ALERT: Los Angeles Lakers’ DESPERATION Reaches Fever Pitch | Will Jazz CASH IN on Kessler’s Value?

ALERT: Los Angeles Lakers’ DESPERATION Reaches Fever Pitch | Will Jazz CASH IN on Kessler’s Value?

do the Los Angeles Lakers have to trade for Walker Kesler and should the Jazz pounce on that next on Locked on Jazzum you are Locked on Jazz your daily podcast on the Utah Jazz part of the Locked On podcast network your team every day how are you i’m David Lock radio voice the Utah Jazz Jazz NBA insider this is Locked on Jazz your daily podcast on the Utah Jazz giving you insight expertise geeky numbers and making it way better to be a jazz fan each and every day thank you so much for listening to Locked on Jazz and making it your first listen of the day we are free and available on all podcasting apps and on YouTube all right to the everydayers you’re the best do want to give two shout outs before we start the show got a lot today uh three shout outs one of them I’ll get to later two shoutouts two guys who on Twitter have been great i’m not on Twitter as much as I once was x um but they’ve been great um Art Cunningham I think or Cummings uh Art at Art Takes Note has been super just kind of getting stuff out there doing the old Spencer Keel roll and Chad Low at um Jackpotting Around they’ve both been great this draft season want to thank them um love it when jazz fans are that engaged it’s super so thank shout out to them um on that all right here’s what we got today on the show uh Andrew Lambert another listener of the show actually did have my numbers saved so the draft numbers are back and on the last part of the show we’re going to look at the history of the numbers that we have over the last six seven years and what it means for this players and who you should be wary of but we’re starting the show today a show by the way brought to you by FanDuel right now new customers get $150 in bonus bets when your first $5 bet wins download the app or head to fanduel.com to get started bet with FanDuel official partner of the NBA do the Lakers have to trade for Walker Kesler and should the Jazz pounce on it so Nate Duncan of Dunked on Prime or Dunked on Podcast and Dunked on Prime does this incredible three and a half hour long um mock NBA offseason in which Kevin Peltton Dan Feldman Danny Laroo and Nate get together and basically play out the whole entire offseason and in the offseason they trade Walker Kevin Pelton general manager of the Utah Jazz trades Walker Kesler to the Los Angeles Lakers what was striking to me in this conversation was how little leverage the Lakers have and how few options they have the Lakers may be desperate to trade for Walker Kesler let’s get the first premise the Lakers traded for a center they have admitted they needed a center they traded for Mark Williams look needed a center didn’t get that center then went to the NBA playoffs and got eliminated immediately right and when they got eliminated immediately in five games in a not close series to the Minnesota Timberwolves Rudy Goar throttled them i mean nine points 10 rebounds but was a force then Nas Reed beat them up julius Randall annihilated them 23 points a game in that series so the Los Angeles Lakers the10 billion dollar franchise with LeBron James and Luca Dantric if you take the name off of them take the name off take the glitz take the glamour take Hollywood out it is a franchise that in the last lost in the first round in five games and in the year prior lost in the first round they have now gone backtoback years losing in the first round with the roster constructed as it is they have added Luca Donuch they have made this massive move they need a center that was obvious and they’ve traded for that center in Mark Williams and then rescended the deal and the market for centers right now the free agent market for centers is Clint Capella Nick Cornett Larry Nance Jr and Brook Lopez if he wants to come back and do LA a second time that’s not much i like Larry Nance Jr can’t stay healthy i think he’s really really good he’s not really a center i’m not sure you’re riding Luke Cornet as your starting center in the NBA and Brook Lopez is pretty cooked and so is Clint Capella as your primary center so it leaves the Lakers with only the trade market the trade market in my mind comes down to maybe maybe seven centers okay let’s walk through them nick Claxton of the Brooklyn Nets 25 million this year 23 next year i wonder what just happened i’m still recording i don’t know if you just lost it so the first one is Nick Claxton 25 23 and 20 so for the Lakers to do that assuming Dorian Finny Smith opts in they have to trade either Rui Hashimura or Dorian Finny Smith to do that deal dorian it’s not that pricey but Ru Hashimmore is a little bit and then they have to give up their picks because Brooklyn’s only doing that for Nick Claxton if they get a right to some of the picks the Lakers 2027 pick is one through four protected to Utah they own their 28 pick their 29 pick is going to Dallas their 30 pick they have and their 31 pick they traded to Charlotte that then brought it back so they’re a little limited they can’t trade their 28 they can’t trade their 31 because you can’t trade back-to-back picks and 30s going so they they can’t trade their 30 and they can’t trade their 28 so they can trade their 31 pick and then they have their 2026 pick okay Nick Claxon the next one’s DeAndre Eaton at 35 million a year they have to trade Ruie Hashimura and Dorian Finny Smith or and Austin Reeves