Timberwolves vs Thunder Western Conference Finals Game 1 Predictions | 2025 NBA Playoffs Best Bets

Timberwolves vs Thunder Western Conference Finals Game 1 Predictions | 2025 NBA Playoffs Best Bets

Western Conference Finals begin Tuesday night, game one, Timberwolves Thunder. I’m going to talk about the side total, player props, free advice, free winners coming up for you right here, right now in the NBA Western Conference Finals. Hi, this is Steve Merrell, wager talk.com, right back here on Wager Talk TV. And let’s get right into and don’t forget, I’ve been doing every NBA playoff game every day and I will continue to do so for both the East and West Finals. Game one Minnesota, Oklahoma City for Tuesday night. And then I’ll be back tomorrow with your game one Pacers Knicks video for Wednesday. And by the way, all these Western Conference games are on ESPN at 8:30 Eastern, including this game one Tuesday night. And we’ve seen a little bit of the line movement here. It opened 7 OKC. Now they’re 7 and a2 across the board. And we’ve definitely seen some early money come in on the over. Opened as low as 213, been bet up to 215. Even a couple 216s floating some 215s in other spots. We’ll say 215 and a half. makes sense that we saw some early money on the overunder in this game because the regular season matchups were very high scoring and the totals were much higher than this and three of those four still went over. In fact, uh the first time they played on December 31st, New Year’s Eve last year, it was 217, landed 218. But then they played three times in a very short span in February. In fact, they played three times over an 11day span in February. The totals were 227 and a half or higher all three times. And two of two of those three games got up and over. We had 217, 253, and then 242 in regulation which ended up at 259 after overtime. Uh so three of the four did get up and over and all totals were higher than this in the regular season. So I understand why the early money came in on the over. But as I’ve talked about a lot, playoff basketball is a different beast. We see a lot more physicality. We see a lot more defensive intensity and NBA playoff games on average are much lower scored. And we’ve seen that so far this year as well. And something else I’ll point out about uh the defensive matchup here is these are the two most efficient defenses in the NBA playoffs so far this year. If you look at the overall playoff ratings, playoff games only, Oklahoma City and Minnesota number one and two right now in playoff defic uh efficiency defensive numbers. And you would say, well, that’s because they’re winning. And yes, that is part of the reason. Obviously, um it’s a self-fulfilling prophecy. If you’re advancing, you’re probably playing better defense than your opponent. But let’s just take a jump look. And once again, I’ll dive in deeper to the Pacers Knicks game tomorrow for you. That’s a Wednesday night game, but the Knicks rank only fifth in defensive efficiency. The Pacers only eighth. So once again, winning doesn’t necessarily mean you have good defensive numbers. Pacers and Knicks are only fifth and eighth in the playoffs. OKC and Minnesota, the two best defensive teams this postseason. And offensively, they’re only fourth and fifth. Once again, only fourth and fifth offensively. So that’s one of the reasons we see a much lower total. And then of course in the regular season, Oklahoma City was by far the best defensive team in the league. Minnesota might only be the sixth seed in the West, but they have the sixth best defensive efficiency in the entire NBA this year, and they actually the fourth best in the West. So, Minnesota’s better than their overall seasonal numbers indicated. I talk about net rating a lot. It’s a good overall metric. OKC obviously the best net rating this year. They were several points ahead of even Boston and Cleveland. But guess who was fourth? Minnesota. Minnesota the fourth best net rating in the entire NBA, second in the West. So, these really were the two best teams in the Western Conference this year. So, even though Minnesota finished as a six seed, very misleading. They have playoff experience. They made a deep run last year, just missed out on making the finals, and I think they have a very good chance to make the finals this year. And I do feel like they’re a live dog in this series for that reason. In fact, if you’re looking at the future prices right now, OKC is minus money, not only to win the West, but to win the whole thing. They’re minus 175 to win the championship. Minnesota 5 to1, Knicks 5 to1, Pacers 7 to1. So, if you think somebody other than OKC is going to get it done, you’re getting some nice value. And I think Minnesota has a good shot to pull the upset in this series. In fact, they’re plus 275 to win just this series. Plus 550 as I mentioned to win the NBA championship. So, might want to put a little bit of a flyer on the Timberwolves at plus money in the West here or even a long shot at 5 a half to one. A little small wager, you know, maybe half a percent, 1%, some fun money. Uh because I do think this series is going to go deep. And if I lean towards Minnesota as a possible upset in the series, I’m going to lean towards them in game one, uh, it’s not a necessity that they win game one, but I think getting seven and a half points, there is some value with them. So once again, I think the T-Welves are a live dog in this series, including game one on Tuesday night. And let’s look at the matchup here. I talked about those four regular season games, and Minnesota actually split two of the four with them, and they went three and one against the spread. In fact, if you go back to last season, they’ve matched up pretty good against the Thunder. In fact, in the previous 10 meetings going all the way back to 2 and a half years ago, uh Minnesota’s won seven of the last 10 straight up, they won two won two out of the four straight up this year, which is pretty impressive considering OKC won 68 games. They only lost 14 games all regular season. Two of those 14 losses, 17th of those losses was to Minnesota. And the T-Boss played three of those four games without Julius Randall. They played three of those four games without Rudy Goar. Now, yes, I think they’re two of the more overrated, as you know, superstars in the NBA, but