Sacramento Kings | Game Theory Offseason Preview

Sacramento Kings | Game Theory Offseason Preview

Hello and welcome to the Game Theory podcast offseason preview series. I’m your host Sam Vacini. Today Bryce Simon is going to join me and we’re going to talk about the Sacramento Kings, a team in real transition following the departure of De’arren Fox and their general manager Monty McNair. But first, go hit the subscribe button over on the Game Theory YouTube channel. Over 37,000 of you have hit that button. We appreciate you guys immensely. Go hit the subscribe button on your podcast feeds. All of these offseason previews also go up on the podcast feed as well. Thank you all for supporting the show. We really genuinely appreciate it. But Bryce, the Sacramento Kings, man, look, it’s hard. They got dealt a bad hand with the De’arren Fox thing. De’Arren forced his way kind of to San Antonio, meaning that they didn’t get the value for De’Arren that, you know, they maybe hoped that they could have gotten had it been a bit more of an open marketplace to try and trade for him, right? They’re also in a situation where frankly this is Chicago Bulls West right now. And Zack Lavine, Demar D Rozan, we’ve seen this combination with a non-defensive European big man before. It does not go well. It does not go well for anybody. you end up stuck in the 35 to 40 win zone for a while. I just I feel for Kings fans because this era of Kings basketball with the Aaron and Demanis was really fun and enjoyable and so cool to watch. That fan base is so engaged. I genuinely love seeing how excited they get to light the beam and like have a successful team and it just feels like things are going downhill. They sign Scott Perry to be their general manager. I mean, I’m sorry like how that happened so quickly. It just feels like the process was not great uh there by any stretch. Hopefully Scott Perry does as good of a job as is possible, but like I’ve got a lot of real concerns here on the direction that the Kings are headed at this point. Here’s what I hate about this team is I love so many of these individual players, Sam. Like I love Zack Lavine. I think he’s one of the more aesthetically pleasing players to watch. We talked about this with Shaden Sharp. Malik Monk is truly one of my top five just like personal favorite players to watch along with Tammani Kamara and Aaron Nesmith has become one of those guys. Demar D Rozan is so much fun in terms of the mid-range stuff. Keegan Murray, I even like have an appreciation for what Sabonis does offensively. Devin Carter was like a my guy and our guy in that draft. Keon Ellis, I like Jake Laavia. I know he’s like a free agent we have to talk about here, but I love these individual players, but I just I look at what’s on the screen right there and I’m like, none of them make sense together. Like, this roster doesn’t make sense. Nobody’s the number one option. Malik Monk is starting when he should be coming off the bench and winning six man of the year. I’ve been saying this for like 12 months or more. Keegan Murray keeps being asked to be the best defensive player on the team, which is destroying his offense and making him not look as good defensively as if he was guarding the number two option or something like that, where I think is where he should be. And it’s just like none of it makes sense, Sam. None of it makes sense. And the hard thing is now that we’ve just kind of been down the road of this with a lot of these players in terms of what their trade value is, right? Yeah. So, if you want to like move off of some of these guys, like we’ve been down the Zack Lavine road and that’s one that is it’s hard because he is like a score first shooting guard who is kind of a slow decision maker. He’s gotten better as a passer, I would argue, but like still isn’t quite there. He had an amazing year last year. And by the way, it was basically the same the moment that he got to Sacramento. Zack Lavine, like the numbers here are just hysterical. Do you know what he shot last year field goal percentage in Chicago? Uh 46 47 48 51.1. Do you know what his field goal percentage was in Sacramento? Uh what was it in Chicago? 51.1. Uh, I mean, I’m guessing it’s still over 50 then. 50. It was 51.1. He took 16.9 field goal attempts in Chicago. He took 16 field goal attempts in Sacramento. Do you know what he shot from three in Chicago last year? I know he was over 40% from three last year. So, I’ll say like 42.8. 44.6. Do you know what he shot from three last year in Sacramento? I’m going to play into the bit and I will say 44.6. He shot exactly 44.6 from three. 7.3 three-point attempts per game in Chicago. 7.2 three-point attempts per game in Sacramento. I’ve never seen that before where the numbers are literally the exact same. I just I just pulled it up. It is kind of funny to look at. That’s crazy. 