Can Anyone Beat The Oklahoma City Thunder? With Zach Lowe | The Bill Simmons Podcast

Can Anyone Beat The Oklahoma City Thunder? With Zach Lowe | The Bill Simmons Podcast

I was kind of deep down hoping we were going to get a really fun Timberwolves OKC game one and then for about a quarter and a half it felt like we were heading that way and then OKC does the thing that they do from time to time where their defense just shifts. It shape shifters. They just turn it up a different way and then all of a sudden the game’s over and you’re like what happened? How is this an 18-point game? It was just they were just up by two a second ago and that was it. So, I don’t know. You take anything away from this or is it just typical game one? Well, first of all, the Wolves were ahead by four points halfway through the third quarter. Mike Connley had a little had a little flurry. Little flurry. Mike Connley hit a three. It was 60 to 56 with 722 left. But look, I said this before the series. I picked Thunder in six. Don’t feel any better. I guess I have to feel slightly better about that pick. But the bottom line is this. The most consistent unit, let’s call it, left in the playoffs is Oklahoma City’s defense. Every single night, they’re going to be an absolute bear to score on them. No one has really found an answer at any point of the season. Denver did pretty well against them in the regular season. Spoiler alert, that did not last into the playoffs, even with the best player in the world. Yeah. Trying every trick he has. And they just reach a frenzy. And you know, like Julius Randall posting up, it’s just like, watch out. Like, where’s it? Where’s the help? Is there any help coming from? Is Lud Dor going to pull the chair? Where are the arm? There are just arms everywhere. And you know, look, uh, 17 turnovers doesn’t sound that bad for Minnesota. I mean, it’s not great, but it doesn’t sound that bad. 13 of those were steals, and that plus a free throw margin that is even andor slightly an edge to Oklahoma City is just the Wolves are dead on arrival against this defense. if those stats trend that way. Yeah, it felt like this was the game about 30 40 minutes in. It’s like, “All right, they’re going to get this one if they’re going to get a game, right? Everything’s going well. Rando’s playing out of his ass.” And uh OKC looked nervous and OKC looked a little tired from maybe that seven gamer. And it was interesting when Ken Rich Williams came in. Love it. Kenny Hustle, baby. Unbelievable. Like, would he have been the fifth best Nugget? Where do you have him ranked on Nuggets? Could he have played 35 minutes a game for the Nuggets? He’s He was plus 19 in nine minutes. Made every shot that he took. Unbelievable. So, when he did that, I’m like, is this a tactical move or did he extend the bench today because he was worried his team was a little worn out or what’s going on? And did he lose faith in Caruso all of a sudden? And then Caruso came in and played played one of the great stretches he’s had in the playoffs. So, that was that answered that question. Yeah, Caruso was making threes, guarding Randall as I think one I think everyone was reminded that oh yeah, he’s going to guard Randall when he guarded Joic at the end of the series. And Ken Rich Williams, he’s like a beloved guy there. You know, for years they’ve been saying he’s going to be Nick Collison 2.0 for us. He’s just going to be a lifer here. We love him. He’s about all the right things. Hadn’t really done much in the playoffs in the real playoffs. I’m not going to count the Memphis series. Um it’s a cool moment. He may not do much from here on out, but that’s a big That was a big stretch of basketball for him. It was a cool moment. Was he had a big three, too. So, the things I was worried about heading into this game, what are we getting from Mike Connley, who’s old going against this gauntlet? You called on Sunday’s pod or Monday’s pod. You said you thought OKC’s defense is now going way up there. I want to see it for four rounds because I I I I’m still licking my wounds from jumping the gun with Minnesota last year when they look good in round two and all of a sudden I was comparing them to the 89 Pistons. So, I’m just I have the training wheels on for all defense takes in these playoffs. But I, you know, the bones are there. I think what makes them special is is the different looks and how they can do the big and small. How they can put like a we’re just going to try to get a lot of steals line up. They they have looks like a football team that I don’t really remember seeing. I guess the the you know, you go back to the 89 Pistons and teams of that ilk that could kind of change their look depending on what you had. They’re