Everything You Need To Know Before Thunder vs. Timberwolves

Everything You Need To Know Before Thunder vs. Timberwolves

The stage has officially been set for the Western Conference Finals. The Wolves are back for the second year in a row, while the 68 win Thunder make their first appearance since 2016. But what exactly can we expect to see in this matchup? And who ultimately has the advantage? The Wolves are pretty easily the best defensive team OKC’s had to play during this run. And on the flip side, the Thunder are pretty easily the most versatile offensive team Minnesota’s had to face. Of course, priority number one for any defense going up against OKC is finding any way possible to slow down Sheay. And I think it’s possible that Denver may have laid the blueprint. Sheay still walked out of that series averaging 30 points and seven assists a game on 63% true shooting, but as a team, they struggled to create advantages, and their offensive efficiency wasn’t quite what it was throughout the season. The Nuggets almost operated in a sort of zone for a majority of the series, aggressively playing the gaps and parking Jokic in the middle to not let Sheay touch the paint. And I don’t see what’s stopping the Wolves from doing the exact same thing. Only now it’s going to be Jada McDaniels on the ball and Gob Bear parked in the middle, which is a lot more difficult to attack. As a result, I wonder if they’ll shift to a more pick and roll heavy approach in an effort to get Rudy away from the paint. And I think that puts the Wolves in an interesting spot. Depending on who Rudy’s guarding, we’ll probably see very different coverages. If it’s Chad, they’re primarily looking to pick and pop. And that’s when I’d expect the Wolves to do exactly what they did against the Lakers with Rudy picking up the ball in a high drop while Jaden recovers, then switching late if necessary to not give up a catch and shoot three. If it’s Hartenstein, he’s primarily looking to catch the ball in the middle to either get to his signature floater or make an extra pass. And that’s when I think we’ll see Gobear back in a traditional drop, forcing Sheay to beat them as an in between scorer. The thing is, Sheay is the best in between scorer in the NBA. So, if he gets going, it’ll force tough defensive decisions. They might have to bring Goar up to the level in a hedge or a trap to get the ball out of his hands, but iHeart such a good decision maker with that fouron-ree advantage. So, something I wouldn’t be surprised to see is the Wolves actually pre-witching these actions to keep Gobear in the middle, then switching against pick and roll to make Shay play one-on-one against that aggressive help. In that same line of thinking, I also wouldn’t be surprised if Gobear matches up with one of OKC’s spot-up shooters to operate more like a free safety, especially if they’re in a lineup with just one of their bigs. it could be Lou Dort, Alex Caruso, Kase Wallace, or even Aaron Wiggins. And that’s why key number one for this Thunder offense is that the spot-up shooters are going to have to be hitting because if not, now Rudy’s in a position to prioritize the paint without having to worry about closing out, which is one of the most damaging things an offense can experience. If the shooters aren’t hitting, there are two adjustments in my opinion. One is to replace them with guys who are. If Dort’s cold, go with Joe. If Wallace is cold, go with Wiggins. But if all are cold or they need one of them on the floor, they’ll probably have to use those guys as screeners like they did against the Nuggets. That way, you can pull Go Bear away from the paint and then the Wolves will be forced to decide if they’d rather him step up to those screens or continue pre-switching so that he doesn’t have to leave the paint. Let’s assume for a second that OKC isn’t able to pull Gobear into the action. then they’d be forced to shift their approach to something a little different. In the starting lineups, I think they’ll try to get Connley into the action as much as possible, but I actually think the Wolves are more than equipped to defend this. If we go back to the Celtics and Knicks series, both Tatum and Brown were hunting for Brunson in every action, and the Knicks responded by having Brunson jump out to the ball in a hedge while the primary defender went under the screen, leaving the Jays with a brief window to step into a pull-up three. I don’t see why the Wolves can’t do the exact same thing with both Sheay and Jdub. Connley’s great at executing hedges. All four of Minnesota’s primary wing defenders are great at navigating screens. And both of those guys have really struggled to find their three-point shots throughout this run. One thing they can do to force Connley to switch is actually reverse these actions and have Sha screen, which is what the Celtics did to get Brunson. But not only do they tend to close games with Dante over Connley anyways, if absolutely necessary, you can probably switch him onto the ball without much worry, just because they’ve still got all of that help loading up behind the play and an all-time great rim protector parked in the middle. Speaking of switching, I think the Wolves will be comfortable switching any one of their other guys on every screen. Whether