to get that done probably andor Anthony Smith and you get DeAndre Eaton robert Williams at 13 million a year seems reasonable you could probably move Jared Vanderbilt though he’s got three years left on his deal so I’m not sure anyone’s going to want that you could probably move Gabe Vincent you could get that deal done for Robert Williams who cannot stay healthy who cannot stay healthy you’re welcome they they can go for it but Robert Williams played 20 games last year he played six the year before that and he played 35 the year before that i’m sure he’s cheap you’re not banking on that as you’re holding your franchise together daniel Gaffford signed for $18 million a year and then there’s Walker Kesler at 5 million a year there’s not another option as good as Walker Kesler on the market for the LA Lakers the Lakers can try to play all these games but if you look at the Lakers odds right now in the FanDuel odds right now in the Western Conference the Thunder are one the Rockets are two the Wolves are three the Lakers are four with the Nuggets five the Clippers six the Warriors seven Spurs coming at eight Dallas maybe at nine we’ll see but this is a team that as of right now is ahead of Denver on the FanDuel odds i’m not sure why but they’re a four five seed maybe a six if the Clippers get them and who knows what the Warriors do but they’re not the Thunder of the Rockets or the Timberwolves right now maybe see but they need a center and there’s no question that Walker Kesler is the best nick Claxton and Walker Kesler are similar players daniel Gaffford and Walker Kesler are similar players and Gaffford just signed a three-year $18 million a year deal and they could make that deal that might be physically a little bigger and stronger though he’s got some limits that Walker led the league in offensive rebounding led the league in a bunch in defending shot walker’s pretty damn good so you look at the Lakers situation the only other one I would throw out there is Goa Batazi in Orlando at 8 million a year but I’m not sure Orlando after trading for Desmond Payne’s making that move so the Lakers are sitting here in the trade market going into draft night in what I would say is fairly desperate situation without a clear way to go get a center and the Utah Jazz who have been reluctant to make Walker Kesler available according to all reports are the one team that has a play the player that they might work for them the trade they made with the clip with the Hornets was their 2031 first round pick a 2030 pick swap and Daltton Connect not sure what I think of Daltton Connect honestly good shooter 24 years old had the great game against the Jazz not sure he held it for the whole season shot 38% good shooter like it’s kind of there but probably an NBA rotation player so the question is I think we’ve proven the case pretty well that the Lakers can play around and talk to everyone else but their option for a good center to make them into a championship caliber team which is the only standard that is acceptable in LA and to fix a team that got blasted in the first round in five games is Walker Kesler should the Jazz be willing to pull that trigger coming up we look at it next on Locked on Jazz today’s show is brought to you by Murdoch Hyundai located at 4646 South Street also located in Logan and in Lynen the Hyundai just a fabulous car my dad’s coming into town tomorrow to pick up his Ionic 6 he’s super fired up i’m driving the Ionic 5 and the Santa Fe right now i’m There’s no I’m not making any of this up for you like the Hyundai car when you do the research and you 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so few things by the way have you guys checked out the new jazz show that they have going on right now it’s pretty great it’s on YouTube or on Jazz Plus um it’s I think they’re calling it um Oh shoot um they’re calling it uh Project Summit that’s it project Summer Path to the draft um and there’s two episodes that are out it’s all part of their like Delta All Access SEG program that they’ve been doing and it’s super He’s got interviews with Bart Taylor who’s super good guy in their front office and Justin Xanic and shows in inside workouts and kind of takes you behind the scenes as they’re breaking down a player i could probably guess who the player is they’re breaking down they don’t say him by name but my guess on that player by the way is that they’re like the player that’s now being most oftenly mocked to the Utah Jazz in the draft yes Sam Vini and Jonathan Giovon mocking the same player to me i think that’s who they were talk tell me go watch go watch Path to the Draft Project Summit first two episodes are out and there’s one where Shawn Jones is in the back and he’s talking about a bunch of players and they’re talking about a player and they talk about one player a lot in specific they never say his name tell me if you think it’s the same guy I think it is okay hit me up on X or email or wherever on that all right so the Jazz right now as a franchise have Lowry Markin who’s a solid veteran piece that they may or may not hold on to that Danny Ames has always said the value of Lowry Markin is that when they do make their big move and it sounds like the Jazz are going to try to do that then they have a piece already you can’t go make the big move and then still be three years away lowry gives them a top 50 player in the NBA who if they are able to bring some another player in and they’re able to make a move that then they’re suddenly ready to go the