Houston Rockets | Game Theory Offseason Preview

Houston Rockets | Game Theory Offseason Preview

hello and welcome to the Game Theory podcast offseason preview series where Bryce Simon and I dive deep into every NBA team’s off season and all of the difficult decisions that they have to make in the month of July today we’re talking about the Houston Rockets one of the teams that Bryce and I talk about more than any other uh in the league we’ve been talking about them before they finish second in the Western Conference this year and we will talk about them for quite a long while because of their intriguing team build with all of their young players but before we do that we do just want to shout out all the listeners thank you all for hanging out with us you have had us surpass 42,000 subscribers over on YouTube uh we appreciate you guys immensely go subscribe on the YouTube page leave a like go listen on the podcast feeds as well these go up about every day around 12 or so Eastern time uh you’ll be able to listen to these if you’re not by a computer so thank you all so so much for how successful this series has been but Bryce it’s time to get into Houston a team that you know again we love we love the Houston Rockets we talk about them so often uh we find their team build fascinating we find their decisions fascinating uh I I I love everything I see from the Houston Rockets uh by and large except for one minor exception I would argue but look this is a team that had a crazy amount of success this year with a very young team they won over 50 games they were the second seed yes they lost to the Golden State Warriors in seven but it was a competitive series it was tough against a team with uh you know Stephen Curry Jimmy Butler Draymond Green look this is a team that has an identity I think first and foremost you know they are a defense first team that is really really tough and physical now they need to find the offense is what it feels like to me yeah i mean really impressive season i I said that at one point on this podcast was if the West is so good and so deep and has so many talented rosters and the Houston Rockets are number two in that Western Conference they deserve a ton of credit for doing that and rightfully so so shout out the Houston Rockets for the season they had i think now for me it is it is truly like let’s start building this thing out let’s continue to move making steps to move forward and making decisions on who are the young players we truly believe in who are the ones we’re okay moving off of and what do we need to identify and bring in do we need a true number one option is Shingune that or is he not can he be that guy or do we need to find somebody else i’m not saying trade Shunon i’m saying do we need to find an offensive option above what Shingun is capable of what is Reed Shepard is he not um Jabari Smith has he found a role is it off the bench you know like all of those things we can go through the whole roster and I’m sure we’re about to do so but I I think that is the thing now like you’re you’ve got a lot of data collection on these guys and so now it’s time to start making decisions on that and start moving it forward the other thing for the Rockets now is that this is the summer where it could theoretically get very expensive for them sure yeah because they have already extended Alpin Shangun and Jaylen Green they have extension decisions now on Jabari Smith Jr and Tari Een obviously Fred Van Vleet is a interesting situation as well where they have to figure out what his contract is going to look like it’s a complicated off season for Houston is this the consolidation off season is this the offseason where you decide you know what we’re just going with the kids and we’re trusting them work for Oklahoma City we’re going to see if it works for us right sure they have a ton of picks forthcoming they own multiple Phoenix Suns picks uh they’re in like a super super positive situation there that gives them both trade value but also a potential to replenish talent moving forward optionality is kind of the key for Houston and that’s almost why like this preview is so complicated in some ways right because they just have a ton of options that they have at their disposal as we kind of go through it let’s lay out their financial picture first here just very quickly so they are currently if you include the Fred Van Vleet team option right they are 5 million away from the first apron 17 million away from the second apron for 12 players right now but Fred Van Vleet has a team option that is slated for right around I believe like $44 million if I remember correctly just under 45 yep yep is there a way that Fred Van Vleet looks at this summer and says “Okay let’s lock in some money now i will do you guys a favor and take less this year i will take like 33 per year maybe we do like a 3100 deal right?” opt out of the team opt or the the team you know declines his team option and then signs him to a three-year hundred million dollar deal right that gets them 16 million away from the first apron and 28 million away from the second apron that gives them like the kind of financial flexibility they probably need in order to be able to go out and like make some moves i will be that’s like the start of this off seasonason to me is figuring out what the number is for Fred Van Vleet or do you keep him do you trade him you know do you you know pick up the team option and move them they just have so many different options but the first domino for sure to me is Fred Van Vleet it’s it’s funny as we talk through this now specifically from the Houston side because when we did the Suns offseason preview breakdown we talked about the potential of a Kevin Durant trade i’m sure we’ll talk about that a little bit here and I brought up wanting to keep Fred on the team in that situation but you just said something that’s interesting to me i know I said you got to keep building this thing out and growing but maybe growth is going the young like just really buying into the kids like getting off these bets and even if it ends up being a similar situation where you win what did they win last year what was the number um 50 yeah 52 games last season if if you can stay top four top five in the West but it’s all with the youth like Shephard actually plays and you lean into men even more and Tari and Jabari and maybe Cam Whitmore gets some time you know whatever i I hadn’t thought about that path as much to be honest with you Sam and I think this leans into the Fred question in terms of if you want to go that way is there a world where they just decline the option and move on and just say like even even at a decent number that you outlined we’re actually ready for the Reed Shepard experience and to like and to move forward with that like how viable is that path for them this off season it would be a big bet on Reed yeah to be able to come in from the jump and just go now like one thing I will share is like the Rockets are extremely high on Reed still like do not shake the fact that like or do not mistake maybe the fact that you know he did not