it’s still two of their starters. So, they played three of the four games this year without Goar and Randall. And ironically enough, the one game they played with both of them, they actually uh won lost that game 113 105. That was the third meeting I believe they played back No, I’m sorry. That was the first meeting they played. My mistake. first meeting they played back on December 31st was the only time go and Randall played because they played those other three games in early February or midFebruary over 11 days span and both were injured. So can’t read too much into the regular season matchups but Minnesota still won two out of the three without Randall and Gobear and I think they are a stronger lineup with them there and that’s another reason keep in mind also defensively they’re much better with Gobear. Uh those regular season games when he played it was only 218. The three he didn’t play were much higher scoring. So, that’s another reason why the overunder underline’s a lot lower than it was in the regular season. Um, let’s dig into some of those games. We will look at the December 31st game because that is the one matchup and with both teams at everybody. OKC, by the way, was healthy for all the games as they were pretty much throughout the regular season. Another reason why they had the most wins. But if you look at Minnesota overall this year, um, as I said earlier, they underperformed their six seed in that first game back in December, Jada McDaniels had a huge game, 27 points, played over 42 minutes. Uh McDaniels is a guy we mentioned quite often the past few rounds for player props. He only had seven points in one of the rematches and then 17 and then the final meeting they played um he had 21. So he might get a little bit less shots with Randall and Goar. But when they were all in the lineup back in December, he still had a monster game. Took 16 shot attempts, had 27 points. Anthony Edwards, by the way, when they all played back in December, only five for 15, only 17 points. So we’ll see if OKC is able to shut Edwards down. He only had 20 points in the second meeting. Uh 29 points and then finished the last one with 23. So he was held in check. I would be careful with Anthony Edwards price. Although I do like Minnesota in this series. Um and Edwards is obviously going to have to have a good game probably if they win. Um he’s priced to perfection. I don’t ever fade superstars, but I would stay away from Edwards and maybe look for some secondary guys. Um and McDaniels is definitely someone that jumps off the list for me as a possible over prop play in game number one. Um, as far as OKC, let’s look at some guys here. Obviously, SGA is a monster player. Uh, he had 40 points in the second to last meeting when these teams played back or actually, I’m sorry, the first meeting on December 31st, he had a huge game in that one with 40 points. Um, the other meetings that they played back in February, the most recent one on the 24th, he had 39 points, 11 for 20 shooting. Uh Minnesota was not able to stop SGA. But keep in mind those last three meetings, Goar was not in the lineup to take away some of the penetration down low and Randall’s a big man as well. And keep in mind when Denver went to the zone in some of those games recently, SGA did struggle to take it to the hoop. You know, SGA is a guy that gets points by taking to the hoop, getting to the free throw line. Could Minnesota maybe limit that a bit? So, another superstar you might want to just put on neutral here and look for some of the secondary players. Uh Jaylen Williams finally did something. We talked about how after three straight games, games four, five, and six, we thought he would finally bounce back and he had 24 points against the Nuggets in game seven. Will be interesting to see what he does in this series. He obviously for the most part vastly underachieved in that Denver series. Uh when these teams played back on December 31st, Williams had only 14 points and he was six for 12 shooting and still finished with only 14. and he did have 27 on 23 shots in another meeting, 18 points on 14 shots, and 20 points on 17 shots. So, I do like Jaylen Williams possibly over at some point. Maybe not game one, but we’ll keep an eye on him. I think he’ll have a pretty good series, and we probably get some value now with his over since he did not do a lot against Denver. All right, there’s a quick look at game one. We’re going to dig into game one, obviously, more after we see the results here, which players do well and don’t. I take more of a zigzag approach with player props and like to do that after game one. But those are some guys to take an initial look at. I do think the T- wells are a live dog in this series. So you might want to put a little bit of a flyer at plus 275 in the West or even plus 550 to win the whole thing as it’s wide open. Obviously they get to the finals. I think they’ll probably be favored over either the Pacers or Knicks. Um so this is really the series. So the fact that their odds are doubled to win the whole thing doesn’t make a lot of sense. I would actually probably make them the favorite in the in the NBA finals. Whoever wins this series is likely going to be the final uh the finals favorite over either the Pacers or Knicks. Hey, by the way, comment below. What are your thoughts? Side total player props here in game one. What are your overall thoughts on the Western Conference Finals? And do you agree that the T- Wolves could be a bit of a live dog in this series? You know, the Thunder, they struggled at times against Denver. Denver was in that series and that’s a bit of a red flag because that Nuggets team is not as strong as they were two years ago. I think the T-Wolves are probably a better overall opponent. We’ll have your game one video for the Knicks and Pacers. Don’t forget tomorrow for Wednesday here on Wager Talk TV. Click subscribe and click the bell for instant alerts. We might get it up early the day before just like we did with this video. 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🏀 Join NBA betting expert Steve Merril as he breaks down Today’s Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder Game 1 clash as he breaks down how to wager this Western Conference Finals matchup. What is his free NBA Playoffs prediction? Get his betting insights now!

