Miami Heat offseason: 8th best outlook in the East? | Five on the Floor

Miami Heat offseason: 8th best outlook in the East? | Five on the Floor

Welcome to the latest episode of five on the floor on the five reason sports network. Thanks for your favorite podcast app on Apple, Apple Podcast on Android, Spotify or the Five Reasons YouTube channel. Recommending Spotify for now. Apple podcast been a little bit slow. So you can stream us there while we’re waiting for that to get corrected. Also check out Off the Floor. That’s our Discord server. I tell you about this every time. Links right there in the description. You click on it, you pay the $299 a month. You avoid the Apple upcharge. 10 different channels. We will have an NBA finals channel for people who just want to chat about that this week, but also you we adjust these all the time. We also got a draft channel, got a transactions channel, got a music culture channel. Like literally, this is a one-stop shop. Get off of Twitter just for a little bit. We we we go there so you don’t have to. We take everything from there, we put it here, and then you can avoid all of the other stuff, all the political infighting. You don’t need that. Just go to Off the Floor. $2.99 per month. This is your heat retreat. That’s what I’m going to start calling it. The most heat anywhere. All right. And now today’s episode. [Music] Mercy luxurious heat nation. Yeah. Mercy down the [ __ ] Five on the floor. Drive for my dogs. Wait. Here’s a thing. You can check the score. Hustle hard, couple stars. [Music] Got our own van. Y’all seen the block stop one hand and we trust the guts. Y’all can hang it up. Welcome to five on the floor, a daily insider show on the Miami Heat and the NBA featuring Ethan Skolnick, Greg Sander, Alex Toledo, Brady Hawk, and others from the Five Reason Sports Network. Also, make sure to subscribe to Off the Floor for the most heat anywhere. Welcome to Five on the Floor and today’s floor plan. I wasn’t expecting that to come back. Uh I’m Ethan Skull. You can follow me at EJ Skull. Get a five reason sports. I got Greg Savander. You can follow me at Greg Sander. When I say we’ve been putting up a lot of episodes lately, we’ve been putting up a lot of episodes. Like I put myself in a podcast sweat sweat shop. So, just been recording with everybody of late on the NBA Finals episode with Brady Hawk. Brought in Brian Gelzyler from SiriusXMNBA to talk about Kevin Durant. He thinks Durant’s gonna end up in Miami, so Heat fans probably want to listen to that. Uh, we actually even did an episode about Trey Murphy because there’s been some conversation about that. So, lots of episodes going up. I got one planned with Shawn, one planned with Brian. Uh, Alex is going to jump in here with Greg here pretty soon. But today, Greg and I are going to talk about something that Zach Low said because um you know, I’m I’m pretty clear on this, Greg. Like, I think there’s a few people who are above the rest in terms of covering in the NBA, and Zach Low is one of them. He’s no longer with ESPN because they decided that they wanted to pay Kendrick Perkins. Just leave it at that. And so, he’s now with the Ringer. And Zach has had some thoughts on the Heat over the years. And so we listen and he knows he knows that he’s going to get called on this because in 2019 he said that the Heat have the bleakest outlook in the league and then they acquired Jimmy Butler and they went to the finals. So he acknowledged that. He says he doesn’t want to distrust their management again because he was so wrong the last time. I do know that there’s respect for him inside the Heatfront office. And so he has them and I don’t even know where this came from, but it was aggregated and I checked it out. He said it uh that he thinks the Heat have the eighth best outlook of the 15 teams in the East, which would put them about where they’ve been lately, squarely in the middle, although this year they were a little below middle. And so Greg, I just want to say before we get into sort of a deep dive on this, and I don’t I’ll be honest, I don’t know who he has first, second, third, or fourth, although I can probably guess. I what we’re going to get into today is like where they are compared to where they’ve been in past years and we’ve seen them pull Houdini before and is a Houdini act really required this time around and if Zach has them eighth instead of say last middle of the league instead of bottom of the league then maybe it’s not. But your view on just top of your head saying that they’re kind of in the middle of the pack in the in the East, not where they were performance-wise this year, but where they may be going forward. Is that fair? I think it’s pretty fair. And I think so. There’s a couple things happening here on a national scale. Um, and we’ll use Zack Low as part of the pulse of the national scale, even though he doesn’t get the national voice that he deserves at this moment. Um, it sounds like we’re we’re uh backing him up with lots of gripes at the beginning of this episode, but I digress. There’s a couple things happening, Ethan. One is the national media finally is like at the point where they are hesitant to bet against the Heat to figure stuff out. And