Houston Rockets: Devin Booker trade & new FVV deal | 2025 Mock Offseason | Third Apron Salarycast

Houston Rockets: Devin Booker trade & new FVV deal | 2025 Mock Offseason | Third Apron Salarycast

Hey, welcome to the show. I’m Yosi Goslin, NBA salary cap analyst. And this is another mockoff season, where I’m going to do some hypothetical moves, mainly for fun, but also to show how teams can accomplish their goals within the salary cap rules. And this one’s going to be on the Houston Rockets. I’ve already covered them thoroughly on the podcast. I had a nice discussion with Ben Duboth about them, and I wrote about their salary cap dynamics on Third Apron, so make sure to check those out. I put the link in the description so you can get a little more context about them heading into the offseason. So, I’m going to do this in two parts. The first one’s just going to be them trimming the payroll a little bit because they already have a very high payroll. So, I’m going to do a couple things to show how they can go about that without losing any of their depth. And then I’m going to show how they can make a major consolidation trade most likely at the trade deadline. So, here’s their payroll right now. They’ve got a couple pending team options. And when you put it all together, they’re already over the tax. The tax penalty isn’t that high, but they’re already over the first apron as well. and they’re not going to want to pay the tax this year unless maybe they make a big trade that requires them to do so. They wouldn’t have that big of a penalty, but ideally they want to delay being a taxpayer for as long as possible. But the biggest thing is that they don’t have a backup big right now. Uh Steven Adams is their most uh important free agent and if they’re going to bring him back, he might be getting something around the full mid-level, that 12 to$4 million range. So, not only do they want to get below the tax, assuming they’re running it back completely, but they want to clear enough space below it where they can comfortably fit Adams at his amount uh while staying below the tax. So, to do this, I’m going to do a couple things. Uh yeah, I’m going to cut some of these players on non-g guaranteed contracts. I’m going to have them trade their pick because I don’t think they’re going to want to bring in another player. With such a load of rotation, the guy probably wouldn’t play anyways. and we’re gonna restructure Fred Van Vleet’s contract, have him decline that team option and resign for something lower with a longer deal. So, let’s take a look at Van Vleet’s contract situation and I’m going to show the type of contract I could see him restructuring into. So, he’s got that $45 million team option. The Rockets gave him that three-year max deal. That’s an overpay to steal them from the Raptors, and now they the opportunity to decline it and give them a lower starting amount and a longer deal. Uh last year we saw Drew Holidayiday and Rudy Gobear. They had these high team options. They declined them. Took 25% reduction on those first year salaries and then got three or four years additionally on top of that. So this is basically the equivalent of what that would look like for Fred under a three-year deal could get him as low as 33.7 million. And under a three-year deal runs for 3 for 110 or 109. uh the equivalent of that to a four-year deal would be about four for 150 with the standard raises. So, this is something I could see uh Fred’s contract looking like, but the main thing is trying to lower that first year salary as much as possible because that would get them a lot closer to the line and give them immense savings. So, here’s the cap sheet I put together, assuming that they’re mostly running it back. But, I’ve got Fred at a much lower number. I got Steven Adams back in. I removed Jack Landale and Aaron Holiday. I don’t think they’re going to bring them back. They mainly signed them on deals with non-G guaranteed salaries on the later years so they can potentially trade them, but now they’re at the point where all their guys that would be part of a big deal, they’re all getting paid. Like Shenon, Jaylen Green, uh Dylan Brooks, Jabari Smith already makes a good amount of money on his rookie deal. So, whatever big trade they end up doing is probably going to involve these guys. So, they don’t really need those role players on those salaries to make a deal at this point. Now, they’re going to want to get below the tax. And as you can see, once they fill up the roster, they get up to 14 players. I also had them roll over their 10th overall pick for a future pick. It would be the same principle as them as what the Spurs did last year. They had the eighth pick. Uh they traded to the Wolves so they can select Rob Dillingham. And in exchange, the Spurs got a 2032 first round pick. So you get off that $6 million salary and you’re still keeping the value. You’re just pushing it into the future. The Rockets get right below the tax about 1.8 million. I give him a little bit of more wiggle room below that. So, at a minimum, this is how I could see the Rockets off season going. Now, as far as a trade goes, we’ve already seen them linked to Giannis. Not sure they’re going to want to pay the price it might take to get him. Uh Kevin Durant, not sure he fits a timeline, so I’m going to have them trade for Devin