ANALYSIS: Andy Larsen on Jazz’s Draft DILEMMA | Analytics vs. Star Potential

ANALYSIS: Andy Larsen on Jazz’s Draft DILEMMA | Analytics vs. Star Potential

what should the jazz do at five what should they do at 21 and are there any trades coming up for the utah jazz according to the great andy larson find out next on locked on jazz you are locked on jazz your daily podcast on the utah jazz part of the locked on network your team every day hello and welcome into locked on jazz leaf tulene with you here filling in for david lock for a couple more days today i’m joined by andy larson i’ve got so much to tell you guys you guys know me by now a lifelong jazz fan is credentialed nba draft analyst for lockton nba big board attendee of the 2023 and 2024 nba combine jazz broadcast assistant statistician lover of college hoops so i’ll make sure you need to know exactly all there is to know about who the jazz could be picking and keep you posted throughout a very interesting time about your beloved jazz and we’ve got andy larson here with us to talk about rumors trades draft picks his philosophy about the draft compared to mine much much more but we want to thank you for making locked on jazz your first listen each and every day remember locked on jazz is free and available on all platforms including youtube at locked onjazz where the best way to help us grow is to comment anything below and today’s question is what do you think about andy’s pitch on what the jazz should do at five and i haven’t heard it quite yet i think i know where he’s going to go because i’ve been doing some parsing through twitter as a diehard jazz fan would and i don’t necessarily agree i don’t think but i’m very curious about what you think about his pitch versus my pitch and please weigh in in the comments below and thank you guys for listening but thank you to game time because this episode’s brought to you by game time download the game time app create an account and use code locks on nba for $20 off your first purchase today on the show andy and i will discuss and potentially debate what the best course of action for the jazz at 5 talk about some prospects that are intriguing at 21 and lastly discuss the latest rumors both in the nba draft world but also in the world of trades regarding the jazz so let’s dive right in andy larson kind enough to join us on locked on jazz and i’ll just lead you off with the biggest question what is the best case scenario for you at five for the utah jazz yeah look i’ve been doing a lot of draft work this year um and i think mostly because i was embarrassed because of what happened last year uh with with the cody williams selection and i mean i i looked at cody williams as best player available kind of the best likely player available for the jazz at number 10 and he had one of the worst seasons of any rookie in kind of recent memory so i’m looking at okay how do i improve my process and i was kind of going back and like hey i got kind of out of the money ball thing right like i i got out of i what i liked about cody williams was that he was such a smooth athlete that he i really liked his brain and how he played the game and i liked that his brother was jaylen williams who was capable of scoring 40 points in the nba finals what i should have looked at though was his production at colorado which was not that strong and i think probably did point towards some of these rookie year struggles that we had so uh i went back to what i did as actually this was my thesis in college believe it or not was predicting which college basketball players would succeed in the nba using machine learning using mathematics and um so i’ve kind of done an updated version of that and did some like modeling with frankly the help of like chat gpt and coding and all that uh xg boost is what we’re using for most of this modeling which is kind of a top-of-the-line machine learning decision tree algorithm and in the end i think i have more numericbased models now that i feel stronger about than what i was doing in the last couple of years which is watching tape and kind of trying to understand these guys more from a well frankly a vibes perspective um so anyway from those models you know cooper flag generally is number one and that’s good because his stats are otherworldly like again he’s probably one of the best number one overall options in the last 10 15 years uh but vj edgecom is number two on a lot of these models on you know i’ve done different versions of these models and yes even above dylan harper um and you know it the the models are really impressed with the the steels and blocks numbers the models are really impressed with kind of the the turnover the the assisted turnover at the volume of usage he’s not a high usage guy um and the models are impressed with what he did at a young age in the tough with one of the toughest schedules in the nation um and so as a result vj edgecom if he were available at number five would absolutely be my selection for for that pick see what’s interesting is the locked on jazz listeners are very used to analytical models and