so, that’s a new development. You don’t hear the doom and gloom from as many people. There’s still a few out there. um the guy who does the show with Eddie Johnson. Uh he’s one of the doom and gloom guys out there, whatever his name is now. Um Justin Justin Terminal, something like that. There’s there’s a few others. I won’t go into them, but a lot of people have backed off the heater going to fall apart narrative because they’ve seen the way that this has operated again and again. So, that’s something to take from this. But also, I think that this is a tale of um and people are going to hate this, but this is really the reality and just the way the money works out. This is a situation where this summer going into the off season with what they have, the draft picks going forward with the draft picks they still owe, um their draft situation going into this, the tax or the cap situation and how far they away they are from the tax. it’s that this summer they may need to pull a cat like a what you hat out of the hat like crazy move to really change their trajectory but it changes a lot going forward and I’m going to save that for when we talk about kind of what the future could look like. So I think it’s fair heading into this off season I think that there’s ways that the Heat could probably catapult themselves up that list pretty quickly. We saw how wide open the East is. That’s the other thing that I think this is very um each person is going to have their own viewpoint on how the East stacks up. We’re watching the fourth seated Indiana Pacers who haven’t been in the finals in 25 years make the the um the finals not paying the luxury tax. So I don’t know that you can really predict it, but it’s fair for now. Yeah, I think it’s fair and I think some of I think some of it is based on reputation or else he would probably have them lower. Uh, so I think that’s kind of just for this off seasonason, just this offseason. I think you’re right as you go forward here and it’ll get a little easier. And I think the fact that they didn’t resign Jimmy Butler to an enormous extension is going to ultimately help them dig out and get back to a place of more par with some of these other teams. But I want to be clear on one thing, okay? They are not going to get to parody with some of these teams. There’s no way. And I just did an episode with Brady, which we just recorded, like with OKC. Like, nobody’s getting to parody with OKC. Like, OKC would have to f this up now. Like, seriously. Like, in a in a way that they did, but even worse when they decided not to keep Harden over $3 million like and and didn’t keep the Durant West Harden team together because they are so set up, okay? And the the only things that could really derail them are poor decisions or second apron restrictions because they’re going to have to pay all of these guys. And so PRI is going to have to be somewhat, you know, nimble in terms of avoiding this because this is that is an organization that hasn’t typically paid a ton of tax although they have paid some. So there there’s going to be some some gymnastics that they have to do, but the gymnastics they’re doing like they they they have safety nets under all of you know under everything. Okay. First class cap gymnastics, right? It’s first world problems for them, right? Yeah. It’s a very first world problem. Okay. So, so that’s a whole different deal. There there are other organizations like say Utah that are not quite I saw a just hired his son basically to run it. Um they’re not quite as well. They have a ton of picks but it’s also Utah which we can say well it’s OKC but they’re not as far along. They don’t have the SGA type player. Lori Markin is not that. And so they’re not quite as well positioned, but they’re well positioned. But I I want to I want to go over to the East here for a second because you mentioned Indiana and there’s a lot of teams that are kind of fluid right now and like you look at for instance Boston, okay, and I don’t know if he had Boston above or beyond or past Miami, but I mean whatever we think of Jason Tatum, he’s an all-star. He’s not going to play next year. So that changes their timeline here. And also they were already looking potentially to move off of new ownership, potentially looking to move off of maybe Drew, maybe Chris Chops. So that creates a different situation. Cleveland is well positioned capwise or tax-wise, but now it looks like they may make some personnel changes that could change the mix because there’s been discussion of them trading Allen or McGarland before, but now it seems more serious, right? And and then and then Greg, you mentioned the other the two teams that were just in the finals of the East. The Knicks are well positioned. Um they are like Brunson taking less money was huge for them, but they also gutted their draft pick a lotment for Muel Bridges and they cannot re they not going to recoup even half of that. This is the Ethan to your point. They’re well positioned that they made the conference finals, but they’re not gonna get, I don’t think, anyway, the chance to really dramatically change what they have together. And I think that, you know what, they have a good team. Um, but yeah, I’m kind of with you