MELTDOWN: Ace Bailey’s Agent DRAMA Threatens Draft Status | Can Utah CAPITALIZE at Pick 5?

MELTDOWN: Ace Bailey’s Agent DRAMA Threatens Draft Status | Can Utah CAPITALIZE at Pick 5?

if Ace Bailey is there at five ignore the noise you have to take him right next on Locked on Jazzum you are Locked on Jazz your daily podcast on the Utah Jazz part of the Locked On podcast network your team every day how are you i’m David Lock radio voice of the Utah Jazz jazz NBA insider this is Locked on Jazz your daily podcast on the Utah Jazz giving you insight expertise geeky numbers and hopefully making it way better to be a Jazz fan each and every day it is NBA draft week we are here i am back leaf to lean thank you very much for filling in great interviews with Andy Larson and Tony Jones last week that are worth going back to get also a lot of great other stuff knows the draft better than I do frankly so super work by Leaf Tulene we are loaded on today’s show a new style of star something never happened before happened last night when the Thunder won the championship durant goes to Houston we’ll touch on that i’m hearing a lot of things to me that are bad decision makingaking decision way to make bad decisions we’ll touch on that and we’ll hit the latest on the NBA draft news with Ace Bailey bouncing all around the board right now to start it off um I have to share with you thank you to the everydayers that are out there each and every day appreciate you being there and thank you for making Lockdown Jazz your first listen i have to share with you i’m like in a minor panic right now um I just got back and I went into my files to pull up all of my like eight ten years worth of NBA draft research and it’s gone it was deleted now there are a bunch of people have access to that that was deleted while I was gone so I seriously thought that the Thunder winning the NBA title was the worst thing that could ever happen in my life and now worse has happened that all of my years of NBA draft research and all of the like numbers and this year and every deleted i don’t know by whom or what or how but it’s gone right now there is a chance that I have a savior out there um I been going back and forth with uh Andrew Lambert who’s a locked on jazz listener who built a bunch of spreadsheets and work off the data and he might actually have it which would be the greatest fluke of all time all right the number one draft story of the week is the mystery around Ace Bailey and Ace Bailey for those of you that are new to this Ace Bailey is a 6’9 202b 7 foot wingspan 19-year-old who played at Rutgers last year who at different points in the draft was thought to be either the number two or the number three pick of the draft and all of a sudden he’s got a agent that’s inexperienced that may not even be certified who is not having who cancels workout with Philadelphia and he might slide let me say this first i don’t think he’s going to be there at five i think there’s a lot of noise and a lot of stuff and when we get there we’re going to get there and he’s not going to be there at five i I’ve seen this game before he doesn’t get to five but if he gets to five you have to take him right so let’s talk about it first of all this is the type time of the year where I begin to hear things that lead that are why such bad decisions are made that will be the next segment predominantly but like let’s Oh well he’s not doing workouts and he’s doing this who freaking cares he’s 69 he’s got a seven foot wingspan he’s got like a a a 811 like standing reach it’s I don’t think it’s quite that but it’s it’s pretty impressive who cares let’s remember he does have an 811 standing reach he’s born in August of 2006 he’s legitimately 19 years old so let’s just say for a second someone around a 18-year-old signed him up with a bad agent who might have paid him with his family when he was 15 or something who knows that’s not his fault that doesn’t matter what leads to really bad decision-m this time of year is when people start to get worried about things that don’t matter they are not relevant today i don’t care what I care about Ace Bailey is he’s 6’9 he’s gonna he’s 202 pounds right now he’s frankly the almost the exact same body shape as Taylor Hendris when Taylor Hendrickx came to the Jazz and Taylor Hendricks is now huge what I care about is this guy can shoot and he’s 69 we can talk about bad shot selection didn’t pass all these other things right shot 40% 39% on catch and shoot threes Lester okay this guy was the Gatorade player of the year out of Georgia which is same thing that Dwight Howard and Anthony Edwards and every other D favors he was McDonald’s All-American he was part of Team USA U7 he was a Nike Hoop 7 he was a Jordan brand classic he didn’t have a great year at Ruckers he is a explosive 6’9 wing who can make shots he might be the best pure shotmaker in the class he took a bunch of terrible shots a lot of them went in by the way this goes a little bit to the Luca trade to me you know why you have an organization and you know why you have a coaching staff is so you can