Rockets GAMBLE Future On Kevin Durant Chase | Jalen Green OR Jabari Smith Jr. Trade INEVITABLE?

Rockets GAMBLE Future On Kevin Durant Chase | Jalen Green OR Jabari Smith Jr. Trade INEVITABLE?

on today’s show where do the Houston Rockets stand in the Kevin Durant trade saga and is now the wrong time to try to move on from Jaylen Green it’s all coming up right here at Locked on Rockets this is mission control Houston ignition sequence start 6 5 4 3 2 1 what’s up and welcome to another edition of Locked on Rockets your daily podcast home for everything Houston Rockets basketball as always I’m your host Jackson Gatlin native Houstononian and credentialed media member i’m also the host of Locked on NBA Thursdays be sure to follow along wherever you listen to your podcast or on YouTube just search Locked on Rockets where the best way you can help us grow our show is to listen every single day on a podcast platform of your choosing and then like comment subscribe on YouTube now today’s episode is brought to you by Game Time and download the Game Time app create an account and use code locked on NBA for $20 off your first purchase and as always thanks so much for making Locked on Rockets part of your day every single day whether it’s on your way to work on your lunch break in the gym thank you so much for being an everydayer and joining us now is your weekly co-host the Podfather himself Rockets Wire editor and host of the Logger Line podcast Ben Dubose you can track down on Blue Sky Ben Dubose happy early birthday Ben we’re a couple of Gemini boys here got your birthday i actually if you’re listening to this podcast it’s probably Ben’s birthday already um and then I got mine in a few days so happy early birthday man uh how are you doing and how are you feeling about this whole KD situation doing well and I’m counting on Rafel Stone to get me Kevin Durant a future Hall of Famer for my birthday is that too much to ask honestly no low bar like that’s a pretty that’s a pretty easily obtainable birthday present given the state of current affairs between the Rockets and Suns and uh all the rumors and reporting surrounding these two teams so let’s start right there but we’re going to get into a little bit of some of the specifics in our last episode we kind of presented the the most likely trade package scenarios for the Rockets as it pertains to what what it would take for them to accomplish a KD trade we’re going to dig into those uh scenarios a little bit further in today’s episode which trade package would we ideally prefer the Rockets send out for KD um but let’s start with just kind of your general overview of this you know KD trade saga Ben yeah I think the Rockets are in a good spot i think it’s pretty clear based on the leaks in recent days that Phoenix is trying to drum up a bidding war that to this point doesn’t exist i’m so tired of the storyline of oh Phoenix doesn’t have to abide by his list no one is saying and I can’t believe this is still a story line after you know decades of leverage NBA trades no one is saying that because Kevin Durant presented the Suns a list of Houston Miami and San Antonio that the Suns are going to say “Oh that’s sweet.” and trade him to one of those three teams just because Kevin asked that is not how it works the Suns do not necessarily want to abide by that list the problem is they may have to because especially with one year left on his contract that’s going to discourage offers from other teams around the league who could you who could lose him in a year with no compensation even a fit that could be as clean as the Minnesota Timberwolves they’re going to be reluctant to throw in a very recent defensive player of the year as a centerpiece of that offer in Rudy Gobear if they think KD could leave them in a year and walk and if that’s what he’s telling them would be his plan to do and I’m tired of folks not understanding how the list works i’m tired of folks acting like that perhaps KD should feel sorry for the Suns and do them a favor and expand his list no what the Suns should have done is trade him at the trade deadline they should have worked with him to get a destination that he’d be on board with you know they tried to send him to Golden State and he wasn’t on board with that so it got nixed he was not involved in the process because if you wait until a year prior to free agency that makes it all the more likely that the star is going to get sent to someone on his list because no one’s going to want just one year of the player and then potentially he could walk for no compensation you can’t even trade the guy if it looks like that it’s not going to be salvageable long term so no we shouldn’t feel sorry for the Suns because they had every opportunity to trade him at the trade deadline their season was already off the rails they chose not to so I think that list is pretty strong now I don’t feel super strong that the Rockets are going to get him because while I don’t think the Rockets offer is clearly worse than the other teams on the list I don’t think it’s necessarily all that much better either especially compared to Miami which may have a greater incentive to be desperate the Rockets 52 and 30 a lot of young players there’s a better case for the Rockets to stay the course than there is for Pat Riley and the Miami Heat they might be incentivized to push their chips in a little bit more so while I’m not saying that the Rockets are necessarily going to land KD I do think that the list factor is pretty strong at this point in time unless Minnesota or some other team can get KD convince him to expand his list and amongst the offers that we’ve seen and the leaks that are