The Sacramento Kings Interesting Offseason Situation
We are joined by the one, the only Keith Smith of Spa Track. And Keith, friend of the station, I don’t know that actually I’m pretty sure you haven’t been on this show yet. You’re normally making it around. So we appreciate you hanging out with the Midday Show. We’re the most fun show, Keith. So I’m glad you finally made it with us. Awesome. Yeah, I’m happy to be here. Thanks for having me. Let’s start here, Keith. Obviously, we’re going to get into the the nitty-gritty of the Kings, but just in general, we were having a conversation about uh Jonathan Kaminga. We’re going to talk about him a good bit uh here in this segment, but I was going back and forth with a texter about whether or not the Kings could sign somebody like Jonathan Kaminga uh just outright because of the the increase in the salary cap. And Kyle and I were discussing how the Kings, just like almost every other team, is operating as a as a a team that is already over the cap. How does that increase in 2025, 2026? How is that going to affect uh certain teams and and just the landscape of the NBA? Yeah, it’s it’s not going to be like previous times when we’ve seen the cap go way way up because what the NBA did this time around was they um in negotiations in the last CBA, they they not to use the same term, but they capped cap growth. Um meaning it can only go up by 10% um at the max each season. So, it’s going to go up. It’s going to go up by a decent chunk, but what’s going to happen is that’s not enough to like cause all these teams like if we remember back in 2016, everybody had cap space and uh some some truly horrifying deals were given out uh in retrospect. So, what we’ll see here is some teams are going to get a little more wiggle room with the TS and the aprons. That’ll be helpful for them, but a lot of teams are still going to be over the cap. Uh the the Brooklyn Nets are positioned to have the most cap space race in the league, but it’s not going to be like the spending spree like we’ve seen in the past. Talking to Keith Smith of Spa Track. With that being said, Keith, and I know you said that a lot of these deals aren’t going to, you know, situations aren’t going to change uh a ton, but do you think some of the contracts, we’ve talked about this with Zack Lavine and, you know, the John Collins of the world, some of these guys, Zack Lavine looking like a larger overpay than say a John Collins. With that being said, do you think some of these deals that are floating around right now could look a little bit better than they currently look once everybody else starts getting paid more money as well? Yeah, without a doubt. That’s generally, you know, the nature of things unless it turns into a Bradley Beal type situation where the guy’s just no longer, you know, what he was as a player and there’s injuries and the no trade clause, which that’s, you know, what really makes that one so, you know, rough to work around, unless you fall into a situation like that, um, contracts do start to look less worse, I guess, is the best way to put it, right, as you go along. So yeah, and I think the Kings are in a position with Zack Colleen. You know, I said it at the time he was traded. Um, and going into that trade, his deal wasn’t underwater. It wasn’t one more, you’re jumping up and down and talking about what a great job you did getting a team friendly contract, but but it was Home where it’s just all right, it’s kind of neutral. I think that’s the price they paid to acquire him. Um, even though that got, you know, wrapped into, you know, a multi-team trade that ultimately in the end looked like, all right, you know, we did all right here, you know, with this one. So, I I think you know that that’s that’s where that’ll go. And then, yeah, as the cap continues to go up and we’re probably going to have this year, probably next year, maybe the year after as um three consecutive years of 10% growth and then things will level back out a little bit more. And that the reason why we’re going to have those three years of 10% growth is going to be because of the new television contract which delivered, you know, $7 billion into the NBA. So, so now we’re in a position where all right, everybody’s going to kind of work around, you know, that and not work around it, but everybody’s going to work within that as the cap grows. And, and one last thing I’ll say, people get a little caught on like, oh, it’s only, you know, 10%, you know, is that is that going to be a big amount? We’re talking 10% of 140 million this year. So, we’re looking at about, you know, a 145 million uh growth ultimately in the end. Talking to Keith Smith of Spa Track. Keith, let’s stick with Zack Lavine for a second. It’s been reported that the Kings might look to extend his deal and kind of spread out that money a little bit as he’s got that player option at the end of next season for about 47 million. We’re we’re seeing and and I I’m not sure how this landed. I haven’t seen the reports yet, but same idea with Fred Vanble, the Rocket saying, “Hey buddy, maybe we gave you a little too much money.” Uh talk about why a I I guess from Zack Lavine’s perspective, he’s talked about moving a lot. A lot of these players are open about not like they do not enjoy moving during the season, but talk about why a Zack Lavine or Fred Van Vleet would say, “Okay, fine. I’ll take more years, but a lower AAV.” Sure. Yeah. And the situations are a little bit different because in Fred Vanble Vleet, that’s a team option. So the Rockets really have control there where the Rockets can kind of say, “Hey, you know what? we’re not giving you $44 million next year. It’s not not happening. And they could just cut it loose and then they could say, “Hey, do you want to then resign