Philadelphia 76ers: Trading down from #3, Quentin Grimes, & more | 2025 Mock Offseason | Salarycast

Philadelphia 76ers: Trading down from #3, Quentin Grimes, & more | 2025 Mock Offseason | Salarycast

Hey, welcome to the show. I’m Yosi Goslin, NBA salary cap analyst, and this salary casted on the Philadelphia 76ers. I’m going to do a mockoff season on them in which I’m going to break down some hypothetical moves and show how they could accomplish their goals within all the salary cap rules. Make sure you’re following me on Twitter and Blue Sky, my name, Yosi Goslin. Now is the best time of year to be following me. Even have me on notifications as moves happen. I’m going to have a lot of good cap analysis on them. Uh, make sure to subscribe to me on YouTube, Spotify, Apple for all the previous content and check out all the other previous work I did. Uh, and news my newsletter, Third Apron. I’ve got already a Sixers offseason analysis on in there uh, in Third Apron. I’ve got a podcast where I discuss them as well on the channel. So, make sure you check those. I put the link in the description. And I am going to have I’m mainly going to explore in this one how Sixers trading down from three to a little later in the lottery. Uh because I think they need to save a little bit of money and I’m going to explore how that works. Also look at some of their top free agents, mainly Quinn and Grimes, what a contract might look like. I know some of you might be thinking, why don’t you just make a video of the Sixers blowing it up? That’d be more fun and their future is pretty bleak anyways. But I don’t think the Sixers are going to do that. I’d be stunned if they blow it up this summer. I think they’re going to run it back and I’m just going to assume they’re going to keep the core together and just make some incremental moves to improve the team. So, let’s get to it. So, let’s take a look at the Sixers payroll first and see where they’re at according to the tax apron, all that good stuff. So, uh right now they’re right up against the luxury tax line and they’re about, you know, pretty close to the first apron and a good amount below the second apron and they’re already at a pretty full almost full roster 13 players. The biggest question heading into the season was whe they’re going to keep their pick. Uh they were projected to get the fifth pick and not only did they keep it, they ended up going up to three. So they’re going to owe a pick next year to Oklahoma City instead. But uh the number three pick much higher salary than the number five pick. So their payroll went up. And the thing is they’re going to need to save a little bit of money because since they’re so close to the first apron, they’re already slightly above the tax. Um, my feeling is that they’re going to be willing to pay some tax. They have avoided the past three years, but they always started above it and got below it later if if needed, if they were reasonably close within. So, when I do my the mock off season here, I’m going to have them go above the tax, go above the first apron, but stay like a good amount below the second apron reasonably enough where they could go get below the tax later if needed. Um especially because Quinn Grimes, he’s going to command a pretty big salary. Uh I’ll get into shortly what that might be. Also, Gershan Yabusle, their other main free agent, he’s going to want a pay raise as well. Now, how are the Sixers going to save money? And before I get into anything, I just want to preface this that I don’t think it there is a Paul George trade realistically out there. I’ve seen some proposals out there, stuff like Paul George in three to Utah for Lowry Markin in five. Yeah, the Sixers would absolutely love to do something like that. uh doesn’t make any sense for the Jazz. The Jazz would probably need a lot more for taking on the last three years of Paul George’s deal. Maybe they need some future picks from the Sixers. And if you’re the Sixers, you got all this uncertainty with Embiid. We don’t know how good Paul George is going to be. Like, why trade future picks just to get off that salary. So, yeah, the contract’s not looking good right now, but I just don’t think it makes any sense for the Sixers right now to give up assets, uh, you know, lose the value proposition to get off this contract. So, how are the Sixers going to save money then? Because all their money is for the most part tied up with their top three guys and the number three pick. Uh, so they’re g that’s why they’re going to trade down in this mock off season. I’m going to have them downgrade from three to a lower selection and in the process have them save some money. Uh, probably have them dump Andre Drummond and there as far as the other minimum players, I’ll get into what the Sixers might do, what decisions they might make on those guys a little later. And just really quickly, here are their exceptions. They are probably going to have the tax pyramid level, assuming that they go over the first apron, which I think they’re going to do, which then means they’re not going to have access to these trade exceptions of teams that are over the first apron cannot use exceptions generated in previous seasons. So, let’s take a look at Quinn Grimes market and see what he could command in free agency. So before the he got to the Sixers, I always felt he was like a like a sub slightly sub below mid-level exception level guy uh from his time with the Knicks. And I think his time with the Mavs really validated that. And then he exceeded a lot of expectations when he joined the Sixers. And now it’s kind of all over the place what he might command. I’ve seen some project projections put him as like a 20 million a year range guy. I could be wrong, but I’m just not there at all. I’m not sure how much to take away from what he did with the Sixers. He got a really high usage, really great opportunity with all the injuries in Philadelphia, and he really thrived in that situation. Um, and I think that was what the Sixers want from him. They want him to be a great fourth or fifth option once the team is fully healthy, which I think is probably what he’s best suited for. The other thing though is that he’s restricted. He’s a restricted free agent. Restricted free agency is always really has a lot of limitations uh towards what you can get because