coming out of Phoenix I think an offer from the Rockets that involves you know either Jaylen Green and Pick 10 or Dylan Brooks Jabari Smith and P 10 is at least competitive i do worry a little bit that if the Rockets aren’t including those future Phoenix picks and the offers are close there could be some hard feelings on the Phoenix side to where their ownership is thinking hey Houston’s not playing ball if the offers are close let’s send them to the East let’s send him some team and middle finger Houston just because if we’re not going to get a lot let’s take the poo poo platter that’s not from Rafel Stone and Tilman Patita i worry about that a little bit so no I’m not counting my chickens before they hatch but I think the Rockets are in a relatively good position right now when you look at their level of interest and you look at the reports out of Phoenix which to me Jackson feel like a an organization that’s getting increasingly desperate oh absolutely and and all signs are pointing towards the fact that I I feel like we’re going to have a resolution with this Kevin Durant trade saga before the NBA draft all signs are kind of pointing towards that direction that the Suns want to have some type of conclusion to this saga before draft night hits because that way if they do if they are able to walk away with some uh draft capital you know in this year’s draft they’re able to actually make the selections themselves as opposed to having to you know just settle for whatever picks another team made because you know if it takes after the it’s it’s just kind of a messy situation the other thing that’s really telling on this that I would jump in real quick the fact that the Suns have still not leaked any possibility of them keeping KD to me that’s telling that even with all these reports that they don’t like the offers and clearly they’re trying to get a bidding war started they still have not even leaked the possibility of oh well we could theoretically run it back next year and bring KD to training camp the fact that they’re not even leaking that as a possibility or at least not yet should tell you how pot committed they are to making a Kevin Durant deal and if a deal happens soon if it happens before the draft for the reasons you laid out the Rocket should be in at least a decent position you know and and I think I love that you highlighted this because I think it is really so important that people aren’t realizing just how important Katie’s voice is in this with that short list of of potential teams because you know as it stands you know the Suns are sitting there on pins and needles hoping that he expands his his preferred list to include the Timberwolves because at least at this point the Timberwolves offer of Rudy Goar and Dante Dvenzo which is kind of the reported offer um you know that they’ve put out on the table at least that keeps the Suns at least pseudo competitive in the here and now um but KD has a lot of power in this situation more so than I think people really realize and I do wonder just how important his voice is going to be in ultimately deciding you know there yes there’s this short list and it’s Spurs Rockets are kind of leading the pack miami’s in the mix there as well um but so there’s so many of these factors at play right what what offers are being compared to one another you know Houston’s offer to to the San Antonio offer to Miamiy’s offer but I think the biggest potential element here is is KD where if he really looks at you know if the Suns are trying to squeeze more out of San Antonio and this is the big one is you know KD doesn’t want to get sent to a team that has to gut the roster to be able to add him and that’s the big element that I think people are forgetting and at least as far as the Rockets are concerned right that’s why it feels like Refell Stone’s playing this incredibly smart not willing to put up more than the absolute bare minimum at this point because it kind of feels like KD is is pushing his way towards at least one of Houston or one of these other two teams but it you know gun to my head I got to say that KD would probably want to be in Houston the most of any of these teams because it gives him I think the best chance at winning a title i would think so and another thing that I think people are conveniently forgetting about the non-list comparisons that get thrown out there most notably Kawhi Leonard in 2018 from San Antonio to Toronto the Raptors in 2018 were low-key loaded jackson go back and look at that eventual championship Raptors team aside from Kawaii you had Pascal Seakum you had OG Anobi you had Sergey Ibaka and Danny Green still close to their primes you had Fred Van Fleet coming onto the scene i believe they traded for Marc Gasol that season that was a loaded roster norman Powell was in the mix there’s guys I’m forgetting and the previous season they were 59 and 23 number one in the East so you were taking a 59 and 23 team number one in the East and basically running it back but with Kawhi Leonard in place of Demar D Rozan that was a ready-made contender and so it made sense for them to push their chips to the table because they knew especially in a market like Toronto you have limited opportunities to win it all it made sense for Toronto to take that risk because they were so close to the title who of these non-list suitors like Toronto this year for example they are nowhere near as strong not even close in 2025 to Toronto in 2018 even the Minnesota Timberwolves Jackson the Minnesota Timberwolves won 49 games this year are you really telling me that a 49 win Minnesota team if you hypothetically swap out Rudy and Dante for KD is going to go to the top