want to I want to explain a couple of things here. it wouldn’t have been the exact same odds because the draft lottery isn’t the same odds at every pick in the in the top 14. Uh it’s weighted based on tied records and not if two teams are tied. Dallas actually had to win a coin flip with Chicago. I feel really bad for Bulls fans. They had to win a a coin flip for Chicago for the 11th best odds. They win the coin flip. Chicago ends up getting the 12th best odds. So, this could have easily been the Bulls just as easily. So, the Mavericks not only got lucky once, they got insanely lucky twice to do this. So, they have 1.8% odds. It’s actually less when you kind of compound all the odds together and figure out, oh my god, this was insane that they ended up with the number one pick. I want to touch on the rig thing because I do think it’s at least a fun conversation to have, but um the Heat would not have had exactly the same odds. They actually would have had a 2% chance as opposed to a 1.8% chance had they missed the playoffs. Now, you could read that and say, “Oh, well then the Heat certainly would have had the number one pick. They had even better odds.” Not not so fast, right? The 1.8% 8% odds is a different set of numbers as opposed to the 2% odds. So, we don’t know exactly what numbers the Mavericks got to get the number one pick, which ones came out to get the number one pick. And for those just really quick explainer on the draft lottery, it’s not like an envelope. It’s not, hey, one ping-pong ball out of the thing. Every team has like an insane amount of set of different ping-pong balls and if your set comes up, it’s almost like Scrabble where you just have a thing in front of you and if your set comes up, then you get that pick. So Miami might have had the set that came up for Dallas to get the number one pick and this all this stuff would have been, oh yeah, Miami would have had the number one pick or they might not have had because they wouldn’t have had the exact same set of numbers. So we don’t know for sure that if had Miami lost then they would have just vaulted up to number one. So that’s part of it. Before I get to the rigging thing, Kevin Love tweeted right after, “You got to be kidding me.” or something to that effect. Uh, do you think he was talking about just the historic nature of, “Oh my god, Nico Harrison made the biggest mistake and then fell ass backwards into the number one pick to save the franchise.” Do you think that’s what Kevin Love was referring to? Or do you think Kevin Love was referring to the fact that Miami could have had the 11th odds? I think it’s the latter. I think Kevin, we know his dry sense of humor. We We’ve talked to him enough. It’s I I’m sure he like a lot of Heat fans are wondering, you know, we went to the playoffs and and it was the goal and everything else and it makes a lot of sense to aim for the playoffs, but after the historic shellacking that the team took, it’s also pretty I I think likely to feel like that was a feudal thing to attempt, you know, because they were just so under manned or not under man, they were just so down bad versus a Cleveland team that was so much better than they were that it’s hard not to say if we hadn’t made the playoffs maybe that could have been our pick or something like that but maybe a little bit of both but I think he was moving towards the latter like you know as a member of the Miami Heat organization you could always wonder oh that could have been us and that would have jump started so many conversations in Miami’s favor like I mean you imagine Miami with Cooper flag so the Heat have never had the number one pick in the draft they’re one of I think six teams to never have the number one pick. Huh. Interesting. Um, part of that is just because they’re when when the expansion year, Miami wasn’t the only expansion team. Sure. And then that’s usually when you get the number one pick, right? Um, so they weren’t the only expansion team, so they didn’t Well, do you remember if that was a coin flip situation or I I can’t remember exactly why they didn’t end up with number one. I think it was a coin flip. I think it was a coin flip thing. Yeah. And then uh so they didn’t get the number one pick then and obviously have not had the number one pick since. Right. There was the best chance was in uh 2008. Yep. And uh Chicago ends up getting number one with Derrick Rose and Miami gets number two uh and ends up with Michael Beasley. Other than that, Miami’s never really had a chance outside the expansion coin flip and then that year they haven’t really tanked to that level. But if Heat fans are going to be upset, I hear you, man. Cooper flag, Miami, that would have been something, right? Generational prospect, Eric Spolstra, this development staff. I mean, it would have been a home run, but you gota you got to play big to win big. And this Miami Heat organization is as risk averse as any organization in sports. But I’ll also say this, Dallas is playing with uh they were risk. I I think that it was it would be fair to characterize the Luca Donic trade as risky. I’m not saying that the plan was, hey, let’s Trey Luca, make sure Kyrie tears his Achilles or whatever it was, and then make and then end up in the lottery, and then also make sure Anthony Davis tears or strains his abdomen in the first half of his first game in Dallas. This was not the plan. And by the way, the basketball gods do not exist. I am I’m done. Like, they I don’t think they exist anymore. But this was also a loss. This this year, this lottery was a loss for tanking. For legit tanking, Utah didn’t get the pick. They moved down. Washington didn’t get the pick. Brooklyn didn’t get the pick. It was a loss for tanking. I know that’s the we’re going to have the rig conversation, but even before that, I wonder would drafting