it’s Dante off the bench, Randall, or even Nas Reed, I think they’re comfortable living with those guys on Shay, knowing that the advantages that come with isolation aren’t as prominent if there’s always help. For that reason, like the Nugget series, if they’re going to create advantages out of isolation, it’s going to be all about how they can break the aggressive help as a team. Second side attacks are the key and really make or break the ceiling of this offense. Sheay isn’t the most advanced passer on the planet, but throughout the run, he’s shown the ability to find those soft spots and force the defense into rotation, which then relies on the other guys to extend advantages off the catch. To get out of this series, they’re going to need a lot from JDub as he really struggled to find any sort of consistent offense against Denver. And if any one of their shooters are struggling to hit, I’d expect them to lean more into Wiggins or Joe as offensive options to take some of that pressure away from Shay. Just to quickly recap, I think there are a few major points of emphasis for OKC’s offense in this series. The first couple are related to execution, and those are, of course, role players hitting open threes and supporting players beating rotations with second side attacks. Schematically, I think they’ll have to find a way to pull Gobear into as much action as they possibly can. And I’d probably try to get either Connley or Randall switched onto the ball before setting up isolations as a way to force more help. And finally, related to rotations, always play the hot hand between Dort, Caruso, and Wallace. Then, if none are hitting, turn to Joe or Wiggins for more offensive punch. With all of that said though, the Thunder can really struggle on offense and still find a way to win the series. And that’s because of their overall team defense, which gives them one of the highest floors of any team in NBA history. Real quick, I wanted to let you guys know that I’m going to be live streaming this series as well as Nick’s Pacers and eventually the NBA Finals on playback. So, if you’re interested in my live reactions or play-by-play analysis or just want to watch the games and chat with other viewers, I’ll leave a link to my playback room in the description. And without further ado, let’s get back to OKC’s defense. Their defensive personnel is vastly different from anything the Wolves saw in the first two rounds. With the way the brackets worked out for Minnesota, they haven’t faced a single big vertical rim protector. Not only does OKC have two of them, they have the second best shot blocker in the NBA. Another key difference is that both the Lakers and the Warriors had weak guards or wings to force into the action, which the Thunder don’t really struggle with. Minnesota’s primary form of offense throughout the run has been letting Ant hunt for a switch he wants, then spreading the floor for him to play one-on-one. Against the Lakers, that meant getting either Reeves or Luca on the ball, easily getting around them, and either finishing at the rim or spraying it out to spot up shooters. Against the Warriors, it was any one of healed, Pashmsky, or Kaminga. Then he do the exact same thing. Against the Thunder, there really isn’t an easy mismatch between Dort, Kuso, JDub, and Wallace. That’s four guys who can seamlessly switch onto Ant and offer at least a little bit of resistance. I think Sheay might be the guy that Ant looks for as he isn’t agile or strong enough to really keep him from creating downhill pressure. That puts the Thunder in a tough spot deciding whether they want Shay to hedge or switch. They can’t go with the strategy of going under screens to recover because he’s way too automatic on those pull-up threes. And if they end up just putting two on the ball, the Wolves love having their wings pop, then either take the open jumper or play off the catch. So, I’d expect Shay to just switch onto Ant more times than not. Then, they’ll probably load up behind the play in their shell defense like they did against the Nuggets. Their superpower as a team is defensive execution from their wings. Most notably, the positioning, speed, and hands to just wreak havoc all over the floor. And one of Minnesota’s weaknesses is that they don’t have the best group of passers from top to bottom. So against aggressive scrambling, I wouldn’t be surprised if they run into some problems creating good shots or even turning the ball over. If that’s the case, they’ll be able to load up in a way that keeps Ant from touching the paint, reducing the threat of his slashing and forcing the other guys to make tough decisions against a rotating defense. So instead of hunting for a wing to play one-on-one, I expect this series from the Wolves to be a lot more about attacking OKC’s bigs. Neither chat or Hartinstein are going to switch. And that right there might be how you get your advantages. If he’s seeing drop coverage, screen navigation has to be flawless or he’s walking into pull-up threes. I think they’ll probably start and close games with Chad on McDaniels. And Minnesota’s shown to be willing to use Jaden as a screener quite a bit in the past as he’s a pretty decent scoring weapon out of the short role. But if it’s Go Bear screening, I fully expect the