tier of title contenders next year i’m not and so that is what makes it a little less likely assuming KD holds strong now that’s going to be the test because you know the longer this drags out and maybe the Suns start leaking hey we don’t have to trade you at all maybe KD backs off a little bit maybe Anthony Edwards places a call although I heard from Mark Spears today that apparently he’s not planning to so hopefully that all holds but if KD stays strong with the list the other reason why I feel it’s you know pretty advantageous to the Rockets I don’t see a team amongst these non-list suitors that is anywhere close to the Raptors in 2018 that’s what all the Phoenix media throws out as a hypothetical of oh it doesn’t have to be a team on the list cuz look at the Raptors winning a title in 2019 with Kawawaii on this same one-year scenario i don’t see a team that’s anywhere close to the 2018 Raptors that’s in position to uh make a deal here coming up we’ll dive into the possible trade options for the Houston Rockets which trade package makes the most sense for the Rockets to utilize to try and grab Kevin Durant we’re going to get there in just one moment first today’s episode is brought to you by Game Time look the NFL schedule release just dropped and you better believe I’m already looking at my fall calendar and picking which games to hit i got to go catch the Texans and CJ Strad in person this season and Game Time makes scoring NFL tickets just so simple so easy you’ll find great seats for as low as $100 thanks to exclusive discounts and with Game Time Guarantee your tickets are 100% authentic will arrive on time and you’ll always get the best price possible with fees included so you know exactly what you’re 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KD acquisition for the Rockets and I know that you did a similar breakdown over at Rocketswire so there’s a few different pathways a few different options here for the Rockets to go although it kind of seems like it what it really boils down to is you know one of two main assets going back to Phoenix and that being one of you know Jaylen Green being kind of package one with package two being one you know Dylan Brooks and then one of Jabari Smith Jr or and to a much lesser degree Reed Shepard although we know that internally the organization’s very high on Reed Shepard and you know they haven’t really gotten any much of a glimpse at him yet i I feel like I feel pretty strongly in saying that that I doubt that they would include him as like the the extra piece the salary matching component what have you um even as like the upside prospect component for Phoenix to look at in a trade simply because the Rockets really like Reed and they want to give him a chance to see if he can be the guy that they think he can be after selecting him number three overall now that’s not to say that they wouldn’t like completely wouldn’t put him in a trade but I just find it increasingly unlikely so the two kind of options here right are a Jaylen Greenleled trade package which it could be right Jaylen plus some salary filler um it wouldn’t necessarily have to be Dylan Brooks but you could also factor in Jaylen and Dylan Brooks as that first trade um and then the secondary one right Dylan Brooks Jabari Smith Jr and salary filler in order to get KD and then that’s where you start looking at maybe sprinkling in you know having to include that number 10 overall pick or maybe Cam Whitmore as a bit of a sweetener on a deal in order to beat out you know one or two of these other offers at this current stage which way would you lean if you the forgetting about the draft capital and the extra potential components adding in there just looking at the barebones framework of those two deals if it’s like the Jaylen package or the Jabari package which way are you leaning right now yeah so first off to close the loop on our initial segment I was listing out all those great 2018 Raptors actually forgot about Rockets legend Kyle Lowry who was a borderline all-star at that time so shout out to Kyle point is the Raptors were a loaded team back then i don’t see a rival on the KD market now that’s anywhere close to that now as far as the packages yeah I think those honestly are what’s being discussed right now amongst the Phoenix Suns and to a lesser extent the Rockets although according to Kelly Eco it seems that Houston’s offer is firm we just don’t know specifically what that is yeah I’m assuming Thompson and alloon are totally off the table for a 36-year-old soon to be 37 KD and I’ve been told pretty strongly that Fred Benfleet would not be a part of these discussions simply because if the Rockets don’t have Fred they don’t think they are good enough for a win now move to be worth it so with Fred it could work financially it’s just as the Rockets see it you could make a value case to move Fred for KD they’re certainly not saying that they think that Fred is better than KD what they’re saying is that if you add KD but you subtract Fred they don’t think they’re good enough to be in that you know at least quasi contender range next year and if they aren’t then it defeats the purpose to make a trade for a guy who’s going to be 37 years old when the season starts in the fall i’ve gone back and forth i actually and you could make arguments both ways so my main criteria I would like it to be just one inner young tier guy or inner young core guy excuse me that’s not um that’s not a men or shening obviously so I would prefer it not to be two guys of your young core because the Rockets do have a luxury with how deep they are with young prospects that even if KD doesn’t fully work out and you lose one