24 points per game in Chicago, 22 points per game in Sacramento. He’s just the same guy and he’s a great player. Like I think Zack Lavine has somehow become like criminally underrated leaguewide, but the problem is that he has $96 million left on his contract and he’s under it’s a contract that’s underwater and he’s not a number one option. Like as good as those numbers are, like he’s getting paid close to what a number one option makes for teams and that’s not him. Yeah, he is a somewhere between like 30th to 40 40th best player in the league. Something like that. I think his defense has gotten better. Like he’s not a disaster on defense anymore. He is a multi-time all-star. He is still playing exceptionally high level basketball. It’s just that he’s getting paid a significant significant amount of money. And if you want to move off of that deal, it is very hard. Demard Rosen. Now, Demard Rozan has one year at 24.75 million left and then he has a little bit of money guaranteed the next year if I remember correctly. It’s not like the full 25.7. Uh it’s 10 million guaranteed essentially. Um look, it’s like 14 million if he’s, you know, if he makes Allar. No, he didn’t make Allar. Yeah, it it’s going to be basically like it could be 12 million if he somehow makes the All-Star game, but it’s probably 10 million guaranteed, right? That’s still not an insignificant amount to where like you want to cut him, but like you can probably stretch him if you wanted to at that point. Um, that’s still 3 million on the books for three years. You don’t really want to do that, but if a team really wanted space, like you could figure out a way to make it work with D Rozan, right? Yep. But he’s a hard fit is part of the issue that he sat on the marketplace for last summer so long. Like he was one of the last big free agents to sign last year. It’s because it’s not the easiest player to fit because it’s a very mid-range ccentric game. He does like to hold the ball a little bit. He has gotten better as a passer throughout the course of his career, but it’s one of those passing things where it’s kind of on his terms as opposed to it being like a thing where he’s flowing and the ball’s popping and moving all over the place, right? He’s kind of a tricky guy to fit in somewhere. So, if you’re looking to move him, hard to do. Damon Sabonis will have value if they want to move Sabonis. Like, no, no questions asked. And I would probably look to move Sabonus this summer if I was them. If I’m them, and this sucks for Kings fans, like I hate saying this, this is the time to bottom out. I think this is the time where you want to go get as many like high-end, high leverage draft picks as possible, probably by using the Sabonis asset because the West is just absolutely a joke. Luca Don stayed in the West. Cooper flag is coming west. Giannis, like the teams that have the best chance to do the Giannis deal, I would argue, are in the West. Obviously, the Warriors look much better. Kevin Durant is still here. We’ll see if that changes by the time uh the summer kicks off. The Memphis Grizzlies are like drastically better than the Kings. And like I’m not a 100% convinced that they make like the straight playoffs next year. It’s a really tricky spot for the Kings and I think it’s probably as shitty as this is to say the right time to bottom out for them. Yeah, it just doesn’t seem like a team that makes sense to go be competitive. And so then what is your other option? And to your point here, what what could stink is the return on the three guys that I think you probably definitely trade, right? Like I think if you’re going to bottom out, it’s definitely Lavine, it’s definitely Sabonis, definitely D. Rozen, you know, you could I think anybody else could stay on the roster. Um, after that, you know, um, like you could look to move Malik Monk, like depending on what the value was or whatever, but those those three guys at the top make the most sense to move. And then you keep Murray and Devin Carter and Keon Ellis. And again, I would keep Monk and, you know, just go there. But other than Sabonis, you know what? Unless you just find the right team that really needs that guy, right? Somebody might like D Rozan if he can fit in exactly right. Or if you’re a team that your number one player is still under rookie deal and so you can absorb Zack Lavine’s number to be your second option even though it’s first option money and then between the two of them like then maybe you get better value than what you would think. But yeah, I I think I’m with you and it does stink cuz we’re just a couple years away from, you know, a really exciting Kings team, you know, in the playoffs and making some noise around the NBA. Yeah. And look, this is just what the De’Aran Fox departure has, you know, wrought for them, right? And I I don’t know if I have a great spot for Lavine. Like, the Magic just financially can’t do this to me. Uh I mean, like, we’ve talked about the Pistons for a while. Like if the Pistons wanted to go for this, I guess I wouldn’t mind it, but like I don’t think you’re getting crazy value for Lavine there either. No, no. I mean, he he makes sense there. Like I I think he definitely depending on what you think