second part of this puzzle is Walker Kesler he is the only young player that we have on the roster who I am certain is going to be a rotation player in the NBA and is probably a starter okay like if we’re honest we do not know yet on Keonte we do not know on Isaiah we do not know on Taylor we do not know on Flip we do not know yet we do not know yet on Cody we do not know yet on Bryce are they NBA rotation players i do not know bryce’s shooting leads you to believe he’s probably a 15 minute a night NBA rotation player at minimum maybe Taylor’s size leads you to believe he’s probably a 20 25 minute a night NBA player at minimum maybe Walker we know Walker is a NBA starting center rotation player top eight rotation player in the NBA okay so why would you possibly move him so a few things one if the price gets right now the Lakers as we just talked about are a little limited but so you’re definitely you know what is the deal the deal I think a little bit that was pulled off in the Dundon podcast by Kevin Pelton was the 31 first round pick at the Lakers pulling the protections on the 2027 pick so it’s no longer 1.4 protected and some seconds i don’t know whether I think pulling one for four one through four protected is of that great a value when Luca Donic is on your roster but we’ve now seen with three stars in the Eastern Conference how fast that can change so the Jazz have the 2027 pick of the Lakers they could get the 2031 pick of the Lakers and then maybe pick swap in 2030 or however you want to do it the other thing I would say is I I’m not sure I really want to rest my future basing on the Lakers failing they have new ownership there was always a feeling a little bit with the old ownership that they could fail they did have one of the more miserable sequences of the season or of a stretch there so that they you kind of thought that they could but with this ownership they probably are less likely to do that i don’t I don’t know that for a fact but it’s it’s probably true so the question then is are is banking on the Lakers future failure actually worthwhile doing here’s the other wild card in this and you’re wondering if you’ve been wondering for 18 minutes with a blip in the middle of why David’s been talking about Walker Kesler trading the day before the draft is because I think this plays into what the Jazz do with the fifth pick of the draft if the Jazz believe that Malawich is awesome then maybe you do this deal so this is the wild card to me i will say that I am not generally a believer in the yetto develop player developing in the NBA i’m a bigger believer in the Malcolm Gladwell Give Me 10,000 hours daniel Coyle um what was that was that’s the best one of the best books I’ve read now i can’t think of it um he wrote culture code talent code talent code i believe having your mean be developed and sped up that you’re there i I get nervous on players who are supposedly still learning when they hit the NBA and I can run a list of hundreds of them no not probably on tens who have been in the draft over the years backing up to Jordan Hill out of Arizona that went to New York and others Michael Olawakandi who we all tried to claim because they were late in their development they’re just learning the game they’ll come to the NBA and they’ll really prosper and I think that is fundamentally not true that more often than not you get to the NBA and the league is too good the players are too good it is too fast and if you are not already schooled with your 10,000 hours by the time you get to the league you are in a lot of trouble that is my take and so I personally am very nervous about a draft of player like Malawich out of Duke but the numbers are amazing he’s been into Utah he’s 7-1 he’s got this crazy reach he’s an absolute beast he’s a you we the big man as much as the dominating guard ball handler Tyresese Hallebertton Anthony Edwards Shay Gilis Alexander Jaylen Brunson is super important in this league right now the big guy surrounding the middle is as well and that cannot be lost on things we already have one who’s really really good so why would you possibly decide that you want to take the change and go to Malawich not sure why unless part two is the contract extension with Walker Kesler the price for Walker Kesler in the contract extension should not be a difficult hard thing to work out daniel Gaffford just signed for $18 million a year threeear 54 million extension nick Claxton is on a reducing salary from 23 to 20 robert Williams is at 13 mitchell Robinson is at 12 the number for Walker Kesler should be relatively straightforward this should not be a particularly complicated negotiation and if it is then that’s a problem if what should be a fairly straightforward negotiation for a defensive-minded center without who has not shown a propensity for offensive skill other than offensive rebounding which does matter then what does and you’re and that’s not going anywhere then maybe you have to move him so the two reasons the Jazz would pounce have absolutely nothing to do with the Lakers offer to me you would trade Walker Kesler if one in reverse order the contract negotiations are a problem and he’s actually not his representation does not see him in the bandwidth of 15 to 20 million a year and sees him at 25 to 30 then maybe it’s then you you make your move or two that you do believe that Malawich at 72 with a 77 wingspan and just 18 years old and who grew up in Uganda and started playing basketball in 2019 has this chance to be this incredible