of these young guys well look it would sting to lose a Jaylen Green but you have other wings or guards like Reed Shepard like Cam Whitmore who might flourish given a bigger role similarly you lose Jabari well you can scale up Tari E’s minutes you can um play Cam Whitmore at forward maybe you keep pick 10 that’s the one scenario i I don’t think I would do it but if you could if you could keep pick 10 and you trade both Jaylen and Jabari and then you basically draft your Jabari replacement at 10 reset the contract clock too going back three years and you bring in a forward there should be several guys available at 10 who theoretically could replace Jabari in your longerterm blueprint carter Bryant yeah that’s one i don’t know that I would do it coward shoot a coward there you go i was about to say the line Ben that’s I don’t think I would do it that’s the one scenario where I’d think of giving up two of the you know the inner young core guys the inner tier let’s say um but generally I would prefer to give up one because I think the Rockets with this core seven have enough luxury that if you lose one of those young guys and even if the KD trade ultimately goes bust or somewhat goes bust which is a risk at his age and with his mileage then I think they have enough insulation they have enough depth and they have enough future picks that you can overcome it assuming the player you lose is not Amen Thompson or Alpar and Shenon who I think are largely irreplaceable because they’ve shown you so much already i think I would be in the minority but Jackson even if it cost you Dylan Brooks which it would from a salary perspective to make the math work I think I would lose Jabari before I would lose Jaylen simply because even though it’s I wouldn’t consider it likely I see a greater path to Jaylen becoming a star to Jaylen having a higher ceiling than Jabari does and if there’s one thing the Rockets have shown us it’s that they can fill out rotation their rotation with quality depth up and down the roster so if we’re talking about replacing a Dylan Brooks or replacing a Jabari Smith Jr I trust Rafel Stone to get creative look at how he brought in Steven Adams you know just two second run picks got him when he was hurt and now he’s a mainstay for the foreseeable future i trust their ability to find the depth pieces especially with how many picks they have moving forward it’s the high-end talent that’s the hard part of this equation and even if Jaylen underwhelmed in the playoffs I do still think the high-end talent with Jaylen is greater than it is with Jabari so for the same reasons you would bring in KD because you’re getting you know potentially an A1 at least a short-term A1 it’s harder to get the highlevel talent the elite talent i would heir on the side of keeping Jaylen even if it cost you Dylan and Jabari i just think it’s easier to replace guys like Dylan Jabari not saying that you know you wouldn’t feel their absence you would it’s just I trust Rafel Stone when it comes to filling out let’s say you know spots 5 through 12 on a contending roster it’s filling out one through four those true topof the line guys that’s where it gets more difficult and so gun to my head if I had to pick between Jaylen and Jabari I would lean Jaylen and that’s not necessarily me saying that Jaylen’s a clearly superior player it’s me saying that I think there’s more upside potential with Jaylen he might not hit it but the fact that that ceiling is there makes me a little more reluctant to include him you know there’s a couple interesting wrinkles there um first off I think we’ve used the ter I think we’ve used the analogy gun to my head three times so far in this podcast we should stop doing that i I did it because you did it and then you did it again so we need to stop this is getting repetitive but um as is all this KD discussion uh with that I I want to say first off I think the angle of factoring in Jabari’s impending contract extension is one to absolutely consider because look even if the Rockets decide to kick the can down the road and say you know what we’re comfortable letting you and Tari potentially just hit restricted free agency next summer there’s going to be a team out there that probably rolls along and wants to offer Jabari 20 maybe 25 million a year um and then at that point if you’re the Rockets do you really feel comfortable matching Jabari at 20 or 25 million a year when you know that you’re going to have to pay like you’re already paying Shingut you know you’re going to have to pay a Min Thompson a rookie scale max down the line you know that at least all signs are pointing towards the fact that they’re probably going to renegotiate at least hopefully a team favor a team friendly deal with Fred Van Vleet but you’re going to be paying Fred right to to you know still run the ship for the next next few years more than likely um at some point the tax implications are going to become very very real for this team especially when you start to factor in if they were to make a move for KD and then plan on inking him to that 2-year $120 million extension which is kind of the expectation for any team that’s on his short list of preferred destinations that extension will be signed the moment he lands with whatever team that he’s planning to stay with for the foreseeable future so there’s a lot of salary implications that could be factored into the idea of maybe it makes a little bit more sense to move on from Jabari like you said and resetting the clock potentially with that 10th overall pick which is why I’m actually coming into this I thought I was going to be more in favor of the Jaylen Green package just Jaylen Dylan call