Cooper Flag have changed the intention of this front office? Like, would they have full done a a different reset? Right. Maybe that’s something for another episode that we can get more details. I think we can do it now. I don’t know that we’ll ever talk about Cooper flag in Miami again. I don’t think so because everybody says how NBA ready he is. Had this been a different kind of prospect? Maybe. But then even with a Raw prospect like, well, we’re not going to just trade Bam and Tyler to reset our timeline on a guy who’s kind of a question mark. Even if he’s the number one pick, we feel good about him. But with Cooper Flag, I think you would just draft him and say, “Well, we’ve got Bam, we’ve got Tyler, now we got Cooper Flag.” Would they still have gone the same route of of trying to like acquire a star? Like we talked recently about Kevin Durant, Jiannis out of Dmpo. No, I don’t think so. Flag there. Yeah. No, because Well, interesting. So, if you have the number one pick, do you shop it for Giannis? Yes. I think so. I think you have to take Cooper flag. I don’t know why he would. Rookie contract under team control. No free agency looming in two years. Unless you know Giannis is going to resign with you. I guess you could do the LeBron goes to Cleveland 2014. They trade the Wiggins pick, the number one pick for Kevin Love. Understand that Kevin Love is going to sign right away. Yeah, maybe there’s something like that. But man, like Wiggins wasn’t a Cooper flag level prospect even in the moment. That’s not even a hindsight thing. No. Um, I don’t know. I think you almost have to take group five. The interesting thing is what if Miami ended up with like a top four pick and it’s like, all right, Dylan Harper for Giannis. Now we’re talking. I feel a little bit less icky about that one. Yeah. I wonder if, you know, with Flag on the roster alongside Tyler and Pam, like what’s the path for this team to improve all those other positions in? You know, you have to you need to add depth. You need to do something differently. And I maybe that’s the route that they would have gone. That’s all I’m saying. Would it would have changed, right? Whether or not you still try to get a superstar or whether or not you would have just fleshed out the team’s depth, which is still an area of need as well. Could you have gotten Durant even without having the 20th pick in this draft instead using the number one pick on Cooper Flag? Phoenix would have said, “We want Cooper Flag.” Miami would have said, “Absolutely not.” Unless we’re talking Deon Booker and even then probably not. And then could you still have used your two future sec first round picks plus I don’t know Wiggins and Duncan Robinson and some of and then here’s Haime maybe you feel a little bit less bad about losing Khal Wear because you have Cooper flag now it’s like all right you wanted then now you can have him I don’t know you could have done all of them all of it perhaps maybe or you could have said we got Cooper flag we got bam we got Tyler Hero Pat Rally’s 80 years old but sorry dude like we’ll give you a ring when we win one in the next five years even if you’re not in the front office anymore. But uh yeah, I don’t know. It would have been really fascinating. You get Cooper Flag and then maybe you focus on lateral moves to just flesh out the depth of the roster. Yeah. And try to do a little bit of what Boston did in the early years with Tatum and Jaylen Brown where say, “Hey, we got Kyrie Irving. We got some good pieces here. We can we can still make playoff runs while developing these young players, right? Um let’s have the rig conversation.” Uh because I tweeted it. Hey, tough break last night. And a lot of responses were, “Oh, well, this is rigged and the NBA wouldn’t have rewarded Miami the same way they just rewarded Dallas.” Before I ask you whether or not you believe that to be true, and I’m not saying that the NBA is rigged, we are working in a hypothetical world in which the NBA is rigged and what that might look like, which I think is a fun hypothetical to have no matter what. But I guess the argument for it being rigged for Dallas would have been two things. Hey, that was really weird that there was no bidding war for Luca Donuch. I wonder why. Was it because NBA ratings were down and they needed Luca in LA? And did the Mavericks get a promise? Hey, you trade Luca LA, we’ll make sure you get Cooper flag. Wow. I’ve never heard that one before. Is that Is that a Wes original or is that like Have you heard I heard it I saw it somewhere. Okay. I didn’t I didn’t come up with that one. This one’s mine and it’s not nearly as creative. Uh, but uh, hey, there’s those rumors of you trying to move Dallas to Las Vegas. Don’t do that. And if you don’t do it, we’ll make sure you get the number one pick. Okay. But that would have been more after the Luca mishap. The Luca mishap is not related to the number one pick. I like the first one a lot more in terms of reasons for rigging. Yeah. Um, but but they probably would have gotten past the Minnesota Timberwolves in the first round of the playoffs, too, had that been the case. Like, if they were all in on on pushing the Lakers narrative even further than it’s already been pushed over the last 30 years, I think they probably would have gone a little bit more allin on that. At least try to kind of force them past Minnesota. Although, again, if you’re looking at Anthony, Anthony Edwards is just too just too damn good. I don’t know. He overcame he overcame the script. So that’s So all right. So I think that’s a fact. I’m not saying the NBA is rigged. If it is rigged, that would be why. Okay. All right. Right. Now, I could see the argument about why they would give the pick to Miami, too. Again, in this theoretical world of of making the pick for a franchise, because Miami has