Booker, a guy that they’ve already been linked to. I don’t see the Rockets getting him now. I don’t think the Suns are going to make him available. The Suns are probably going to trade KD now and they’ll retool the roster around Booker and try to go for it again and see what happens. But assuming that that fails and they’re more or less the same team as they were last year, then they might have to seriously entertain trading Booker, in which case the Rockets will be in a good opportunity to do that, good position to do that around the trade deadline. And before we do any trade, I want to show the Rockets draft pick situation over the next eight drafts to show why they have such an attractive trade package. So they have a total of nine first round picks over the next seven drafts. Uh under the Steppian rule, you can’t trade picks in consecutive years. So despite those limitations, they can trade a maximum of six first round picks. So, their most optimal package would be they trade the 10th overall pick or if since I already traded it, whatever future pick they got, uh, then they can trade both their 27s, both their 29s and the 2031. Uh, so if they really want to get aggressive, that’s the most they can do. Now, as far as how these picks are, like what the situation is and who they’re owed picks from. So, they still have a swap with Brooklyn in 2027. So they can either have their own or Brooklyn’s and they get unprotected first from Phoenix in 2027 and most likely 2029. They are getting the two most favorable between their own Dallas and Phoenix’s. Uh so the whole idea behind the theory of why the Rockets are in such a good position to make a deal with the Suns is because they have control of the Suns draft through 2029. uh they regained it in that trade they did with the Nets last year where they gave the Nets their own picks back that they originally got for trading Harden and now they’re in control of Phoenix’s picks withdrawal looking very valuable. So in looking at a trade package for the Suns So when looking at a trade package for the Rockets I think they’re going to have to trade a good amount of their draft pick surplus. So the question is how deep do they want to go? Especially if the players they have available and I’m guessing the main untouchable is Thompson. Is that really do are those combination of players enough to get a deal done without picks? I’m not sure that’s possible. So, I don’t think they’re going to have to trade all these picks. I get the feeling that the way the Rockets would ideally want to do it is they just trade enough of their surplus where like maybe they trade a 2027, a 2029, whatever future pick they roll over the 2025 into. They just trade uh where they have a a surplus in. So, in the end, they have a draft pick in each of the following seasons, and they’re just pick neutral. So, although the Rockets made a significant leap going from a lottery team to a two seed in a loaded West, uh they’re a great defensive team, but they’ve been having some trouble scoring. So, I could see them going after an offensive star like Deon Booker to give him an infusion there. And like I said, this would be something I could see happening around the trade deadline. So, here’s the trade that I came up with. I think it’s pretty generous considering Booker’s in his 10th year. Uh, for the most part, this is the type of package I could see the Suns going for where they’re trading Jaylen Green and Jabari Smith and three picks. So, Devin Booker’s got a trade bonus that would boost his salary to this amount, the 35% max. This also applies to Giannis, the same as salary. So, since he’s making that much, the Rockets just need to get within 125% of Booker’s salary, uh, which is 43.1 million. and Green and Jabari’s salaries alone, they cover that. Uh, and then as far as the picks go, I have them trading them their own 2027 first back. Uh, I the most favorable of their 2029 first. So, that might be the Sun’s own pickback and whatever future first that they manage to trade the 10 overall pick for. Um, I’m guessing that that’s going to be what they end up doing ahead of the draft. And the thing to keep in mind about this framework is that it saves the Suns a good amount of money, but uh does it increases the Rockets’s payroll, increases their payroll by about 9 million, almost 10. So if you saw what their cap sheet was before, they were not that far. I didn’t have them that much lower than the tax level. So this is not going to put them over the tax. But not only that, since they’re increasing their payroll using an expanded trade exception, this 125% one, they are going to be hardcaped to the first apron. So now the main challenge is just making sure they can stay below that line. Uh because they’re going to be hardcaped to it after doing the trade this way. So now here’s the roster post Booker trade. I’ve got him slotted in for Jabari Smith and Jaylen Green. And I also have them doing a mid-se season signing because this is during the trade deadline. They have to get back to 14 players within a couple weeks and this has them going into the tax uh but just a little bit. The penalty is not that high. Uh assuming that they are still a homec court team might be worth biting the bullet on small tax penalty. Biggest thing is that by being in the tax you’re you’re expediting your repeater