it a day or Jaylen and some filler call it a day um now I don’t So remind me really quickly financially does Jaylen and filler work or does it have to be Jaylen and Dylan i thought it had to be Jaylen and Dylan for No it doesn’t you can do Jaylen um Jock Aaron it that might be enough but I don’t think it is i’ like You’re so close you’re so close Jackson you You’d be like within 2 million so you could wait until you know you could sign the draft pick and do the deal later in the off season you could uh sign a trade so like so like so like agree so agree in principle to the trade and then sign the sign the 10th overall pick which the 10th overall pickion though even Nate Williams might be enough like the point is Jaylen Jock and Holiday or Dylan Jabari Jock and Holiday would be so close that even if it doesn’t get you over the threshold you’d be so close we’re talking like a million or two that it would be very easy to overcome so I think just for purposes of our discussion it’s easier to sort of break it down into Jaylen versus Dylan and Jabari the other point that I wanted to raise real quick about Can I just Can I just because I wanted to finish that off really quick is just I like the idea of if you have to get rid of Jabari I like the idea of retaining that 10th overall pick to draft your kind of Jabari replacement and I think that’s the area where you start to get into like okay well if Phoenix is demanding draft capital I’d almost be more inclined to include that first that that that 2027 first further down the line instead of the 10 right here because that 10 right here could turn into a really good upside 3 and D guy like uh Carter Bryant like Cedric Coward right out of the gate a guy that you can kind of groom into that role especially in the version where if you’re able to keep Dylan on top of that potentially like I I don’t know that’s that’s that’s a very interesting outcome to me and maybe you can get some very light protections if you give up the 27 maybe you can get like top four protections something like that in in case you get really really lucky that’s something that you know Gerald my always tried to put whenever he could on his um deals to protect the super high-end outcomes the other point that I would raise on the contracts so beyond the extension uncertainty with Jabari which is a very real factor I also think you’d be selling low on Jaylen now when I say I’m preferring to keep Jaylen that’s not me saying “Oh I’m you know all in on Jaylen Green making the All-Star leap thing.” Wait wait wait i don’t want I don’t want you to jump the gun on this this was going to be my final segment i wanted to tee this up i want I want you to be able to make the case for keeping Jaylen is what I want and I’ll get to that in a minute but one thing I’ll say to close the contractual loop okay okay if things don’t go well next season with Jaylen I don’t think his market value would be any worse next off season than it is now and in fact it it actually might be better because his deal would be almost up one year and then I guess the player option but the point is two years at the most as opposed to now there’s sort of this cloud over him coming off the Warrior series and the deal is just starting so I sort of look at it both ways in that if he goes out and has a very good year next year then obviously that’s going to bolster his value but then if he doesn’t at least the contract is closer to its expiration and so I think at a bare minimum it would be comparable value to to now in my opinion selling Jaylen Green right now at the start of this new contract and coming off the Warrior series it sort of feels like selling low so I just don’t see a ton of risk at least from an asset standpoint and waiting now you can certainly argue and we’ll do that in a few minutes in the third segment you can certainly argue about the basketball merits of it but in terms of the contract the asset I see only downside to forcing a Jaylen Green trade now and potentially a lot of upside if he goes out and plays better next year or even if he doesn’t just simply the contract being closer to its expiration no Ben we’re going to argue about the contract too because now you’ve got me you got me all you got me all riled up here all right coming up the case for keeping Jaylen Green we’re going to get there in just one moment first today’s episode is brought to you by Lollipop look Lollipop is a new kind of soda made for people who love the classic taste of soda but want something that actually supports their health with just 2 to 5 g of sugar and 9 g of prebiotic fiber in every can Lollipop is reimagining soda in a way that’s better for your gut traditional sodas are just jam-packed loaded with sugar like 39 g in a regular Coke or 44 gram in an orange Fanta lollipop flips that script with just a fraction of the sugar no artificial sweeteners and gut- friendly ingredients like Olly Smart a blend shown to support digestive and overall health it’s soda that tastes like the real thing but actually does something good for your body look I’m a total soda fiend i have been for most of my life dr peppers Cokes all that stuff i am so happy that I found Lollipop and I’ve got the the vintage cola flavor on me right now this is easily my favorite one although the crisp apple one is really really good too if I want like a change of pace something that’s not quite soda but a little bit more on the lighter end of like the soda spectrum and they’re delicious they taste like the real thing and they’re actually good for you which is the absolute best part so get a free can of Lollipop just buy any two cans in store and they’ll reimburse you for one