How the Indiana Pacers can beat the OKC Thunder in the NBA Finals

How the Indiana Pacers can beat the OKC Thunder in the NBA Finals

I have said on the show that I think the Thunder would beat up on the Pacers or the Knicks if they went to the finals. And we’ve had some discussion about it on the show centering around game plan, which I’m sure Jackson will mention. Um, but I am I am like leaning towards OKC and five, maybe even four. So, I want to give I want to give Jackson a chance to make the case for why he thinks at least you’re you’re I’m guessing you’re saying at least you expect a longer, more competitive series. Yeah, I do think OKC should be, you know, a substantial favorite and I would pick them to win the series. I just think that the Patriots have a ch are have a build of a team and have some key attributes that make them potent potentially able to give the Thunder some promise to win a few games. And it mainly comes down to three things. One, they they and Hallebertton in general, as we’ve discussed a lot, do not turn the basketball over. They are bottom five in the league in, you know, team turnovers on offensive turnovers. and Howie, you know, 15 assists, no turnovers tonight is evidence of of how how lethal that that can be, especially against a team like the Thunder that forces the most turnovers in the league. Really thrives in transition, as we’ve discussed. Second thing, the Pacers, I haven’t seen a team in a while that are this committed to punishing smalls in switches with with with a player who’s not their best their lead guy, right? Most teams with like if they get a switch, they want to take Brunson and have him go against whoever your worst defender is. Tatum have him go against. They’re like, “No, we don’t even care. We don’t need Hi to iso cat. If we got Pascal, if Brunson is guarding Pascal switch, we are going to give him the ball over and over and over and over and over. They are so so committed to it. It’s it’s really it’s really impressive.” And um the third thing is they this is sort of more of a game plan potentially specific thing as as we’ve discussed depending on how OKC guards the Pacers move the ball as well as any team this season as well as any team I can remember in the last you know since maybe the Warriors. They move that freaking basketball and the OKC Thunder in their normal defense that they run that they haven’t really changed to this point. Maybe they’ll change it against Indiana, but they haven’t really changed much. They That’s how you beat them is with a is with a lot of passes, with a lot of ball ball movement, getting your advantage and saying we want to we we get our first advantage. Let’s find the best possible shot that we can get out of that advantage. Now, if the Thunder change up their defensive game plan and say just score as many points as you can, Tyrese Hallebertton, that you know changes the calculus a little bit. But it feels like the Pacers have offensively at least theoretically have some of the things that are required to beat a defense as good as the Thunder. Great breakdown. I think the thing that you hit on that is especially important is the way that the Pacers attack switches. It’s different than what like Tatum and Brown were doing, right? They’re not like, “Oh, we have this six- foot tall guy in space. Let me face him up from 24 feet from the basket.” Like, it’s no like Turner Turner in particular is like beating switches at the rim. Like at the rim. He’s like, it’s whether it’s an offensive rebound or it’s a deep seal, it’s at the rim. And then Seiakum will occasionally go to like a right shoulder fade or a left shoulder fade, but he’s attacking those mismatches very close to the rim, and that is going to be a key part there. Now, the uh let’s go through some of the specifics. So, the uh the passing the ball through Oklahoma City’s defense part. This is where it gets fascinating because I actually do think there’s a solid chance that Mark I I trust Mark Dagginal as a very smart basketball coach to know that what Denver did what Minnesota has done in terms of sagging and forcing Shay to shoot over the top and to make passing reads is the best way uh or excuse me with the uh um with the with these other teams and how they have um been really aggressive. to forward aggressive against like Minnesota like picking up ant fullcourt uh making them pass against blitzes in ball pressure and Julius Randle getting double teamed on every post up like that worked against them and I think he knows that Indiana is a better passing team that doesn’t turn the basketball over but I I I I trust Dagnalt to know that it may not be the best game plan but I also wouldn’t be surprised if he tried it anyway right I wouldn’t be surprised if he was like, “Let’s just see if they [ __ ] their pants,” you know, like, “Let’s Hallebertton’s never played in the finals before. Let’s give him Lou Dort physical defense at the point of attack. Let’s just see what happens.” Right. And I think the main key there is going to be if Indiana does have success against it, will he pivot quickly now? to your point about having it be a longer series. Let’s say that they come out in game one and it’s forward aggressive overhelp leaving weak side skips open and the Pacers steal game one. Then there’s a really good chance this goes six because then we’re probably getting at least two if not three Indiana home games. And I wouldn’t be shocked if they got one of those games and now it’s a six game series. So to your point like that that I can see absolutely playing a role. My main contention is that if he does make the game plan change, so again, you load up strong side Tyres Hallebertton is just rifling skip passes over the top. They’re playing with an advantage. I do think with the double I do think with the postups and the the switch attacking with Turner and Seakkum, I think that he’ll double. I think that he’ll double immediately. And I think it’ll be a bigger challenge for Seakum and Turner to deal with those double teams than it is in some of these other matchups. I mean, to put it simply, we’ve seen a lot of people, including Jokic, kind of like fall apart. Yeah. Yic had a three-game stretch where he was bad. Yeah. Against OKC. So, like, there’s a certain there’s a certain amount of that there, too. My main contention is that inevitably I think this series devolves down to we’re staying home, right? We’re guarding Hallebertton one-on-one, regarding actions twoon two, threeman actions threeonree, we’re communicating through switches, we’re switching everything. You try scoring on us one-on-one over and over again. Yeah. And they’re just not the team that’s going to make as many mistakes as the Knicks made. And that that’s where I I think it gets a little it gets a little tricky. But to your point, all it takes is Oklahoma City bringing their base game plan. Hallebertton passing through it, not turning the ball over. Uh Seakam and Turner doing damage against switches. You steal a game in OKC early in the series before the game plan shifts, right? Then all of a sudden, you win a game in Indiana off the strength of your home crowd. And to your point, anything can happen. So if it’s, let’s say it’s 2-2 going back to Oklahoma City, what if Oklahoma City shits their pants in a bunch of in a bunch of big ways? I have not been to the finals. That’s a great point. So, also have not been to the finals. I mean, so what do you think like what Let me just put it to you this way. If you had to guess how OKC guards and how quickly Mark Dagel pivots, what would you expect to happen? I expect Dort on Hi to start both because he’s the best on ball defender option as well as he’s so strong that you think you if you’re the Thunder you’re talking yourself into we can survive a Pascal switch on Ludor if we feel like switching we can survive that. So, I think that’s sort of like the big question right away is are they going to switch any of those pick and rolls with Seakkum or anybody and and do they feel comfortable with any any of their sort of wing guard defenders in those switches. Um, but it’s going to be interesting to see OKC has so many guys. They got so many defensive bodies. They ran a lineup at one point in the second half yesterday that I don’t think they do that often. They do sometimes where they had Kase Wallace, Caruso, and Dort on the floor at the same time. I’m like, what are you supposed to do as an offense when those three dudes are defending your one, your two, and your three? It’s like that is that is terrifying. So that and I I do think the doubling is going to happen for sure once Pascal and and Miles inevitably, you know, punish some of those switches. And we will see. It’ll be very interesting to see if Aaron N. Smith can stay hot, be he’s a very streaky shooter. And if Andrew Nehard can can stay as playoff Klay Thompson because I looked up the numbers the other day and he shoots something like 32% from three in the regular season and over his career in the playoffs he’s over 50%. So if he can keep hitting over 50% of their threes like they got a shot for real. Not even got a shot but they got a shot to make it competitive. I think they got a shot to make it competitive. If if those guys can can be can can be can can knock down more shots than Kase Wallace, Lou Dort, Chad Homegrren. etc. One of the things we haven’t even talked about yet that I think is worth mentioning, by the way, guys, like my I have not done any prep yet for this potential series, so I haven’t watched gone back to rewatch their regular season matchups. I could