get talent like Ace Bailey and put him in an environment to succeed so let’s say he’s a gunner that shoots too much well then coach him let’s say he’s a little bit loose and immature then help him mature that’s your job as an organization that’s what you’re doing that’s why there’s a front office that’s why there’s a player services staff that’s why there’s 13 coaches there’s the thing the the the stuff we’re hearing right now to me is irrelevant it’s also how you make bad decisions as I said so let’s talk about one of them I keep hearing when we talk about Coniple verse Ace Bailey tony Jones and Leaf Tulene had this conversation and the general consensus was that Ace Bailey’s ceiling is higher and his floor is lower okay and that uh the even keeled like Coniple will be just kind of a solid safe pick all right i couldn’t disagree with this more how many 6’9 guys that can shoot don’t make the league like I don’t think there’s a safer thing than drafting a 6’9 kid who can shoot and is athletic like that’s maybe the safest thing you can do find me 6’9 who can shoot and are athletic who bust find me 6’6 225 or 235 pounds I think is canipple it’s big without a lot of verticality who can shoot it great that aren’t elite athletically like on his drafting combine numbers i think he was both good and bad who bust lots so I would argue the 6’9 floor of Ace Bailey is far less does he lacking maturity sure he’s 19 does he have bad advisement sure he’s 19 i don’t care about those things did he not pass last year yeah he didn’t pass last year coach it he has he been such a dominant player his entire career scoring 35 points a game in high school that he doesn’t know how to play with teammates yet yep coach it the kid scored 32 points a game in high school he doesn’t do a great job of getting separation okay Mike I think that’s legitimate might prevent him he might just be Jabari Smith oh okay he’s a 6’10 three-point shooter can defend the rip his offball game needs a little work right because he scored 32 points a game in high school find me players at his size who can shoot they play is he Brandon Miller is he Keegan Murray is he Jason Tatum is he Jaylen Brown is he Andrew Wiggins like let’s go compare all those numbers to what he was in college but we seem to have forgotten that in spotup he was in the 57th percentile on catch and shoot he was in the 80th percentile he actually pick and roll ball handed a lot last year in fact the same amount as most of these guys he had pick and roll last year ace Bailey at 6’9 ran the pick and roll last year 49 different times that’s not tiny it’s not He wasn’t brilliant but he did it some he wasn’t a wow factor numbersw but he wasn’t bad and you can find some guys who numbers are a little bit better but not a lot so if Ace Bailey is at five yeah you might have to take him my guy Trey Johnson could be there too and frankly I don’t think a lot of guys bust who can shoot like that but like I talked to a guy in a league and he gave me his top 10 and Trey Johnson wasn’t on it yesterday i asked why he’s probably 11 but all he does is shoot that’s the complaint bad decisions get made this time of year little Daniel Conman Adam Grant Daniel Pink few other philosophers if you’ve ever heard of him modern-day writers next on Locked on Jazz the Monday edition of Locked on Jazz is brought to you by Murdoch Chevy located in Woodscross and in Logan the Chevy truck the Silverado the Colorado absolutely fantastic one of my buddies who uh actually used to be a coach of my kids in little league Bart Adams reached out the other day because he wanted the 2026 Chevy EV Trail Boss so we set him up with a VIP meeting over at Murdoch Chevy and got him hooked up with the director of sales over there so that he could have a get the good great locked on experience and hopefully he’s got himself lined up with a new Chevy truck coming the Murdoch have been in Utah for over 80 years making sure you get the no regrets experience chevy is Americana and the Murdochs are Utah so it’s the perfect combination in Woodscross or in Logan if you’re going to stop by email me first so that we can give you the VIP treatment that you deserve at Murdoch Chevy today’s show is also brought to you by Ollipop lollipop is a new kind of soda made for people who love the classic taste of soda but want something that supports their health with just 2.5 grams of sugar and nine grams of prebiotic fiber in every can Lollipop is reimagining soda in a way that’s better for your gut traditional sodas 39 gram of sugar in a Coke or 44 in an orange Fanta lollipop flips that script with just a fraction of the sugar no artificial official sweeteners gut friendly ingredients like Olly Smart a blend that is shown to support digestive and overall health gut biome stuff matters it’s soda that tastes like real thing but actually does something good for your body so check it out ollipop with Olly Smart swap out your regular soda for lollipop and find out how you feel without that sugar with a healthy gut and see the difference that lollipop can make compared to