head to drink lollipop.com/lockedonba to claim your free can and find lollipop near you give them a chance they really are delicious they’re good for you they’re great replacements for traditional soda that’s drinkallipop.com/lockedonba and final segment here at lockedonrockets your daily podcast home for everything Houston Rockets basketball all right Ben I we’re going to get into this the basketball side of things for a second but I’m going to push back pretty hard on your point that you just made right now about about selling low on Jaylen Green right now because here’s my biggest worry and this is the thing that I want I want every person who’s like preaching and begging for continuity keep the core don’t make any changes run it back all that stuff right we saw Jaylen Green get flatout exposed against this Warriors defense and you can have Eay you can have Ud you can have Rafel I was going to say Eay and Udoka but whatever two separate people like like Tony Brothers um uh or or Mike Dan and Tony uh anyways so you can have them say you know oh take it as a badge of respect and they took Jaylen out of the series all this stuff but the reality of the situation is you know Jaylen struggled against the Warriors flat out he’ll be one of the first guys to tell you that that that that happened the Warriors shut Jaylen Green out of a series for basically five or six out of the seven games my biggest worry is that they ro they roll through next season still have a lot of regular season success right still you know same similar team identity you know offense is propped up on offensive rebounding all that good stuff they get to the playoffs again and if Jaylen Green lays another egg in the playoffs if he struggles against another team in the postseason and the Rockets flame out in the first round or maybe even make it past but but if he does not have good postseason numbers for a second postseason trip in a row at that point the the the idea of like oh this Jaylen might still have potential or maybe a change of scenery will do him wonders or maybe the Rockets just aren’t utilizing the right way all of that goes out the window and at that point he is a two guard making 33 million a year for the for the next two years that has failed to perform in the playoffs in back-to-back postseasons that is not that is a lower low than what he’s on right now and so I I I argue that it is easier to trade him right now to a team that still might believe in his upside hell even the Suns don’t really want him right there’s the report coming out of Phoenix that if they do get Jaylen they’re looking at rerouting him to a third team because that’s my point i just don’t think the value is there right now coming off that playoff series and and the contract being as many as three years i think there is so much uncertainty right now that you’re not going to get the value that you want from a Houston perspective so I just personally don’t see it getting that that much worse i could be wrong but I just don’t think the value is there right now i think the difference is you think that he has a chance to recoup some of his value and get back to a place where you could theoretically trade him for more value whereas I think his value can go substantially lower than what it’s at right now but my my worry in your scenario is also if Jaylen starts to improve his stock to where you would think oh you could get more value for him now i would worry that the Rockets then would think oh no he’s turned it around don’t trade him right and then you talk yourself into keeping him and then it becomes like a fool’s gold situation again where you’re like oh great he’s great again or he looks awesome in the regular season and then you make it to the playoffs you skip next year’s trade deadline and you’re disappointed again in the postseason so that’s where you and I I think differ in in how we kind of view the potential outcomes here for the Jaylen Green situation at least contractually and kind of what the timeline will look like but from a from a basketball perspective Ben what’s hit me with your argument because I’ve been one of Jaylen Green’s largest like detractors right like I’m I’m a little I’m a little out on him at this point with the performance in the playoffs the inconsistency i I understand and I I have acknowledged repeatedly the growth that he has shown as a defender as a playmaker the that he has become more consistent but there’s a level of like his role on this Rockets team regardless of what Rafll says about this team being a a a more team oriented team this team’s identity needs him to be the lead guard dropping a night on efficiency and it becomes even more apparent for him and LP are kicking in the going’s about to get tough like the money is there like it’s time to put up or shut up and I just don’t I don’t see it okay so let’s start with the playoffs sure it’s certainly a data point that you keep in mind there are certainly some guys that are playoff risers or the reverse you know Fred is a classic example fred Venfleet of a guy who I think is clearly a playoff riser and we saw that this year but we already knew that from years and numerous series of that happening with the Toronto Raptors we saw it in the 2019 NBA Finals so one series one matchup there are plenty of guys even playoff risers that have had a bad series here or there especially early in their careers so you keep the data point in mind and then if he stacks other bad playoff performances on top of it to your point Jackson then yeah at that point you do have to consider that oh does does something about the playoffs expose the holes in Jaylen Green’s game more that can become