clock. So like I mentioned earlier that repeater thing you could pay higher rates sooner. Uh but they could avoid that by doing some other moves if they want. Maybe they end up trading Shenon separately for a different type of starting center. Maybe one who’s more of a rim protector. Maybe they end up trading Dylan Brooks. Or maybe they have to include Reed Shepard in the deal. So, there’s a lot of different ways they can go about getting below the tax. But just for this uh exercise, I just want to show how they can put this roster together, make a trade for a star, but just mainly stay below the first apron after they do this trade and do that 14 signing. I have them just just below the first apron. Now, I want to show what their cap sheet next year would look like, but before we do that, I need to talk about Tar Een. So, he and Jabari Smith will be extension eligible this summer. I don’t really see them getting any deal done with Jabari, but as far as Tari goes, assuming they keep him, I think that they’re going to keep him long term. Might not extend him now, but I could see them taking it into restricted free agency. And just based on how he’s played, he’s been injured quite a bit. This is kind of what I could see him getting on the highest ends. Uh gave him roughly 14% of the of the cap. It’s like a little less than guys like Jada McDaniels, Tobias Harris recently. So starts at about like 24 million could run up to four years just under 107. So now let’s take a look at the Rockets roster the following year to see how this all works but mainly to give a bit a more of a bigger picture analysis of what’s to come once they do some big consolidation trade. So here I’ve got Booker on his max deal. Fred on his deal I projected Tari on that deal I projected Steven Adams. I could see him doing like a multi-year deal similar to what Jock Landale got where it’s like 12 million or something like that guaranteed in the first year and then he gets three additional years non-G guaranteed. Uh I think given his recent injury uh history that could make some sense for Adams. This gives him a chance to make a good amount of money anyways. Uh but as you can see they are going to be into the tax with this roster I put together. uh not too bad of a penalty, just under 13 million and over the first apron. So, pretty much a very similar uh payroll level that they have currently heading into the current off season. Now, the biggest thing going forward is the Rockets had this what I’ve been calling too many good player problems where they drafted reasonably well each year and are pretty deep. Uh the biggest thing about next season is that this is going to be Amond Thompson’s last year on his rookie deal. And if he continues on his trajectory, uh makes another leap, he’s going to get a max deal. I think he’s already he seems pretty on pace to get one already. So, if you’re talking about him getting a max contract and you already get another guy making a 30 or 35% max contract on top of having Shenun and Van Vleet, maybe you bring back Een uh and you still have Reed Shepard potentially. Something is going to have to give. And the biggest thing about the new CBA isn’t so much that, you know, because you’re in the second apron, you’re going to have all these limitations for the Rockets. not so much who can they get once they go over the second apron if they ever do, but who’s going to be their top five, six guys. And I think that’s what the new CBA is going to start pushing teams like the Rockets who have a a very nice collection of of talented players. Who do you want to keep from the group and who do you want to pay and how much? So, how can that decision come? Maybe in the next year or two they trade Dylan Brooks. Uh maybe they don’t end up keeping Reach Shepard long-term. Uh like I said earlier, maybe they trade Shenon for a cheaper center. So we’ll see how they go about it. But as we get closer to Aman Thompson’s um next salary, there is going to be somewhat of a consolidation. Not so much for another star or anything like that, just to tighten the roster into their top five, six guys. And since they’re already over the tax, it’s very possible we see those decisions come a little sooner uh to potentially get them below the tax this year and the following season. So that’s my Rockets mockoff season. Just wanted to show how they can accomplish things within the salary cap rules and also just having some fun with it. Let me know what you guys think in the comments. I’m really interested in knowing what you guys think about that Van Vleet contract structure I gave and the valuation I made in a trade package for Booker. Is that a little too much or maybe not enough? Uh, make sure you subscribe to me on YouTube. Uh, make sure you follow me on Twitter and Blue Sky. I’m gonna be reacting to transactions over the coming months. And subscribe to Third Apron. Check the links in the description about sports business classroom as

In this mock offseason, I analyze the Rockets’ salary cap situation for their upcoming offseason, make moves that get them below the luxury tax, and make their big move for Devin Booker.

Rockets offseason preview: https://www.thirdapron.com/p/houston-rockets-2025-offseason-priorities
Rockets offseason discussion: https://youtu.be/juqe0qatHkY

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