here and we’ll do something for 25 million a year, 30 million a year and we we’ll we’ll kind of spread that out.” Um, that could be the way that goes down. You could also see Fred and Lee say, “No, you cut me loose number and I’m off to, you know, wherever I go.” The problem this specific summer is again only the Nets are have meaningful cap space available and not sure they’re locking into a over 30 point guard where they’re at in their rebuild period here with Zack Lavine. He’s got significantly more control. Couple of things. One, it’s a player option for him in 26 27. So he’s under contract for next year 47 and a half. Then he’s got one more year after that that that he’s locked into if he picks up that option. And then the other piece is in the summer of 2026, conservatively right now, we’re projecting there’ll be maybe five, six teams with meaningful cap space. So, you could get into that, but Zach means like, you know, I’m about as close to home as I can get in Washington um in Sacramento and I want to be here and I don’t want to move around and move my family and do all the things that come with that again. I just want to stick here. One of the things him and the Kings could work out is, all right, $49 million really not where we want to be, you know, for you. But what you end up doing there is, all right, let’s knock that number down a little bit. Let’s knock it down to, you know, $40 million. And then that then what we do is we add more guaranteed money on for the next two, three seasons. And that’s how you kind of lengthen things out. You you’re not going to knock it down from 49 to like 10. um you know people who think that’s going to happen that’s you’re you’re in dream world there but you knock it down a little bit that makes the deal more palatable maybe frees up some more um you know flexibility for the kings under the cap and you know or under the tax lines aprons and you just move forward that way Keith a lot had been said about Damonte Sabonis and his value you look at some of the you know Ivakazubots now has jumped uh jumped Damonte Sabonis and people are saying Shenon has jumped Sabonis he’s making a a lot of money. What do you think about Damonte Sabonis’ value right now in the NBA? Yeah, I think it’s it gets overblown that he’s, you know, overpaid and overrated and all these things. He’s one of the best rebounders in the league. He is one of the best facilitating bigs outside of Nicola Joic that you can have. You can run your entire offense through Sabonis and you’d be just fine. Then offensively, we know he’s really good and I love that he got back to shooting more three-pointers last year. I think that’s been something we’ve been looking for. Defensively, yeah, it’s always going to be a problem and you’re going to have to get the right kind of defenders around him on the floor, but we’ve seen teams do that in the past. The New York Knicks, for example, are in the Eastern Conference Finals with Carl Anthony Towns as their center, and no one is ever thought of Carl Anthony Towns as a good defensive center. So, so you just got to get the right defenders around him that can kind of protect him a little bit, make things harder on the perimeter guys and you’ll be able to get going forward. And then as far as his contract goes, I think he’s paid, you know, very fairly for what he is. He’s he’s not on a max deal. He’s below a max deal. He’s going to be somebody who’s going to come in all right. He comes in at, you know, a big number, but it’s not going to be a number where I think you’re you’re blown away like, “Oh my gosh, this guy makes so much money and it’s impossible to move him.” It’s just getting the right players around him to maximize him and your team that that’s what the King’s challenge is. Talking to Keith Smith of Spa Track and Keith, we have a segment on this show we call it found money and we’ve been saying for the last couple seasons, Keon Ellis has been that found money on the Kings. A lot of conversations have been had about, okay, well, if they decline his option, the Kings do, that’s a better chance of them actually keeping him because they can offer him more money. C can you break down the Keon Ellis situation real quick? Yeah. So, what happens with Keon Ellis? The Kings have a team option for him next year for $23 million. In theory, you’re like, man, that sounds awesome. This guy is worth way more than $2.3 million. But if the games just pick that up, then they’re kind of locked into one of two options. Either you play it out and he becomes an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2026. And that’s not great because then you have no real leg up to keep him beyond bird rights, but he’s not going to get paid so much um that that the bird rights are going to be the differentiator there. So you So you can either pick up the team option, have them for 2.3 million, then work an extension form off of that where you could give him 10, 11, 12 million a year. Even it could go as high as 20. That’s probably a little bit too much, but you could do that. Your other option is you decline the team option. You make him a restricted free agent this summer. Again, we said it’s only the Nets, so it’s cap space. I’m not sure that’s the direction they’re going to be looking to go. Um, so everybody else who could give him an offer is the contract the Kings I think would gladly match and move on. So now the Kings have him under control as far as being restricted free agent, work out a deal with him right now. The the first pass is that latter pass is the more likely one where they decline it, work out a new deal and restricted free agency simply because that removes the risk from uh both team and player something gets done right away. Um, but we could see this be one. Boston Celtics