how they’re formed i know this is a perfect show for this right yeah so you’re talking to the everydayers that listen to lock all the time and i’m not i’m not too shabby when it comes to analytics either i don’t i want to don’t want to say i’m great at it but i i would consider myself more of that meme where it says “oh like ball watchers versus analytics.” i would consider myself more of a film junkie than an analytics guy but i i do stats for the jazz and so i am pretty well verssed with analytics and the analytics that i tend to look for uh prioritize a lot of shooting numbers and a lot of usage rate so vj edgecom is lower in what lock numbers said as well as in what my eyes told me so it’s interesting that vj edgecom comes out and in the analytical model that you ran as higher um let me let me posit this as a question if if he’s there at five which it he may not be the rumors say he won’t be but why is he there at five and then why should jazz fans be excited about that because to me i think you’re getting someone who doesn’t have the star upside i know he’s compared to the anthony edwardses of the world he’s compared to donovan mitchell dwayne wade victor oladipo but all those guys had the ball in their hands in college and therefore they had the ball in their hands in in the nba he was an attacking closeout guy meaning that someone else was creating those advantages and he was best utilized flying at the rim using that other worldly athleticism but i don’t see the individual creator are you under the um belief that this draft only has so many guys that can be allstars can be all nba guys because i think the jazz should take a swing my preference is trey johnson as the locked on jazz listeners know but but to me uh vj doesn’t scream allstar and and if you’re drafting the top five i think you got to try to get an all-star look i i understand that but i also think that kind of swinging for the fences is can get you in real trouble um and and i think that ultimately what you don’t want is a is a ballinand guy who hurts you offensively right like i think frankly the jazz have had a lot of that in recent years and and it’s not it it really kind of lowers the ceiling of your team i think what you do want is a player who will take advantage of the opportunities given at a at a high rate you know essentially uh lowry markin at 20% usage is is better than and i know he’s higher than that but is is better than a brandon ingram at 30% usage just because you know you can then distribute that usage differently um to among the other good hopefully good players you have on your roster out you know the jazz don’t have those players right now but i i think we’re seeing the nba change so that instead of having it be so important that you have a ball dominant guy who can score i mean you look at the indiana pacers they are a more egalitarian approach because they have a number of guys who can score efficiently um i i do think you can get yourself in trouble by going by shooting for the stars and and missing right so i would also say frankly that i do think vj edgecomb does have a higher upside cap than maybe you give him credit for like i i think ultimately the athleticism uh and kind of the knowhow of and the the the work ethic the the ability to uh do some good things so far with the ball in his hands um and again at a at a really young age gives him a a window of having all-star upside you know like yes he will have to figure out how to be more ball dominant in the nba if he is going to be an all-star and yet like i i think you can look at some really successful models that have uh started their nba careers as offball guys and then kind of develop those skills throughout their nba careers uh as potential yeah potential models for vj so i i do think there’s there’s some good stuff there where he does have kind of this yeah a role player floor to be sure but i do think that there is room with the athleticism to grow so i i’ll push back on a a couple more things we’ll have to get into this a little bit more in this next segment but my my contention would be trey johnson if you were to look at just athletic numbers which is much of what the numbers you can put in into a model is is very close to vj edgecom he he measures in slightly taller and he measures in with the same vertical and he measures in with the longer wingspan so all those things and then you watch him play the game and he’s his usage r through the roof he’s the best shooter that’s going to be picked in the first round i’d even say higher than conpple because he shoots 54% on catch and shoots away from the ball so when he’s off the ball he’s automatic and when he’s on the ball he creates these unbelievably difficult shots that or he makes unbelievably difficult shots and he creates good shots for himself with a team that has zero spacing i would argue vj edgecom was a beneficiary from other players on his team and was still not as good of a shooter and so that’s where my concern is that on the ball you say yes you you don’t need a guy necessarily but to be one of the guys for an