play a ton this year under Eay like he played 52 games played probably like you know 600 minutes or so didn’t shoot it super well right like they still have like full belief in him at this point do you maybe just opt into the Fred thing for one year so that’s interesting as well right like do we just say we need one more year of this to get Reed ready that that even though that number is ridiculous for where Fred is at now as a player and listen I I think Fred is still important and I wish he made more shots but I still think he does a lot of other really positive things for this team i could I could understand that right in terms of we just need one more year from you i always thought that this option would be declined and either Fred just go ahead and walk you know into free agency or they would you know turn it into a three-year deal at a much lower number or something but that is an interesting idea of just you know what we need one more just one more year we don’t need anything more than that after this year we think we’re he’s going to be ready but we we really could use Fred’s leadership veteran you know all of that for one more year and let’s just keep it at this number so that that that’s interesting i think that’s the least likely outcome for what it’s worth just because that number is so high and Yeah and they need the flexibility now yeah i think the most likely outcome is they just do it and extend him and say “Okay we’re gonna do three years at like three years 90 three years 100 whatever it is.” Right so like you have to find the number where it works right so like let’s say Fred gets paid 45 this year what does he get paid next summer entering free agency at 31 years old honestly 32 years old I’m sorry with like all of the tread that he has on his tires at this point where like he misses time like he played 73 games in 2024 for Houston in that first year but you know 60 games 69 65 52 54 64 in the years outside of that you know 73 game 2023 24 season I mean does he get at 32 does he get 30 million on I I I don’t think so Sam like not if he not if he has the same shooting splits we saw this season you know what I mean like you’re a year older i I know the playoffs were better um for sure for Fred i mean much better he he hit threes and you saw like when he was making shots you saw how much better that team was offensively and like like the proof of concept with that but if he has a similar regular season where he plays 60 games and shoots under 38% from the field and 35% from three I don’t I don’t think so i mean I think that’s where like I wonder if you could get him at three at 90 because what’ you say 45 that means he’d have to go he would have to be confident that he could get two for 45 two for 45 i think he would get that for what it’s worth yeah i mean I think he’d get 20 a year but like I’m not sure it’s Yeah I think it’s I think the number is somewhere in the 390 to 300 window is what it feels like to me okay somewhere in the 390 to 300 window like makes a ton of sense if you do three years I was just trying to look like the other guy’s numbers aren’t coming up like even a men’s numbers just coming on there yeah it’d be just coming on i I think that what you’d be setting up for but and the cap is going to continue to rise is the key here too i think what you’d be setting up for is to potentially move him down the road if Reed is good enough like if Reed’s good enough next year Red Van Vleet at 390 or 300 is still fine like that’s a pretty solid deal based on what he’s doing and it would only be two at 60 at that point right like whenever you’re if it’s next off season yeah but if it’s in the middle of next season even because like Reed’s ready like that’s the best case scenario is like Reed’s just awesome from the jump next year right but even so like even say it’s next off season I still think him at like 260 to 265 is probably fine and if I was them the way I would structure this deal too is I would have it be a declining deal yeah because you’re not extending off of this deal yeah if it’s 395 even if you do it’s unlikely that you know he’s going to be at 35 years old worth 30 million probably correct so you you definitely structure it I think as a declining deal you know you continue to open up flexibility long-term you give him the money up front that he like he might be losing this year by not picking up the team option i think that’s that’s probably the strategy here is like a 390 to 300 declining contract i like that so you’re you’re you’re going to save in somewhere around 10 million this year on a deal like that if if it’s a three at 90 the numbers would be roughly 35 30 25 like spitballing so you can save about 10 million this season in the on the cap yeah well I mean or you could just do it flat honestly if you wanted to like flat wouldn’t hurt anybody either so it could be like three you know what 390 with 30 3030 395 with you know 30 or 396 with 32 32 32 and that saves you almost 13 million on your books this summer which would be really important to their flexibility sure so that that’s where this starts we think that this probably ends with that like just logically that makes sense to me yes I I agree with you that I don’t think they go straight young guys this off season whatever i I think it would be fun i think it’d be interesting um but I don’t foresee that and it doesn’t seem like bringing him back at this number is the most practical idea so that would give you let’s call it 95 let’s call it like 396 right so $32 million a year that would leave you 18 million away basically from the first apron some of that will be taken up for the number 10 overall pick so let’s call it like 12 left before the first apron the other big thing here is Stephen Adams in the backup center spot in general but Stephen Adams is the key here stephen Adams was their second best player in the playoffs in the playoffs like I’ll hear out a number of cases for like I’ll hear out he was their best player i’ll hear out he was their third best player like whatever you want to say undeniably critical to what they did this year especially down the stretch having figured out the two big lineup with the zone i think that’s a counter i don’t think that that can be your primary look but I’m fine with that being a look for you ultimately it’s going to come down to what Stephen Adams wants like there are so many different places where Stephen Adams could go and be a starting center right now like we talked about Atlanta when we did their preview if Atlanta signs Stephen Adams I mean this is just it’s a home run for them you know what I mean he’s the exact guy that they need he is a perfect screener for Trey Young he’d be a monster defender on the interior for some of these young guys in like their longer wings and behind Trey Young certainly teams like the Lakers if he wants to go to like a team that could theoretically be a contender and start and not just be like on the Rockets is you know the backup that plays 25 minutes a night 20 minutes a night as like a counter with Shangun it’s really dependent on what Stephen Adams