Josh Giddey is Going to Get Paid….And it Won’t be THAT Bad

Josh Giddey is Going to Get Paid….And it Won’t be THAT Bad

When the Bulls traded for Josh Giddy last summer, executing what is now widely a controversial and heavily debated trade amongst Bulls fans in which the Bulls traded arguably their most valuable trade asset at the time and Alex Caruso in exchange for Josh Giddy and only Josh Giddy. Despite the Thunder holding a mountain of draft picks and making it known that they didn’t really value Josh Giddy as highly as some did. But regardless of where you stand on the return from that trade, who won the trade, who didn’t, I still personally think both teams got what they wanted in that deal. and the trade itself wasn’t as egregious as a lot of Bulls fans, including members of the media, are making it out to be. That said, I think the Bulls biggest issue with the exchange of this trade is that they would immediately be under the clock, under the gun and handing Giddy a big contract rather than taking on a costcontrolled asset that still had more years on their rookie scale deal, which the Bulls could have gotten for a player like Caruso given his salary. And because the Bulls and Giddy did not reach an agreement on an extension before this past season started, which was to be expected, he is now set to become a restricted free agent this summer, where Giddy is able to go out and get offers from other teams. And the Bulls have the ability to match any offer he obtains in order to retain him. Now, this of course is going to be one of the biggest topics or transactional moves for the Bulls this off seasonason. It’s Josh Giddy’s extension and what they’re going to do with Kobe White. And because I’ve seen so many differing opinions and wildly different views on how much Josh Giddy should get paid or even paid at all. In other words, the bull should just look to sign and trade him or let him walk. So, in this video, I’m here to talk about the mechanics and economics behind Giddy’s potential contract and why he absolutely will be getting paid handsomely this summer. And yes, it will be by the Bulls. So, what’s going on everyone? You’re listening to Bull Central here. Hope you’re all doing well. Before I continue on with the Bulls closely, you know Josh Giddy had a rocky start to his tenure with the organization where he wasn’t producing, or I shouldn’t say wasn’t producing, but wasn’t providing positive impact when he was on the floor. The Bulls had substantially lower net ratings when he was on the court. And while Giddy’s overall numbers were okay, his box plus minus and on-off numbers remained in the negative, and it was in large part due to Giddy’s horrendous defense, but also his high rate of turning the ball over and also his inability to finish at the rim. all things we knew were problems from his time in OKC and was a big reason why the Thunder ultimately moved on from him because he had proven to be a liability in that playoff series against the Mavs where they were eliminated. Some may not remember, but there was a stretch where Billy Donovan was opting not to close out games with Josh Giddy and instead was going with guys like IO and Patrick Williams and even Lonzo Ball if he hadn’t reached his minutes restriction. And during that time, you had a lot of people saying, “Well, what does this mean for Josh Giddy and his long-term viability with this team if he’s too much of a liability to even close out games?” But in the second half of the season, and this was especially the case after the Bulls traded Zack Lavine, something changed for Josh Giddy to where he finally looked comfortable out there and started playing some of the best basketball of his career. He started shooting the ball much better where he shot a ridiculous 45% from three after the All-Star break. He was much more effective in driving to the basket and finishing through contact. He would go 50% from the field post all-star break and 80% from the free throw line on the highest volume of his career from the line. A true shooting percentage of 62% which was the highest he’s ever had at any stretch in his career. He would average 211 and 9 post all-star break. And wouldn’t you know it, the Bulls would have their best stretch of the season in actually playing winning basketball. Giddy would ultimately finish the season with the highest box plus minus of his career, the highest value over replacement player of his career, and even a positive net rating. Now, yes, I know everyone likes to say, you know, hey, take March and April basketball with a grain of salt, which there is some truth to that, and I do agree. We need to be able to see Giddy producing like that consistently for an entire season. But I also think people downplay that the Bulls, they actually did play a lot of teams that were trying and fighting for playoff positioning. and the teams that were either under manned because they were injured or outright tanking, the Bulls took care of business against those teams and Josh Giddy was one of the centerpieces in getting them there. So, I won’t deny that the competition was at times watered down, but they also played some tough games against tough competition and Giddy consistently produced and played exceptionally well during that time period. Like, say what you will about this team, but the Bulls and their play post All-Star break was some of the best and most exciting basketball we’ve seen from this team since the beginning of the 2021 season before Lonzo Ball got injured. Now, the point in me going through all of that was to add the context around how Giddy started and closed out the season and how it impacts his overall contract extension and what his market value will be going into the summer. Now, of course, the number we keep hearing of what’s been reported and what Josh Giddy is sinking in his next contract is 5 years, $150 million, which comes out to about $30 million annually. Now, when you hear that figure, you initially get hit with some sticker shock because 30 million annually normally is reserved for players who were at all-star caliber level type guys. And even as good as Josh Kitty was down the stretch, $150 million contract seems like a big overpay for a player that still has a lot of flaws to his game and still has a lot to prove. Most importantly, can he contribute and play at the highest level in the playoffs? And while I still maintain that paying Giddy in the $30 million year range is a bit of an overpay, especially when the Bulls have the most leverage in the situation with only one team being the Brooklyn Nets that actually have the cap space to sign him to that amount. But when you peel things back a bit and compare Giddy