about Ji and we don’t need to have that conversation on on this one. So, is there a thing is there a spot where you like Sabonis? Like a team that you think should give up real value to get to Sabonis? See, he’s one where as good as I think he is, I think he can also be difficult just because of his play style and how much the offense runs through him. So, um, do you know what the fun thing is? Like he’s making too much money to go to the Warriors, but like I would love to see the Warriors offense. That is a great name. That that’s that’s the name. Yep. there there’s just no way to do it because they’re find like you’d have to move like Jimmy Butler or something like that to do it. There’s just not a way to do it. But it it’s kind like to me that’s the kind of offense it has to be. Yeah. You know what I mean? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Is there a chance that like the Hornets just decide to go for this? Like if they’re going to move Mark Williams, which they tried to at the deadline, is there any way that you could do like contract accumulation in picks for Donis Sabonis? Um, I don’t know that I love that with with LaMelo and and and Sabonis as much. Yeah. I mean, look, I don’t I don’t I’m not a Look, I I think Sabonis is fairly overrated uh in terms of the way he impacts like wins and losses on the court. obviously like an incredible accumulator of stats and is a real offensive like playmaker and problem to deal with because of his ability to pass, because of his ability to like just put his shoulder into you and just be the biggest bully on the court at times. But I I just don’t think the defense is anywhere near good enough to make it work consistently, especially with the current iteration of guys on the perimeter that they have right now between Lavine Monk D. Rosen. Um Devin Carter and Keon Ellis are great defenders, but that that trio, Malik, uh Malik Monk, Zack Lavine, and Demard Rosen, like you just have no chance I think with Sabonis on the court. Do any of the other bad right now bad teams like that don’t have primary initiators like would they want to go down this path? Like you’re like Washington, Brooklyn, you like some of these teams already have bigs though, young bigs. Like do any of those teams like do you see them, hey, maybe this is our offensive hub and we build our young core around him, you know, initiating offense. Like does he make sense? Could Chicago do this, right? like Arturus Carnis, you know, guy that, you know, drafted, you know, played a role in drafting Nicole Yic, loves bigs like this that can, you know, play on the perimeter and be bullies and play like a European style of basketball. Like you could do V and Collins and picks for this and like they have so many expiring deals like V Collins, Herder and Picks does Sabonis easily. Yeah, they they That’s one that I wonder about like if if they would consider something along those lines. Yeah, I was just looking through some other teams and it’s that’s the thing with Sabonis like where he’s not a there are certain archetypes that where it’s just a little bit more difficult to always find the right fits as opposed to a two-way wing or like a stretch and rim protection big to me is just a lot easier to kind of slot into just about any team than this type of big with what he does where like the defense isn’t great and his best asset offensively is kind of running the offense through him and then so how much are you taking the ball out of other perimeter guys hands and so like it does make it every one of these guys has that right like Demar you already brought it up we’ve talked about it here with Sabonis Lavine isn’t as Lavine’s is more the contract more than anything but that’s why all three of them it’s like okay you can’t just name off 15 teams off the top of your head that’s like this slides in perfectly they absolutely would be in on this. Like the Raptors would be somewhat interesting to me, but like they just have so many dudes already. Like they were a team that just Yeah. in general popped into my head, but it’s like well then are you moving off like RJ and IQ to do it so that way you open up some ball on ball reps or you know like offensive usage? Well, like you’d have to move Purle in the deal probably. Oh yeah. Yeah, that’s true. That’s the reality. And then like Purle and Barrett, does that does that get to the money? It gets to the money for sure, but I mean like are they willing to add picks on top of that? I don’t I don’t know. Or maybe I don’t I don’t Here’s my problem. I don’t know what Demon Sabonis’ trade value is. Yeah, just to be completely honest. Like he’s a guy that I really struggle with. My guess is that it’s not particularly positive, but it will be positive. someone would be willing to do it. I just don’t know. Yeah. Like so for Toronto like Yeah. Could you could you get it with Purle and then throw like if you added needed to add like throw in some young you know a young guy because we’ve talked about like their their situation there. Do you give up the