egalitarian approach like the pacers employ like the thunder employee if you consider shay’s enormous usage rate but obviously jay dub has a crazy uh one as well you need to have game to create and his off the dribble numbers are horrible and his at the rim numbers if you exclude dunks are 15th percentile so i think vj edge is is a bit inept as an attacker and so a lot of it is um a projection and and that’s what the draft is it is projection so i’m not hating on the model i’m not even hating on those who watch a ton of him and say like “yeah you can’t teach this.” i agree you can’t but there’s a certain point where i need the basketball productivity to back up the numbers and that’s where i lack the belief that he can turn into that all-star caliber player even oladipo is a one-time all-star but it his injury career was marred by those injuries and so i i just think that you’re asking a ton to see him transform into an onball weapon as opposed to a a slasher that’s a tertiary option whereas trey johnson can score 20 and it may not be the best 20 in the world but 20 points is 20 points in the nba he might be 25 he might even be 27 at some point and that’s not that’s that’s something i’m willing to risk when i’m drafting in the top five whereas i agree with you in drafting at nine and 10 in the past two years that the jazz went for traits and it hasn’t looked perfect and i liked cody williams i was a little lower on taylor hendricks uh because i thought you those are traits when he’s the best athlete in an inferior league at least this year you’re taking a guy who’s young for his if it were to be trey johnson young played in the best league in the world and uh and scored 20 was the leading score in it so i just think that there’s measurables that lead me to believe there’s more success and the numbers i don’t think are all that different in terms of athletics yeah and i think you see to me like yes you’re right like in a combine setting i don’t think the athletic numbers are that different in a game setting in a functional athleticism setting i think i do see a significant difference i agree with that and trey johnson and and in particular in the block and steal and defensive numbers right like i think trey johnson it’s fair to say is a pretty poor defender at this point where vj edgecom i think is a is a plus defender with i think the right attitude to even continue to grow in the nba um so you know i think yes trey johnson if if i have to pick one player to score more points in the nba yeah i’m choosing trey johnson but i if i’m looking at the whole totality of their game i’m choosing vidia edgecom i i just do think like there is a significant gap on that on that defensive end and then i think the offensive side you’re right trey is more projectable and heck my model’s like trey too you know they have him around fifth in this draft it’s not like i’m i’m projecting trey to be a bust here but i think if you are given the choice between those two guys vj is the guy because of all the different skills that he brings to the court and let’s let’s explore that further in the in the next segment talking about where your models what other guys they like which ones sign off the sound off the alarm bells as well as discuss how likely is it that either of these guys will be there based on what you’re hearing based on what i’m hearing because we both talked to different people and i’m sure there’s some similar buzz and there’s some that’s not so we got a lot ahead a lot right ahead on locked on jazz and i’m very excited to see what this model says because it’s different than the numbers model that i’ve ran so much ahead on locked on jazz coming up next there’s nothing like the nba playoffs the intensity the buzzer beaters the fans losing their minds it’s the kind of atmosphere that wants you to experience a game live 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code locked on nba for $20 off your first purchase terms apply again create an account and redeem the code loca for $20 off download the game time app today last minute tickets lowest price guaranteed and i also want to tell you guys about intercap lending they’re hyper responsive so much so it’s different than other places because they’re so much better they have so many testimonials of excellent borrow experience and they’re a direct issuer in 44 states not just in utah they give you that small experience because small you’d expect them to be small because they’re so good they take care of you so well and you think “oh they must only have us as clients.” no they got 44 states not just utah and tons and tons of clients with those same excellent testimonials you can service your own loan be in a long-term relationship with your lender and it’s better for the consumer so steve carter is our personal loan officer for locked on jazz and make sure you call them at 3858008528 and make sure to tell him you’re with locked on and you listen to locked on jazz and you’ll get the corporate discount intercap lending nls number 1 190465 and for more information visit incapending.com all righty welcome