teams, you know, the Sixers have the right to match an offer and so teams might be dissuaded from even making one. But also, there’s really no cap space out there. It’s just the Nets. They’re the only team that can offer more than mid-level exception, uh, which starts at 14.1 million. If you’re the Nets, do you want to make a big offer to see if the Sixers sweat? Where does Quinn and Grimes really fit early on in this rebuild? So, I’m not sure the offers are really going to be out there for him. In which case, something I could see his situation uh go playing out is him the Sixers giving him a deal slightly above what other teams could offer. Uh most teams have the full mid-level exception that starts at 14 million could go up to four years 61 million. So here’s a little projection I made uh where it’s the first year salary starts like a little bit above it roughly a million above it and you he has a fifth year. So with the maximum raises he can get tops out at five for 90. So he gets an additional year then from the Sixers which they can offer and other teams can’t. If he gets substantially more from the Nets or something then they might want to just consider signing trading him. see if there’s another team out there willing to give him a little something. Uh give up a little more than what they originally traded to get for him. Uh and then in that case, they still have their draft pick. It’s a very guard heavy draft at the top of the lottery. Uh good chance they could replace him there. And as for Gershon Yabule, the Sixers are kind of limited in terms of what they can offer. So there’s a couple ways they can go about it. the first uh since they’re over the first apron, they could at the most offer him the tax pyramid level exception, which starts at 5.7 million, could go up to 2 years, tops out at 11.6 million. Um, alternatively, the most they can give him through his the limited rights they have is 120% raise off his minimum salary for this year, which is roughly 2.85 million. So, I don’t know exactly what the market is. I like with Grimes, a lot of people are higher on him than what I think the market might be on Yabulele. My feeling is one of these two should work. Uh if if I’m going to assume on the highest end, he was probably going to require the taxpayer level. I could see some teams willing to get to that range to steal him away from the Sixers. And in either case, probably gets a player option on the second year, so he can potentially decline it. and then he gets early bird rice and then the Sixers can potentially resign him to more money uh if he makes another improvement. Um I could be wrong unless a lot of teams out there view him as like the next PJ Tucker and are willing to go like give him uh close to the full mid-level amount or or you know even the whole thing. I I get the feeling the Sixers shouldn’t have such a hard time keeping him. And I want to take a look at the Sixers draft pick situation really quickly just to explain why I don’t expect them to trade any future picks or like consolidate any uh you know for to improve the team right now. And it’s mostly because of the uncertainty to Embiid. I would be surprised if they moved any future draft equity uh unless they’re getting a young superstar and I just don’t see one coming their way. So here’s what they’ve got going on. Uh they’ve got the third overall pick. They owe that uh 2026 pick to the Thunder. And they owe a 2028 first to the Nets. That’s top eight protected. But in place of that, they have an unprotected first from the Clippers coming their way from the James Harden trade. So at the most, they can trade up to three first if they wanted to do that. But as you can see, it’s not not a lot of they don’t really have any extra first round picks. They’re pretty neutral right now. I mean, if anything, they’re they’re down two uh because they’re going to owe those 26 and 28s. So, because of this deficit and because of the uncertainty to Embiid and, you know, how how much how good can they be for how much longer, I could see them actually looking to uh add more future first round picks to their arsenal. And that can be I think is possibly could be done by trading the third overall pick trading down with some of the teams that are picking slightly below them. Feels like the draft begins at three, but it really gets wide open starting there. So the Sixers would probably only consider moving down if there’s someone they really like in that 5 through nine range, which I think is definitely possible. Um, and obviously right now still early. It’s only May 20th. We’re a month away from a draft, so they don’t even know the answer to that quite yet. But maybe in a month from now, they’ll know. So, let’s get into some scenarios. So, I’m going to show three different trades. This assumes that there is a bidding war brewing among the teams picking right below the Sixers to move up to the top three. Uh, all these teams, they had among the worst records in the league and all fell several spots out of the lottery. Uh, so first I’m going to start with the Jazz. This is a team I could see wanting to get a little high a little higher. A lot of extra picks. A lot of ways they can go about this. Uh, simplest could be just attaching one additional first. They have their the 21st overall pick in this draft. Uh, that’s something, you know, if you’re just moving two spots, uh, that’s something I could see the Sixers being okay with. They could also add a future first round pick. They have, uh, extra first round picks in all the oddnumbered years. Also, I like the idea of Taylor Hendrickx on the Sixers. U, I don’t think the Jazz would do that, but I feel like the actualized version of Hendrickx would be a really nice fit on the Sixers. Uh, so that’s just another way maybe the Sixers would consider moving down two spots. So I just put this framework pretty simple, just attach a 21 and the Jazz are taking back Drummond. They’ve got a trade exception to make it work. However, this deal only saves about 3.5 million. So let’s see if the Sixers could do a little better than this. Also, should be noted that when teams are trading draft picks, particularly picks uh in the upcoming draft, there is no salary matching required. only the players in the in the trade. There has to be a mechanism for the team to acquire them. So, since the