wants i desperately want to keep him if I’m Houston i And I think he is a guy where I am more than happy to pay damn near the full mid-level over like three years like if he gets 342 345 like that makes total sense to me and they have bird rights on him so that they can they can do this and keep him around that number um and that that that’s going to be important for them depending on how where they like like that’s ultimately what’s going to come down to potentially is what are some of these other teams willing to give him and how high do they have to go where they can outmatch i mean they could get to a number outmatching pretty much anybody if they needed to because of the bird rights yeah they can uh but he’s unrestricted like he is his own correct choices here it’s not like assuming yeah he assuming he wants to stay and he likes his role and all of that so yeah so the Steven Adams thing is critical i’m happy to give him 3 345 probably sounds right to me like somewhere in that ballpark for him i do think there’s probably a team out there that would give him the full mid level for you know at least two years realistically so that’d be like right around 231ish 230 to 31 if memory serves um if I’m Houston I really want to keep him is the reality and they would then if they kept Stephen Adams under his bird rights and you redo the Fred deal you know say that Fred basically takes you know Stephen Adams basically takes up all the money that you’re save saving by redoing the Fred deal again you’re probably in a circumstance where you’re either using part of the non- taxpayer midlevel or you’re using just the taxpayer midle at that point you’re not going over 5.7 probably in order to go get another player there are players out there you could find for 5.7 i think they would have to use the non- taxpayer or the I’m sorry the taxpayer if you the the thing though is like how many rotation spots are left if you do bring totally like I mean right now where we’ve essentially run it back and you aren’t losing anybody that was really in your rotation last year right and and that was with Reed not playing a ton of minutes throughout the season and we think he’s at least going to be involved in the rotation so he’s already eating into some minutes somewhere So and you’re involving a number 10 pick now how many minutes does that player get or need or whatever and honestly like this is a team a few guys helped like Jabari only played 57 games tari only played 57 games we haven’t even mentioned Cam Whitmore yet who only played 51 games you know so like y there there’s there’s plenty of guys on the roster that if you quote unquote run it back with the two vets that have contract decisions in terms of Van Vleet and Adams so Aaron Holiday played 800 minutes last season and then Steven Adam or uh not Stephen Adams sorry Reed Shepard played like 700 you could get to Reed at like 1500 just by removing Aaron Holiday from the equation and he has a team option if I remember correctly so like very easy to make that work let’s go before we get to like the big overarching like that’s not a nothing that’s a $5 million team option so like if if they wanted to create a low like listen like I like Aaron Holiday um I think he’s an interesting like backup guard but if they wanted to create some more like as we’ve talked through this um some more room some more room that’s it’s not like it’s a $2 million it’s a $4.9 million team option so like that’s that’s not nothing of a decision and same with the Jock Londale deal the Lndale deal is 8 million non-G guaranteed so if you bring back Stephen Adams you probably do not bring back Lawndale I would imagine and that saves you the money right yeah but the thing that the that the Holiday and Lndale deals do is they give you some real expiring money to play with right now in trades so that’s why I’ve kind of kept them on the roster right now in terms of like being able to maneuver and find some flexibility and if I’m lale like I’m probably not getting $8 million a year next year so I am willing to like continue to extend out my non-G guarantee date to see what that looks like you know what I mean sure so again like let’s even say that you get rid of the lndale piece of it so that gets you back to and you keep Stephen Adams and you’ve redone the Fred deal that gets you to like 13 million away from the first apron which means that like you’re able to use you’re pretty close to able to use the non- taxpayer right so you could go out and get like a real player if you wanted to but again how many rotation spots are there at this point on this team so it’s all like that’s why this off season is so complicated to talk about because they have so many different routes and this is a credit to Rafel Stone to Eli Whittis like their front office you know shout out old podcast partner here Cole Zwicker you know certainly involved in that front office like there are so many different ways that they can go about things in that like in their off season here they have so many different ways to think about how they manage their off season you know if you got rid of both Lndale and Holiday you’re opening up you know probably like 16 to 18 away from the First Apron my guess is that without a trade they will probably not be a first apron team next year by the end of the year at least because you can just remove Holiday and Lawndale if you want to to get away from the money if you need to so before we get into the trades there are two places I want to go to next okay first Jabari Smith and Tari Een extension eligible do you have like these are two of the toughest guys for me to find a number for honestly extension wise like I I just don’t know what to do with either jabari is like theoretically an incredibly valuable archetype as like a big shooting you know forward wing sometimes big hybrid that like theoretically I think you can win with he is I think a solid defender i don’t think he’s like a great defender at this point uh he’s generally pretty solid to me tari is like this whirling dervish of energy and effort and making [ __ ] happen is like the easiest way to explain Tari he’s the make [ __ ] happen guy but the finishing is not great i think his feel for the game you know continues to grow like I think he’s getting better year by year in that respect but like it is like I am physically dominant you know in a way that most guys aren’t at 6’8 7 foot2 wingspan 230 lbs super athlete super motor like I’m just going to go and get it right do you win in the playoffs with those guys some you might if he’s a real shooter like if he continues to develop into being a real shooter you definitely win with them in the playoffs but are either of these guys like I I don’t know how much upside either of these guys have either well I guess that’s my thing is when I think about these like what what eventually is the role for Jabari Smith Jr and Tari E like are they do you think the Rockets front office is penciling them in as like this just really dynamic duo off the bench right like is that is that what these two guys are or is it Yeah what I would