back to locked on jazz leaf teen and andy larson here we had a difference of opinion but i think we’re on the same pathway of saying i think trey johnson’s got a higher possibility of being a star for the jazz in the sense of he can score more points and the jazz need that guy andy’s contention is that vj edgecom is a more well-rounded prospect there’s less bust potential and he could still be a a guy i my concern about vj is i don’t know how highly i’ve coveted that but what i do want to know is on this model what what is the guy that says we should not take him like who who is that guy and is it ace bailey like all everyone seems to have all these red flags i’m curious if the analytics are saying no on ace bailey yeah they’re saying no on ace bailey like and and you know i i think uh you know that’s due to a number of factors but i i think uh you know so i’ i’ve run different versions of this model right like there’s kind of the bass model and then i’ve run an ensemble model where you add in different ways of modeling things uh one kind of fun thing i did was create different models based on which position guys played so you know there’s different model for centers different model for point guards different model for wings uh heck i even did it by the bart porvvic eight positions if you will so that’s separates like pure point guards compared to uh scoring point guards right so those are different positions kind of comparing apples to apples if you will no matter how you do it ace bailey doesn’t show up as one of the top five prospects in this draft and you know i think again there are efficiency worries and there are defense worries and and i i think there are frankly worries about how good ruters was right like the just the plus minus numbers uh that you typically see if top prospects aren’t there and i do think like there is uh a little bit of handwaving you can do with how bad the rest of that team was um but the model likes dylan harper okay likes you know him as generally a top five player it does not feel ace bailey is that and i get it so and you know frankly you know we talked about at the beginning of the show wanting to understand what draft analysts in the in the league think i’m hearing a lot more negative than positive about ace bailey right now and i don’t think and it’s been going on long enough and it’s consistent enough that it is not just a smoke screen it is hey this is we don’t know that he is going to be the kind of guy who is a winning player i mean i i said this on the radio last week but you know would you rather have a a brandon ingram type and again i’m hating on brandon ingram too much he’s probably better than this this archetype but like or would you rather have the derek white payton pritch like like you know really gamer eron smith like a guy who really adds significant value as as a offball option and what we’re seeing even from like the desmond bane trade is that you may want to go get that guy who is an all-arounder who you can fit into a lineup rather than the high usage mid-range shooter and that’s ace bailey and when you talk to him he doesn’t necessarily want to be more than that and that’s that’s really scary yeah and so that’s something i’ve heard as well that ace bailey is not working out for teams that he doesn’t feel like he should be in their draft range meaning he’s working out for only the top few teams and i’m not even sure if the jazz have gotten to work out with him because they’re at five as opposed to three which is where he believes he should go uh i will tell you with confidence though if ace bailey is there at five and the jazz don’t take him i will be disappointed um unless trey johnson’s also there who i prefer over ace bailey because there’s just enough basketball skills that that make you salivate like what has the nba transitioned into it’s been wings that can do multiple things score in different areas on the court handle and be defensively adequate and if they’re better than adequate then that’s amazing but i i think he’s got too many traits that i to for me to pass up on but the interviews and the intel is a little bit scary and which is why i actually wonder if he will be there at five which if you had said years ago or you know months ago but it feels like years ago at this point that ace bailey would be there at 5 the jazz should be sprinting to the podium if ace bailey was there at three and the jazz got three which was still a possibility uh when it was may 12th early in the day you’d be like “oh great we’re getting ace bailey.” i still have a belief that the nba has overshifted in this like we watched him play the whole year and nothing until may said ace bailey shouldn’t be the third pick overall some even said he could be two some said he could have a higher ceiling in cooper flag and so part of me thinks there’s a there’s a paradigm that shifted too far about this this concern about ace bailey um and i would take him still over a guy like vj edgecom but i do understand the concerns and i do think uh he’s a a bit of a boomer bust guy but at the same time if