Have the Houston Rockets already won the 2025 NBA Offseason? | NBA News Reactions

Have the Houston Rockets already won the 2025 NBA Offseason? | NBA News Reactions

we are gonna talk about the Rockets here first because the Rockets have kind of cleaned house It feels like their off season is over except for maybe one thing They have ressigned Fred Van Vleet to a two-year $50 million deal They have resigned Stephen Adams to a threeyear $39 million deal They have brought back all of Jan Tate Aaron Holiday Jeff Green They have done the Kevin Durant deal for Jaylen Green Dylan Brooks a firstrounder at number 10 overall and five second round picks Then right before we started to go live like an hour ago we get the Jabari Smith extension news 5 years $122 million I want to start there before we dig into all of the other stuff This one’s going to be by far our longest conversation because we love the Houston Rockets here If there’s anything that we love on this show and that we talk about more than any other team it’s the Houston Rockets
Yeah Someone tried to tell me that we were the Don Sharp propaganda podcast I’m like “No we’re the Houston Rockets or Portland Trailblazers propaganda podcast If anything we did 50 minutes on the Utah Jazz Don’t give me that we only have propaganda about certain teams or No there are some teams There are some And the Rockets are one rightfully so
The Rockets are a team that we end up just talking about all the time So Jabari Smith signs a 5-year $122 million contract extension And I think this deal is just one that makes sense across the board for everybody What was the number we came up with like if he was willing to do we said I think 400 then we would be into that when we did the Rockets preview I
I assume somebody will be able to tell us for sure I know somebody tweeted at us that that was r this was roughly the number I feel like we usually deal in terms of four years So my guess is we were somewhere between 80 to 100 So we were either maybe a little lower maybe a little higher but right in this range I I do want to talk about the five-year aspect of it and get your thoughts on that because that was the thing that struck me a little bit Sam and I’m trying to work through how I feel about getting a five-year contract to a player on their rookie extension that’s not a max guy right like you give Kate Cunningham five years you give Paulo 5 years you give Fron five years For someone like Jabari do you like the idea of giving five would you rather it be four if you’re the team what are your thoughts on that you’d certainly rather it before I think But here’s why to me this makes sense Because one of the things that we talked about in the offseason preview with the Rockets was with Jabari particularly This is a player that you can very easily see thinking that he has like significant upside moving forward He was a number three overall pick He has averaged in double figures every single season He is still like he just turned 22 in May He is incredibly young He entered the NBA as one of the youngest players in the league and physically like you can see it a lot of the time right like he is still he’s just getting to the point where I think he’s growing into his frame which is really what he desperately needs because he is somebody that doesn’t handle the ball well There are flaws here with Jabari Smith Like nobody is going to deny that he is a flawed basketball player right now Having said that this year he averaged 12.2 points a game seven rebounds He consistently makes shots from the perimeter at 6’10 to 6′ 11 somewhere in that ballpark I think that this is a team that generally has not been all that well spaced since he’s been there I think that getting Kevin Durant into the mix is going to help their spacing really you know effectively much more so than what Jaylen Green was able to bring And I think this is just what this number was always going to be Defensively he has moments where it’s an issue Like he can be a little bit upright defensively on the ball Off the ball he does have moments where he will like be a little bit late rotating around the court But again this is a dude that like clearly gives a [ __ ] That’s always been my thing with Jabari Smith Like you talk to anybody kind of around him and around the situation yes there are limitations for sure but this dude’s a 3 and D big that like cares about winning basketball games Like he wants to be competitive From the moment that he was a rookie there he has always wanted to be extremely like competitive and has wanted to win And that’s a huge value for a guy that’s maybe slightly rolling into becoming a super high-end role player right that that might be what he becomes right there there’s still a chance that he’s a little bit more than that Like I don’t want to reduce him beyond what he’s capable of but he might be more of a fifth starter which is what this money is right it’s like really fifth starter money And to answer your question on the fifth year right I think that if I was Jabari Smith with this contract I would want to lock in as much money guaranteed as humanly possible be it over four years or five years whatever it is right my goal would be the top end number of guaranteed money because if I go and I for whatever reason don’t play well next year I don’t think that’s going to happen with Jabari I think