think is that they would love Jabari to be able to be the starting four next to Alparin i would agree like in between Alpin and and men and and the floor spacing and and what he does enough defensively and the rebounding and all of that fits right like he he makes a ton of sense as the starting four so I think because the theory of it works to be clear like sure the actuality at times is not like it’s not there yet but the theory of what he is works so my my the point there would then be like there’s no place for Tari to start then if that is your future 345 right I think it’s unlikely I shouldn’t say no way because a min is a a min is so versatile it kind of opens up positional stuff um that It would need it would need to be Reed is amazing and plays off of a men so well that they can be your one and two two correct and then it’s Tari Jabari and Alpin that that’s the ideal world right like if that that is the ideal rocket scenario is Reed Amen Tari Jabari Alprin all of these guys keep developing and making it work and Tari shoots it well enough Jabari shoots it consistently Reed is lights out and And so like the nonshooting of Amen and Alprin ends up being okay um that’s the ideal world i I don’t know that like we can expect that all of those guys hit the ceilings to where that works so my point is like I feel like only one of these guys ends up being a starter and so like you only end up paying one of them with the potential of that and then the other one ends up getting paid like a a bench guy but like if I’m taring I’m like I have better upside than that like I I can be a starter like on another team and so I I I don’t know like I I don’t know where the money starts and this is where it ends up a lot of times i think what I would feel comfortable giving a player probably isn’t enough to where a player would take it and they would just rather bet on themselves um if you’re if you’re Jabari Smith you’ve made already by the end of next year you know right around $40 million let’s call it that’s like a that’s good enough to where like you’re you’re good at that point like you’re not you know it’s not generational wealth necessarily i mean it is generational wealth but like you know not like crazy NBA money right do you take 490 400 like So so I went and looked at the Trey Murphy deal his was 4 for 112 and Murphy had been better than Jabari so I was like okay it’s definitely lower than Murphy but you also have some inflation involved because the Murphy deal was earlier yep and I found myself in the same ballpark as where you ended up based off of that i don’t think it’s 30 for sure i don’t think so either Sam but like if Jabari is not going to take if if I if the Rockets go to Jabari and offer 4 for 80 is he taking that i think four for 80 probably no but if it’s four for 95 to 105 I think maybe yes i would take that if I was Jabari like four for Yeah like four maybe like 24 a year that’s like upside he’s not there yet like he’s That could go like south a little bit I think but it’s enough upside like it’s like right in the middle of the outcomes here to where there’s upside for the team there’s upside for the player if the player isn’t great like that that feel it gives security jabari Smith would rehit free agency at I believe like 26 27 like something like that so he would be incredibly young still if he is awesome like if he turns out to be like really really good i feel like that’s right around the number is like 4 490 to 400 maybe you you know why this is scary is because Patrick Williams like Patrick Williams is the player that terrifies me whenever we do these because that wasn’t like a like it didn’t make sense but that was five for 90 and that made our worst contracts list you know what I mean like that’s what’s scary even with Jabari if you give him even at 22 a year um it’s not a five-year deal we’re not talking about that but I mean so like let’s play it out let’s say you give him four for 90 and he ends up being coming off the bench how do you feel about that contract two years from now if he has to be your backup four or five i think it’s probably still okay because A you know I think that every team probably will be close to having a bench player for $20 million at that point okay and B I think that because of his archetype of being like a big shooter there will just always be somebody that’s willing to bet on it sure okay so I think I’m willing to play like as long as he’s willing to take like just slightly under a hundred or like if he’s willing to take like right around there my my max would probably be 100 I would say if I was Houston i think so too i if he wants more than that like I’m just playing it to free agency next year and that’s okay tari is even more complicated because Tari has been a better player so far to me than Jabari but like the pathway is almost harder in some ways for him to be like a super high level starter and my thing is like which one are you going to give both of these guys 20 plus million a year with the chance that both of them end up on your bench sam I think yes is the expectation because here’s here’s the thing though like Dylan Brooks has two years left right so like you’d only be overlapping the Dylan Brooks deal by one year for one year okay but like you know again like if I’m Tari and I see Jabari Smith making you know 490 or 400 whatever the number is let’s even say it’s like 485 or something for Jabari like who knows i I I mean I think I’ve been better than Jabari so far i think I want more than that right so like I always get into this is what I always get in every rookie extension conversation we’ve had this is where I land where you would think after four years I’d feel more conf confident in what we’ve seen from these players and what I’d be comfortable giving them i’m sorry three years um it’s really hard it’s genuinely really hard it it makes me appreciate what front offices do right like in terms of these these like coming up with making these decisions and I will say they’re working with better and more data than we are because like they live day in and day out evaluating Jabari Smith Jr and his trajectory even if it’s not linear you still have an idea of what the trajectory is and where he slots into the starting lineup and I think ultimately that’s what it comes down to i think if you’re the Rockets you have to be able to play this out a little bit into are either of these guys starting for us if we whichever one you think is we’re maybe a little bit more willing to give that guy closer to a hundred million and then the other guy we’re probably going to give a number that we’re gonna have to be comfortable he’s going to turn down or we actually think both of them are going to end up bench players and then can we get them both at a really nice number for a bench player like if you got them both at 4 for 80 would you feel good about that if you’re the Rockets i’d feel amazing if I got both of them for 48 if you think they’re both bench players though yeah I’m fine with that okay they both they both would have value at 480 I think yeah so that’s but that’s not realistic