if he is a bust is he michael porter jr.esque like is he just shooting open threes and like sure what’s your evaluation of michael porter jr but at one point this guy was the third or fourth best player on a championship team and and i think that’s something that you could say works well in ace bailey’s favor saying his floor is better than many perceive it to be it’s also just an expensive way to be the third best player on a championship team you know like i i think that’s something to consider too is you know points are loud and obviously you can you you become a star through scoring and and there’s no doubt i i don’t like ace bailey to me is actually that the gap between his floor and a ceiling is not that high pretty confident on what a ace bailey is going to be in the nba because he’s told us what he’s going to be he’s shown us what he’s going to be and the the stats are are what he’s you know like he he is this guy and kind of again wants to remain in this box i don’t know that i want to take that and and you know i’m pretty confident he can score 20 you know 15 to 24 points per game in the nba on a lot of shots and i just don’t know that i want my team to go in that direction specifically the jazz who already have a gazillion players who are shoot first guys and maybe ask questions later kind of guys right like i i don’t know that if you’re trying to build the kind of team that austin h says that he wants to build which is full of tough and hard-nosed guys the kind of guys who by the way we’re watching in the nba finals right now i don’t know that i’m seeing that necessarily in ace bailey and and who he becomes because we haven’t seen it so far and he hasn’t talked about wanting to become that guy and that and that’s very fair so final question for this segment then we’ll we’ll address some options of 22 realistic trades in the final segment what is the latest intel that you’ve heard from the jazz at five like we’ve heard a lot of things about charlotte wants wants vj we’ve seen that brooklyn wants to trade up for fears and these directly impact the jazz but what’s the latest you’ve heard from the jazz itself truthfully they’ve done a good job of staying pretty quiet and and out of kind of the big conversations i would say i have heard more about the trade possibilities at number five and and kind of the options that the team is looking at overall with its whole roster than who they may pick at number five which i think is is probably the way you want it to be right like if if the teams know ahead of time who the jazz are going to take at five that makes it a lot harder to make those moves but um you know i do think it’s true that the philadelphia 76ers uh are interested in trading down to number five potentially if they can get off the paul george deal in that contract i don’t think uh necessarily that may not make a lot of sense for the jazz given how long that contract is and how iffy paul george was i don’t think the jazz are going to take that offer but i do think that’s an offer that’s been presented uh i think there’s been an offer presented for walker kesler right and uh you know certainly from the lakers have shown significant interest all the way back to the trade deadline certainly continuing now and him being their future of the center giving up multiple picks to get there that is on the table right now i don’t know if the jazz take it um certainly they haven’t so far so we’ll see what happens with it i think most likely scenario is the jazz stay at number five um you know there have been i think talks with the washington wizards potentially jumping up to get their guy i you know i think more likely is jazz draft kind of who does fall to them at at number five among the kind of top six seven players available um but i i do think there’s kind of that second tier there after cooper flag and dylan harper yeah that’ll be very interesting to monitor so we’re going to talk about some of those trade possibilities uh whether it’s walker kesler does that change how the jazz draft is there a big fish that the jazz could be hunting at i mentioned jiren jackson jr as a potential one considering bane was traded so we got all that and more straight ahead on locked on jazz lollipop is a new kind of soda made for people who love the classic taste of soda but want something that supports their health with just two to five grams of sugar and nine grams of prebiotic fiber in every can lollipop is reimagining soda in a way that’s better for your gut so traditional sodas as you know are loaded with sugar like 39 grams in coke or 44 in orange fanta and lollipop flips the 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and delectable so get a free can of lollipop just buy any two cans in the store and they’ll reimburse you for one head to drinkllipop.com/lockedonba to claim your free can and find lollipop near you that’s drinkallipop.comlockonba and get yourself some lovely delicious and healthy soda welcome back to locked on jazz leaf tulene here with andy larson who’s kind enough to join us and we’ve had an interesting discussion