he’s at least going to be like a really good role player But if I go in and for whatever reason like it’s just not meshing with Kevin Durant and Amen Thompson has completely like taken over my role and this that and the other thing and Tari E’s taken a leap right they have so many talented guys that I would just really want to make sure that when I’m when I’ve got a chance to sign a deal this summer I want to lock in the highest number possible so that if it’s five years great But I want to make sure I’ve made nine figures I want to make sure I’ve made $150 million over the course of my career because I don’t necessarily know what my role in the offense is going to be next year I don’t know how involved I’m going to be I know I’m going to be on a winning team which is what I’ve wanted but I don’t know what my role is going to be necessarily I don’t know what the counting stats are going to look like So I want the highest end number And if it takes five years for me to get over that 120 marker I’m good with that And if I’m the Rockets if it takes five years for me to get a deal done with Jabari Smith who is a player that I think has like immense flexibility for them in terms of lineup constructions and is like really important to them being able to match up with Oklahoma City at some point being able to match up you know with Denver in terms of size playing bigger lineups at some point I I want to make sure I lock that in and get that done And this is a number where I think everybody has upside I think that you know if Jabari doesn’t end up being what he thinks he’s capable of locking in at 122 is a huge upside move for him But if he is if he takes another leap as he gets stronger and just can like use his shoulder to bump and then get to that mid-range jumper basically whenever he wants which I think is a real potential outcome here then this has real upside for the Rockets too Like it’s just to me this is like the perfect middle ground for everybody I think
Yeah I I think it’s a fine number I think I just found myself going four years would have been something from the team side I would have liked a little bit more just because we know how let’s just let’s play devil’s advocate right worst case scenario Jabari just like we’ve seen the best right or there’s even slight regression for whatever reason and it’s like okay well in two years it’s going to be hard to trade that potentially right because it’s what it’s still going to be $90 million left on it um over four years as opposed to if it’s only a four-year deal I don’t know I haven’t completely workshop it It just was like that was the part that kind of took me a little by surprise The more I thought about it cuz at first it seemed like a big number but the more I thought about it and you think about what the AAV is going to be as you said I think this probably is fourth or fifth starter Now if he ends up being like the fourth best player on their team I think this is a really good contract If he’s the fifth starter it’s fine If he’s the sixth man like if eventually you have to move him to the bench cuz you need something different because of a man you know whatever Like you’re probably still okay with it I don’t think it’s a value contract It’s probably okay And then if he just like doesn’t improve right like ultimately a lot of these rookie scale deals that aren’t the true maxes that aren’t the Cades the Apollos the you know whatever there’s a little bit of projection And so to me my first thought when I saw this I’m interested to see if you thought this as well is Jabari’s starting next year Like Jabari Smith Jr is the starter for the Houston Rockets in a lineup that is Fred Van Vleet Am Thompson Kevin Durant Jabari Smith Jr Alprren Shangon Is that where your mind went when you saw this number or No that’s where my mind went I think he’s starting I I because they went two for one in the starting lineup to get KD right
correct Yeah
So you open up a spot in the starting lineup I think that Jabari Smith probably starts Okay
If you made me bet I I would guess that it’s going to be exactly what you said Fred Nemen in the back court KD Jabari and Shangon in the front court
Yeah
I think that that’s that makes sense to me And here’s the thing that lineup to me has a much better chance of mitigating Jabari’s downsides as a ball handler as a decision maker things like that than what it was when it was Dylan Brooks and Jaylen Green
He doesn’t have to make decisions Sam It’s Jabari in that lineup All he has to do is stand in the corner knock down shots rebound and be a really good defender Exactly right And he’s going to be I think very good at that And the other thing too I will say is like I think he’s gotten like a little bit better at attacking closeouts It has to be in a straight line It has to be you know him just getting to like a specific spot right
it’s not like he’s driving and kicking It’s not like he’s making all these crazy reads and everything right i just think he’s gotten a little bit better where he’s like “Okay someone’s closing out on me heavily I am taking two dribbles and getting to a pullup or I’m taking two dribbles and making the super easy pass Right
Yep
Yeah And that that’s what that’s what he’s got to do because they’re going to that starting lineup is going to create those opportunities for him I I am with you like