always represented the the the exact opposite of tanking. This is kind of like, all right, because you’re not you’re not you’re always pushing for the playoffs, because you always represent the the quote unquote right things. You play ethical basketball, etc. And because you are a glamour team, because basically you got screwed over by the whole Jimmy Butler situation, too. Here’s a little something, Pat. We appreciate everything you’ve done over the last 40, 50 years of of you being part of the NBA. Here’s a little going away present or something along those lines. Like there’s a lot you could say there, like a send a message. Hey, this is why you don’t tank. If you if you try hard and and and work your way through the regular season, you may still get rewarded. Yeah. Yeah. This is this is the this is the league’s and and that same thing with Atlanta, right? Like Atlanta wasn’t good last year, but they were trying. They were not tanking at all. They end up going from 10 to one. The NBA can keep pointing to a string of results saying, “Look, all you people tanking, it doesn’t work. 10 moved up to one. 11 moved up to one. It could be a a a plot, a multi-year plot to to curb tanking. Uh, I like that one. The other reason is the Jimmy Butler thing. You already mentioned it, but we saw this when um, you know, if the NBA is rigged, we’d look at a few different lotteryies. One of them would be LeBron leaving in 2010. Cleveland gets the number one pick and gets Kyrie Irving. Generational prospect at the time and ended up being that. Uh, Anthony Davis leaves New Orleans, they get the number, they fly up in the lottery, end up with Zion Williamson, generational prospect. People were talking about him as the best prospect since Anthony Davis, LeBron James at the time. Sure. Um, what was the other one? Um, those were the two those are the two that I could think of when the guy left the team that the departed team ended up getting the number one pick. Jimmy Butler isn’t quite LeBron. No. And he’s not even really Anthony Davis the way Davis was in New Orleans that year, but it’s still a market that matters to Miami. And I’ve always pushed back against the, oh, LeBron left Cleveland, so the NBA rewarded them for the number one. I don’t think the NBA cares if Cleveland’s good. The same way I don’t care if the NBA cares if New Orleans is good. The one really good New Orleans lottery rigging theory is when they ended up getting the the Anthony Davis pick because the NBA finally found somebody to buy the New Orleans Pelicans and everybody’s like, “Well, was that part of the deal? You buy the Pelicans and you get the number one pick and you get Anthony Davis coming out of Kentucky who’s this blue chip Tim Duncan type of prospect.” Yeah. Uh, that’s a good one. I like that one. I mean, this has all been going on for 40 years since Patrick Huing was drafted with the first frozen envelope. Yeah. Yeah. It’s just it’s I mean that the corner was bent. Like I mean there are so many different conspiracy theories. If is my does Miami as a market matter enough that having lost Jimmy Butler in the manner in which they lost him, would that have influenced the NBA to rig the draft lottery for the Heat and for them to get the number one pick? Yeah, I think so. I think so. I think they’re viewed as one of the top franchises in the league and and they do operate in my opinion, but I think around league circles in the right way. You know, maybe that’s a judgment call and certainly that’s subjective, but I think uh the idea that Miami, you know, competes and tries their best and and is willing to spend money and again top one of the top payrolls in the league year in and year out. They do have a great fan base. They do make a lot of money for the league in terms of ticket sales and things of that sort. I think they’re a marquee name. They’re not a Los Angeles. They’re not a Knicks team, but they’re they’re not the they’re not the Bulls even. And I mean, the Bulls sell out, but maybe they would have been see they’re probably like right there. It’s the Lakers. It’s the Celtics I think are the tops. And I would put Miami and maybe and yeah, the Knicks, I guess. And then it’s probably it’s Miami, Chicago. I I Yeah, Houston, maybe even they have a history. Maybe not Houston. No, San Antonio. They don’t really care. Um Yeah. I mean, they’ve got enough number one picks over the last couple of years. They’re above the Clippers, even though the Clippers are in Los Angeles. Yes. Yes, I’d say so. They’re above Brooklyn. Yeah. Yeah. I think they’re right there. Miami, Chicago kind of worked hard, mid to large markets, glamour markets. Yep. worked hard to have a great history. That’s what it is. Um, all right. So, the the verdict is, yeah, the Heat screwed up by making the playoffs. We could have had Cooper Fly because it would have been rigged for us either way. Um, thanks to Hungarroot for sponsoring this segment. Get 40% off your first box plus a free item in every box for life. Go to hungerroot.com/lockedonba. Use the code locked on NBA. That’s hungerroot.comonba. Thanks for making locked on Heat your first listen today. For your second listen, check out Locked on NBA Game Night every game, every night until an NBA champion is crowned. 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After the NBA Draft Lottery stunner, the Dallas Mavericks have the rights to draft Cooper Flagg with the top pick. A pick that could have belonged to the Miami Heat. Had the Heat missed the playoffs, they would have had the 11th seed in the draft lottery — the same spot from where the Mavs jumped to No. 1.

Wes Goldberg and David Ramil react to the lottery and ask if Heat fans be upset about making the playoffs and costing themselves a chance at a generational prospect.

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