thing as he started at 15 and now and the growth he’s had from like when people first saw him and he was just completely terrible in 2021 2022 and now suddenly I think he was first seen in like 2021 won and by 2023 he was the MVP of basketball on Borders and then he like had a pretty good year and then he goes to Duke and he actually is kind of dominant and he’s trying to figure out whether he can shoot threes and whether there’s a whole and you believe then that’s a pretty incredible piece so the fact of the matter is the Lakers are desperate and the deal will be good but you’re not doing it unless one the negotiation’s a problem or two you believe that Malowitz should be the fifth pick of your draft 80 dunks last year in college the dunk still matters who should you be weary of in this NBA draft and not take because they can’t shoot now and they won’t shoot later next on Locked on Jazz today’s show is brought to you in part by our friends over at Open Phone i have said this before I will say it again open Phone is the company that I certainly wish I’d known about when I built Lockdown because my old phone was the one that every single person called and still does about Lockdown so if you’re running a business you know that every mis call has left money on the table think about the last time you had an urgent need for something if that person doesn’t answer it you just move to the next one and that’s why you need open phone open phone is the number one business phone system built to streamline scale your customer communications all from an app on your phone or your computer open phone let me manage business calls texts from a single app rather than having it coming into your personal phone separates it all it shared inbox is a game changer so other people in the company can access what they need to the AI agent handles afterhour calls answers common questions captures leads it’s pretty awesome it’s open phone and it’s offering our listeners 20% off your first six months at openphone.comlockdon that’s openphone.comlockdownba openphone.comlockmbba if you have existing numbers with another service open phone will port them over at no extra charge open missed calls no missed customers woohoo today’s show is also brought to you by FanDuel fanduel summer sports are in full spring and whether you’re all into baseball under the lights golf on the green high stakes soccer little WNBA FanDuel is the best way to make every game even more exciting you’re already following the action why not get a little 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of you that are on video um or on audio we’ll still be able to um share those with you it won’t be a problem all right let’s see here is the graph that Andrew has built and what this is is based on the college or college or foreign numbers on someone’s catch and shoot spot up catch and shoot unguarded and jumper off the dribble percentiles how many of them become what percentage of players become above average 35% three-point shooters in the NBA and if you look at this graph if you are able to there are some real lines of delineation if you are in the percent percentile below 30% on jumpers off the bounce off the dribble under 20% of them become above average three-point shooters in the NBA and not until you’re at 50% do you see it level out to someone who’s up at 35 or 40% none of these get over 40% of the players are above average three-point shooters shooting in the NBA is hard but we’re trying to get rid of drafting guys who really have almost no chance spot up shooting percentile if you are below 25% on spot-ups there has never been a player that shot above average in the NBA and unless you get over 55th percentile 20% or fewer shoot above average in the NBA and the catch and shoot number is a little more variable so we will move off that the catch and shoot unguarded but the catch and shoot overall kind of the same threshold you need to be in the top 50% of percentile of catch and shoot to be an above average three point to be trending toward being an above average so let me let’s let’s talk about the top fifth five pick and some of the threshold numbers and see if there’s anybody we need to worry about if you are catch and shoot under 35% tile you are below 20% chance and actually really even below 50% you are unlikely to be you are 20% of or fewer of those players become an above average shooter 35% is our average number so if you’re a catch and shoot guy and you are not in the upper half of shooters in college or your foreign league you will not be above average in the NBA 20% or fewer of them if your dribble off the bounce is below 30 percentile you’re below 20% of those players becoming above but if you’re above that you actually move into some pretty neat territory so let’s look at that for a second dribble off the bounce so catch and shoot is our first number and spot up dylan Harper is in the 86th percentile of spot-up shooting and 74th% in catch and shoot and his off the bounce shooting is in the 42nd percentile he crosses every single one of those things perfectly how about Ace Bailey ace Bailey is in the 40 spot up is in the 57th percentile so he’s okay right on the right on the edge his catch and shoot on Ace Bailey is in the 80th percentile pretty great his off the bounce shooting is at 36 percentile right on the edge ace Bailey fine vj Edgecombone spot up percentile 66 percentile our spot up number is you want to be above 55% so he hits so all the Bailey at 57 Harper at 86 Edgecom at 80 at 