Jabari Smith Jr PreNBA shotmaking was un like the the the film was ridiculous It was silly stuff and it hasn’t exactly translated at the highest of like the level that you would want yet but I still think it’s going to be there Um and I think ultimately that’s what has to continue to grow The rebounding has been fine The you know uh the defense is maybe not as good as maybe I thought it was going to be but I still think it’s good He’s got to be upper 30s three-point shooter
I’m just cracking up it Jabari taking a third dribble was maybe the worst play in the NBA last year from Sedulus I agree You got to keep him to two
Yeah it’s two dribbles Pick it up shoot or pass That’s it That’s what he’s got But to your point on making open shots this year right 38% off the catch this past season on three attempts per game No sorry Uh that is that’s way fewer He was uh 38% on nearly four and a half attempts per game and on unguarded shots he hit 40% from three last year If he gets unguarded threes he’s going to drill them Like I think that this is a completely reasonable contract And the best way that I could frame this is that in two years Jabari Smith is still going to be 24 years old with four years and god knows how much money left on this contract I I don’t know how they’re structuring it necessarily Is it going to be you know even money throughout descending ascending whatever Um he’d then have four years and let’s call it 97 million or something on this deal remaining That’s such a tradable contract I think I think there are so many teams that would take a bet on a 24y old who’s 6’10 and can shoot like this and has like real defensive swing upside
and and for people who I I know like percentage of the cap stuff I’m just looking at spot track and they have it at 21 million and 26 27 and then ascending and it’s essentially 12% of the cap throughout the the life of the deal So I mean we’re not what’s the non- tax MLE that’s like 9% of the tax or or of the cap or something like that So he’s only a he’s only a touch above what the non- tax MLE is going to be moving forward So I mean and again I I just throw those numbers out to help people understand why it it’s helping me understand as well right like we’re all having to adjust to these numbers as the salary cap is going up and and sometimes I throw out those numbers to help me kind of see it and visualize it and understand it Also uh the other two moves that we haven’t talked about you know since the Rockets have done these you know we talked about the Kevin Durant move obviously but um the thing we haven’t talked about are Fred Van Vleet doing 250 and Stephen Adams doing 339 I mean first and foremost like shout out the Rockets fans that yelled at me when I said I thought it was going to be like 390 to 300 I mean you guys were right Fred ended up being I thought that he would end up having enough of a market to where something a little bit more substantial than 225 or 250 I’m sorry 25 per was going to be doable And I was wrong Uh I thought that you know I was very clearly wrong about that I know that Fred didn’t have like his best shooting year like very clearly but he’s still an awesome basketball player and we saw it in the playoffs right like he was their best backcourt player in the playoffs by far realistically 19 points four rebounds four assists shot 43 44 100 from the line You know didn’t get to the line crazy amount of times but in the regular season you know obviously shot 38 35% from three and 80% from the line The thing is though still they are so much better of a team when he’s on the court because he’s really good at communicating on defense He’s really good at fighting over screens He makes life for everybody on the court easier because he makes very quick decisions on the court So yeah I I think that Fred this is a this is a home run deal for Fred Van Vleet too getting him on 250
Yeah I mean I think this is a really good deal for the Rockets right because the number was what was the number before this 40 something right was like 46 Yeah He was never going to be on that
Yeah Yeah No for sure But I mean essentially they took 46 and just you know spread it out over two years Um I mean that that’s ended up being a really good situation for Houston And you know this is why those club options we’ll talk about those later with uh the Oklahoma City Thunder When you go to spot track if you see red that means club option And you’ll see some teams that have a whole lot of those and uh use them a lot in negotiations This ended up playing out well for Houston I I feel like for the most part they’ve gotten out of Fred what they wanted right like what they signed up for completely
And then now you get him on what I think is a very reasonable deal I I will say you know I saw some of the comments like whenever you threw out the 30 year 30 per year and people were saying like “Oh he’s a non- tax MLE guy.” Like I mean it was just very like it swung
He was always more than that Like that’s