right like neither of them are taking that because neither of them think they’re bench players and when I say bench players I don’t mean they suck i’m saying like even if they’re your I will say like in Tar’s case like Tari has not made crazy money yet like Tari has made $10 million and will make an additional like five and a half next year right like you actually have like a little bit more leverage on him I think to be able to go and say “Oh no.” Like you know this is your payday like lock in your money yeah and like I guess we’ve talked about this like Malik Monk’s deal as a six-man we talked about with Nas Reed as a six-man like this is what really highlevel bench players are going to make right can you pay two of them I guess is where I’m struggling right now i think yes is where I’m at i I if we’re planning on one of them moving into the starting lineup which I think I would be like yes I I would be so you give both of them somewhere in the 20 to 25 a year range 20 22 to 25 something like that with the idea that one is going to end up being a starter and that’s a really good value and the other one is going to be a highlevel bench player and that’s still a solid value yes I think that’s what I’m doing so if I can get Jabari for a little more than Tari because you have more leverage over Tari because he hasn’t made as much money is that how we think it ends up playing out then maybe and honestly like this might not even be a summer thing this might be a fall thing you know what I mean like these negotiations last into the fall all the time i wouldn’t be surprised to see that but I think I would as long as the number is not crazy on either it It’s funny i think the Tari one is almost harder but I almost think it’s more likely to that they do Tari because I think that it’s like in some ways easier and look we’re trying to like play both sides of it this is why the these conversations are always hard Bryce like yeah we’re trying to play both sides of it we’re trying to figure out okay this is what makes sense for everybody you know what I mean this is m what makes sense for uh both Tari and for the team the team is just offering a deal that’s fair that makes sense for the team right like their their side of it is almost easier than what we’re like trying to converse through here right so I think I would say it’s more likely they do something with Tari because I almost think it’s a little bit easier to do something with Tari yeah yeah okay i’m cool i would not go into like I would start to get nervous in the upper 20s is what I would say you start getting over 25 AAV and I start to get a little nervous um so that I think that’s where I’m comfortable with it okay that kind of actually leads into the the conversation I wanted to save for later but I I’ll do this now if I am the Rockets this is probably the summer where if something ideal comes along I would like to consolidate ideal is obviously Giannis sure like if Giannis comes available I am probably trying to move a lot to get him because financially this summer and next summer are the two windows where it gets very difficult for you we’ve learned that with Orlando like we’ve learned that with how expensive they have gotten in a hurry what I would worry about with Houston particularly is I do not think that they have the number one option on a title team right now and I say that fully knowing that like the Pacers are up in the NBA finals right now as we record this and I don’t know if I would have said they have a number one option you know as they started their build by trading for Tyrese Hallebertton i probably would have said at the time that I thought Hallebertton was like you know a potential AllNNBA guy that might not be able to be a number one on a title team houston is in a weird spot where we love Amen Thompson we think Amen to like I think Amen Thompson is going to be an allNBA player i’ll just straight up say that i think he’s unbelievable i’m a huge fan i don’t know if he’s going to be like a true number one on a title team i I am skeptical that Alperin Shenun is going to be a number one on a title team i I feel quite good that Jaylen Green is not going to be a number one on a title team yeah so the risk that you run in my opinion here is that you have a situation very similar to the Memphis Grizzlies where the Grizzlies were amazing as they were coming up and now they’ve kind of you know due to injury but also due to just the rest of the league getting better right kind of you know flatlined a little bit plateaued maybe is the better word flatlined implies death like they’re not dead but they they have plateaued in a real way houston the way to avoid it is by going to get a star to me or drafting a star maybe you draft your star at 10 this year maybe you you know use the Brooklyn picks that you have in the future to draft your star right like there there are myriad things that you can do but I think that the key for me here is that either this summer or next summer Houston has to come away either knowing it has a star like it’s number one guy in a man or or Reed you know like we should mention Reed in this conversation on some level too or they have to go move one move somebody for one because once you also have to pay a men what is going to be a max deal and a men is going to get a max deal like I feel very confident of that you then become exceptionally expensive and your numbers are like all over the map on the team and look I think all of these players would still likely have trade value across the board but I think that once they get expensive and all of them get expensive it becomes a little bit harder to move them at that point and you would want to be able to go get a star yeah I I have no problem i would similar to you i would be supportive of them checking in on the names right like the the two right now are Giannis and and Kevin Durant but whoever um I I would be comfortable with the Rockets and supportive of them looking into those things i I said going into the playoffs it was still only seven games it was one series but it was like I wanted to see what the young guys had data collection for them and I I’m with you i I don’t see the number one option right now obviously players can improve and continue to grow and all of that and I understand people that are going to come back and say that Shinun can be that guy or will be that guy and and sure but I have no problem them being in the Giannis business or the Durant business if the price is right um especially for Durant i I’m very specific on how I would what I feel like they should give up in that scenario giannis is a little bit different because you’re trading for a top three player in the world and so that there’s a little bit different that goes along with that aspect of it i I’m again I’m all about windows but part of the windows is you have to open it and I’m not sure they have completely open their window yet because they don’t have that number one guy unless the front office is fully convinced that it is going to be a men in the next year or two or it’s going to be Shingun next year or