66% all of them get over the threshold of out of and my line here is 20% or if if you’re below these numbers then only 20% or less of those players have ever been average NBA three-point shooters 20% or less one out of five or less you’re really gambling so spot up vj Edgecom 86th percentile catch and shoot 65th percentile great passes all tests dribble off the bounce 21st percentile okay that’s a little unnerving players that have been in the 21st percentile in the research we’ve done back since 2020 are at about 10% of them become above average three-point shooters so that’s a little bit of a red flag on edge let’s go to Jeremiah Fears who has been the pick for both Jonathan Giovon and Sam Vicente in the latest mock draft for the Jazz 50th percentile in spot-up shooting okay that is little bit behind where we want it to be below 20% there we want to be at 55% 50% if you’re in the 55th percentile below 20% of those players will become above average shooting catch and shoot he is at the 66th percentile that gets him in the good range off the bounce shooting at the 37th percentile gets him into the good above 20% so little red flag on fierce on the first one spot up shooting trey Johnson 567th percentile fine spot up 50 we want you above 55 he’s right there catch and shoot 84th percentile guys that are in the 84th percentile in catch and shoot or above have the highest rate 40% of them become above average shooters that’s the highest you get that’s That’s as good a number as you can get right there thank you to Andrew Lambert for this great work off the bounce three-point shooting or jumper off the dribble trey Johnson 75th percentile that is the highest single rating you can get i’m going to stick on my Trey Johnson stuff khan Canipple 92nd percentile in catch and shoot breaks the chart uh um off the spot up 98th percentile breaks the chart however jumper off the dribble 19 of 58 33rd percentile gets him over the threshold of 20% because 30% was our number but it’s not great okay so those are our top five picks you we want our players if you’re going to be a shooter spot a percentile above 55 percentile here are the players according to spot-up that you should be very wary of drafting because the numbers say that there is less than a one in5 chance that they will become an average NBA three-point shooter and if you’re not an average NBA three-point shooter you really can’t play once it matters colin Marie Boils Igor Denim Noah NJ out of Germany Liam McNal fouls on the wrong side of the spot up not bad he’s at 43 percentile not bad but a little interesting he the kid out of French Nolan Trayori uh Hugo Gonzalez out of Spain uh Arkansas’s uh kid throw these are all guys you be careful of on the spot up on catch and shoot we want you safely above 55% anything below 35% is pretty unnerving yakavicious by the way is at 58% Derek Queen 25% % Colin Murray Bowls again igor Denman same kid out of the hot kid out of Germany Noah asa Newell might be there at 21 for the Jazz gonzalez again Thomas uh sober out of the big guy out of Georgetown the Arkansas kid again okay off the bounce dribble dribbling off dribble jumpers off the jumpers off the dribble the number again was anyone under 30 percentile VJ Edgecomb Derek Queen Igor Denim same kid at Noah and Senji I don’t know how to pronounce it who’s on fire liam McNelli that one’s going to be really interesting everyone thinks he was a shooter the numbers saying no um Hugo Gonzalez again Ben Sheriff out of Germany I think he’s Israeli kid the kid out of Arkansas again those are the those are the ones to be careful of on whether they’ll be able to shoot and the numbers kind of question whether they’ll be able to shoot on the NBA level uh from our research great work by Andrew Lambert thank you very much on this um Mata Matteas Bazullius last year is like the one player that might be bucking some of these trends and being able to um break through some of these we’ll see whether or not that holds that is Locked on Jazz today draft day tomorrow we’ll be all into it talk to you then in the meantime go listen to Locked on NBA Big Board and we send you the first ever 247 National NBA channel Locked On NBA have a great one

David Locke, radio voice of the Utah Jazz and Jazz NBA Insider, explores the Los Angeles Lakers’ desperate need for a center and the potential trade for Walker Kessler. He analyzes the Lakers’ limited options in the free agent and trade markets, highlighting Kessler’s value as a defensive anchor and offensive rebounder. Locke questions whether the Jazz should capitalize on the Lakers’ situation, considering factors like contract negotiations and draft strategy.

The podcast also dives into the upcoming NBA draft, examining shooting percentiles of prospects and their likelihood of becoming above-average NBA three-point shooters. Locke shares insights from data analysis, revealing key thresholds for spot-up, catch-and-shoot, and off-the-dribble shooting that indicate future success. He flags potential red flags for several draft prospects, including Kon Kneppel and VJ Edgecomb, based on their college shooting statistics.

0:00 Intro: Lakers’ need for a center
5:15 Analysis of potential centers for Lakers
10:16 Should Jazz trade Walker Kessler?
15:26 Jazz’s roster situation and draft considerations
20:37 Walker Kessler’s contract extension considerations
31:25 Analyzing top draft prospects’ shooting percentiles
36:36 Conclusion and draft day preview

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