number nine pick plus Barrett and Hurdle for Deon Sabonis? Do I? Yes. No. I don’t either. I I don’t think I do either. Yeah. I I feel bad because I feel like we always end up negative on Sabonis, but yeah, like he’s he’s a genuinely like fun player to watch and like a really creative offensive mind in the way that he uses angles and, you know, can find different passing angles and the way that he can just put his shoulder into you and score at the rim is so impressive to me. It it is so hard to stop that little like mini left hand hook shot uh over his right shoulder, but you have to be able to defend. And the biggest problem for me on this team is okay, so let let’s go the other way. Let’s keep Sabonis if you’re the Kings, right? You have Devin Carter and Keon Ellis. Like you can build around that as your defensive duo that you need in front of Sabonis to make it work and Keegan Murray, right? Like you you can make a trio of those three work, but you can’t make that work offensively. Yeah. So, where does the offense come from? I think they’re hoping that it comes from like Lavine, Monk, and D. Rozan, but you need to find two-way players more than anything. Yeah. Like, they have to be able to do both. And maybe Devin Carter proves that he’s able to do both. I loved Devin coming into the draft last year. I still am a huge Devin Carter fan. But I think that this is a really difficult spot and I really worry about what they are able to kind of come up with here is just like a what is your long-term core? What what are you trying to actually accomplish if you’re the Kings? Yeah. Yeah. And it seems like they need to make a decision, like I say, because you don’t want to continue down this path of the Chicago Bulls West of just like, hey, we’re back in the playing game again. And here’s the problem. They might not be back in the playin. Like look at the Western Conference, Bryce. Maybe they will be if they stay healthy because other teams don’t stay healthy. that that was going to be my argument is like healthwise if they stay healthy a couple other teams always don’t end up healthy and they’re going to be better like they’re just going to be better than a couple teams. Um so I’m just going to read off a list, right? Yep. Okay. Oklahoma City, Denver, Minnesota. We think no chance they’re better than them, right? No. Correct. The Lakers, the Clippers, Golden State. No chance they’re better than them, right? No. Houston, Memphis, Dallas, San Antonio. Probably not. We won’t have them ahead of any of those teams. No. Like Dallas is Dallas has Cooper Flag coming in plus Anthony Davis plus like some depth and they’ll probably get a point guard as long Yeah. Assuming they get something in the back court. Sure. Yeah. So we we can say that, you know, they they might be a thing, but then they’re like competing with New Orleans who gets, you know, maybe a year of Zion Williamson full health, right? Uh then the Suns, like we don’t know what the Suns are doing with Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, right? The Portland Trailblazers, like we both like the Trailblazers a lot. Yeah. Yeah, they they have a chance to jump the Kings this year because they have a real identity based on defense and you know they have a ton of like vets and players that the Kings just like kind of don’t have right now. I I think what I struggle with is some of these teams were saying if we just lined up their rosters and and just like, you know, like they they’re not going to have the best player, but then when you start to get to like 2, three, four, five, it’s like, well, I actually like Keegan Murray better than this guy, and I actually like Keon Ellis better than this guy, and if they bring back Jake, I like Jake Larivia better than this guy. It’s just like like that’s why it’s hard for me is because if I just line them up based on talent, which is kind of what we’re doing in May and June, right, is just kind of like just looking at it on paper, it’s hard not to still think that they’re going to be better than some of these teams even though I know in my heart of hearts like it it just doesn’t make sense because I said it 15 minutes ago when we started. Yeah, it it’s hard. It’s it’s a really hard spot for the Kings. I think they need to find more than anything to me like this summer is about finding a direction and like committing to it and going for it. Maybe it is this Lavine Monk D Rozan Sabonis like Murray Fivesome and Devin Carter and Keon Ellis. You hope for a jump from them and you keep Loravia and that’s what you do and you try to be the seven seed or something like that, right? And then you just like maybe it’s easier to move Lavine and D Rozan next summer when they’re on one year like expiring deals kind of at that point. So maybe that is it. Maybe that’s the move. But I mean it’s just not it’s not something I’m excited about. That’s for sure. Yeah. I I mean you brought up something that’s a little more interesting to me is like maybe you build around Sabonis and you just make sure you go get