like you said Reed Shepard in the next couple years but you have to open the window to have that window and it may end up taking a trade to open the window what is the most you would give up for Giannis i mean it’s a copout answer but enough for me to be competitive next year i can’t trade all of these guys and not be competitive next year and it you know like I would give up the picks I think more than I know you have to match money like I get that but I mean I guess my question would be is can Giannis Amen and Alprin share the floor together probably not right so I I think not all that effectively yeah yeah so like that that just inherently there if you’re going to have to give up one of those guys because you don’t think it makes sense then I guess Alprin and I Rockets fans are going to hate me for that but um it’s Giannis so can I can I make a slightly different case you’re not you can’t be the one to trade a men that makes no sense so if I am the Rockets and I am thinking of trading for Giannis and my goal here if I’m trading for Giannis is to open the window as wide open as possible over the next two years right i think that it makes sense to have a large portion of the trade value for Giannis tied up in one player as opposed to like five assets right because that way it allows you to keep the depth to be able to go out and like continue to make moves to contend or to like in terms of trade value or just to like keep your team and compete with Giannis so like if it’s the difference between like okay we have to give up Alperin you know Reed multiple picks XYZ right and you know whatever the money you’d probably need lndale to match the money there just off the top of my head right I think I would rather if it’s like a men in Jaylen to like match the money and then lndale I think I would rather just do like a men and Jaylen and like a pick or two if they’re like okay a men is such a substantial asset for us in this deal that you have to give us substantially less okay in the deal the whole idea is a men’s value is so is more than shingun’s partially because of the contract situation where Alprin’s already been paid and yeah and I I think Amen’s a better I thought Amen I thought Amen was their best player like for the second half of the season blank this year just in general he’s the best player asset on the team he’s also still on his rookie deal for now where Shingun’s already gotten paid but like if he’s worth two real assets less yes that makes you better in terms of the window with Giannis I will also say if we’re talking 2-year window with Giannis like the window is bigger with Giannis than that though right yeah I I would think so yeah okay um I I That sucks i I hate trading a men if I’m Houston i love Amen Thompson i think everybody knows that I’m like the biggest Amend Thompson fan that you will find like in the national media or whatever right i think that if you’re going to get Giannis you need to maintain depth like if putting amen in allows you to keep Tari and Reed sure as opposed to if it’s Alperin you have to do oh Tari Reed in like you know two firsts or something right I am putting in a men over Alpin at that point and I’m not even saying like I love the Alpine fit either with Giannis like I have questions there to be sure which one do you like better I probably like the Amen fit with Giannis better personally like I think that even Even Amen being better players like just in general in terms of architecture yeah I like the fit with Amen better because Amen doesn’t take up space on the interior like a men is somebody who like moves around the offensive zone so much that and like is so athletic that I think he’s weirdly like you don’t have to guard him from three but you have to be cognizant of him as a help defender like if he like he can back cut you at any time and he’s so lightning quick and he gets downhill so quickly that he’s more of a movement piece within the offensive zone than what Alperin is alpin is somebody that like likes to take up the same areas as Giannis so I think a men works way better with Giannis personally like I don’t even really frankly think it’s all that close especially when accounting for the defensive side of it so like there’s that piece of it too that’s really important to call out if you have to move one of these guys and like there’s no question that if they acquire Giannis they would have to move one of these guys at least but I think that Amen has a lot more value on the trade market than what Alpirin does maybe I’m wrong maybe Milwaukee would think of it differently you know who knows maybe they would see them as somewhat equivalent i’d be surprised by that but like you never know every team evaluates things differently hence why we end up with a Josh Giddy for Alex Caruso trade straight up right so or a Luca Donic for Anthony Davis and Max Christie in a first deal like every team evaluates these things so differently so like it it’s you never know may maybe the Bucks really love Alperin but I think most people around the league from my conversations would say that like a men has a lot more value than Alberin and if moving a men would allow you to keep the two additional assets sure in terms of depth in terms of like high leverage first round picks moving forward everything like that I think I would rather move a men because I think it helps you continue to maintain a super highlevel roster around Giannis because don’t you think you’d want to build out this roster even after that like is are you keeping Jaylen Green on this roster if you’re winning if you’re opening your title window in 2526 i think if a Giannis deal is happening and it doesn’t involve Fred Van Vleet i guess Alperin can get you pretty close to the money if it’s if it’s a men Jaylen Green’s like almost certainly in the deal yeah well and I financially I I’m I’m saying like even regardless of that like if he doesn’t if he doesn’t have to be in the deal to make the money work like you you move him in a different deal right cuz like Jaylen neither of us think Jaylen Green’s ready to win in the playoffs right now right like he may still get there so if you’re trading for Giannis I don’t see where Jaylen Green makes sense for this team anymore because all of a sudden now you need a team full of guys ready to go win at the highest level next season i wonder if there’s a case that like Giannis would help a little bit more he slots into a better role now and to help Jaylen like slot into a bit of a better role yeah like I can see that you know h having him bring the ball up the court in transition you know creates a lot of you know different leverage defensively in terms of cross matches and things like that like sure you know it could help him i I don’t know that it’s but like if it’s a men like you’re almost certainly moving Jaylen Green in that deal to me sure so just financially like to make the finances work unless you’re moving both a men and alpin which I think is probably aggressive but I would look at it to get Giannis at the very least if you told me I could do just a men and Alberin for Giannis and then