a story line but for now when the sample is literally seven games I’m inclined to say it’s too small to take anything from it’s annoying you keep it in the back of your mind but it is just seven games it is just one matchup now as far as the regular season so I think we can agree toss out the final three games because Oh yeah no I I I will I will say just to like to to dunk on the people who are like very clearly like just anti-Jaylen Green like completely right people who post like the screenshot of like the playoff stats and then like the final three regular season games that’s a disingenuous argument because cardio to keep the literally just Yes exactly that that part’s ridiculous and I and I’ve and I’ve debunked that like that’s stupid so So take out the final three games if we ignore those pretend like they didn’t exist the final 60 games of his season 60 games he averaged just under 23 points five rebounds four assists per game at 22 23 years old shot 44% overall above 37% on threes true shooting percentage a little above 56 those aren’t star numbers but they aren’t far away like if you bump that up even a little bit to say 24 25 points per game on 58% true shooting he’s potentially an all-star next year now I’m not saying I expect that to happen but he’s close enough and that’s a sample of 60 games nearly the entire season after he got off to that bad start in which he was playing at a very high level so he’s close enough not saying he’s going to get there the consistency issues are real but he’s close enough and that’s not you know picking and choosing that’s the the final 60 games all of it he’s close enough to where I’m intrigued to play this out a little bit longer now that’s the the upside view the downside view because of his archetype as a player the bar is very high for him to be an efficient scorer because if he’s not then he’s just not providing enough value in other ways is like the defense has gotten better but he’s not going to be you know a dynamic defensive player he’s not going to be anywhere near a men Thompson so the the defense has gotten passable but I don’t think anyone would look at Jaylen Green and say “Wow that’s a dynamic defender.” The three-point shooting has gotten better but he’s not a marksman by any means he’s not an elite playmaker he’s not a great foul drawer so he’s so while he’s close to where you can say hey you tick up you know the efficiency metrics the points just by a couple and he’s maybe an all-star at the same time he almost has to get there in order for him to be a good starter on a contender otherwise he’s just not providing you enough value in the other areas and that’s just I and that’s where the six-man discussions come into play for for sure and this is where I think it gets lost in translation is that Like at no point nobody at least nobody making these good faith arguments right nobody’s saying that Jaylen is a bad player i think that’s the issue here is I think that he might just not be equipped for the role that he’s ultimately going to have to be able to fill for this Rockets team to re Yeah the archetype right he’s going to have to hit a certain threshold of efficiency and points per game and and yes he’s like he’s close but there are certain drawbacks right and you you just went you ran through the different you know his different skill sets right he’s not really elite at any one thing he’s an elite athlete right who’s very good at a few different categories but hasn’t really broken right has struggled with the consistency has struggled with his efficiency isn’t isn’t particularly elite at any one skill on the floor outside of like his ability to you know self-create at times but that’s entirely dependent on whether or not his shots going in and it’s been wildly inconsistent unfortunately and and we saw it become exposed in the playoffs against the Warriors where it wasn’t even it wasn’t even a case of oh he’s being constantly doubleteamed it was he he he couldn’t beat Steph Curry and Buddy Heel and Brandon Pajinsky in isolation like that should have been the bar the the bare minimum for a player of his archetype should be to be able to cook those three defenders pretty routinely in a playoff series in order to put some points on the board in the glass half full argument the lowhanging fruit is so lowhanging he has almost zero game that’s not free throws or layups at this point the midi game he has almost deserted it altogether the metrics are terrible and I think more than anything that’s what happened against the Warriors they made it tougher for him to get off the step back threes and he wasn’t quite as efficient at making them and then Draymond Green is great at going vertical without fouling or I guess you can make the argument that he is fouling but he’s not you know he’s not getting called for it but regardless that tends to happen in the playoffs no matter what especially if it’s Steve Ker and the Warriors so the lowhanging fruit for Jaylen and in theory it’s achievable if he can add some sort of mid-range game or a floater game you know I don’t think it’s that dissimilar to James Harden who after his first couple of years in Houston he needed that in between game and he came back that off season and worked on the floater and it transformed his game now some people will hear that and say “Well wasn’t Jaylen way better before that than Jaylen is now?” Yeah but that’s because James had so many other parts of his skill set the you know the playmaking the drawing fouls like Jaylen is just not that type of player so James was starting from a higher floor but even for James to get to his level he had to get some sort of in between game to make