two-way guys, right? like you, he’s kind of the hub of your offense and you just say, “Okay, if you can’t play both ends of the floor, you can’t play for the Sacramento Kings because we have to make up for it defensively and we have to have the guys that can knock down shots and and those things in terms of spacing offensively and you only move Lavine and D Rozan and you keep Monk, you keep Murray like you said. Maybe Carter figures that out.” Um feel like Keon would he Yeah, like Keon shot 43% from three this year. I love Keon Ellis. Um and you kind of build it out from there and you don’t move all three of them and just like completely tank. Yeah. So just mechanically this summer, 27.5 million from the first apron, 40 million away from the second apron, 19 million away from the luxury tax. uh even if they do retain Jake Laravia who the most that they can pay for him is up to 5.3 million dollars because Memphis declined his fourthyear team option on his rookie scale deal and thus uh when the Kings acquired him they became uh unfortunately stuck with that situation on their books. We’ll talk about Lavia maybe in a minute uh whenever we get there. I do think there are a couple other more important things to talk about than him. The Keegan Murray extension is number one to me. Uh do you have a number for Keegan Murray that makes sense to you? Um he has been available. I do think he’s been good defensively. I blame like the scoring going down and the three-point percentage going down on the defensive role. That’s more than what it should be. I don’t know. Like this seems like another like 18 to 22 type of number to me, right? Like that that’s where I that’s where I would feel like with Keegan right now. I think it’s more than that. Okay. I think it’s probably like 25 or so if he was willing to. So I would guarantee that they say give me the Trey Murphy number which was 27 if memory serves somewhere in that ballpark. If I’m the Kings, I probably want to do a little bit less than that personally. But like Trey Murphy prior to this year, right, came in right around the same age as Keegan Murray, right? um a little bit older. He averaged 14.5 and 14.8 in the previous two seasons. You look at the total numbers of those two seasons. Obviously shot it better from three, but is not as good defensively, I would argue, is what Keegan Murray is. I would agree. Like 84% from the line, 85% from the line, 39% from three, 46 40 I think it’s like 46% overall. not a great passer much like Keegan was. And again, this is coming into the season. Keegan over the last two years right around 14 points per game, 13.5 points per game, 13.8. Better rebounder at 6.1. Same number of assists. 45 35 83. Like I think the number is probably in the 25 to$27 million range for Keegan Murray. You’re right. I I I always go under. Like it’s still a two-way wing in the NBA. So that that that makes sense to for it to be if they ask for 30, I wouldn’t be stunned. Like I it would be completely within priorities rights to ask for 30. I think the number is probably 27ish. I think it’s right around the Trey Murphy number is what I would say is like the fair market value for everybody to get a deal done. Yeah. I I think it it was just a little bit of a down year for him. And so like that’s that’s what makes me a little bit I I also wasn’t like And to be clear, I don’t think either of us think that that’s Keegan’s fault is the problem. So that’s true. Like and that’s where I probably need to put that back into the number where I can’t say I don’t think it’s Keegan’s fault and then take a few million off his contract because he didn’t have a great year offensively, right? Like that’s that’s not fair to do. So, um, yeah, I think if you look from deadline day onward last year or like right around like let’s say the start of February, right, he averaged 12.8 points, 45, 37, 87. It was more the start of the year that was like relatively inefficient as all of the crazy was going on with like De’Aran and the team struggled out of the gates and things like that. Um, he just did not shoot it super well to start the year either for whatever reason. I think he’s going to shoot it. Like that’s the thing I’m probably just not worried about at all with Keegan. Um, you know, it’s it’s been like semi inconsistent. It’s come and gone each of the last two years at times. But as he gets older and like continues to grow into his frame and continues to just iron out the shot going from 23 and 24 up to, you know, 25 to 28 years old, I think he’s going to be fine as a shooter. Yeah, you you can get me to 25. I I would and I know you were saying like where priority should start. Like I I don’t think I would be a 30 for Keegan Murray right now. Um yeah, maybe I think again to me the number is like, hey, let’s just do the Trey Murphy deal at 27. Everybody goes home happy. Sure. Like that feels fair to me. The next one is Keon Ellis. Keon Ellis uh has one of those situations where they can pick up his team option or they can extend him if they want to or they