Do The Pacers Actually Have Chance Against The Thunder?

Do The Pacers Actually Have Chance Against The Thunder?

So, here we are, the 2025 NBA Finals with a matchup that everybody expected coming into the season, the Indiana Pacers versus the OKC Thunder. The Thunder being a team that a lot of people expected to be here at the start of the season, but the Indiana Pacers being here is definitely a surprise as coming into the year, the three main teams that a lot of people were expecting to be the main contenders were the OKC Thunder, the Boston Celtics, and the Cleveland Cavaliers. But even though the Pacers have somewhat overachieved this playoffs, this is by no means a fluke run at all. And while I do think that OKC will ultimately win this series, the Pacers are not going to be pushovers. And there actually can be a lot of different things to look at as we prepare for this matchup. So, let’s go into it. Starting off is the Thunder’s main strength and what has been their main calling card all season, which has been their defense. Not only did the Thunder have the best defense in the league this season, they were historically great, being just over seven points better than league average. And I feel like this is going to be the main hurdle that’s going to be an issue for this Pacers team. A big factor that has led to the Pacers success has been the creation and the overall ability of Tyresese Hallebertton, especially in pick and roll. The Pacers would go at the favorable matchup and then they would force the defense to make a decision. In the Eastern Conference Finals, it has been mainly Mitchell Robinson, Carl Anthony Towns, and Jaylen Brunson that Tyrese has mainly been trying to get switches on. But with this OKC Thunder team, there really is no favorable matchup for him to be going at. Almost everybody that is going to be on the floor for the Thunder is able to play switch defense. Add this to the fact that someone like Alex Caruso is going to be impossible to screen anyway. I’m curious to see how much pick and roll the Pacers are actually going to run. That being said, I do feel like if the Thunder are playing Isaiah Hardenstein heavy minutes, this is going to be a huge test for Miles Turner. The Thunder bigs and Isaiah Hardenstein and Chad Homegrren were able to spend a lot more time in the paint in the conference finals against the T-Wolves because Rudy Goar is a non-factor offensively. And while Julius Randall does shoot threes, he mainly operates in the mid-range. And so the Thunder were able to play two bigs a lot more in the T-Wolves series. And it was difficult for the T-Wolves to get anything going inside the three-point line. But in the Nuggets series, having Jokic on the perimeter really changed things. And it was something that Isaiah Hardenstein struggled with at times. And I feel that the speed of Tyrese is definitely going to play a factor in these ball screens because it’s going to force the Thunder defense to make a decision. In the Nuggets series, iHeart was really struggling to get back to Joic in these Murray Gordon Joic threeman games. Jamal would be able to get the first step on the screen. Joic would flare out and Aaron Gordon would set the occasional flare screen. And this led to open threes for Nicole Joic nearly the entire series. And so having someone like Miles Turner in this spot, who not only I feel is a more consistent three-point shooter, but one that also gets his shot off quicker, I feel like this could be an even bigger issue to look at going forward. Of all of their playoff matchups so far, the Thunder struggled the absolute most with the Nuggets, mainly because of their ability to spread the floor. and Indiana is no different. So, a lot of the help defense that they were able to play against Minnesota is no longer going to be viable against this Pacers team. And so, I’m also curious to see how many Pascal Seakum postups the Pacers are going to get into because I do feel that while the Thunder are a switchheavy team and have a bunch of switchable defenders at every position, Pascal Seakum is still going to be able to take advantage of some of these matchups. And with all the shooting on the floor, the Thunder are going to have to be very mindful of where exactly the help is coming from. Another key factor coming into the series is going to be the Pacers transition offense. The Thunder have somewhat struggled at some points in this playoffs when it comes to transition defense, and Indiana is easily the best transition team in the league. And so, it’s going to be key for them to get as many transition opportunities as possible before the Thunder are able to set up their halfcourt defense. How many times they are actually able to get out in transition is tough to say because the Thunder have also been really good