very well change my mind. My initial gut feeling was that the Timberwolves would beat Oklahoma City. I gave them a slight edge in my initial gut feeling. Then I went to watch the film and I was like, uhoh. like I don’t think they’re going to be able to get Julius Randle the ball in places where he can score and I don’t think they’re going to be able to go to Nsbury on the block. So, you know, maybe I changed my mind after seeing some stuff. The Let’s talk through the Pacers on defense in this matchup for a second. One of the things that I found interesting in the film of the Timberwolves Thunder series is Jaden McDaniels has been awful on Shay. Like straight up awful. like the second straight year where he’s been like straight up non-effective on ball against a star in the conference finals. Yeah. Now I my theory is is that it’s matchup based in the sense that I think Luca was way too big and strong for him and I think Shay is too fast for him. And so there’s this other conversation to have which is like are wiry 68 defensive wings just like not versatile enough to if you’re not strong enough for one guy and you’re not quick enough for another guy like what what are you good enough for? Yeah. Exactly. And and like it’s bad because like I would argue those two series have swung on Jaden’s complete inability to make the stars uncomfortable from the other team. Right. Um and but and then looking at the Pacers, it’s probably going to be Neith. Let’s have a N Smith conversation. Yes, exactly. And N Smith, like we talked about earlier, Jaden has been, we just we were talking about in the show, like Jaden’s stances have been so frustrating for me watching on film as he’s like conceding driving angles to Shay. And I think Nith, if he can square him up, navigate screens well, keep him in front, force him to be an over the top shooter without them having to overdo the help. But like there were a lot of stretches in tonight’s game where the rotation like the defensive backside rotations for the Pacers are super impressive. Seakum had three or four crazy weak side closeouts on OG and Anobi where he chased him off the line like an OG hit a [ __ ] crazy step back over him on one of them. But like his ability to help and then rotate there. You could see I I could talk myself into the Pacers being an interesting defensive matchup for the Thunder because Turner can protect the rim. Mhm. Uh Seakum’s an excellent weak side rotational player. Like even Hallebertton I think is underrated as kind of like a dude does his job on defense kind of guy. And then what if Nith just slides his feet well and contains against Shay? Um I’m going to go ahead and say Jackson that you’ve convinced me. I think that I think that the Pacers have a better chance to make it competitive against the Thunder than uh uh than I was giving them credit for. That said, I would still be really surprised if they won the series. Me, too. Uh, but yeah, I think you’re right about the fact that the Pacers are just a really good team that you could argue just Indiana being in the right place all the time as like a help and recover rotation team will inherently cause a bunch of 22 year olds to suck in the finals. This is the other thing I was going to say that I forgot. It does feel like because OKC is so smart and so fast and they’re so connected on both ends that you really have to be wellconed as as a unit to beat them, which the Timberwolves are not. The Timberwolves are the farthest thing from well-connected. They’re very talented, but they got Julius Randle and Rudy Goar. They’re not going to be well connected, right? And so I think the Pacers are superly synergistically in flow right now and that is going to go a long way against a team as smart and fast and athletic as the Thunder. That’s a good point. I think I think that I think that that is the key there is like they’re older, they’re more experienced, they there’s a version of this where they just do all the right things in two NBA Finals games and the 22 year olds just kind of struggle in the moment. So, there’s a version of that, too. And and to your point, like if they run and they move the ball well, they’re going to get open threes, especially against Oklahoma City’s base game plan. It’s going to be interesting. I’m excited to dive into the film. Obviously, we’ll wait until both series actually finish before we do that. Um, but that’s going to be a that’s going to be a really fascinating series. I’m super uh interested in it.

Jason and his producer, Jackson, break down the path for the Indiana Pacers to be competitive against the Oklahoma City Thunder in the NBA Finals, the Tyrese Haliburton vs. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander matchup, and more.

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