can pick up the team option and extend him off of the team option uh for the season after that. It’s Keon is another one that’s really hard. Like if you just told me that this team that has not shown consistently, let’s say that they value him as much as I think and you think that they should, right? Like if they just said, “Hey, we’re not, you know, we’re just going to pick up the team option and make you play it out.” That’d be like somewhat crazy because he would be in his fourth year and thus would be an unrestricted free agent, I believe. Uh if they do play it that way. But I don’t know, man. Like up until the last portion of last season, it just felt like to me they just never have quite valued like his defense and the way he plays tough on that end and can shoot a little bit in the way that you know you and I feel like he should be valued consistently. Yeah. I mean, the argument I always made and I thought it would be for both of them was Keon Keon in the starting lineup so he can take those defensive matchups and then now Keegan slots in guarding this other team’s second best defensive player and I actually think you get more out of Keegan offensively as well. So yeah, I I think Keon Ellis is good in terms of what he does defensively and then again like you brought up ability to knock down shots and it’s not going to be on like crazy volume. He’s he’s not going to be a huge scorer, but dude, I will say this, like from January 1st onward last year, Keon Ellis averaged 9 and a half points, three rebounds, 1.7 steals, 1.8 assists, shooting 504484. Yeah. And did take almost five threes a game in 27 minutes. Like they did really start to play him after that point. really like once Mike it feels like more than anything it was probably a Mike Brown problem honestly where like Mike Brown just like wasn’t playing him for whatever reason consistently when Mike Brown left like it felt like they started to play him more I would guess that they just extend him like that would be my read on this is what whatever it is they probably just extend him and keep it going with Keon Ellis to me he it’s weird Keon he’s the one that like unlocks this roster just making more sense because then the other thing he does is he meet he moves Malik to the six-man role, which I think Malik is awesome for. And so, like, again, if they are going to kind of run this back, this has to be what happens. Like, Keon has to start. Malik has to be sixman of the year, and Keegan’s offense is going to grow because of it. It’s just like, yes, extend good basketball players that play both ends of the floor. Makes sense. I think that’s dead on. I think that is uh so right. I would absolutely extend Keon. I mean, I’m I’m probably saying like, you know, 12 million, 14 million is probably the number like in that ballpark. Less than what we said Tammani Kamaro would be, but you know, a little bit. It has to be over 10 for sure. I would say 12 to 14 feels right for him. Yeah, I probably would have said 10 to 12. So, yeah, we’re in the same range. Yeah, let’s let’s say 12. Let’s say, you know, three or four years, right, for 12 million a year. o only if they’re going to prioritize him. Like you said though, like if you’re not going to like play him the minutes and start him and make this thing make sense. And the nice thing with him is even if you don’t rebuild it, like or excuse me, even if you do rebuild, he still makes sense. Like he makes sense on any roster no matter what. And so like that contract is going to stay fine. But as long as you’re going to play him 28 to 30 30 minutes a night like like if you’re going to play him 22 minutes and in and out of the starting lineup and we don’t know then like well the trade him to somebody that’s going to value him then. So Jake Loravia what his situation 5.3 million is the most they can pay him per season with I believe they can give him like if he signed like a two-year deal or something I believe they can give him a raise. Yeah. On top of that, like at 8%. Yeah. If I am him, look, I’m absolutely testing the market, right? I’m seeing what’s out there. He was really valuable in terms of his versatility defensively. I think we saw that when Memphis, you know, kind of fell off of the cliff in terms of some of their bench units whenever he departed. And Brandon Clark got hurt. It wasn’t just Jake, but like Jake showed some real value, I think, both in Sacramento and in Memphis this year. Yeah. There is some pretty real value to him keeping his bird rights. I think in terms of like flexibility with signing trades like the next summer if it was like a 2year 11 million deal or whatever it would be with a player option on the second year. I think that there is some legitimacy that you can say to where that kind of works for everybody, but if I’m him, I’m seeing if I can get 9 million a year from somebody for sure. And I think there is a chance that like somebody would give him 9 million a year. He’s very val like he is a really good bench player. Yeah. I mean, it’s another guy where we