there as well. And then you look at Indiana, which is built out of the middle, has not paid tax, has Hallebertton signed, has Seakkum signed, has a slew of good young players, some of which are not even really playing a lot right now, like Matan may be available in a trade, Drace Walker, who’s not going to play the first couple games in the finals, but was a first round pick where they have some flexibility. But then, you know, then you’re talking about Detroit, um, and Orlando, who are the two sort of younish teams in there. They’ve taken a long time to build with these lottery picks. Detroit probably, I think, has maybe the best player in Kade, although you can argue for Paulo. Also, um, you got Fron on one side. You have a lot of really interesting young players in Detroit. And both of those teams look like they’re going to try to pivot and they have enough to work with to move forward. And then there’s a couple of wild cards. Milwaukee obviously going the other way, but Toronto may be going back on the way up. Messiah has has cleaned things out again and now apparently they’re going to make a big splash. We’ve heard this before about him. He’s really only done it for Kawaii, but he did get Ingram and now there’s talk about Giannis for him. But I I guess overall as I look at it, the draft pick stashes are really in the West. They’re not really in the East. And and I think that and the lack of superstars. Now Cade may become one. Paulo may become one. But the lack of superstars embi Philadelphia mess in Philly. Is Embiid going to play? There is I I think we have to again put context on this where I would probably put the Heat in the bottom third in the entire league, but I think in terms of their asset situation, their flexibility this this offseason, but Greg, comparing it just to the East and it’s in the middle and then you add to the fact it’s an experienced front office that typically and I I’ll argue with the fans on this has known what it’s doing. I don’t think they’re in horrible position. I don’t. No. And and this is the other part of this that I think just it it’s uncomfortable because everybody wants the the big move to happen and if it happens that’ll be great, but I’ve tried to exercise as much caution and persist with everybody to just um keep your expectations in check for this particular offseason. like there are ways forward for this team um that I think are worth talking about. Like really beyond Bam’s two guaranteed years, they don’t have anything locked up long term with their salary. They have a chance, not this summer, but the next summer to get in upwards of 30 to 40, maybe even a little bit more than $40 million of cap space. I don’t know that they’re going to go shopping for free agents, but it can it can allow them to do other things. And so it may be a situation where when you look in the East and there’s so much parody and the teams that made the conference finals this year, I mean, I’m I’m seeing social media reaction where New York is like, “What are we going to do? Cat can’t play the five. We have to make changes.” Like, you know, teams get existential when they lose. Who knows who will be healthy at what time? The Heat are gonna take that as a chance to try to capitalize, stay competitive in the conference, but I just don’t think it necessarily means a big swing is coming with that competitive year because they will be much well placed the following off season to do things. Um, and I just think that that’s a reality that we have to kind of exercise patience toward. Well, the sense I get, Greg, and then we’ll go to the break here and and kind of then project forward a little bit more. The sense I get is they’re not overwhelmed negatively by their current situation. Like they feel like they’ve come out of it a little bit, replenished the assets somewhat. They they would obviously prefer to have that first round pick back that they gave away for Rosier. Um that’s made things more complicated, but they they do have the protections on the picks now, which wouldn’t have been the case if they, you know, things had played out differently in terms of them making the playoffs. And they have young players they like. Now, we’ll have to see a how those young players fit in Miami and b what their value is around the league. We know that Hawk is hard to be as excited about him as it was a year ago. Uh Yovic, and we’ve talked about this, we’ll continue to do episodes on this. Is he worth 455? What what what are some of the numbers that people are talking about here? Okay. 455 was thrown out um by Sam Veni. They do a great show, Game Theory. Um, but they did four for 55 was what they thought, which is just a little bit below the mid-level exception. That sounds high to me, honestly. I think that they could maybe get Nico done for four years at less than that. And the other one we’re talking about, well, where obviously, and would he be included in a Durant trade if they end up going that direction? I don’t know that he’ll have to be. Um Brian Geler doesn’t and on his podcast doesn’t think he would have to be but we know that Ishbia is going to ask for for that or more depending on whether Minnesota used some of these other teams get involved in that