lale to match the money that’s also quite interesting to me it’s funny because like I’m not even like I just have an attachment to a men Thompson on the Rockets for some reason so do I and I’m obviously not a fan i just like I feel like I’m fan I’m I feel like I’m fanning right now where I don’t want to trade these players that I’m attached to being on this neither do I i I you know we love this rocket scene but I worry that it’s about to get wildly expensive and like limit their flexibility to go be able to like find the next guy unless you think a man is just straight up the guy and I I’ll hear out a case for a man just straight up being the guy for what it’s worth i think that highly of a men but if I told you the team next year was literally Fred Jaylen Dylan Giannis Steven Adams Jabari Smith Tari E Reed Shepard Cam Whitmore we think that team’s like genuinely contending right yeah and they have assets to go fill out the roster if they don’t like it right like if you just if you just traded a men and Alprin you could still go trade for whatever you wanted to round out the roster correct like that’s a pretty awesome basketball team and I don’t know that I don’t know if Milwaukee gets like better deal than a men and Alpurn right yeah that’s depends on how much you like Dylan Harper probably yeah and again the San Antonio like spectre hangs over all of this right and that’s why Houston would not have a lot of leverage in a Giannis deal is because like that that leverage is pretty real to me like what what if I told you that okay Houston moved Alperin amen in number 10 they use number 10 to trade to New Orleans in order to get both of the picks back to send to Milwaukee milwaukee ends up with a men operating in both of their picks for the next two years i mean that’s a pretty amazing deal for Milwaukee for Milwaukee yeah in Houston again like Fred Jaylen Dylan Giannis Steven Adams Jabari Smith Tar Een Reed Shepard Cam Whitmore you know Aaron Holidayiday like we think that team is right in the contention window and like right in the picture right yeah i mean I think what I have to keep reminding myself is we’re talking about a top three player in the league you you know correct i like that’s cuz he pretty much makes he makes almost any team that’s healthy and has built out their roster a contender um [Music] Yeah and you keep all the future picks like you said yeah yeah because I actually I actually wonder if they don’t go make some other moves to build it out but totally yeah but like I say all of this to say and look like we can close the loop here on this for the Rockets with Giannis like if I am the Rockets and I am making a Giannis move I want instead of like piece mealing the value together and like putting together a bunch of like assets together to try and get to the value i want to put together a smaller deal where the asset values are tied up heavily in singular assets sure right and again I don’t even know that I’m like totally advocating for trade like it I don’t know that I would move a men in Alpine for Giannis if that was the if that was the offer right i I I think that is like a wild it’s a wild deal on some level but I think that if they’re going down the Giannis road it makes more sense for them to tie the val the trade value going back to Milwaukee into like singular assets in order to allow them to continue to have depth and if I’m a Rockets fan and I just don’t want to move a man in Alpirin for Giannis like I totally get that that’s totally fair i think it’s a reasonable statement to make you’re not going to hear me argue or fight about it also I will just note all of this requires Giannis to want to move and there we don’t know if that’s going to happen we have no indication yet if that’s actually going to be reality so the other guy here is Kevin Durant i mean we kind of talked about that on the Phoenix one i think that we kind of came up with the idea of it being like the only way that this really works for us is if it’s like Jaylen Green Jock Londale Aaron Holiday and like number 10 and you do this like a month after the draft and after number 10 signs and then his salary would count in the deal so thus you could do that deal financially and I I think both of we kind of landed on the same thing in terms of you know it’s not a long-term solution but it opens the window and you’re only acquiring Durant if it’s not taking away from any sort of flexibility moving forward or like any of the young guys you really really like you just hey we’re ready to start winning now with a men with Shingun with Jabari Tar you know what Reed and so we’ll bring in Durant to be the number one option knowing it’s only going to be a couple year solution but we want to open the window he’ll come off our books after a year or two or what a depending on what Durant wants in terms of a deal and is going to demand there and then we’ll revisit this number one option thing two years from now but at least we get to start trying to win competing for championships now as it looks like some of these guys are ready to start doing that yes I think that’s right uh I would want to keep this as open and flexible as possible if I’m moving for Durant and I don’t want to give up crazy assets and if they’re not willing to play ball because we have all their picks or we have multiple of their picks and they want all the picks back cool i’m happy keeping the picks yeah we’ll because look here’s the deal and this is where we can kind of finish you know look at number 10 maybe we’ll do this at number 10 like the names we like are Colin Murray Boils Carter Bryant um you know like if Conniple was to fall there like Jesus that would be like the best possible option but I don’t see that happening what about common where we’ve talked about backup center stuff if he fell sure I’m open to that i would say Derek yeah queen maybe not as much because the defense or less open to that because if I have Alperin I want a counter to Alpirin agreed um more importantly and I don’t think queen is really a counter to Alpirin i would agree with that i don’t really think it’s worth them trading up is what I would say like I I don’t think that should really be in the cards i I think the guys that like you can track for them are like maybe Casperis too like I would hear out a Casperis argument but like it’d be like Casperis Colin Murray Boils Carter Bryant i mean maybe coward but like I don’t I don’t know something about I don’t know why that doesn’t totally stick for me with them at number 10 but it for some reason it just doesn’t totally maybe Malawatch maybe Sorber but that feels aggressive to me cmbb is the name we’ve really liked here because of the defense and how much EA would love his defense i think that’s right and honestly like could be a weird counter at the center position to Alberin on top of being able to play like the four too yeah so interesting number 10 pick but I say all this to say and this is where I want to close it cuz we’ve gone for an hour on the Rockets and I told you before we started I was worried about this one because I knew that they had so