talked about. I think Jake Loravia is better defensively than what like non I would assume Grizzlies fans understand this. I would assume Kings fans saw this and whatever it was 30 games that he played for them. Um, but you know, like fans that aren’t I guess it was only 19 games. Sorry. The other fans of teams that aren’t watching them night in and night out may not realize like this is this is a real defender and it’s a little bit different than like Keon Ellis and Devin Carter obviously cuz he’s got there’s a lot more size there and and you know to me with Jake it always comes down to the jump shot, right? like he can pass the ball. He’s going to fit into an offensive scheme that way. He’s going to move. He’s going to rebound. You know, this year he made what in totality he was a 42% three-point shooter on really low volume. He was 34% on four and a half attempts the year before in 35 games. If he knocks down shots, he’s a legit two-way, like real real valuable piece. And again, that’s a player you want to keep around, especially on the number. you know, and it’s the Kings can’t do anything else, you know, like that’s the thing with them. It from their perspective, I feel like it’s an quote unquote easy negotiation in terms of like we’re hamstrung here with what we can offer you. So then it just comes down to if there’s a better offer on the market for him. Like if you’re the Pistons and you do end up opening like room, right, and you have your room exception available, like that’s a that’s a guy that you go get to me. Yeah. And you say like, “Okay, let’s give him what is it? It’s 8.8 eight to start, right? Sure. So, just give him three years and even if you want to do a team option on the third year, you know, he’s getting 19 million guaranteed over the next two years and then like you have some flexibility to be able to build some things in, right? I mean, he he’s the second name like on my Piston specific thing or whatever. He’s my like I have I have Nikil Alexander Walker like I just love Knob like him and him and Jake are right there together. Um, so yes, 100%. And yeah, Jake is a player that fits a lot of teams though because he’s a bigger wing forward that can handle the ball, that can pass, that understands the game, that rebounds, that plays def. And he’s only 23. He’s only 23. Yeah. And he he was like in Memphis in a weird situation because that team has so many good players because they draft so well and all of that that it’s like what does it look like when he gets consistent minutes? Let’s say he goes to Detroit and it’s like, “Hey, you’re in our eightman, sevenman rotation. You’re going to play all of these minutes, even if it’s off the bench, but you’re consistently getting 20 minutes a night for 82 games. Who knows what his game looks like in that situation?” Yeah, I agree. I I I do. Uh, look, I think there is a case to him keeping his bird rights and like opening up flexibility in terms of signing trades. I wonder if he does just get more money than what we’re thinking though too because he is 23 years old. He averaged 74 and three last year while being versatile defensively. That’s kind of hard to find. Like that’s actually a difficult player to find if he ever ups the three-point volume. It’s actually an exceptionally difficult player to find if he ever ups the three-point volume, especially for like a low cost on the free agency market. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, so I was just like look in Memphis, he got pretty consistent minutes to start the season the first 30 games or so of the year and he averaged 953 and a half doesn’t turn the ball over one and a half stocks and shot 54471. You know, that’s what I I just I I think it looks really good if he ends up in a situation where it’s like consistent minutes night in and night out. So, um, and like you said, and then if the three-point shooting and volume is like real, I mean, that’s a really good player. So, to me, for him, there’s like a threshold, right? I would say that if he gets 8 million or more from a team, he should go to that team. If it’s like seven and a half to seven, knowing that like the Kings will probably play him like a decent amount like they need him. Yep. I might go on like a oneplus one for 5.3 million because of the bird right situation and the flexibility because of the bird rights and like creating flexibility the next summer and just knowing like hey like you’re probably going to get like real playing time here. Yep. Yeah. I I I think that tracks for me as well in terms of what we could see. If if he stays in Sacramento, it probably means those level of offers weren’t on the table and if he gets some Yeah, I think eight plus would be hard to turn down. Um especially on a multi-year deal. I think that’s right. Uh okay. I mean, like mid-level guys, like again, I think you’re looking they they can do Lavia and use their full mid-level. I think you’re looking at, you know, any number of names that I feel like we’ve talked about a decent amount throughout the time that