on pace, but what they did today is they do it over and over again. They just go in these runs and they’re defense fueled, which is so unusual in the in the league, right? The the runs that we usually have in the league are threes and or somebody getting hot. This team can have runs based on steals and pressure and picking up guys at half court. That one sequence, I know you know what I’m about to say when Edwards was bringing the ball up and Caruso kind of jumped on him and then he almost lo he almost fell over for a backcourt just because of the pressure and then got it back and then just like launched a terrible three. Nobody else is doing that in the league and I think that’s what makes them special is they just throw things defensively that you’re like I’ve not seen that anywhere. Yeah, they have they have a couple every game where it’s just, oh, the the guy just either fell over along the sideline under pressure bringing the ball up or dribble the ball off his foot or I don’t quite know what happened. I have to watch the replay to see what went haywire here. Um, but you mentioned different looks and, you know, I was talking about this before the series. We saw I I said it’s going to be a safer series to play Chet as the only big guy on the floor. They were afraid to do it against Denver very much and they did it a lot today. Hartinstein only played 20 minutes and Chad was awesome. I mean, it doesn’t jump off the stat sheet, you know, 1573. I just thought he made the kind of plays he needs to make on offense for them to win the championship to for them to win 16 playoff games. Going to have to hit some threes. He had just one, but he was one of one. Some tough twos, some good takes around the basket. And just he’s they have him guarding either McDaniels or a little bit Goar. Never Julius Randall. They’re like, “We we’re just keeping you away from that matchup. He’s going to bulldoze you.” Yeah, he’s saving your sternum and your ribs. He’s We’re going to make you We’re going to preserve you as a help defender and he’s just everywhere. Like there was that one play where he had he switched on to Deven Shenzo in the right corner because the Wolves kind of moved around their offense a little bit and Deven Shenzo’s like, “Cool, I’ll just drive baseline and see what happens.” And what happens is Chets’s like, “You’re just going to eat the basketball for dinner. How’s that? How’s that feel?” He was he was awesome. And then we saw them close the game. I mean, the game was already kind of closed, but with no bigs on the floor, they went to their sort of all wing, all guard, switch everything. and good luck figuring this thing out lineup. And you know, they have a little bit more lineup flexibility, I think, in this series than they did against Denver. And look, Minnesota had 88 points. 88 points. And I think we I guess we got to talk about the threes, right? 15 of 51. 50 threes, 88 points is never a good ratio. Hard to win in uh the NBA in 2025 when the other team takes 30 more threes than you. And yet they won running away. And I’m the tracking data nerds are already flagging it. They’re already awaiting the second spectrum data tomorrow. Now, did Minnesota underperform their expected shot variation by was this just a shot luck game? And I’ll be interested to see what that data actually says because they miss some good ones. But man, they make you take, first of all, no defense is better at helping, making you think you’re open, and then flying back at you while another guy stunts at you. So, at least there’s like stuff happening in your line of sight. And by the way, the guy flying at me has gigantic arms and he’s really fast and he’s like 23 years old and at the peak of his his athleticism. And a lot of them watching in real time, and we’re doing this right after the game, I haven’t gone back and rewatched them yet. They felt like long threes and a lot like early in the shot clock threes. And even the ones that are decent and 29 ft early in the shot clock are long and have the feel of like, well, I better shoot this one now cuz it’s pretty good and we we ain’t getting anything better than this. I’m letting it fly. And you know, I I thought for the most part, a lot of those threes were like decently contested. And for a lot of this game, it was Minnesota missing tough threes and Oklahoma City missing tough twos. And I think what should scare Minnesota a little bit is Oklahoma City started getting easier twos and making more of the twos as the game went on. Right. Well, if you’re Minnesota, the one thing you’re going to come out of the game is we have to get a better whistle on these SGA calls. Well, they were furious the whole game. I mean, they were fur they were furious