Fred Vanble Vleet on any impact metric the last five years of his career plus 2.9 EPM 7.6 wins 2021 plus 3.8 EPM 8.8 wins 2022 plus 3.4 EPM 11 wins Again 2023 plus 3.4 EPM 11 wins First year in Houston 2024 plus 3.8 EPM 12 and a half wins And even last year and what people saw as a down year plus 2.8 80 PM worth 8.4 wins in 60 games Like say whatever you will about the shooting I’m not going to sit here and deny the fact that he had a poor shooting year last year It’s just that everything else that he does is so valuable The fact that he limits turnovers in such a significant way is so valuable to what you do I think that he is a really exceptionally valuable player for this team especially with Kevin Durant coming in knowing that Kevin Durant’s gonna need the ball in certain spots
Yeah I mean I think his load offensively is actually going to go down now Like you can just trust Kevin Durant’s going to make plays A men is only going to take more and more usage Ideally for this team Reed Shepard is able to take on some usage in year two Not saying those guys are going to play together You probably aren’t going to do that but just in terms of the minutes load and all of that And as you mentioned we saw in the playoffs when he is making shots it looked pretty good Like that some of their best minutes were when Fred was knocking down threes And it’s a two-year deal I think this again I think this is an awesome deal Like at the end of the day whatever we predicted whatever you know anybody else I think ultimately once we see the numbers and we talk about this all the time we love just analyzing things that have actually happened Seeing this I was like “Yeah that makes sense That’s awesome for Houston.” Fred locks in $50 million there Um and he’s on a team that’s going to compete for a title Like I I think I mean they’re not the favorites obviously but they’re going to be a team that’s mentioned whenever you talk about hey who’s a dark horse in the West or who may compete in the West who could surprise houston’s going to be a fun name to bring up and talk about I do think we talked about the Stephen Adams deal but again just to note getting Stephen Adams at just like slightly below the mid level you know it’s a home run
Decent and descending Sam descending contract for Steven Adams Yeah like this is absolutely a home run across the board for this to happen If he hit the market he was getting the full mid-level from somebody Like there there is a there are zero questions asked here If he hits the market given the way he played in the playoffs he was getting the full mid-level from somebody He was fantastic in the playoffs He gives them again such a significant value ad in terms of lineup structure that they now have figured out how to play this Alpin at the four Stephen Adams at the five zone defense lineup And do you know what makes it easier to play zone defense now Bryce having a sevenfoot dude with a five on line who’s flying around with his length being able to cover all the ground in the world and Kevin Durant and then do you know what else makes it easier
Amin Thompson up top or wherever you want to play him I was going to say between a men Kevin Durant and Jabari and and just think if you got a lineup with somehow if you could get Tari out there as well like if you wanted to play small or something or I don’t know play a man as the point and then KD at the two or something like there’s a lot of really fun lineup construction This why we’re going to talk about Houston all the time this off Can I throw out one thing just one thing real quick on on the lineup side I I do wonder if they need one more player cuz like I love the starting lineup Let’s let’s go all in on Reed Shepard
Do Do you want guard or like wing
i think it’s a wing cuz you have Reed you have Tari you have Steven Adams Who’s my ninth guy like is it Cam is it somebody else like am I crazy here for feeling like all of a sudden a team who we always talked about depth i I want to know who the ninth and tth guy the 10th guy for the regular season not as much as the playoffs but I wouldn’t mind having another wing that I really believe in I hope it’s Cam for just like I love Cam Whitmore you know in that class but if it’s not then do they make a move for one is there a name like do you agree with me at all like do you see what I’m seeing here
so I I agree with you And that’s why Jake Fischer is connected Dorian Finny Smith with Houston
Makes sense
Makes a ton of sense they’re able to get him
on like a 330 deal something like that
that gets him locked in at double what his guaranteed value was by declining that option They still have the full midle to spend by the way So like they can do more than that if they want to But this is just a home run This is the easiest choice in the world to me to go get Dorian Finny Smith if I’m them I think that they feel full confidence in Reed Shepard to be able to step in and be the point guard That’s my understanding of where they’re at on this Uh I I would expect that that’s what it’s going to be is going to be something like Reed Shepard there is the backup point guard and still they have Aaron Holiday right
i like this is why taking care of guys