but but also DaVon Mitchell who I know um Anthony Chang wrote an article speculating that or or quoting some speculating that uh he might get $14 million a year. I don’t know that that’s ultimately what’s going to happen. So we’ll see how that All right. We’ll talk more about this in a second. Before we do, want to mention a great sponsor of the Five Reason Sports Network, legal in the state of Florida, our official fantasy partner. We will have shows, Greg and I, Brady, Alex, we’re dragging them on them. Uh, NBA final shows this week. Also, Stanley Cup final shows, David Eversol and others as the Panthers are trying to repeat, trying to avoid what happened to the Heat in 2014 where they played the same team twice and the Spurs rolled them. I’m actually going to have Alex Bombgartner, our Panthers writer, on to talk about the similarities between this and that. So, he’s going to be on over the next couple of days. But prize picks, use the code five fib. Put down your five, get 50 to play right away. Players uh up or down. Player up to six together and across the sports spectrum. Again, legal in the state of Florida. So, go to priceix.com, use the code FIVE today. Okay. So, looking at this overall, um I I I think that again in the Eastern Conference, we’re waiting to see Okay. Is Milwaukee are they going to gut this thing now for a couple years? Trey Giannis, what is Philadelphia going to do with Paul George? Obviously, that’s a regrettable contract at this stage. Is Embiid coming back? Uh, and all of that. And I think the Heat are assessing this stuff, too, because again, there seems to be a clearer path. There is no LeBron in the conference, right? Whether he was on Miami or on Cleveland, where you just knew he was going to be in the finals every year. I don’t know. Boston felt like the team Sorry to I didn’t mean to sneak over you. Boston felt like the big roadblock in the conference, right? And now you have this gap year for them. And I think that that’s just an interesting thing. Not necessarily cuz I think the Heat look at that and say we can get all the way to the finals with this roster or what roster they’ll build this off season, provided they don’t pull a rabbit out of the hat via trade. But it’s more of that I think that the conference in general remains open and that leads itself to um remaining competitive because you’re not that you you can be within striking distance. Uh and you don’t know what Tatum’s going to look like immediately upon his return or what that roster will look like. So that was the big thing in the conference. It wasn’t the LeBron like a LeBron like factor to your point where you’ve got one player who nobody can get through. It felt like Boston was starting to get a strangle hold on things and now that’s loosened up. I mean hugely like this is to me it’s the biggest story of the postseason and it’s it’s you know it’s great. I mean, obviously, we’re going to talk about the champion and if it’s OKC, and I’ve said this on other podcasts, the best thing for the league might be the Thunder because if they lose, then Pie is going to be pressured to trade picks and other assets and go get Giannis, go get somebody else, go add KD, go something to get over the hump because this is going to flip on them because he’s done obviously a masterful job turning this thing around, although they had a couple of awful, awful, awful years, right, to to get this way. And this is that’s what the the Heat don’t want to do. And in OKC, you have to do this because you can’t get free agents to come unless you’re already built up to a certain level. You’re not going to get them to build your program, right? Paul George went there in a trade and he embraced it. Westbrook was drafted there, etc. But again, it’s hard to get free agents. But if they win, at least you know, okay, well, you kind of know what you’re dealing with. If they lose and they go get add Giannis to SGA and then we’re talking about like this is like a five to sevenyear dynasty. It may be anyway, but there’s more of a chance I think in that case. But again, Miami was not going to get into that kind of position anyway. You’re talking about the East and you’re saying look you’re right like we were looking at Boston. I mean, Tatum and Brown were signed and we knew that they would have to move off of maybe Holiday or Porzingis, but Brad Stevens has proven to be, you know, pretty good at this stuff and probably would have found other players. Payton Pritchards developed into six man of the year and and he probably would find others to play with them. The new ownership, um, you know, the old owner cashed in and the new ownership has money. They I think they will spend ultimately, but they were going to get a little bit leaner now. Now they’re going to get real lean. They’re going to get real lean. And that that is to be the biggest story. Like Cleveland collapsing in the playoffs like surprises no one. Okay, that that you knew with that roster that probably was going to happen. They look like those Hawks teams from years ago. I projected the Celtics go to the finals even with Cleveland being first in the conference. And now they’re not they’re not even a factor next year. Philadelphia, which was projected