did this with Sam Hower. They had him under contract and worked out a new long-term extension with him that locked in after he finished out the, you know, very team friendly deal that he was on. Keith Smith, just a couple more for you. Another one that has caused a lot of, I guess, confusion, if you will. Jake Lorravia. Now, obviously Jake Laravia came over from the Grizzlies. the the Kings kind of inherited that situation so they can off only offer him a certain amount of money. What would be your guess as to whether or not Jake Laravia gets priced out of what the Sacramento Kings are able to to offer him? Yeah, I think this is again one where things are kind of working a little bit in the King’s favor here, but maybe not quite as well as they are with Keon Ellis. And the reason I say that is what happened with with Jakeia is the things are limited. they can because the Grizzlies declined their rookie scale team option on him. That that means that they then by by virtue of trading him to the Kings. Now the Kings are limited to paying him a starting salary of about 5.2 million next year. You can’t exceed the amount of the declined option. So what happens with Jake Labraia is he gets paid um you know a starting salary of 5.2 million. They could give him you know a full contract that works out to about 30 million over 5 years. If I’m Jacob Raby and his agent, I’m like, nah, that’s not enough for for me in terms of annual value, but he might be able to get a two-year deal worth, you know, 10 10 a.5 million where then maybe that second season is an option. Then he can opt out of that. The Kings then can then that restriction of how much you can pay him in first year salary’s removed and they can work out a new deal from there. I think that could be the path forward for Jake Larabia. Last but not least, K Ke Keith, before we had you on, we were talking about Jonathan Kaminga and maybe a sign and trade situation uh with him. What do you think his value looks like on the open market? I saw reports that it never officially came out that but his camp may have wanted 30 million and that’s why him and the Warriors couldn’t come to an agreement because the Warriors just say we’re not paying you that. We’ll see what happens in restricted free agency. How do you think it ends for John the Kaminga as far as his uh next destination? Yeah, I do think he’s going to move via sign and trade from the Warriors. the Warriors, not not as limited as the uh Warriors of old when they’re extremely over over the cap and the tax and the apron, but they’re limited in the things that they can do next summer because you have Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Jimmy Butler on the books all, you know, making well, you know, over 130 million combined just for those three guys. So, in order to build out depth around those guys, which we can see you need as they’re older players, I think what they’re going to do is is try to work a signing trade for Jonathan Kaminga where it’s him and then maybe they add another player or two in there. We’ll see. But that brings it back two, three guys who can fill in rotation roles uh for them going forward and that’s how they try to build it out. As far as annual value goes, here’s a little bit of a challenge. Again, is Kaminga. He’s going to be in a spot where it’s going to be all right. How do we get there with it being um you know all these being so few teams with cap space? Where are we going to get to with a big offer? So I think find a place where he wants to be team that wants to pay him. I don’t know he’s getting 30 million a year. It might be more in the high-end range of 20 or so. Um but but then that team can feel pretty good about that. I think he his problem was Fron Vagner who was picked right around the same area as him in the draft who he had done well against in a couple matchups did get that max contract and I think for Kaminga that kind of put him in a spot where hey I need the max too and he was never going to approach that from the Warriors room he just hadn’t done enough uh to earn that now we’re in a spot where he’s got going to have to find it another way Keith that was outstanding now I know why they always have you on the other shows you got to come on this one more often that was great Keith Keith Smith of Spa Track. Keith, enjoy the rest of your Tuesday. We will talk to you again soon. Appreciate it. I appreciate it. Thanks so much for having me. Keith Smith, I mean, just with a heater. That dude was on fire. We react to everything we say. I’m feeling good about Keon Ellis. I’m feeling good about Jake Laravia. Let’s break it all down when we return. Alan Styles Sack on Sports. Sacramento weather is brought to you by San Francisco 49ers.
Spotrac NBA cap expert Keith Smith joined The Allen Stiles Show to discuss the potential of the Kings signing Johnathan Kuminga, Zach LaVine’s next contract, and what Sacramento could do with Jake LaRavia.
Thank you for watching. Don’t forget to hit the thumbs up and subscribe!
#nba #sacramentokings
Subscribe at: https://www.youtube.com/c/Sports1140KHTK/?sub_confirmation=1
Find Sactown Sports 1140 online: https://t.co/K0vdSg5o1w
Listen live to Sactown Sports 1140: https://player.listenlive.co/55401
Like Sactown Sports 1140 on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/SactownSports
Like Sactown Sports 1140 on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/sactown1140
Follow Sactown Sports 1140 on Twitter: https://twitter.com/sactown1140
App download Android: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.bonneville.khtk&hl=en_US&gl=US
App download iPhone: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/sports-1140-khtk/id1314735220
1 Comment
“You can run your entire offense through Sabonis and be just fine” 😅😅😅😅😅😅