traditional soda get a free can of lollipop just buy any two cans in a store and they’ll reimburse you for one of them head to drink lollipop drink.com/locktonba to claim your free can and findop near you that’s drinklyollipop.com/lockedon.nba there are a ton of different books thoughts trusting your initi in intuition think fast whatever the slow by Daniel Conorman won the Nobel Prize adam Grant’s written a bunch of different books a great book he wrote about the different types of people in the world that are either givers or takers or matchers all sorts of stuff and there are a bunch of theories out there on what is good decision-making verse bad decision-m so recency bias is one of the greatest ways to make bad decisions that’s the whole Ace Bailey thing I was talking about we are now worrying about stuff on Ace Bailey that to me does not matter okay if he doesn’t like a little bit also like the VJ Edgecom is interviewing brilliantly he’s okay great and and and and super and matters and if he plays hard and if he know he’s going to play hard that’s great and if there’s things in their personalities that make you believe they won’t play hard that matters that’s a piece of the puzzle whether the agent hasn’t work out for someone is not a piece of the puzzle john Hollinger actually once said to me “If I could do anything in the draft process he’d get rid of workouts because they create a recency bias that leads to bad decisions.” There’s another one that I’m hearing a lot i actually heard it from Leaf a lot i love Leaf but I can disagree with him leaf’s logic on drafting is that we have to draft in a certain fashion because we lost so many games this year that how we approach the fifth pick because we lost 65 games this year changes the way we address the fifth pick to me that’s how you make bad decisions we should address address the fifth pick like it’s the 18th pick or the 27th pick or the 43rd pick who is the player that is most likely to have the best career and work for us the best not we lost 65 games so therefore we’ve got to take a shot here no no if you know that Malawatch watch Chad Homegrren last night if you know that Malawatch is going to be a 27 minute a night player guaranteed going to impact games and win you basketball games as a defensive center and put you in the top 10 center but he’s probably never and you know and that’s the best you then you take that pick what if you know that Khan Canipple is going to be Desmond Bane that’s the comp on a lot of him it’s better than Cory Kissert maybe you take him but the idea that you would alter your draft pick based on a previous event is a mistake it’s how you make bad decisions you kind of go through Daniel Conorman’s logic on whether you believe your should believe your intuition and whether you should like the these are what you should be doing according to Conoran is you should be writing down the list of the five things you’re trying to get the five skills the five whatever three thing three to five things grade it out look at that and then look at your don’t don’t totally dismiss your intuition but just basing your decision on intuition will probably lead to making mistakes based on confirmation bias so test your confirmation bias greatly okay i love shooters i miss on shooters all the time i certainly did this last year with Cody Williams i don’t think that the Cody Williams story is over yet but I certainly did this last year on Cody Williams kind of decided I was going to find ways to like Cody Williams in the draft where there were no players to like and I fell and I and I like if you go back and listen to my talk about Cody Williams my two favorite plays from him last year were turnovers because he actually had a burst and a step and a did a this nobody else was even doing in that draft class and so because I was so desperate to try to find something then I found a confirmation bias to me on those I literally took two plays in which he had turnovers one he threw into the third row of the crowd and decided that that was a good thing that’s confirmation bias bad decision-making at its greatest here’s the other one we cannot draft differently based on the fact that Cody Williams has not hit yet that Taylor Hendrickx got hurt and has not hit yet that Keonte George may or may not hit the fact that we may not have an NBA starter yet in two years of drafting should not impact how we draft this year to make good decisions you have to isolate the moment and the time and that decision and the more I hear this other stuff I get nervous that this not the Jazz but just in general but this is how bad decisions are made which is what gets really interesting this time of year the trick of a front office right now is to take your years of preparation about this draft ignore the noise that is happening around you right now go back to your preparation go back to your core principles of who you are what you believe in what you’re trying to achieve what are the three things you’re trying to achieve what is success and only worry about that the fact that Ace Bailey canceled a