to be one of the top three or four teams in the conference, they’re not a factor this year. Milwaukee, which I thought would take a step back this year and I thought it could lead to Giannis leaving. One of the few things I’ve been right about, I didn’t expect Dame to obviously have the injury issues that he’s had. Although, I guess the Heat did because they were concerned about age and defense and contract, which is one of the reasons they didn’t go all in on him. They’re not a factor anymore. So, you’re talking about Boston, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, three of kind of the blue blue blood, you know, teams in the conference over recent years. No Cleveland can’t trust them, right? So if it’s Indiana and it’s New York and then it’s okay Orlando and Detroit, yes, progress, but that’s not a straight line up typically. I I don’t know. That’s why it’s I’m not going to sugarcoat the Heat’s situation. You wish they had more picks. I wish they didn’t have the Rosier deal, even if it’s the last year of the contract. Okay. I wish they had more talent on the roster. Wiggins contract at best now is neutral. DaVon’s not signed yet. Yoic, do an extension. It’s not perfect. I’m not going to argue that it’s perfect. And obviously, you know, the BAM contract, which is something I’m going to have you and Alex discuss. Have fun with that one. Um, you know, there’s some dispute about whether or not he’s a Max Max, even though I I obviously understand his value to the franchise. And then you got Tyler’s extension coming up, which is a tricky subject. So, all of these things are not ideal, but I also don’t think like they’re cooked at mostly because of the conference, Greg. the conference and the looming year of having flexibility to uh reshape the team with either cap space or trades. Their pick situation is clearing up and it just may require a gap year before they get to what will be still an open like completely wide openen conference in the east. And so it’s just a matter of kind of getting through this hurdle of this next season. And the thing to watch for that accelerates this all because I keep preaching that we may need to just think about next year ne so not the summer we’re about to embrace but the following summer is when the heat really reshaped this thing right they do have enough expiring contracts to make a deal work for a big salary marquee player. So if that pops up on the scene it could accelerate things. We’ll see if that happens. But for now, for me, um they could probably still remain pretty competitive in the East. They still uh you know, have their draft pick for next season and it is lottery protected in case the year goes sideways and you just kind of gear up for um an evaluation kind of bridge year. I mean, I I think people don’t love to hear that, but at this point, I think that that’s probably the the right move for the Heat. The prudent approach as we talk about not paying Jimmy when he is, you know, getting $50 million was it it may have even been more than that per year. Uh there at the end at the 37, 38 years old, that’s not going to age well. So, they’re they’re doing the right things to clean this up. It’s just may not happen as fast as fans want it to. Well, he’s actually he’s gonna be making 61 in the last year of that deal with the state. Just insane. I mean, Miami wouldn’t have paid that, but I think it would have been 58. But yeah, I mean, it’s just it’s it’s a lot of money. And again, that’s going to be their problem at that stage, but it didn’t have to be Miami’s problem. I I just I think the one push back you’re going to get on the gap year thing and I don’t which is why I don’t know if they’re going to go that direction is because like you mentioned this is a gap year for Boston and so if you’re looking at opportunity and we’re talking about likely a gap year for Philly likely a uh a rebuild may be coming in some form in Milwaukee. Cleveland is going to have transition to a new roster if they move Garland or Allen because I don’t know necessarily they’re going to get more talent. I think they’re going to try to get better fitting talent particularly uh off of Garland and his defense in the back court and put somebody else with Donovan Mitchell. DaVon Mitchell would be a good sign for them by the way. Um though I don’t want to say that too loud. And the Nets I I don’t think um you know and Don Mitchell may end the Nets too because they half the Nets are represented by his agent which is something Brian FC has mentioned before but the Nets uh you know they’re they’re in a build stage now with picks coming Muel Bridges trade some of them don’t come right away and so it’s going to take them a little bit of time to build. They’re in a they’ve never really cashed in correctly but they’re in a in they’re in a big market obviously and they have money to spend. and the owner has money to spend. So, I think that’s the case that can be made for, okay, if a couple of these teams are going to take a couple years to build, let’s go get KD right now. I’m with you. I’m with you. Um, I just would say this part of it. Uh, we may want to um wag our fingers and scold I’m doing that for audio only listeners on YouTube. I’m wagging my