Jazz have a trade exception right now, they’re not sending back any players, they could take back Drummond. So, here’s another version. Pretty much the same deal, slight variation involving the Wizards. Uh so, the Sixers go down to six. They’d go down three spots, but instead of getting that at 21, they get a slightly better pick in the middle of the first round with 18. Uh the Wizards also have several future first under their disposal. So, I just put the same exact type of trade I did with the previous one. Um, and at this point, you know, we’re kind of at the point where these deals are so similar that if there is a that if there is a bidding war starting to happen, then okay, maybe these teams have to throw in a little extra something, maybe a future first round pick, I don’t know. Uh, but Sixers don’t save that much more money than the previous one, only 3.9 million. So, let’s get to uh the one I consider my favorite framework. So, this one involves the Brooklyn Nets. They fell down considerably bad in the lottery and they have the widest gap out of all the teams mentioned uh between three and eight. So if the Nets or any of these teams they are in on one of the top guys probably Ace Bailey at three as of now and they just want to bet on pure upside and they you know they don’t feel as good for any of the guys they have in their range then this is the type of framework I could see getting it done uh for the Sixers. So here they save a lot more money than in the other two deals uh by getting off Drummond as well. Going from that $11 million salary for number three to 7 million for eight and a very small salary for that 26 pick. You’re saving $6.3 million. And I have them getting back their own first round pick in 2028. This is one of the picks that the Sixers or originally gave to the Nets to get James Harden uh three years ago. Now that was by getting their own pick back in a couple years. that opens up the possibility of potentially entering a rebuild if things really go bad or you start to free up the ability to trade even more picks if there is some young superstar trade opportunity that comes in the future. So, let’s take a look at the final roster I put together. Uh, I went with the Nets trade, which I said was my favorite out of the three. First, let’s look at the contracts that I put out for Quinn Grimes and Gersa. gave the same starting salaries that I laid out earlier in the video and they’ve got a full 15-man roster now. I had Kelly Ubé picking up his player option. There is some reporting that uh all the guys with player options might do that. Uh except I had Eric Gordon decline his. The reason for that is because uh his it’s like a $3.4 million player option. If he declines it and signs a minimum salary with just about anybody, he’ll get more money because the salary cap rose. So, I’ve got him leaving there. The it’s there’s a very crowded guard rotation there. Very good chance they that’s who they even get with the eighth pick if that’s the best player available. And I did the same thing with Lonnie Walker with his team option. It was like almost 3 million. Uh I have Sixers declining it. They resigned to the vet minimum. So, it’s at 2.3 million, but he’s actually making more than that. But on the Sixers end, it only counts as that. So, it’s a win-win on both sides. And I’ve got just about everybody else coming back. Uh, I’ve got them with that extra pick from that trade and they have a early second round pick which would probably have a salary around here like the the the minimum salary for a player with one year of service. And this all leaves them they’re about like they have like a $20 million tax payment. Uh, but as far as the aprons are concerned, they’re a little bit over the first apron and 6.3 million below the second apron. This is the same exact proximity that they were below the second apron after they did all their moves last year after signing Paul George to the max and giving KJ Martin that contract uh that that put him well into the tax and first apron. So, they’re in a similar type of territory where if they if things don’t work out and they want to duck the tax later, they can do that with a couple moves. If uh they can do that with like a Kelly Ubé and uh let’s just dump Kelly Ubé and Gershan Yabusle assuming they’re on one-year deals. Boom. You duck the tax. Might want to, you know, dump one more guy just for safe measure cuz this is all done at the trade deadline. Still got to be able to fill up the roster later. It’s been a really long time since we’ve seen teams at the top of the lottery trade their selections in the draft, trade down. But if there’s any draft that that might happen in, I feel pretty good about this one, especially after the chaotic lottery that we just have. So yeah, let me know what you guys think in the comments. Do you think that the Sixers are getting enough for trading down? Or maybe these teams are giving up a little too much to make it up to the uh the third overall pick in what seems to be like a more wide open territory there. Are there any types of trades, other types of trades you’d like to see the Sixers pursue if they were going to trade down? Uh let me know. And yeah, like I said earlier, make sure you’re following me on everything listed in the overlays, Twitter, Blue Sky, YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcast. Uh, subscribe to Third Apron. We’re having a sale there right now. And check out the link in the description about Sports Business Classroom. I’m going to be an instructor there. And I have a promo code if you want to join.

The Philadelphia 76ers lucked out by keeping their pick and seeing it rise to the top 3. They now have the challenge of fielding a competitive team while keeping expenses controlled. They already have a high payroll before re-signing Quentin Grimes and Guerschon Yabusele. They’ll need to save money, but it probably won’t be from trading Paul George.

In this video, I analyze the Sixers’ salary cap situation for their upcoming offseason, re-sign Quentin Grimes and Guerschon Yabusele to new contracts, and trade down from #3 for extra draft picks.

Sixers offseason preview: https://www.thirdapron.com/p/philadelphia-76ers-2025-offseason
Sixers offseason discussion: https://youtube.com/live/YlwNmJYe0KQ

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