The Truth About The Raptors Trading For Ja Morant

The Truth About The Raptors Trading For Ja Morant

the Toronto Raptors have been made favorites to land John in a trade from the Memphis Grizzlies but what do these odds actually mean and could the Raptors actually land the Memphis Superstar let’s get into it welcome back everybody this is Amateur Sports the YouTube channel that is completely dedicated to providing you with Toronto Raptors content in videos just like this if you enjoy along the way smash that like button and remember to subscribe to the channel help us on the road to 20,000 subs inside 2025 and today we’re covering the trade drama that is starting to unfold as we get towards the NBA draft it seems like teams want to get their moves done early we already saw an example of that with the Orlando Magic shelling out four first round picks to acquire Desmond Bane from the Memphis Grizzlies and people are wondering well hey if the Grizzlies are willing to part with Desmond Bane at this point would they also be willing to part ways with I don’t know Jiren Jackson Jr and how about Jarant and odds have actually been posted for the potential of Jarant leaving the Memphis Grizzlies and to the surprise of many Raptors fans yes Toronto has been labeled as the favorites at plus 400 if we were to take these odds in a completely literal sense at plus 400 that would imply there is a 20% chance that the Toronto Raptors would land John Morant in a trade and and and to my surprise like some of the names being thrown out the Raptors could part ways with here i mean not as much of a surprise that RJ Barrett and Emanuel Quickley could be traded i I I’ve said it many times on this channel that there’s a possibility that they would be the ones attached to trade the Raptors are big game hunting as we continue to call it big fish hunting as we continue to call it then like RJ Barman who could be the first names on the list of people to get traded just for their contracts and just because like in terms of pecking order like the Raps are really seemingly trying to build around Scotty Barnes and Brandon Ingram but to my surprise a little bit and maybe this is more so on the Kevin Durant front because there are a lot of rumors surrounding Kevin Durant and a lot of rumors even though Kevin Durant has not made the Raptors one of his destinations there are a lot of rumors suggesting the Raptors could be lining up to try and trade for Kevin Durant to my surprise Yakob Purle has also been included in these conversations according to Jake Fischer who has been in the last few years pretty accurate when it comes to Raptors reporting but as much as like there’s a possibility of making this trade happen Memphis have quickly shut this one down they traded Desmond Bane I believe because they simply got an offer they couldn’t refuse i think the Orlando Magic identified that Desmond Bane is a fantastic fit next to Palero and France Vagner and I I do agree with that i think Desmond Bane is an excellent upgrade on Contavius Caldwell Pope who was also included in the deal orlando just felt so strongly about his fit that they decided to overpay a little bit and Memphis saw the value of the assets they were getting back and thought man as much as we love Desmond Bane we can do a hell of a lot more with those assets coming the other way so I don’t look at this trade as Memphis wanting to clean house and restart here i view this as Memphis got an offer that was too good to turn down and they are still committed to building around John Mar and Jiren Jackson Jr so why do these odds exist how could the Raptors possibly have a 20% chance as I said to land Jarant in a trade well these sorts of posts like the the the Dunk Central NBA Central on Twitter they make these posts a lot and I don’t blame them because it it drums up engagement including in videos like this but posts like this and the reaction to posts like this really infuriate me and it infuriates me because people fail to understand what is actually going on in these posts so I’m going to tell you exactly what’s going on in these posts from a betting perspective and I believe I am qualified to do so because in my we’ll call it 9-to-five job my my full-time job if if you don’t know YouTube is not my full-time job it’s a passion project side hustle hobby if you will but it’s absolutely not paying the bills i have a full-time job that does that and within that full-time job I work in sports betting media so I cover a lot of stories related to sports betting and I’m involved with professional gamblers in sports betting so I have a very good understanding of what is actually going on here so I’m going to give you what you actually need to know about these markets when they’re posted so first of all the thing that I think makes me the most angry with these posts is that they are extraordinarily misleading it’s posted like John next team odds or in the case of like a recent RJ Barrett one it is posted as if the Portland Trailblazers are the favorites to land RJ Barrett how are Portland favored to land RJ Barrett well it’s misleading because these posts don’t actually showcase that it is the odds of this player getting traded if they are to be traded it’s odd of this player landing on each specific team if they are traded there could be absolutely no intention whatsoever for John Morant to be traded away from the Memphis Grizzlies but they can pose odds say if if by some chance he’s traded these are the odds associated with that so first of all like when somebody sees a post like this and I saw people who looked at the post around John Moran here and said “Well oh my goodness they’re posting odds for this are Memphis actually trying to trade him?” Probably not but if they trade him the market is available and if they don’t trade him then the money that has been put into that market through bets is tied up for a longer period of time which is advantageous to the sports book so first of all misleading because they do not identify that as if the player gets traded like take the most unlikely player in the NBA to get traded and a year ago I would have said that player was Luca Donuch obviously he got traded so okay maybe there is something to this but hey who is the most unlikely player to get traded is it probably Nicole Joic is there a better name there i don’t know let’s say Nicole Joic at the very least one of the least likely players to get traded in the NBA a sports book could post odds for Nicole Joic’s next team and people could bet on it even though it is very very unlikely that he gets traded that’s the first thing second of all why this is a problem for these posts where people don’t really understand the betting concepts is because I said it earlier and even I misled you i did it myself i said that plus 400 would imply the Raptors have a 20% chance of landing John so we’ve established that’s if he gets traded so if John Mar gets traded the plus 400 odds would indicate that it is a 20% chance that the Raptors are the team that does trade for him but that’s also actually not correct because in these markets baked into these markets baked into these odds that you see here there is a very large amount of vig or house edge if you don’t know what that is it is the basically the the percentage tax that the sports book takes from bers for allowing you to bet into the market