finger now and scold Toronto for not taking Kyle Anderson at the deadline cuz had the Heat uh skated underneath um the luxury tax in the Jimmy trade, it would have allowed them to do a lot more this summer than maybe they’ll do the following summer. So that’s the big question mark, Ethan, that I think that they’ll need to weigh is if they can get Durant. And I think that the show recently uh everyone should check it out um that you did talking about um with uh Brian. Yeah. Keller. Yeah. Yeah. Check that episode out everybody. He really was telegraphing KD and he has a convincing, you know, couple points to how he’ll get there. My point is if you can do that, I think you you have to explore it, but it’s just a matter of are you willing to, you know, pay the repeater tax and go through that kind of situation. And um they’ve shown a willingness to do it before. I just wish that Kyle Anderson, as much as he had some cool moments, uh, you know, for the Heat, he was better than I expected him to be, but had he landed elsewhere, they would have had the perfect move in terms of getting under the tax with the Jimmy trade, resetting that repeater clock, and then being able to get completely aggressive in this off season. I’ll just add one thing to the end of that, and Kyle Ash is on the is on the books for next year. Uh, I know they’re not upset with the Raptors about that because I I when they were doing that deal, Messiah was working on the Ingram thing and so the Heat understood that and it was kind of like so that was in the air. The Ingram deal got done. That’s my understanding of it. So, just want to be clear on that because there are some situations where the Heat Front Office has not been happy with a with a counterparty. Yeah, this is me unhappy. No, I I know. I know. And I just want to preface it that way because I like Portland, they were not happy. Okay, I can tell you like like clown show that was used a lot. Okay, in this case I I think there is respect for Toronto Front Office and what they were dealing with there. Um and they’ve dealt with Toronto on numerous occasions honestly. Um and obviously the Lowry trade was part of it. Now Messiah has a reputation for getting to like you know third base and not scoring on some of these trades. Um and so that’s it’s that’s not just a reputation here. for his reputation around the league. And it’s one of the reasons why the Giannis thing to me. I’ll believe it when I see it. I I I think now he did go get Ingram. He did get Kawawaii in 19 whatever the year was. Um but I I’m not and I’ve always said it’s funny because I go back years and I said and Giannis may end up in Toronto. I said that years ago and the reason is he’s talked about playing in an international city and it just feels like from what I know of that city having spent time in that city it feels like his kind of city. I I don’t I just I’ve always sort of sensed that he may end up there. He’s actually talked about Luca being in LA was a great thing because you want more international players in these kind of international cities. That’s why Miami made would make sense for him too, but then you’d have to trade the other guy who’s also represented by his agent Bam to get him. I believe talk about trading Bam on this show. So, no, I’m moving on. I’m joking. We’re not going to refuse on a Johnny episode. I’ll tell you that. I’m going to call you out on that one, but that’s fine. We refuse to talk about it in most circumstances, but on that one, I think that has to be discussed, but I I don’t think that’s actually going to ever happen. So, I I think it’s more likely and and I think you’re looking at a package maybe headlined by Scotty Barnes perhaps and RJ Barrett and if that’s what you’re looking at that he can’t touch that, but it also might put Toronto back quite a bit. Um, so I don’t know the roster could touch that if they did offer BAM and picks like I I think if Milwaukee doesn’t want to be if they want to remain competitive, if there’s if they feel so far in the salary doldrums that they have to uh try to remain competitive for the next few years, I would argue that Bam would be one of the more attractive pieces that could be dangled for Giannis, but that’s a conversation for another day. I I think you can make that case and I like Bam better as a player than Scotty Barnes. And I know some will disagree with me, but you can you can build more of an offense around Scotty Barnes than you can around Bam. That’s true. And they’re they’re going to need they’re going to need to get scoring to replace Giannis and and all that, but anyway, we we have a lot more episodes to get to and I don’t want to get all save that one. We So that’s it. We talked about Zack Low today. Zack, much respect. Okay, Kendrick Perkins, just please muzzle him. Have a good one, everybody. Thank you for listening to the five on the floor on the five reason sports network. After all, someone needs to listen to my dad.

Zach Lowe, now of the Ringer, has the Miami Heat ranked with the 8th best outlook of the 15 teams in the East. Is that too high? Low? And what factors matter most? Ethan Skolnick and Greg Sylvander evaluate Lowe’s assessment.

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