going into the game, which is always kind of a bad sign. If you’re already like on edge about it, it’s it’s like you’re you’re it feels like your mind you just got to chill out a little bit. Accept that it’s going to be bad. But yeah, they’ll I’m sure some clips will be sent to the league office between games one and two. Deservedly. Look, I you know, I tweeted this in real time and I never tweet during games usually, but I just thought Shay and I don’t I don’t care. I didn’t I didn’t bet on the game. I didn’t really care who won. I just hope we have a long fun series. But I feel like Sheay is getting this whistle that nobody else in the playoffs is getting where the there’s little touch fouls or these bumps where you’re not even sure who initiated the bumps and he’s just getting it. And I think with Minnesota, you can see this. You saw it in the Lakers series, you saw in the last series, McDaniels can just have four or five fouls immediately and you don’t even know what happened. And when when he has fouls, I think Minnesota’s a different team because he’s kind of he’s their swing guy. Every team has a swing guy. I feel like he’s their swing guy. And once you put foul trouble on him and he’s not as uh not as aggressive, it’s then it comes down to like is a or you know are the threes going to go in or is aunt going to go nuts. The bench guys were also really bad. And there’s a there’s officially a Nasreed storyline that’s developed where he’s been bad for three weeks now where he hasn’t looked like this guy like when they when they really got hot when Randle was out. I think it was like February range and he was like 20 to 25 a night and you know seven eight rebounds a game and was like really impactful. I don’t think he’s figured out how to impact the team now that Randall is looking like Randall and uh today he was one for 11 obviously is about as bad as it’s going to get. But you do that Alexander Walker’s three for 11 and and Dante was three for 14. They’re not really built to survive three bench games, right? Yeah. Five. Five of 28 on threes combined for those three guys. First of all, 28 threes for three bench guys. That’s almost an accomplishment in and of itself. Like you’re almost having three bench guys take 10 threes a piece. And you said that about nine. Even Missoula’s like, I don’t know. That’s a lot. I thought I thought Missoula would be like in in like the jungles of the Amazon by now. Like he probably is. He doesn’t have cable right now. He’s no cable, no streaming right now. You know, you said that about Nas Reed and it seemed like a little unfair to me because I I in my head I mean it’s like been a while since the Wolves played. In my head I’m like he’s had some pretty good games. I’m looking back last three games against Golden State all single digits. first two he had 30 combined and then two singledigit games against the Lakers a really good game one which maybe is the one that’s sticking in my head but since then very quiet very quiet and it win or lose this series and whatever obviously Minnesota and their new ownership is going to have some big financial decisions to make and he’s a big one I didn’t realize we were going there already no we’re not we’re not I’m just saying you brought up there’s no free agents but there’s also no cap face and he’s and he’s such a legend there and deservedly so like the the just people just screaming Nas Reed in the streets and holding the Naz Reed towels. I hope he stays there forever. But look, I I think Minnesota will work their way into this series, but this game was um not a not the start you were hoping for. Could you come out of this like, “Oh jeez, man, this is going to be tough to score enough against these guys.” It exacerbated all the things I was worried about, which is ball handling, Connley’s age, the fact that they don’t really have a backup point guard that it seems like Edwards is going to have to have the ball a lot. And I think OKC was ready for that, especially in the second half. You could see like, oh, you’re going to have Edwards bring it up. We’re going to actually make it really difficult for him. And OKC with the especially at home with the ability to snap this snap the switch for four minutes. I’m worried for Minnesota. Um because I’m trying to think what’s the road mapap for them to be awesome in this series. When you think how bad OKC played for the first half of this game basically for them and then they still win the game easily. Um I guess it starts with Edwards who was only 18 points. Um typical like weird feeling it out. He does this sometimes. He didn’t there was a Laker game like this too. There was the first game of the Warriors series where it’s like this. It’s almost like a feelout