workout in Philadelphia irrelevant maybe the case that Jeremiah Fears is an unbelievable interviewer okay I don’t know that to be true but let’s say he is might be irrelevant because he shoots 27% from three don’t make up a story in your head like I did about Cody Williams last year we’ll see i don’t think that’s I still think there’s some like I’m not quite giving up on that yet but it’s undeniable that Cody Williams rookie year was one of the worst rookie years by any player ever and there has yet to be a player that’s had that rookie year that turns around and turns it and and turns it around like that’s Right did we you know what was the fact that Cody Williams brother was Jaylen irrelevant probably weighed into my point of view last year so that’s the game here there’s all this noise going around right now when you get to the 21st pick of the draft it’s the exact same approach as what you do with the fifth pick i think the most interesting pick of the whole entire draft is the second pick because I don’t think Dylan Harper fits at all with Stephen Castle and De’Arren Fox if he’s the second best player he probably should take it dear Fox is quietly one of the worst shooting guards in the NBA i think he shot 30% from three last year like very quietly de’arren Fox has actually never been able to shoot he’s had some blips on the radar but he’s a 33% career three-point shooter who I thought shot 30% last year and has had multiple years below 30% stefan Castle can’t shoot yet i’m not sure my numbers would tell you he’ll never be able to shoot he couldn’t shoot in college she was below the threshold numbers we have for this and I’m not sure that Dylan Harper is a great shooter i think Dylan Harper’s really good and that Dylan Harper is probably the player you should draft with that pick because the other stuff does you got to get into your boom all right bunch of news notes around the NBA tomorrow do the Lakers have to trade for Walker Kesler and I’ve heard all the news while I was out about the Jazz not rebuilding and going for it no one’s rebuild i don’t see it or get it we’ll do that before the week is over also it is locked on Jazz durant to Houston and a new style of star emerged last night it’s all coming up on Locked on Jazz today’s show is brought to you by Monarch Money ever check your bank account and wonder where did all my money go yeah mine all just went on a vacation i am perfectly aware of where it all just went between dining out online shopping and entertainment it’s easy to lose track that’s where Monarch Money comes in your personal CFO giving you full visibility and control over your finances monarch Money isn’t just a budgeting app it’s complete financial command center you can track all your accounts investments and spending in one place so you just stop so you stop just managing your money and start building wealth i think this is important we we talked about Monarch Money and I’ve done these ads a few times it also can tell you a lot of good news like we use Monarch Money and we were really pleased with some of the stuff we saw like where we’re managing stuff until this vacation this will be a joke but um really I think you can get surprising insights that are both good and bad yeah you can find out you’re spending too much money on food delivery you can also find out that you’re being really judicious on a lot of stuff so it’s all in one convenience instead of juggling multiple apps Monarch Money lets you check your finances track spending even plan long-term goals it’s easy collaboration if you’re doing it with a partner it’s all there so take control of your finances with MonarchMoney use the code locked on NBA at monarchmoney.com for 50% off your first year that’s monarchmoney.com code locked on NBA for half off your first year with Monarch Money thanks so much for making Locked on Jazz your first listen thanks to Leaf Tulene great stuff last week still worth going back to catch if you didn’t get it um we’re going to like we got a bunch of stuff i my show definitely got derailed today um because all of my research has been deleted because I was going to go back to the basics some on this draft we’ll do a little bit of this this week for the everydayers out there there’s going to be a little we got new people tuning in around the draft and back to the basics of what’s going on um and there’s really right now in the draft there’s three storylines one is Dylan Harper really going two or the Spurs pulling a trig three what’s going on with Ace Baley my guess is he’s still going three or four i just can’t imagine that he slides and then five does Khan Caniple break into the top five those are the three big storylines as we sit here on this day waiting three days before the NBA draft those are the three story lines that take place um few news and notes sheay became the highest usage rate player to win an NBA championship last night so the story of the playoffs has been that the and the story of the season is that the new collective bargaining agreement has made it impossible for star- heavy teams with