to his peers, as well as comparing his upcoming pay relative to the NBA’s increasing salary cap, it’s not as bad as some fans are making it out to be. Now, let’s say for a moment Giddy gets his 5-year, $150 million contract that he’s looking for. The Bulls, they give him that. Well, put aside the negotiation and the Bulls leverage for a moment. strictly looking at the contract in a vacuum at $30 million a year, which we don’t know if the contract would be front-loaded, backloaded, or flat for the full 5 years, but let’s just call it $30 million for the full 5 years flat. The NBA salary cap next season is projected to be at $154.6 million, which is a 10% increase from last season. At $30 million a year, that’s about 19% of the team’s overall cap in the first year of his contract. For context, a max contract is usually 25% of the team’s salary and up to 30% at the supermax level. Giddy would be at 19%. And as the salary cap increases year-over-year, which it’s expected to increase by 10% for the foreseeable future, that contract, at least as it relates to the team’s overall cap, will become more and more favorable over time. And by the final year of his deal, again, assuming the contract remains flat, you’re talking about an annual salary that is very team friendly. Assuming Giddy continues to improve as a player and also the fact that he’ll be in his prime at that time at age 27. If Giddy was looking for a max contract or say the Bulls were considering paying him the max, yeah, then we would have problems and giving a max contract would be a disaster for the Bulls and put them right back into a situation they found themselves in with Zack Lavine with little flexibility to get out of it. Now, you also have to consider Giddy’s value and also what his expectations are relative to his peers. When you look at Giddy’s draft class alone, the guys that were drafted ahead of him have all gotten paid. Kade Cunningham, max, $224 million deal, which is now near $270 million as he qualifies for the Super Max, having made an allNBA team. Evan Moley, max. Scotty Barnes, max. All deals over $220 million. Jaylen Green, 3 years, 106 million, which equates to 35 million annually. And then Jaylen Suggs, he got the contract Gide is seeking, 5 years, $150 million. Like yes, those first four draft picks in 2021, I won’t deny they’re all better than Josh Giddy. Although I do think there could be an argument made that Giddy is maybe more reliable and smarter on the court than a player like Jaylen Green, but Jaylen Suggs, while him and Giddy are very different players, I don’t think you can say with a certainty that Suggs is worth more money than Josh Giddy. Maybe right now you could say Suggs is more valuable because of how much he means to the Magic and the level of impact he brings on the defensive end, but from a long-term perspective, is Suggs worth more money than Josh Giddy? Suggs, like Giddy, equally has his flaws to his game. Very susceptible to turnovers, inconsistent shooter, isn’t a playmaking guard. He’s a dog on defense, which Giddy is not. But my point is, Suggs is just as much of a flawed player as Josh Giddy is. But not only that, Suggs is much more injuryprone, whereas Giddy thus far anyway has been more durable. Now, when I saw the Magic give Suggs that contract, I immediately thought it was a gross overpay, which I still kind of do. Regardless of whether we think it’s a big overpay or not, it set the market for what you can expect for players at his caliber. And Su’s contract absolutely will be a factor in determining Josh Giddy’s worth. Let’s also not forget that France Vagner got a max contract as well, which is still hilarious to me. But again, just goes back to further setting the market for this draft class of 2021. Now, when it comes to the Bulls and how they should handle Giddy’s impending free agency, what I think the Bulls should do versus what they will do is different. But what I think the Bulls should do is let Giddy test the market. Let the market dictate his value. Let him get offers which again aren’t going to be that great because teams don’t have the cap space this summer to sign him. And when he sees there really isn’t much of a market for him to get a massive payday, then the Bulls are able to demonstrate they have leverage and they give Giddy a sizable contract, one that he deserves, but is also fair market value. Like I’m not in the camp of lowballing the guy just because you can. Now, I see a lot of fans and even some in the media saying the bull should offer him $18 million a year and say take it or leave it because you also have to remember the human element in all of this, which I’ve talked about before. As much as we view these guys like commodities/ assets, they’re still human beings at the end of the day. And as much as this is a business, there is also the relationship building side of the business. And the last thing you want to do is piss off one of your employees by giving them a low ball offer just because you can. And then run the risk of that player being jaded, disgruntled, and then not really wanting to be a part of the team. But then also other players around the league, they’ll remember that. They’ll remember that the next time they think about coming to play for Chicago as the team that screws over their players. So, while the Bulls will have leverage this off season with Giddy and should use their leverage to their advantage by not negotiating against themselves like they did with Vuchovic, Patrick Williams, even Zack Lavine, but they can’t lowball the guy either. That’s just bad business. Now, for me personally, I would much rather see Giddy getting something in the range of $25 million a year that offers you a bit more flexibility, not only in this upcoming season to use more of your mid-level exception, but also beyond when the salary cap increases, particularly this summer of 2026 when the Bulls are expected to have a ton of cap space. And because no other team outside of the Brooklyn Nets can offer Giddy that amount, if the Bulls are smart, which let’s be real, they haven’t really shown that in recent years, then something in the ballpark of 5 years, $125 million, is achievable and more palatable for the Bulls to absorb on their payroll. We’ll find out soon enough, though, what Giddy’s contract is going to look like come July. I would love to hear what you guys think, though. You let me know in the comments. As always, be sure to subscribe and I will see you in the next one.

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Discussing the latest on Josh Giddey’s impending free agency and what his fair market value should be.

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