game, but it lasts the whole game and then the game’s over and they lost. But I would assume he’s going to come out way more aggressive. I, you know, you do have to remind yourself all the time, don’t overreact to game one, even if it even and maybe especially if it confirms to your expectations about how the series would go because then your tendency is to really overreact to it. Um, road map number one is hit four more threes if you’re going to take 50 and that that does a lot of the work for you. But I will 1820. Yeah, I I’ll continue to say this like if they lose the turnover, if they lose the live ball turnover battle like that, because Oklahoma City had 12 turnovers, only five of those were steals. So that’s what did I say? 13 steals to five steals. If they lose that battle that badly and they don’t win the free throw battle by a significant margin, they’re just not going to win games. There’s just no math that’s going to help them win games. But step one is the threes. The Ant thing, like grade the Ant. What What grade would you give Ant this game? He does have games like this where like he has moments and first of all for him D+. Wow. For him, not D+ across the board for him. What do you want more of? What did you What did you see that concerned you? Swagger. I want I want yo, we’re playing the best team in the league and I’m in their house and I’m stealing this game from them. I didn’t feel that at all in this game. Now, he did get hurt in the fir in the first half, and I don’t know if that tweaked whatever was going on at all. Randall also had a huge first half, so maybe you back off, but um he’s got to win the swagger battle with this that this you beat OKC by it’s it sounds stupid. And it’s the opposite of second spectrum. And I liked your Second Spectrum voice that you broke out, by the way. The your nerdy second spectrum. It’s like, you know, I always tell people like I said it about the Celtics after game game one and game two against the Knicks. Hang the hang the shot quality championship banner. Congratulations. You had better shot quality. You’re you’re down two in the series. You got nothing for that. I think for him, he’s got to be talking He’s got to feel like he’s the alpha on the court. I didn’t feel that at all in this game. Randall, ironically, was the one that was starting to carry himself that way. And it was interesting to watch OKC swing their everything they were doing defensively to try to just kind of take him out. I mean, the Caruso piece of this, I was thinking how, as you know, I always want more awards because I think we need stuff to commemorate the season well after the fact and be like, “Oh, that was the season when this happened and this happened and this happened.” If we had a role player of the playoffs award, it feel like Caruso would be like minus 700 on FanDuel to take it at this point. He to watch somebody guard Randall Edwards and Joic well in a in a 48 hour span. Who else is doing that? Who else is in the Does it have to be a bench guy? Like is Josh Hart in the conversation? Is Andrew Nemhart in the conversation? Those guys are are other leaders. You have to think of it like it’s it’s a movie poster and it can’t be somebody who would be one of the two or three faces in the movie poster or in the like the TNT the when they’re doing the commercial for the game. It would be weird if they were in the game like Julius Randall is not eligible. He’s Aaron Gordon too too good for for for that. I think he is because if you’re doing the Nuggets movie poster it’s the three guys, right? So it’ be Christian Brown in that case would be your role. Nuggets movie poster is just Jokic sitting on the bench looking sad as as the lead is like frittered away. They always cut to him. It was the first it was the Nico Harrison in the crowd cut when anything bad would happen and then it became the Jokic on the bench camera when he’s looking up and it’s like oh there’s 11 minutes and 10 seconds left in the fourth quarter. I probably can’t come back yet. They want they they told me they wanted me to get to nine minutes. How did that Oh god, Russ just turned the ball over again. Oh, now it’s 10:50. Let’s talk. Can we talk a little more about Ant? Yeah. So, like the simplest explanation for why Oklahoma City is is very difficult to play against is if you’re Ant and you have the ball at the top of the top of the arc. Like, what what direction are you going against this defense? There’s no easy mark to go at. I thought at the beginning of the game he was starting to get traction in the goar pick and roll just like like not softest part of the defense but just I can always get a big guy like get Hartinstein up up the floor and like maybe I can get around him