all of their salary topheavy salary to build deep enough rosters to be able to win in the playoffs and maybe even the regular season philadelphia Phoenix Milwaukee Denver and that the Indiana and the New Yorks and the Minnesota and the Oklahoma Cities who have spread their money out a little bit more and have a depth of 240 minutes have been able to be the teams that have success in the playoffs that is the story of the 2025 NBA season but what’s interesting about that is it led to Shay Gilis Alexander the highest UT’s rate player ever to win an NBA title so as the stars get pushed around the league to all 30 teams because you can’t be as topheavy as you once were with the salary at the top does this suddenly mean that higher usage rate players are more valuable because you’re not distributing the possessions amongst a multitude of stars on your team and suddenly really needing to have a ball handling scoring guard tyrese Hallebertton Anthony Edwards Jaylen Brunson Sheay Gilis Alexander isn’t going to be incredibly vital to your success maybe maybe I think that at least in this draft puts some level of Trey Johnson i don’t know if he’s really that ball handler but he’s probably the one guy who can score 20 25 points a game kevin Durant to Houston in my mind there’s a little taint on Durant right you can’t suddenly have every environment you’re in go wrong for a multitude of times and not have a little concern on what Houston just got with that said that’s about as good a fit houston’s got its defensive presence aman Thompson they’ve got their guys they’ve got their athletes they have their depth they move Jaylen Green it’s not a problem for them to move in fact I think they’re glad they got off of Jaylen Green i think they’ve been waiting to try to figure out what they had in Jaylen Green and may have just decided they didn’t have something and they did not have a bucketter that was obvious in the playoffs it was obvious all year long with Houston that they could not win while being 29th in the league in shooting and they didn’t have anyone that really opened up shops for anyone else so that’s pretty good bradley Beal latest news still the rumors are he will either be traded or bought out in Phoenix um Houston doing this without Jabari Smith reed Shepard or Tari E’s an interesting pick on that and I’ll see what they do with Fred Vanve here it’ll be interesting so the NBA over the last few years has been working very hard to create parody and we now have nine champions in the last 12 years and seven straight champions that are different and had it not been for the big spike and the fact that they didn’t stretch the salary cap and Durant got to go to Golden State the stretch the streak might be older or it might be OKC twice but as a small market Jazz fan seven straight champions nine and 12 seasons has to be a model that makes you fairly optimistic the griping that big markets are the only ones that can win and kind of over and the final sad note I have for you today that is the eighth Achilles tendon that exploded this year not sure why but it’s worth looking into the eighth Achilles tendon glad to be back thanks to Leaf he was awesome so proud of him it is Locked on Jazz your daily podcast in the Utah Jazz you can follow me at Dlock09 i’m going to try to publish a ton of stuff in the next few days on YouTube on Instagram on Tik Tok on Snap everywhere to get you ready for the draft it is locked on Jazz thanks very much for tuning in we now send you the first ever national 247 NBA channel locked on NBA checkout locked on NBA big board with Raphael Barlo see it

David Locke, radio voice of the Utah Jazz and Jazz NBA Insider, tackles NBA draft week with a focus on Ace Bailey’s potential slide and the importance of making sound decisions. He argues against recency bias and emphasizes evaluating players based on their long-term potential rather than immediate circumstances. Locke challenges the notion that Bailey’s floor is lower than other prospects, highlighting the value of 6’9″ shooters in the NBA.

The podcast delves into broader NBA news, including Kevin Durant’s move to Houston and the emergence of a new style of star player exemplified by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s championship win. Locke discusses the impact of the new collective bargaining agreement on team-building strategies and explores how it might affect the value of high-usage players. He also touches on the Lakers’ potential interest in Walker Kessler and the league’s increasing parity, with seven different champions in the last seven seasons.

0:00 Intro: NBA draft week and Ace Bailey discussion
5:13 Analyzing Ace Bailey’s potential and skills
10:51 Bad decision-making in draft evaluations
16:34 Proper approach to draft picks and decisions
21:47 Interesting dynamics of the second draft pick
25:24 Top storylines heading into the NBA draft
26:26 New CBA impact and high-usage players’ value
27:58 Kevin Durant trade to Houston analysis
30:02 NBA parity and recent championship diversity

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