many different options on the table that like it was going to take forever to sort through it all so complete transparency peak behind the curtains we record these in batches of normally three at times we’ve done four and for this one whenever we recorded it we strategically picked a night where we were only going to record two because we knew this one was going to take a while that’s correct we’re kind of going down all of these roads all of these rabbit holes with Houston i think it is very plausible i wouldn’t I don’t know if it’s likely but like I would say it’s entirely plausible that they just run this back sure and I I think it wouldn’t be crazy for them to run this back by any stretch of the imagination they just won 52 games they have an incredibly young team they have an incredibly exciting team all of these guys are still getting better like game after game day after day they’re developing like crazy i think there is like some real merit to them just running this back and seeing what these kids look like again another year of development another year of consistency another year of togetherness and like playing together right sure building that chemistry building that positive momentum organizationally forward look at what Oklahoma City is doing like very possible that you can do this i don’t know if it would be the route that I would go down i do think that like the only two stars that I see available that I would like really go for probably are Durant and uh Giannis i will say this like if Trey Murphy’s available for some ungodly reason by the Pelicans like I swear I was about to ask you but I was like this is going to take us another eight minutes to hash out so I was going to leave it alone but it definitely popped into my head yeah like he’s just a perfect fit for what they need particularly so like I would give up real asset value for him if that was to happen and like look there are probably some younger guys that were not expecting that could be on the market that like maybe you know because the Rockets have so many assets that if they wanted to overpay for one guy that they just believe in more than anybody else in the league look at the way that these two finals contenders have been built oklahoma City with their trade for Shay Gildas Alexander Pacers with their trade for Tyresese Hallebertton right those two teams believed in those players and their evaluation in those players more than everybody else and they went for it right so those options are on the table too but those are ones that like we just can’t spend time sorting through if they want to run this back I’m completely open to that and I think that’s a completely rational decision here i would probably try to move Jaylen Green but I’m not a Jaylen Green fan really and that’s fine like I’m sure Rockets fans are annoyed after the playoffs as well like if I could move him I would move him and I would try and figure out like how to find offense elsewhere but if they want to run it back with like everybody including Jaylen even it’s a normal decision to me sure because they were really good this year they clearly are building something in like it’s a it’s fine to me you have good veteran leadership if you bring back Stephen Adams you have the center position like completely locked down you have all of the wings in the world you have number 10 you have a ton of picks coming forward i feel okay about this situ like I feel great about where the Rockets are at yeah i I think I started saying you want to keep pushing it forward and that was more so me just like you know we talked about how much we like these young guys and how good they were last year like I just don’t want them to take a step back but with that said like if they run it back I don’t think they’re taking a step back like I think because they are young a younger team that you know theoretically pract um individually um I would be okay with it as well i just I guess my point was I do think they’re in a position right now where if they went for it I would understand because I I have seen how successful they’ve been so I would be okay if they did decide to go for it where some teams that took a step forward this past season and have Youngtown on the roster I would want them to put pause on going all in until they get some more information houston I would be more okay if they did want to even though I do understand if they want another 50 games of data collection from some of this roster what is or is not Reed Shepard um is there another step from Jabari or is a men all of a sudden gonna be top 15 you know sooner than we think or you know what I mean or is he not because those are important information as well if if you find out like you know what after another year it doesn’t look like he’s going to quite hit that threshold so now we know um so I’m kind of okay with any of the paths they take but I do want them to at least explore the aggressive a p path and if the money doesn’t hit right or the the value doesn’t hit right then run it back and see what happens like that’s what’s nice for them is they have all of these options and I don’t think that they should feel rushed into either any of the decisions completely agree Bryce tell the people where they can find your work tell the people what’s going on motor City Hoops on Twitter on Blue got the Scub Stack uh the Pistons Pulse podcast otherwise the Game Theory podcast with Zam the Sam Vassini rockets fans you should absolutely love us cuz we spent like 15 more minutes on your team than anybody else so even if you don’t like what we said appreciate our dedication and love to your Houston Rockets and then go tell a friend about it to watch um the Pistons fans have watched almost 9,000 views i challenge you to beat that in terms of views Rockets fans i know there’s a little healthy competition there and for what it’s worth that’s just on YouTube the I haven’t looked on YouTube stats on the podcast feed yet but yeah um blue sigh and scubstack is where we went on that one for you Bryce i know i was like is it close enough no okay I don’t care we’ve been That’s how you know we’ve been podcasting too long today uh yeah you guys think we we the Go look at the Suns timestamp we recorded this one in pairing with the Suns so that’s how long we have been recording go to the Athletic keep me employed over there the draft guide will be up uh potentially by the time this is up we’ll see kind of what the order is that we put all of these things up in yeah that’s all we got uh thank you all for hanging out thank you all for subscribing thank you all for listening go hit the like button hit the subscribe button over on the podcast feed we appreciate you all immensely until next time we’ll talk soon bye

In this Game Theory offseason preview, Sam Vecenie is joined by Bryce Simon discuss the future of the Houston Rockets.

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Sam Vecenie, a Senior NBA Writer at The Athletic, talks all about basketball. From the NBA, to the NBA Draft, to college hoops and even some high school, Vecenie has you covered in this show.