#nbapicks #nbapredictions #nbaplayoffs

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder – Game 1 Preview | May 18, 2025​

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder | Game 1 | May 20, 2025

The 2025 NBA Playoffs continue with a Western Conference showdown as the Minnesota Timberwolves (#RaisedByWolves) take on the Oklahoma City Thunder (#ThunderUp) in Game 1 of this thrilling series. The action tips off on Tuesday, May 20, 2025, at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.

📍 Location:
Paycom Center — Oklahoma City, OK

🕖 Game Time:
8:30 PM ET / 7:30 PM CT

📺 How to Watch on TV:
TNT (National broadcast)

📻 How to Listen on the Radio:
Timberwolves: WCCO 830 AM
Thunder: WWLS 98.1 FM The Sports Animal

💻 How to Watch Online:
TNTDrama.com or TNT App (with cable login)
NBA League Pass (restrictions may apply)
Live streaming services: Hulu + Live TV, Sling TV, YouTube TV (subscription required)

📊 Betting Info (via DraftKings as of May 19, 2025):
Spread: Thunder -2.5
Total (Over/Under): 215.5

📌 Interesting Facts:
The Timberwolves, led by All-Stars Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns, are coming off one of their most successful regular seasons in franchise history.

The Thunder, paced by young star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, earned the #1 seed in the West and have home-court advantage throughout the conference playoffs.

This is the Timberwolves’ first appearance in the Western Conference Finals since 2004.

Oklahoma City last reached the conference finals in 2016, when Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook led the team.

📱 Team Hashtags:
Minnesota Timberwolves: #RaisedByWolves
Oklahoma City Thunder: #ThunderUp

Don’t miss a moment of this high-stakes Game 1 battle in the Western Conference Finals!

#NBAPlayoffs #Timberwolves #Thunder #NBA #MinnesotaTimberwolves #OklahomaCityThunder #Game1 #WesternConferenceFinals #NBATV #Basketball #LiveStream #HowToWatch #Spread #OverUnder

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