Thunder to trap, forcing him to catch it in the short roll. Not only does he sometimes struggle in those spots, they’ve got the secondary rim protection to step over and defend the paint with all of the wings flying around to take away shooters. For that reason, this could be much more of a Nas Reed series. Reed’s ability to pop and either hit the three or handle the ball makes it a lot tougher to either drop or put two on the ball against Ant, which would then allow them to create those advantages. But if Gobear’s in the game, or they’re struggling to punish OKC off of screens, I think one solution could be to run more halfcourt offense through Randall. I don’t really know what to expect regarding a defensive game plan against Julius. He’s caused a ton of problems for both of their opponents and not just against mismatches. He’s creating so much downhill pressure, then scoring efficiently while also finding shooters consistently. He’s going to be really tough for any defense. And I think we can expect another big series from him. Because of OKC’s wing depth, I think they can get away with switching everything. But the problem is what you do when he actually gets into his attack. late help doesn’t seem like an option as that’s when he starts to find corner shooters time and time again for wideopen threes. They could try leaving him in single coverage and trusting those defenders to slow him down one-on-one, but even Draymond couldn’t do much. If he’s scoring too efficiently, they could load up aggressively like I expect them to do against Ant. again getting into rotation, but the risk there is that Ant could start to catch the ball with an advantage, which is basically a death sentence. It’s tough to see a solution for the Julius Randall problem, and I think a pathway to a Wolves victory could be to push that button as much as possible. It’s also worth noting that Minnesota’s size and athleticism, not only between Ant and Randall, but across the board, also gives them a slight personnel advantage regarding OKC’s rotation. I mentioned how they might want to get Isaiah Joe on the floor for more offense. I don’t know if he can stay on the floor against the Wolves for that reason. And the same goes for Jay Will, who Ant would put into every action to create automatic advantages. The biggest thing I’ll be looking for though is whether or not the Wolves can speed up their offense a bit. OKC set defense is nearly impossible to beat on a possessionby- possession basis, so they might have to play an early offense. Then the question becomes whether or not they’re actually capable. In the regular season, they ranked 27th in the league in transition frequency, accounting for roughly 13% of their plays. In the playoffs, they’ve ramped that up to over 14%, good for seventh. And they’ve generated an incredibly efficient 1.4 points per possession, which is second behind only the Thunder. So, in terms of total points of emphasis, I’d say a couple of them are similar to what OKC needs to do. Role players have to be hitting threes, which I’m not as worried about just because I think they have a better overall shooting roster, and the supporting guys are going to have to make timely decisions and attacks against rotations as the only way to break the shell is to collapse the pain. I think they’ll have to force Bigs into the action as much as possible, whether that’s by using Jaden as a screener or by getting Nas Reed in the game and running a lot more offense through him. I think they’ll have to utilize Randall in the half court as much as possible as it seems like he’s the one who causes the Thunder to make the toughest choices. And finally, I want to see them play with more pace. If they execute across the board, they might just be able to beat this juggernaut of an OKC defense. With all of that in mind, where does that leave us in terms of predicting who’s going to win the series? One other factor to consider is that there’s only a 48 hour turnaround from game seven, which means that the Wolves are walking into this matchup with more rest. As far as the offense and defense goes, I see things to exploit and ways to exploit them on both sides, and I come away feeling like this should be an extremely competitive series. All things considered, I’m expecting six or seven games. And if I were forced to make a pick, my money would be on the Thunder escaping a tough sixgame series. I just trust their defensive execution more. And I think Shay should comfortably perform like the best player. And for those reasons, I think they’ll be able to reach the NBA Finals for the first time in 13 years. If you enjoyed this breakdown, make sure to drop a like, subscribe, and turn my post notifications on to be first on more content. If you’re interested in my more in-depth research, make sure to check out the Hoop Venue podcast and my social media profiles. You can find those links in the description. Feel free to let me know down in the comments what you think’s going to happen in this series. As always, I hope you all have a great day, and I’ll catch you guys in the next one.

The Thunder and the Timberwolves are matching up in the Conference Finals, but what can we expect to see? And who has the advantage?

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