or there’s a pocket pass to go or something and then go only ends up playing 20 minutes. They play chat at center quite a bit. when Isaiah Joe was on the floor, Ant really wanted to go at him and they couldn’t get that switch. Like the Thunder were really good at hedging recovering and like you take that out of it and it’s like I don’t know where to go and you could try Shay but Ant has not really developed like the sort of back to the basket um bully ball game that I think he’d like. I mean he and I talked about it three four years ago in a phone interview. he he would like to do that and it just hasn’t it it’s just a there’s just not a lot of places to pick at whereas I thought the Thunder gradually were like Shay was like okay particularly when Gob Bears off the floor I can get some place against Randall I can attack Nas Reed’s feet in the pick and roll like I got play it’s not great like this is a really good defensive team too but I got things I can do and Ant is still figuring out kind of where he wants to poke at and I think he’s going to have a game where he finds the right the right places and stuff starts to open up for him. Maybe part of it is like like he likes to go one-on-one. He’s an incredible one-on-one player and he can beat almost anybody one-on-one and he he had a couple of those in this game, but again, it’s like if it’s Kase Wallace or somebody like that, like that’s no picnic and they’re going to pick you a lot of the time, too. Yeah, Kase Wallace was in there for a little bit and you OKC always has two guys you just completely forgot were on the team and then they’re just kicking ass for three straight minutes. I think the thing that OKC seems like they love is if somebody’s going straight up one-on-one almost like the old school one forward and it’s like I’m going to go one-on-one, beat a guy and just try to get to the basket. They’re like great, please try that. We’re we’re ready in so many different ways. It seems like you got to attack them on the sides with angles. Cuz I feel like the Celtics fell into the same kind of issues with Tatum when it would go bad when it was always like him 40 ft from the basket straight ahead versus when they would put him on the left or the right and he could kind of veer toward the paint and decide like what to do off the dribble. I always felt like he was better. Maybe that’s what they’re going to have to do with Edwards. And I thought they found something the first half with the Go Bear pick and rolls and then they just stopped. There there was a play in the second half where I don’t remember exactly. It was an ant pick and roll maybe with Goar and he got Kase Wallace on his hip and got him trapped kind of behind him and then snaked it. So he changed directions and it looked like he was going to have a driving lane to the right and that if Gobear was the screener, let’s just say Gobar was going to seal off everyone on the other side of the floor. and Caruso just ran in from the right corner off Alexander Walker and Aunt was like, “Oh my god, okay, I’ll kick the ball to Alexander Walker.” And it in real time I thought they had switched and then I rewatched it and it was like, “No, Caruso just ran all the way back to Alexander Walker, contested the three.” So Alexander Walker had to pump, put the ball on the floor for one dribble, rise up for a three, and then here comes Kase Wallace coming at me. and it was like a decent three, but it’s an example of a just couldn’t get a like an easy feel for there’s a clear path to the rim and I’m taking it and then they’re just flying at you and making you take like some decent threes, some bad threes. So, just there’s a great I mean, look, it’s not breaking news. They’re an awesome defensive team. Yeah. Well, the problem if you’re the other team that’s playing whoever the favorite, you kind of have to win game one, I feel like to pull off an upset. The the Thunder were 68 and 14 this season. They’re eight and three in the playoffs. Now you have to beat them four out of six times basically to send them packing and that includes winning um at least one game on the road, right? And in I guess game seven on the road. Just a tall task. I thought this was the game they had to steal, especially OKC. Definitely seemed tired that first half. Randle’s playing great. This is the game you probably take. So, I don’t I don’t really know in terms of tweaks. I feel like it’s going to be easier for OKC to tweak this and use the, you know, the last quarter and a half to their advantage. [Music]

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons is joined by Zach Lowe to react to OKC taking Game 1 of the WCF against the Timberwolves.

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