giving Aaron Holiday 5 million last year instead of the minimum which is probably what he was worth going into last year if he didn’t leave Houston right taking care of guys matters We’ll talk about it with Oklahoma City later but if you take care of guys they’re always going to really have faith in you organizationally they’re going to continue to take care of you So you know Aaron Holidayiday is a perfect third guard to have around in case the Reed situation doesn’t work out So I love everything that they’ve done here to be able to not only give themselves lineup flexibility with going big with Jabari Smith at the four Kevin Durant at the three Shangun at the five or you can go super sized with Kevin Durant at the three Steven Adams at the five Alpirin at the four You can go super small You can go KD at the four and Jabari at the five if you want to in lineups where you need to be able to do that You can go Tari at the three if you want to Tar East still on this roster and I would assume we’re going to get an extension for him at some point Right This is as good as you can do it I think they to me are very clearly right now my number two team in the West
Sure
I will just say that upfront We’ll see what some of these other teams do Totally possible that it changes And by the way they do have one more thing here uh from Brewin Shout out for the super chat Love the show You guys are the best Where do you stand on Cam Whitmore since you’re high eval on him still high on him or does he need a new team look I I [ __ ] up the Whitmore Eval just like 100% Like I’ll say that just in terms of having him as high as I did in terms of the upside I I wouldn’t have him that high at this point I would have him based off of the way that I eval now versus the way I evaled in 2023 I would have probably had Cam more at like 8 to 10 I would say I really believe in the upside I really believe in the athleticism I really believe in just the physicality and the strength he possesses I don’t think we’re going to see it in Houston which I would imagine is probably why you know it it seems like there’s some traction you know based off of reports for a ch for a trade here And if I was another team I would absolutely take a flyer on this Like I I no questions asked Like if I was a rebuilding team if I was Brooklyn I’m absolutely doing this Like this is a no-brainer to me Um if I’m Brooklyn like I’m giving up you know whatever the best second round pick I have is to get Cam Whitmore And I feel great about it
Yeah I agree Uh you know he probably doesn’t need to go to another team that’s competing right now It seems like he needs some leash to grow and figure things out It doesn’t mean he just gets freedom Um you know obviously still coach him up and and harness him and all of that I still believe in the scoring potential Like I still believe he’s going to be able to score the basketball Um listen I know like all of the assist percentage stuff like the analytics people will tell you he was never going to make it because it was the lowest assist percentage in the history of the world and all of that and like fine the dude
honestly I will say like that’s probably where I [ __ ] it up on the on the eval like I I thought that the feel was slightly better
I than what it or I thought the feel had a chance to be slightly better than what it is
Yeah And I think I remember having this conversation with somebody Let me look up real quick Yeah He averaged a steal and a half So then it was like “Okay well aren’t aren’t isn’t defensive disruption isn’t there some feel and anticipation and stuff to that?” And I think to your point I think I would watch Cam Whitmore because all I had people do was throw in my face Well he never passes He doesn’t know how to pass He doesn’t read the floor And so I would just look for Well like no he passed the ball there His teammate just missed the shot He passed the ball there problem was that’s what I did with Ace Bailey this year as well Maybe this is going to be a lesson for me to learn Yeah
the real problem here was he played for Kyle Neptune and I just know how bad Neptune is and was as a coach and I was like “Oh yeah this is the Neptune like issue It’s not a Cam Whitmore issue like it’s a Kyle Neptune issue.”
Yeah
And I I think to some extent I’ve been proven right there because every time Cam Whitmore plays he is productive at the very least But yeah look like they’re they’re the Rockets are very clearly contending at like the highest level of the Western Conference Now I think CM needs a little bit more time than that frankly And I think it would make sense for him to get to a different team My my hope is the eval being wrong was he shouldn’t have been that high because he was going to be a second team guy where I thought he’d be able to come in score the basketball at a high level and develop the defense as he goes he may need that second team which means for Houston well I guess they ended up taking him at 20 but anybody taking him where I had him ranked would have been a awful awful selection and Houston you know has expedited this thing and he just has too many defensive lapses I think for EA to truly trust him so send him somewhere else continue to be coached up and grow and improve I’m not selling all of my stock but as you mentioned like obvious obviously there was some holes in the eval that you learn from
Yeah I still think he’s going to be like a useful NBA player for sure and I think he’s going to be very productive as an NBA player Uh it’s just how does it impact winning how does it do a number of dissernings

Have the Houston Rockets already won the 2025 NBA Offseason? | NBA News Reactions

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Sam Vecenie, a Senior NBA Writer at The Athletic, talks all about basketball. From the NBA, to the NBA Draft, to college hoops and even some high school, Vecenie has you covered in this show.