so for example if I’m betting on something that’s 50/50 like a coin toss they could list odds at minus 110 on each side rather than plus 100 plus 100 equals 50% 50% chance is what you would associate with a coin toss so why would they charge minus 110 because there is vague attachment there was a house edge attached to it it’s like every casino game it’s like every sports book the idea is that the sports book is going to profit from these wagers and for markets like this like next team odds there is such a large percentage of house edge such a large percentage of vig that plus 400 for the Raptors therefore 20% is not accurate to their actual chances of landing John if he is to be traded it would probably be somewhere more along the lines of just making an estimate here I would say 10% and I think that might be even a little bit conservative if you were if we were to devig the entire market I think we would be at a max of around 10% chance for the Raptor which is still like like a solid percentage chance and and for the Raptors look they have the picks to make a trade they have the assets to make a trade so it it does to a certain degree make sense why they would be near the top of the list but 20% is just far too high so I I feel like a lot of time NBA reporters will take a post like this from the NBA Central and they will say the Raptors have an implied probability of 20% chance of landing a player now you know that that percentage is not accurate to their actual chances of landing the player if they are to be traded that’s the second thing now the third the third thing that is problematic with posts like this is that I wouldn’t call them completely useless because we can gather some information about the order in which teams are listed so the Raptors are favorites and you could say like the RA you could just ignore the odd and say the Raptors are favorites and I and I just said it there’s a certain degree of sense to that the Raptors could trade Emanuel quickly they could trade a bunch of picks that could satisfy Memphis and the Raptors have a clear pathway of making this trade happen that makes sense however as much as there is something to the order of teams listed it is not quite everything and the reason for that is the sports books that are posting these odds are not taking very sizable bets they are limiting the amount of money you can place on something like this now like you might think that well sportsbook isn’t a trade they offer X odds you are allowed to bet X money that’s not the case you’re not allowed to bet an infinite amount of money into a market and based on how confident the sports book is in the market the more money they are willing to allow you to wager against them so for something like an NFL Sunday an NFL prime time game that might be a market where they take on the most amount of money they are the most confident in their odds for that game therefore they will take the largestsized bets for that game well for a market like a player going to their next team if they are to be traded they’re likely not very confident in that and it’s a very information-based market where an insider could leak information which could skew the betting odds therefore they are not taking large bets when they don’t take large bets they don’t get that information from betterers that shapes the market how it should be the reason they take so much money on NFL sides like a spread or like a money line is because so much money has been bet into that market from people that they trust that they know can beat them therefore they are going to move the odds and fluctuate the odds based on the action based on the bets that people are making there’s a big misconception that the sports books are the the know-it-all entity how could they possibly know all this information well it’s not that they know what’s going to happen it’s that they know who has the best information and they are provided that information through bets so in a market like this there is not nearly enough money coming into that market to give an accurate representation of the order of which teams are going to be in now like I said there is something to the order absolutely but it’s not quite perfect it’s it’s a decent indicator of the hierarchy of teams that could trade for the player but it is not an accurate percentage and is not really accurate reporting as to John Mor potentially being traded or somebody else like RJ Barrett being traded which gives you situations where you have the Portland Trailblazers potentially favored to land RJ Barrett in a trade if he is to be traded as I said basically what it comes down to for stuff like this like you see in both the posts here it’s tagged to Bovvada official it is tagged to Bovvada by the Dunk Central markets like this player if he has traded what is his next team these are not markets that are well like I said there’s a big house edge but they’re not really getting big enough bets to actually make severe profitability from markets like this what a market like this does it’s just advertising it basically comes out of the marketing budget for something like Bovvada official tunk central is not going on to BA and finding these lines and post them i mean maybe they could in some occasions what is actually going on here bulvvada is posting these lines and they are paying at the dunk central to post the lines because it is very very good advertising for Bovvada to have this on Twitter and to be engaged with to the degree it is engaged with posts like this get so many replies so many quote tweets so many eyes in it it is fantastic marketing for the sports book that is the primary reason why these odds exist it is a marketing ploy and I would say a very intelligent one by the sports book so all in all misleading because when it’s reported it’s not reported as if the player does get traded misleading because the house edge is so large that the odds don’t accurately reflect the percentage chance of the team acquiring the player and it is slightly more misleading because there’s not enough money bet into these markets to actually shape them accurately there’s something to the order but it’s not quite everything and with my experiences in sports betting and I am no professional but what I’ve said in this video is not a matter of subjectivity it is not a matter of opinion these are stone cold facts these are absolute positively stone cold facts that are not to be argued with a lot of the times when it comes to sports there’s a lot of nuance in discussion there’s a lot of opinions when it comes to sports betting that is why these markets exist end of discussion so like I said there is a reason the Raptors are at the top of this list because they do have the assets to make this trade ultimately I’m not sure they see John Morant as that prize and I think in the end the fit might be like I continue use the word clunky but like to sacrifice Emanuel Quickley the like most important floor space on the team is he the best shooter no but in terms of volume he might be the most important shooter on the team to sacrifice that for John Morant who is not a shooter is especially not a high volume three-point shooter that just clogs up a whole lot more space and if the Raptors are really selling out on a lot of their assets to get a big fish I’d be surprised if they targeted John Morant as that prize