defenders account for more real estate and for him that was the floater maybe it’s that for Jaylen maybe it’s the midi but what I saw against Golden State Jackson is that they just did not have to account for the in between areas they played him to step back from three and they played him to drive to the rim they did not account at all for the possibility of him pulling up from the mid-range areas because they just knew that he wasn’t very good at it and he wasn’t going to trust it so in theory and this is not something that’s that’s going to be like a fish out of water for Jaylen if you go back and look at his pre-draft profile he was a guy who took a lot of midies when he was with the G-League Knight it’s something that in his first couple of years he did a bit of in Houston and it’s deserted him you know I think some of this the Rockets have asked him to work so hard at these other things he has gotten better certainly from three-point range he’s improved a lot as a shooter i think he’s gotten a little better at finishing through contact he’s worked on his strength he’s certainly gotten better defensively he’s worked so hard at these specific areas that I think these other things they’ve sort of been put on the back burner the problem for Jaylen is that because of his archetype he can’t have any zeros because he’s just not providing enough value in other areas so for him to really hit he can’t have this clear deficiency yeah he’s got to be better and he has gotten better as a three-point shooter as a defender but it can’t be a trade-off of oh well I forget how to shoot mid-range shots and I don’t develop a floater because I’m working so hard at the other stuff the challenge for Jaylen is can he put all of it together and that’s what you know going into year five that you really need to see from him and so in theory it’s achievable but we can’t oversimplify it and say well all he’s got to do is add a mid-range shot or add a floater i mean in theory yes but if he does that then he can’t you know slip back a little bit from three-point range you know I mentioned that 60 game sample where he shot over 37% from three what if that’s not sustainable and he goes back to you know the guy shooting 33 or 34% from three that he was before that what if he’s not as good at drawing fouls or you know playmaking or defending in theory all he has to do is get a little bit better at the mid-range get a little more efficient and he can get to that next level it is achievable that’s why I’m not out on him but it’s a very fine line to walk because with his archetype he can’t have any zeros he’s got to be very good across the board as a scorer otherwise it’s not going to hit at a high enough level for him to be you know an upper echelon starter for a contending team so that’s the bottom line it’s achievable but it’s a very fine line for him to walk it’s achievable enough that I would play this out longer i am intrigued i see this the high ceiling still there but your concerns are valid as well and that’s sort of the delicate dance that I think the the Rockets and Murf Stone are going to find themselves in over the next 12 months we definitely want your thoughts on the KD trade saga what would be the trade package you would want to give up for Kevin Durant how do you feel about Jaylen Green are you out on Jaylen Green are you still bought in do you want to see him get another chance with the Rockets moving forward let us know your thoughts in the YouTube comments ben you know the drill let everybody know where to track you down at yep uh Ben Dubose on Blue Sky the logger line and the Rockets wire on X and one more Jaylen Green plug for you i threw out all those stats he did have a positive plus minus in that 60 game sample as well so even if the lineup data to your question is fair it wasn’t like he was actively harming the team either they were better with him out there so we can we can question how much we can question how sustainable it is but overall aside from the playoffs there were clear strides taken and that’s why I think there is a defensible case to still believe in him but yeah you’re getting to a point where the the time is running out and Jackson as always thanks for having me that’s going to do it for another edition of Locked on Rockets as always thanks so much for checking out the show remember the best way to help us grow the show is to listen every single day on a podcast platform of your choosing and then like comment subscribe on YouTube but as always thank you so much for watching thank you so much for listening and we look forward to having you back right here at Locked on Rockets your daily podcast home for everything Houston Rockets basketball

Rockets GAMBLE Future On Kevin Durant Chase | Jalen Green OR Jabari Smith Jr. Trade INEVITABLE?

Kevin Durant to Houston? Rockets’ trade package dissected as Jalen Green’s future hangs in balance.

Host Jackson Gatlin (@JTGatlin) is joined by weekly cohost Rockets Wire Editor Ben DuBose (@BenDuBose) to analyze the Rockets’ position in the KD sweepstakes, breaking down potential trade scenarios and salary implications. The duo debates Jalen Green’s role, examining his playoff struggles and development needs. Key topics include the value of including Jabari Smith Jr. in a Durant deal, Green’s fit with Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson, and strategies for building a contender. Dubose argues for patience with Green, while Gatlin questions his long-term fit.

Tune in for expert insights on the Rockets’ pivotal offseason moves and their impact on the team’s future.

#Rockets #NBA #KevinDurant

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