here about how the analytic model he runs is very different from the one that david lock uses who which spat out beautiful numbers for uh trey johnson that’s his preference it’s also my preference for totally different reasons uh he his model also liked ace bailey so much so that when before the combine david had mentioned that he thinks ace bailey would be a pick the jazz should explore if they had the second pick over a guy like dylan harper so we talked about the buzz we talked about the trade possibilities now let’s talk about established players because one way or another one thing i guarantee you andy and i will agree upon is that the jazz need to find a player that can put them in the right direction we don’t know if lowry markin can be that guy at some point the jazz have to find a player that is the head honcho the guy who’s going to lead the way are the jazz in discussions to find that guy or who are the players that the jazz are targeting because we talked about big game hunting a couple summers ago and that didn’t really happen i don’t know if it’s big game hunting or you know medium game hunting but what’s the latest buzz because i think because the new cba there’s going to be a ton of trades because some teams are going to panic and make uh kind of expedite moves and say you know what we’re going to make this move quickly and see what happens and there’s going to be some short-sighted moves can the jazz capitalize and get a star you’re right it’s and and you were smart to tease jiren jackson jr kind of leading into this segment as kind of memphis is the obvious situation where now that you’ve lost desmond bane do you rebuild that and and continue to still go for it or do you continue to move on and and go to you know maybe trade a jarant or jiren jackson jr um i think those are relatively those are possible possibilities if you will um i think trey young is a possible possibility i think uh you know maybe more likely than all of those though is getting involved in as the third team in one of these bigger deals whether that’s giannis whether that’s kevin durant whether that’s whatever happens with the san antonio spurs uh i think the front office knows that the jazz are not one star away and and certainly not one star of kind of the trey young level if you will right like if the jazz add trey young next year they’re certainly more interesting yeah but they are not a top four team in the west you know they they do not really have uh the potential to be a a contender in in the years down the road and and i don’t think that they necessarily want to shortch change the the rebuild process to to chase wins now you know that’s not what austin meant by saying “hey we’re not going to tank next year.” it was the avoidance of sitting guys out of of messing with rotations and so on that they ultimately felt wasn’t worth it given that they landed in number five i don’t think necessarily that they’re going to go all in on a star unless that star is cheap or that you know makes sense from a contract point of view where hey you’ve got a couple years left on a deal you can you know give him uh give him the opportunity to see what he does in utah maybe a growth prospect and then you move on you know or have the ability to move on you know i i i don’t think that it’s maybe you take on someone from boston you know who you know doesn’t make sense for them salary-wise with new ownership it i don’t think they necessarily see this as like hey we’re going to all put it together this year and be good in 2025,26 so that’s interesting because a while ago i mentioned the the trey young’s the zions of the world and i said you know what if you find a deal that’s that’s decent then i don’t mind it because i think there’s a world the jazz are still not good enough to lose that top eight pick because the west is that good and there’s also worlds in which some of these deals you you have to deal a lowry mark i mentioned about jiren if the jazz have jiren jackson jr and lowry mark and walker c i still i still think there’s a possibility that the jazz are a bottom four team in the west and that’s that means that i’d be more intrigued by making it because you’re not short changing the process and you’d still get a guy that’s likely going to be better than any player you pick this year or the next even just because of the way the nba and the projective uh stats are about how likely it is to be an all-star much less a defensive player of the year so uh here i’m going to ask a couple names here and tell me if there’s any world because these are guy guys i’ve speculated the jazz could be interested in and that i would make the trade for so who knows if i’m on the right track but trey murphy is my arguably my favorite player in the nba uh is there any world the jazz can find a way to get trey murphy and what would it take yeah i’m really curious what new orleans is interested in in both him and the herb jones case right like uh i think obviously that makes perfect sense for the jazz as a young player who uh clearly did you know did a lot of good things in a bigger