The Toronto Raptors have been posted as the “favorites” to land Ja Morant in a trade, according to some sports betting markets. After sending Desmond Bane to the Orlando Magic, many are wondering if the Memphis Grizzlies are about to rest and clean house.

Lately, we have seen strange betting markets such as this or others where the Portland Trail Blazers are “favorites” to land RJ Barrett in a trade. What do these markets mean? Jacob Gramegna makes sense of them and uncovers in today’s video.

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0:00 – Could the Raptors actually trade for Ja Morant
2:23 – Why Memphis traded Desmond Bane
3:28 – Why next team odds are misleading
6:32 – The inaccuracies in reporting these odds
9:02 – Why it means less than you think to be the “favorites”
12:06 – Why sportsbooks post betting markets like this
14:29 – Could the Raptors actually trade for Ja Morant?

This is Amateur Hour Sports. On this channel, Jacob Gramegna analyzes and breaks down the latest on the Toronto Raptors NBA team from trade rumors to post-game reactions, analysis, and much more. By subscribing to this channel you will be there first to watch and enjoy 3-4 videos a week all focused on this team and on game days Jacob goes live on the channel for a watch party where he interacts with chat, answers your questions, and analyses the game as it happens with play by play and commentary. Join the Amateur Hour Army today by subscribing and consider becoming a member to give extra support to the channel and help create better content more often.

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