we’ve done this uh and done these like previews. I mean, like, is there anybody that like particularly tracks to me? like not not particularly honestly. Like a lot of the guys this year in free agency are guards uh or like shot creators or you know offense first bigs like Nas Reed or something like that. Like it’s just like if they get Nas Reed like cool go do it I guess. But you’re not getting him for the mid level I don’t think. I mean I mean the thing is your your rotation is somewhat filled out unless you make these big moves that we talked about at the top right like you have that starting lineup there um for those you know Lavine like I’ll go Lavine Ellis D Rozan Murray Sabonis well now off the bench you have Devin Carter Malik Monk in our situation Jake Lorravia you have Valenunis like maybe like another forward maybe a center you know to take up a Santiel Alama like could be fun. That could be interesting. Um but like again if we’re saying like hey you have to be able to defend to play around dear demon Sabonis like that doesn’t really work. So yeah like I’m almost like disincclined to talk about free agents with the Kings just because a lot of them are more offensively inclined for a team that has a lot of the offensively inclined guys. I was say like Merryill’s are one of our favorite names to bring up for kind of every team, you know. I was been there in Sacramento already. Yeah, they they they cut him at one point, which I’m sure that there are some regrets about. I mean, I was just trying to look at like the bigs, you know, like is there again like do you feel like you need to bring in a big to play behind Sabonis like if Valenunis isn’t ready? So, I mean, just the names I have here, you know, you have unrestricted free agents, Lopez, Horford, Don Sharp’s a restricted free agent. I mean, I guess Lyles is one of their own free agents and he plays as as a big for them. So, could just be retaining him. It makes sense, right? Yep. Um, yeah, look, Kings are just in a funky spot in the West right now. And I I think their key is finding a direction and sticking to it. Maybe it’s moving Sabonis, maybe it’s building around Sabonis and like completely altering the construction of your team around him. I’m open to a lot of different things with the Kings. But it’s got to be that, you know, we pick a direction either including Sabonis or not including Sabonis in committing to it. commit because we’ve seen what it looks like if you don’t have defenders around Sabonis. It’s not going to work. Yep. If you’re gonna keep him, go in three-way players. Like, that’s what it is. Yep. I agree. If you’re not going to keep him, great. Move him. But you you got to figure out the you got to figure out the direction here if you’re going to continue to try and do this in the way that you’re building it right now. I agree. you know, like what’s the mo the biggest pick a direction and I think he’s the name that that’s the most important. Like, are we building are we building it around him, with him, or are we not? Um, and I’m with you. If they want to do it with him, okay, let’s try it out, but then identify exactly what that looks like in terms of success with him and sell out on that fully, right? And not for like one year, like sell out on it for like or give it a real chance. and and you have some of those names on the roster. So, um you know, figure out how you can acquire more of those guys. I think that’s right. Bryce, tell the people where they can find your work. Tell the people what’s going on at Motor City Hoops on Twitter, on Blue Sky, have the Substack and the Pistons Pulse podcast. Otherwise, right here with Sam on the Game Theory podcast. Thank you. Please rate, subscribe, like, review, share, tell a friend. Um, if you’re listening to us, I assume that’s because you like listening to us or watching us or both. And bring somebody else along for the ride. Over 37,000 subscribers, I think, Sam, over on YouTube. I I find myself going, man, like the day we cross 50K is just going to be a a rejoice. Can we get that at summer league so Sam and I can celebrate together with GAC? But, um, no, thank you for everybody. My like lofty goal is hope hoping to do that by the draft. It’s so aggressive, but like right it’s like right around the growth trajectory that we’ve been on, you know, over the last few months. Go hit the subscribe button. It’d be amazing if you can help us. Uh support the show. Listen, like Bryce said, tell a friend. Like, you know, we really love doing this. It’s so so fun. Go to the athletic. Keep me employed over there. We will be back uh tomorrow with another offseason preview. Until next time, we’ll talk soon. Bye.

In this Game Theory offseason preview, Sam Vecenie is joined by Bryce Simon discuss the future of the Sacramento Kings

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Sam Vecenie, a Senior NBA Writer at The Athletic, talks all about basketball. From the NBA, to the NBA Draft, to college hoops and even some high school, Vecenie has you covered in this show.