role last year um and is on his way up um i think you know do they want the a a large number of picks because the jazz can deliver a large number of picks uh would they be interested in like a trey murphy walker kesler swap i don’t know that the given the pelicans roster that they should be interested in that but i i think that’s something that the jazz might explore um i don’t know you know it it depends what new orleans wants but obviously yeah that would make a lot of sense if the jazz could acquire trey murvy somehow so on a flip side this is a very good player for much of his career and in fact a player that was on a contender this past season but i don’t think figures into their future drew holiday drew holiday could be a bit of a tutor for the jazz for if they get a vj edgecom if they get a trey johnson as well as not contributing enough to the immediate wins to put the jazz out of that bottom eight teams in the nba to then not convey to the oklahoma city thunder is there any uh truth to that possibility that i i kind of drafted out as a possibility uh a while ago hosting this show and i’ the more i thought about the more i like it look two years ago the jazz almost traded for him right like and that was that was real and then ultimately drew said “look i want to play for a good team and i don’t want to extend my contract with the jazz.” and so all of a sudden then that becomes just a rental now he does have a longer contract but now you’re in a different situation where instead of drew holiday being kind of around uh the the a better core i think in 2023 now you have expiring colin saxon expiring john collins expiring jordan clarkson um that being said it still makes some sense i i’m a little worried just because i don’t think drew holiday is the player that he was two years ago like i do think there has been significant decline that we have seen um and so i i don’t think it makes sense to give up again a lot of assets to go out and get that drew holiday player now uh and i i you know what i would say is that the jazz are not fooling themselves about where they are in terms of this rebuild right like they do not think they’re one piece away they do not think they’re two pieces away if they think a you know if they could get that player a drew holiday for a near nothing price like i think they go for it but i don’t think they necessarily are spending a lot of assets or really many assets uh to go get a a drew holiday because they know that the likelihood drew holiday actually plays for the next good jazz team given his age is is pretty low well and i don’t know if they’d expect him to so my pitch would essentially be that his contract would wear out the jazz would then open up a bunch of cap cap space they would also internally improve slightly and still not necessarily uh ruin their chances of having a top pick uh but let me flip the question we have had trade rumors for three straight years colin ston john collins and jordan clarkson uh how many of those guys are gonna be back or or just kind of tell me the order of which one you think is most likely to be dealt and and is it pretty much a foregone conclusion like it seems to be on twitter they will continue to try and and again i think it’s more likely in the offseason than it has been in trade deadlines just because you have more salary and roster flexibility but you still have to find matching salaries back that don’t hurt you in the long term when those guys are expiring uh jordan clarkson’s tough no one’s that interested in jordan clarkson’s level of output over the last two years at his salary number even though that has a declining contract it it’s still you know there are just cheaper ways to get low efficiency bench scoring frankly um and that’s what jordan clarkson has brought over the last two years uh colin son and john collins i think there is legitimate interest in once everything else doesn’t work right like so you have to wait a long time for everything else to kind of settle down maybe this is an august and september move but i do think you know so colin saxon and dallas is a fit that has been mentioned to me as like a potential answer there where you know obviously they’re looking for a kyrie irving replacement for next season uh colin saxon has an expiring contract uh colin sction’s good enough to keep you afloat and to work with cooper flag and and make that team okay uh but it’s you know it it’s not doesn’t kill you contractwise moving forward and you can kind of try him out for for the seasons to come i think that does make some sense in some ways it’s hard to find like the right salary fit there in terms of what comes back in the jazz though so uh maybe that’s a three-team deal who knows how that goes down or whether it goes down right like definitely most likely it probably doesn’t uh and i think you can have kind of similar fits for john collins you know like the lakers john collins i think is has been a conversation that’s been had uh you know the warriors were interested for a second in the trade deadline then they got jimmy butler i think just