at taking care of the ball the entire season as well as Indiana. And so to me, this is going to be a series that heavily favors the team that’s able to force more turnovers. Of course, that is just a factor in any normal game, but even more so in this series because of the ball security of both of these two teams who were number one and number three in the league in least amount of turnovers per game. All that being said, the Thunder’s main advantage or other main advantage in this series, which I ultimately think is going to be the Pacers Achilles heel, is the isolation scoring, especially from SGA. SGA being the best isolation player in the league right now is going to be absolutely hell for the Pacers who statistically have been the worst team in the entire playoffs at defending isolation plays. Teams are shooting 55% on isolation field goals against the Pacers this playoffs and they are giving up 1.24 points per possession on isolation plays. For reference, the Minnesota Timberwolves, who the Thunder just played, gave up 911 points per possession in the playoffs on isolation and team shot 37% on those plays. Shay Gilas Alexander averaged 30 points against that team. The Indiana Pacers have been abysmal defending ISOs. Their 1.24 24 points per possession and 55% field goal percentage on these plays puts them in a percentile that I didn’t even know could be possible for a playoff team. These stats put them in the 0ero percentile in isolation defense. This is going to be the biggest issue for the Pacers in this series. And earlier we talked about how there’s really no favorable matchup for Tyrese to go at on the Thunder. This is not going to be the case with SGA. This is likely going to leave guys like Tyrese, TJ McConnell, and even Andrew Nemhard to an extent in a difficult spot. While TJ and Nemhard tend to be very physical defenders, I don’t trust them to consistently get a good contest on a lot of these mid-ranges that SGA is going to be shooting, the Indiana Pacers, I don’t think really have any answers to slow down SGA consistently. It’s going to be another series of the team playing the numbers on the Thunder shooters, which has given OKC problems at times as playoffs. guys like Lou Dort and JDub, while they have had their moments this playoffs, they’ve also been fairly inconsistent at times, especially Lou Dort. And so I feel like that’s one of the main things to keep in mind with OKC is the isolation plays that SGA and JDub are going to be getting and also the kickouts that they are going to be getting as a result of these. Last, but certainly not least, which is a factor that is going to greatly affect Indiana, is going to be the level of physicality that OKC is going to be allowed to play with and how exactly that relates to Tyrese Hallebertton. Throughout the Knicks series, and more specifically in game five, a big adjustment that the Knicks tried to make was getting the ball out of hands as much as possible and playing physical offball defense on him whenever he didn’t have the ball to prevent him from getting it back. We saw some of this I believe in the third quarter where male here is literally just grabbing Tyrese off ball to prevent any potential pass and the OKC Thunder are known for playing teams very physical especially Lou Dort and so I feel like this is going to be something that we see a lot of in the finals. Now how far they actually let the Thunder go is yet to be seen but this to me doesn’t seem like it’s going to be something that’s going to be called. The Rockets were doing this with Steph and now the Knicks are doing this with Hie. So, I feel like if they did start calling this now, I feel like that would be more inconsistent. But, of course, we won’t know until the series starts. Overall, I feel like the Thunder are going to win this series pretty convincingly in terms of the actual record at the end of the series. But, I do feel that the games themselves are going to be closer than people expect. Ultimately, I personally have the Thunder winning in either five or six, but I do think that it’s going to be a pretty hard-fought series on both sides. But with all that being said, I hope you guys enjoyed this video. Subscribe if you’re new. Hit the bell to be notified when I upload. Comment down below what you want to see next. And as always, I’ll see you guys in the next one.

Today is a preview of the 2025 NBA Finals between the OKC Thunder and the Indiana Pacers. If you guys enjoyed this video, be sure to hit the like button and slap the sub button with your nose (also the bell).

Klay Thompson Documentary: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Zkamb8Xkoc

Warriors Redemption Documentary: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJ6IYfW8DX0

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