contractwise that doesn’t work out anymore uh i think he had a good enough season a productive enough season last year that there should be interest in the league somewhere for him i don’t expect the jazz to get value back necessarily in those deals though all right last question for you i’ll make it a two-parter what is the likelihood that lowry is not on the jazz at the start of next season and then just your your best guess at what the jazz do at five like the way the board falls so it’s a two-parter um just just numbers on lowry and uh what your prediction is for the jazz on draft night yeah lowry uh i would say more likely than not that he’s here right like i i think ultimately the team will still look at it as uh we don’t need to trade lowry markin now and the offers have not to this point been as good as they would like um so i think ultimately may make sense just to keep him uh and he remains a very good player who likes to play in utah like all the reasons you gave him the contract still remain uh as far as what the jazz do at number five i i i do think trey johnson’s probably the most likely pick you know i think that the the like again i don’t want to hit on trey johnson too much i think the numbers are actually very good and i think he can be a very good player for the jazz uh i would prefer vj edgecom but you know let’s trey johnson he’s probably going to be drafted before vj edgecom will be so like trey johnson is probably going to be the best player available on in my model even available to the jazz at number five and so i think in that world yeah i i go to the podium and take take trey johnson and i think the jazz he does make sense for them in a lot of ways too um both short-term and long term well that’s music to my ears and and many jazz fans who’ve agreed with me and and maybe let us know like i asked at the beginning what you think of andy’s rationale for taking vj or or why why you guys agree or disagree about what his model says about ace bailey you guys know we encourage that discourse because it there’s no right answer yet it’ll be take a couple years to have it so thank you guys for listening to locked on jazz thank you to andy larson for hopping on and thank you guys for making locked on jazz your first listen each and every day for your second listen check out the 2025 locked on nba mockdraft a five episode series with the most comprehensive nba draft analysis from nba experts to college experts to nba draft experts find the 2025 locked on nba mockdraft on big board and on locked on nba on youtube wherever you listen to your podcast thank you guys for listening tomorrow on the show we have tony jones we’re going to discuss a lot of the same things but per perhaps a different uh angle from tony from than from andy i i haven’t talked to either of them prior to this this is just kind of what i assume from parsing through twitter so i’m curious to see where he what he thinks and you’ll get all the experts including from andy and tony and then myself i’ll give you on the final day of the week where i’m covering you guys what i think is the most likely not just my biased assessment so thank you guys for staying tuned and thank you andy for hopping on of course thanks for having me thank you

Will the Utah Jazz strike gold with their #5 pick in the NBA draft? Leif Thulin and analytics expert Andy Larsen of The Salt Lake Tribune dive deep into the Jazz’s draft options, debating the merits of top prospects like Tre Johnson and VJ Edgecombe. They explore cutting-edge analytical models for player evaluation, dissect Ace Bailey’s falling stock, and analyze potential trades involving Walker Kessler, Colin Sexton, and Jordan Clarkson. The conversation shifts to the future of Lauri Markkanen and the Jazz’s rebuilding timeline. Larson shares insider information on trade interest from the Philadelphia 76ers and Los Angeles Lakers, offering a glimpse into the Jazz’s potential offseason moves. Tune in for expert analysis on how the Jazz might reshape their roster through the draft and trades.

0:00 Jazz draft options at 5 and 21

5:07 Analytics models for predicting NBA success

9:02 Debating Tre Johnson vs. VJ Edgecombe

13:13 Game Time app for last-minute tickets

15:46 Concerns about Ace Bailey as prospect

21:49 Latest intel on Jazz draft plans

25:46 Potential trades and star acquisitions for Jazz

33:41 Likelihood of trading Clarkson, Sexton, Collins

37:13 Final predictions for Jazz draft night

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Utah Jazz draft strategy, NBA analytics, Trey Johnson, VJ Edgecombe, Ace Bailey, David Locke, Locked On Jazz, Utah Jazz podcast, Utah Jazz news, NBA draft prospects, player evaluation models, defensive impact, offensive efficiency, trade rumors, Walker Kessler, Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson, Collin Sexton, John Collins, NBA trade possibilities, draft pick value, player development, team rebuilding, NBA salary cap, draft lottery, player interviews, NBA combine, draft projections, basketball scouting

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